Dynasty Watch - Week 17
Posted 12/26 by Jeff Tefertiller, Sigmund Bloom, and Jeff Pasquino, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
The purpose of this column is to spotlight deeper roster moves that could pay off big over the course of the season. Unless stated in a player's write up, we're not looking for one-week wonders here, but shark moves that could really strengthen your team down the road.
Dynasty Watch focuses on low risk, huge payoff roster moves that you might be able make before the guys in your league think about it. This aim of this column is to make you look like a genius to the other owners in your league. When news breaks and the other owners are scrambling to make a waiver wire move, we want them to be upset time and time again that the player is already on your squad.
T.J. Duckett, RB, Detroit Lions
What has he done so far
The former eighteenth overall pick has been a disappointment for most of his career. Many fans think the Falcons misused the big back. In Atlanta, he was drafted to complement Warrick Dunn. Duckett has only rushed more than 130 times in a season once in his career. He has accumulated 2,613 rushing yards and 36 touchdowns in the six-year career.
Current Situation
T.J. Duckett is an impending free agent, but the Detroit Lions were trying to re-sign the local product, even before the injury to Kevin Jones. Reports out note that Jones tore his ACL in the week sixteen game. There is little running back depth in Detroit and Duckett could be the unquestioned starter early in the 2008 season.
Spotlight ETA
The first round pick of the Atlanta Falcons is still a young running back. The big back is only 26 years old. The former Michigan State Spartan was drafted in the 2002 NFL Draft. He has been playing well since joining the Detroit Lions. In fact, the 6'0", 254-pound ball carrier is averaging 5.9 yards per carry. His career average is 4.1 yards per carry. T.J. Duckett has been used as a complementary back for most of his career and will be making just his 14th start of his career in week seventeen.
Dynasty Upside
In the Detroit offense, Duckett has the potential to be a top 20 running back. He is a nimble back for his size and is more of a finesse ball carrier than a power back. With the threat of the pass for the Lions, there is running room for the running back. The week sixteen game gave an indication as to the potential of Duckett. He rushed 15 times for 102 yards and a touchdown, including a 55-yard run. He also caught a pair of balls for 22 yards. Yes, this was against the Kansas City Chief porous run defense, but the former Spartan looked good.
Final Thoughts
Duckett has never had more than 780 rushing yards in a season. He is a running back that is best used with either limited carries or for a small window of time. He has only played all 16 games once in his career. But, Duckett can help many fantasy owners in spot duty for the 2008 season, if he remains in Detroit.
Musa Smith, RB, Baltimore Ravens
What has he done so far
Musa Smith has been in Baltimore since 2003 since being drafted by the Ravens in the third round of the NFL draft. He has missed time in every season with a multitude of injuries, dominated by a broken leg in 2004 that also cost him half of 2005, followed by a neck injury last year. Finally healthy, Smith was expected to contribute as the backup to Willis McGahee this year, a role he has filled adequately with 365 combined yards on 77 touches and a touchdown. Smith has been utilized more on passing downs as 24 of his touches were receptions out of the backfield.
Current Situation
Smith has not had many chances this season, as Willis McGahee had taken most of the snaps for the Ravens as the feature back in Baltimore. That all changed in Week 16 as McGahee broke two ribs and was out of action early in the game against Seattle, thrusting both Smith and Mike Anderson into action. Anderson is also at less than full strength after the game, so it appears that Smith may get the start in the season finale against the Steelers. This could be the chance that Smith has been waiting for, as he is a free agent once again this offseason.
Spotlight ETA
Smith may get his first career start this Sunday against Pittsburgh, which is not the best of matchups, but when it is an NFL chance it is an NFL chance. Several running backs have had similar auditions in such a manner, including Chester Taylor and Priest Holmes who were both backup rushers in Baltimore. Smith could get the bulk of the work as Mike Anderson is nursing a sore quadriceps muscle and may not be healthy enough to contribute.
Dynasty Upside
Smith is a seasoned NFL veteran who runs hard with good size and power. He can get to the hole quickly and also has good moves in the open field, especially for a guy of his size (6'0", 232). With his contract up after Week 17, the game against the Steelers is Smith's opportunity to make a lasting impression with all 32 NFL general managers, including both that should be watching the game intently. Pittsburgh is one of several teams that will need RB help for 2008, and with Smith's abilities as both a rusher and a receiver he could find employment as a backup or even a role player in another backfield next year.
Final Thoughts
Musa Smith, this is your life! Seriously, some NFL backs never get this chance, so it is up to him to make the most of it. Smith could move up from a perennial backup and special teams contributor to get himself into some team's 2008 training camp with the chance to compete to be a starter. There are several openings next year, but with so many rookies heading into the league next season via the NFL Draft that Smith will have to make a lasting impression this week to maximize his value for next season. Even if he does not excel on Sunday, Smith has done enough to get another invitation to return to the Ravens for next season as the backup for McGahee.
Clinton Hart, SS, San Diego Chargers
What has he done so far
Hart is in his fifth NFL season, and his fourth with the Chargers. He was an undrafted free agent out Central Florida Community College and was traded from Philly to San Diego in his second season. He has been a backup for his first three seasons, and finally took over the starting role this season.
