Dynasty Watch - Week 3
Posted 9/19 by Sigmund Bloom, Jeff Pasquino, and Jeff Tefertiller, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
The purpose of this column is to spotlight deeper roster moves that could pay off big over the course of the season. Unless stated in a player's write up, we're not looking for one-week wonders here, but shark moves that could really strengthen your team down the road.
Dynasty Watch focuses on low risk, huge payoff roster moves that you might be able make before the guys in your league think about it. This aim of this column is to make you look like a genius to the other owners in your league. When news breaks and the other owners are scrambling to make a waiver wire move, we want them to be upset time and time again that the player is already on your squad.
Jacoby Jones, WR, Houston Texans
What has he done so far
Jacoby was drafted in the third round this year despite going to tiny Division II Lane College in Jackson, Tennessee. He was one of the sensations of preseason, with two punt returns for touchdowns that showcased his open field elusiveness and outstanding straight line speed, a touchdown pass from Matt Schaub that showed his leaping ability, hands, and body control, and plenty of end around plays that showed the Texans know what they have in the playmaker and will get the ball in his hands in any way possible. Jones had two catches for 33 yards and a carry for four in the season opener, but had no touches last week.
Current Situation
Andre Johnson is out for week 3, and while Texans coach Gary Kubiak has said that all four of Jones, Walter, Andre Davis, and Jerome Mathis would get work if his misses this game, there's no denying that Jones is the most physically talented of the foursome. His star was already rising as he was challenging Walter for the #2 role during the preseason, now he will get a chance to seize in moment in Johnson's likely absence.
Spotlight ETA
No matter what Jones does this week, he is clearly the player that will be riding shotgun with Andre Johnson for the long haul. Matt Schaub is looking like a legit QB, showing surprising mobility and arm strength, and more importantly, willingness to put his neck on the line and take hits so the wide receivers can make plays. If he's not starting every week by the end of this season, he will be soon.
Dynasty Upside
Jones is a rare specimen because he showed up at college at only 5'9" 160. He was a standout in track and football in high school, but just didn't have the size to play big time college football. A growth spurt at Lane changed all of that, and Jones entered the NFL at 6'3" 210. As he told us in this interview, that means he still thinks like a jitterbug out on the field. As we saw in the preseason, he has the quicks to get away with it. Jones is a fantasy triple threat - he can get deep, he can run after the catch, and he has the size to be an excellent red zone target and possession receiver. He can be a top 25-30 fantasy WR, and top 20 if the Houston offense continues to grow with Schaub at the helm, but Andre Johnson's presence will keep him from the elite unless Mike Martz becomes the head coach.
Final Thoughts
Jones is the kind of guy everyone should be rooting for. He's the epitome of the American Dream come to live in the NFL. He worked hard despite being at a small school, and told us that he only wanted to make an NFL camp, he didn't even care if he got drafted. He just wanted the opportunity to prove himself. Well, he got drafted in the 3rd round, which tells you that he might have gone in the top 50 if he had gone to a division I program. He is an elite athlete with a top notch work ethic and attitude, and he is only scratching the surface of his potential. He is a strong buy in dynasty leagues right now, and would go in the first round if rookie drafts were held today.
Kyle Boller, QB, Baltimore Ravens
What has he done so far
Boller was drafted in the first round out of California. He played quite a bit his first two years in the league. The strong-armed quarterback played in all 16 games in 2004. So, he does have some experience. Boller has played in 43 games over his five-year career. The last two years have been good for Kyle Boller, as he has had the opportunity to learn from a veteran quarterback, Steve McNair.
Current Situation
Kyle Boller stepped in for an ailing McNair and played very well against the New York Jets in week two. He threw for 185 yards, 2 scores, and no interceptions. He looked poised and much improved over the Boller we saw a couple of years ago. Further, he had a completion percentage of 67% (23 for 35). This was a huge improvement over 2003 and 2004. In 2006, Boller only had two games where he played much. In each game, he threw for over 225 yards and multiple touchdowns.
Spotlight ETA
McNair's injury allowed Boller to play in weeks one and two. The veteran should be back in the next week or so. But, the former first rounder should get more action as the season progresses.
Dynasty Upside
The Ravens have great weapons for a young quarterback. The three receivers, Clayton, Mason, and Williams, are very good. In addition, Todd Heap and Willis McGahee round out a young nucleus of offensive skilled position players. Boller should be looked at as a strong QB2 if given the opportunity.
Final Thoughts
McNair is getting up there in age. The veteran has taken a lot of punishment over the years. Boller was to be a free agent in 2008, but the Ravens signed him to a one-year extension. They must have something in mind. The extension is curious since the Ravens drafted Heisman winner, Troy Smith, to be the heir apparent. Boller is a guy that could end up being the starting quarterback in Baltimore much sooner than many expect and he has put up some big fantasy games (multiple TDs in each) in the games he has started over the last two years.
DeShawn Wynn, RB, Green Bay Packers
What has he done so far
Wynn was drafted in the seventh (and final) round of the 2007 NFL Draft. Yes, he is the "other" rookie RB in Green Bay. As Brandon Jackson has received most of the attention, The former Gator has gone about his business and performed well when given chances. Wynn had an impressive training camp and had a few good plays in the final preseason game, but more importantly he isn't hurt. He has had a few good chances in the first two games, including 50 yards rushing and two touchdowns in Week 2 against the Giants.
Current Situation
With veteran Vernand Morency struggling to get back to health and Noah Herron lost for the season, Wynn has been the complimentary rusher to rookie Brandon Jackson. The second round pick from Nebraska has been the feature back for Green Bay almost by default in 2007, and while some speculated that the newly acquired Ryan Grant (obtained from the New York Giants) would get some work, it actually has been Wynn. Wynn outgained Jackson in Week 2 on fewer carries and scored the only two rushing touchdowns for the Packers.
Spotlight ETA
Don't blink, because it could be as soon as Week 3. Wynn has been rumored to be the next back in the mix for the Pack, meaning he could get up to 50% of the carries again this week. If he outperforms Jackson against a tough defense like the San Diego Chargers, he could leap over Jackson to be the new #1 running back for Green Bay.
Dynasty Upside
Anyone remember Ahman Green? I'm not saying that he will be the next feature back for several years in Green Bay, but there's no question that a feature back will get many touches in that offense. While it is unlikely that this could happen in 2007, Wynn has a chance to kick the door open and run right through it to be the starter.
Final Thoughts
They say that the most popular player on an NFL team is the backup quarterback. It seems like one of the next most fan-friendly guys is the backup RB, especially if he comes off the bench and delivers. Wynn's first season could go several ways, anywhere from becoming the next favorite back in Green Bay to the next goal line specialist or just the next "what could have been" guys in the NFL. If you have room on your squad and he is available, stash him away now just in case he does break out. You'll get him far easier now than you would down the road.
Players You Should Already Be Watching
Trent Edwards, QB, Buffalo Bills - Trent Edwards has already shown enough in training camp to overtake Craig Nall as the backup QB in Buffalo. J.P. Losman seems to have backslid in early losses to Pittsburgh and Denver, and the Bills defense is also ailing (in addition to trying to make up for the losses of Nate Clements, London Fletcher-Baker, and Takeo Spikes). The team seems to be going nowhere this year, and Losman will go down with the ship unless he turns it around quickly. Edwards is a cerebral QB from Stanford, so the learning curve is less of an issue for him than a typical rookie QB. Expect the calls for Edwards to start to come in the next few weeks unless something changes dramatically in Buffalo.
Brad Smith, WR, New York Jets - Kellen Clemens hit Justin McCareins right on the hands for a game tying TD in the waning seconds of the 20-13 loss to Baltimore. McCareins dropped both, one when he was wide open. His opportunities to let games go through his hands should come to a screeching halt after that performance, opening the door for 2nd year QB to WR convert Brad Smith to step up into the 3rd wide receiver role. Smith is a dynamic runner in the open field, and he's also a threat to throw a TD or break a long run on gadget plays. Rookie Chansi Stuckey looked like a contender to get targets in preseason, but he has landed on the IR.
Selvin Young, RB, Denver Broncos - The rookie from Texas turned heads in training camp and has worked his way into the backup running back job in Denver. Most fantasy owners recognize that position as one with lots of potential. Young's running style fits the Bronco scheme perfectly. The former Longhorn has carried over his strong preseason in the season. In four preseason games, he averaged 4.9 yards per carry on 34 carries. In the regular season, he already has a 40-yard run from scrimmage. Starter Travis Henry is not known for playing all 16 games so Selvin Young is a player who could lead many fantasy teams to the playoffs.
J.T. O'Sullivan, QB, Detroit Lions - The five-year pro has bounced around a myriad of teams. The former California Davis star excelled in NFL Europa this past offseason. He is now the backup quarterback in one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL. O'Sullivan came into the week two game for a concussed Jon Kitna and looked shaky. He did throw for 148 yards in the limited action. Jon Kitna is getting older and taking a lot of punishment, which is normal for passers in Mike Martz offenses. If O'Sullivan gets a start, or two, he can easily be a top ten quarterback in that offense.
Glenn Holt, WR, Cincinnati Bengals - Lost in the slugfest that was the 51-45 Week 2 victory over the Cleveland Browns was a very good performance by Glenn Holt for the Bengals. Chris Henry is arguably the best third WR in the NFL, but with him suspended for half of the year many wondered who, if anyone, would fill his shoes in September and October. Tab Perry seemed like a good choice, but he was hurt early last Sunday and Holt came on in his stead. Holt delivered a very good game in catching all five balls that came his way, picking up first downs on all of them and scoring on his fifth catch for his first NFL touchdown. Carson Palmer loves to hit his WRs, so you need to take note of him and get him on your team in case this is the first step in a big career for Holt.
Jarret Johnson, LB, Baltimore Ravens - Johnson was the Baltimore Raven who received the unenviable role of replacing Adalius Thomas, or at least filling his position on the depth chart. Johnson has adjusted to the bigger role in the Ravens' strong defense, covering a larger swath of land than most strong side ("SAM") linebackers are usually asked to cover. He has contributed 11 tackles (8 solo) along with a sack and a forced fumble in his first two games. Johnson has helped out mostly in run support and being a disruptive force when applicable and with Ray Lewis at less than 100% more tackles are available for Johnson. Also, if your league still has him listed as a defensive end (his designation in 2006), then you have an added bonus of getting LB stats for a DE.