Current Situation
Hart has set career best numbers in all major categories and is currently #3 in total tackles with the Chargers. To Date he has 59 solo tackles, 17 assists, 1 sack, 5 INTs, and 9 pass defenses. He currently ranks 20th among fantasy DBs and has performed well over the last three games with 12 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 sack, 2 INTs and 4 PDs.
Spotlight ETA
Next season is going to be a big one for Hart. He'll be in his second full season as a starter for the Chargers, and his contract will be up at the end of 2008. He'll be playing hard to land a big contract or head to the free agent market after next season.
Dynasty Upside
Hart is probably a free agent pickup in most leagues right now. He's come on strong down the stretch for the Chargers and will probably finish in the top 20 for fantasy DBs That makes him a starter in most leagues and gives him a nice upside going into next season. He's had a few 10+ tackles games, but he's also turned in a couple with just a tackle and an assist. With a full season under his belt, we should see less of the downside games from him next year.
Final Thoughts
At this point, Hart should be an easy pickup in most leagues. He's done well, but has just not been consistent enough to be a starter on most teams. He's come on strong as of late, but his interceptions have inflated his value over the last couple weeks. San Diego has quietly put together a 10 win season and the defense is starting to get better and better. With the playoffs coming, and 2008 just around the corner, Hart will be an excellent guy to grab for your roster who could pay nice dividends for 2008.
Players You Should Already Be Watching
Devin Aromashodu, WR, Indianapolis Colts
Aromashodu was first drafted by the Miami Dolphins in the seventh and final round of the 2006 NFL Draft, mostly due to his speed (4.35 40-time) and size (6'2", 203). He did not show much at Auburn but displayed enough raw skill at the combine to have him on a few Top 10 WR prospects for the 2006 class (which was regarded as pretty lean). Aromashodu did not make it through Dolphins training camp as a rookie, where he was one of the final cuts before the season. Indianapolis got a whiff of his abilities and liked what they smelled, placing him on their practice squad, where he remained for all of the 2006 playoffs and into the 2007 season. Once Marvin Harrison was injured and other wide receivers (Roy Hall, Anthony Gonzalez) struggled to stay healthy he was promoted to the active roster in November. Aromashodu has caught 6 of 11 targets for 89 yards in the past four weeks, and with the Colts playing many backups in Week 17 he could get a number of chances. Long term, any wideout is worth rostering in deep Dynasty Leagues with Peyton Manning as their quarterback. There is also no guarantee that Marvin Harrison will ever recover to the player he once was, and the Colts love to use three wide receiver sets. Take a long look at him on Sunday and see if there is a sweet smell of success out of Aromashodu.
Darren Stone, S, Atlanta Falcons
Stone was drafted in the sixth round of the 2007 NFL Draft by the Atlanta Falcons, a pick that was rather unnoticed by many this year. The safety from Maine has appreciable size (6'3", 221) and speed (4.47) and was an impressive contributor at both the East West Shrine Game and also the NFL Combine. Stone has the skills to play all four defensive back positions, but most importantly is that the Falcons' current SS is Lawyer Milloy. Milloy is injured for Week 17 and will be out, giving Stone his first NFL start. If Milloy plays well against Seattle, the young safety may push to start for 2008. Whoever becomes the new coach in Atlanta will want to take stock of the whole organization, but Stone could become the starter as soon as 2008 if he is ready. The worst case for Stone would be a one-year wait, as Milloy is now 34 years old and has just one year left on his deal ($1.6M for 2008).
Dominic Rhodes, RB, Oakland Raiders
The former Indianapolis Colt had a great game in week sixteen. He carried the ball 27 times for 115 yards. He also caught half of his four targets for nine yards. In 2006, Rhodes finished the season as the 33rd ranked back, even while splitting time with rookie Joseph Addai. The former star of Midwestern State (Texas) has a chance to start in 2008 with Justin Fargas a free agent and Lamont Jordan not playing well.
Verron Haynes, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers
The veteran running back was re-signed this week to replace Willie Parker. Haynes has been a member of the Steelers since 2002. He is a versatile back that will see a lot of time during the playoffs. Haynes has only 174 carries and 57 receptions in 58 career games. With Parker and Davenport nicked up, Haynes should see extended time the remainder of 2007.
Fred Bennett, CB, Houston Texans
Bennett has been on fire the last couple weeks for the Texans. Over the last 5 games he has 35 solo tackles, 4 assists, 2 INTs and 7 pass defenses. He's currently #3 on the FBG 'Who's Hot' list as he heads into his final game this season. He was a 4th round pick (123rd overall) from South Carolina for the Texans this year and he is showing excellent upside heading into the off season. Keep an eye on this kid for 2008.
Brandon McGowen, SS, Chicago Bears
Mike Brown hasn't played a full season for Chicago since 2003. With Brown injured again this season, the Bears turned to Adam Archuleta and McGowen for help at the safety position. Archuleta was performing well for part of the season, but McGowen has clearly surpassed him over the last four games. Since taking over as the starter against the Giants in week 13, McGowen has 23 solo tackles, 5 assists and 1 INT. This position is going to be a crap shoot for the Bears in 2008, but for now, McGowen is the guy that is proving he can hold down the starting job. Keep an eye on him this off season.
