Dynasty Watch - Week 16
Posted 12/19 by Jeff Tefertiller, Sigmund Bloom, and Jeff Pasquino, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
The purpose of this column is to spotlight deeper roster moves that could pay off big over the course of the season. Unless stated in a player's write up, we're not looking for one-week wonders here, but shark moves that could really strengthen your team down the road.
Dynasty Watch focuses on low risk, huge payoff roster moves that you might be able make before the guys in your league think about it. This aim of this column is to make you look like a genius to the other owners in your league. When news breaks and the other owners are scrambling to make a waiver wire move, we want them to be upset time and time again that the player is already on your squad.
Troy Smith, QB, Baltimore Ravens
What has he done so far
After driving in for a garbage time TD at the end of the week 14 massacre at the hands of Indy, Smith got his first meaningful NFL action when Kyle Boller suffered a concussion in the 4th quarter vs. Miami. Smith was unable to move the Ravens on his first drive, but his first two minute drill was a success. Smith came *this close* to driving the Ravens to a game-winning TD, but Brian Billick elected to go for the game tying field goal on 4th and goal at the 1 instead of the win.
Current Situation
Steve McNair might return next year, but his days as a starting NFL QB should be over. Even if they are not, he will eventually return to the bench or injured reserve if this year is any indication of the future. Boller is under contract next year, but his play has been uneven and he doesn't seem to have the confidence of the team or organization. There are few obstacles to significant playing time for Smith in the future.
Spotlight ETA
Smith should get a chance to become the starter at some point next year unless the Ravens do something crazy like get Derek Anderson back by signing him to an astronomical offer sheet.
Dynasty Upside
Smith could at least be a decent low end QB2 based on his performances at Ohio State. He ran for 11 TD and over 600 yards in 2005, so you know he can be productive with his feet, and he threw for 30 TDs in 2006 (including some legit NFL bombs to Ted Ginn). Other than running ability and a good deep ball, Smith also possesses great zip on his short/intermediate passes, and he was a winner and a leader during his college days. He's worth rostering in all leagues with at least moderately deep rosters, and a must own in start-two QB leagues.
Final Thoughts
Smith was cool and composed on his would-be game winning drive in Miami, showing good timing, a quick release, elusiveness in the pocket, and no trouble finding receivers despite being less than six feet tall. Many wrote Smith off when he fell to the 5th round, but many current starting QBs have even worse draft slots, if they were even drafted at all. At this moment, he's the only real hope on the roster that QB play will improve in Baltimore next year.
Kevin Boss, TE, New York Giants
What has he done so far
Boss was drafted out of Western Oregon on Day 2 (Round 5) of the 2007 NFL Draft by the New York Giants. He hasn't done much yet as Jeremy Shockey is by far and away the primary tight end for the Giants, but Boss has seen limited work in his first season, catching three of five targets prior to last week's game vs. Washington. He had only one target for the first eight weeks of the season, but has had at least one target in all but one game since the Giants' bye week.
Current Situation
With Shockey out for the rest of the year with a broken leg, Boss now becomes the starter for the Giants. That's an important role for that offense and QB Eli Manning will be looking to him right away. Boss had two catches for 31 yards and a touchdown last Sunday night (vs. the Redskins, Week 15) on three targets - all season highs for Boss. It was his best night of his young career, highlighted by his first NFL touchdown.
Spotlight ETA
Sunday against Buffalo will Boss's first NFL start. He won't see every snap as the Giants can spell him with another rookie - Michael Matthews from Georgia Tech - but there is not much else on the depth chart to look at for New York. Considering how big a factor that the tight end is for the Giants' style of offense and that Plaxico Burress is injured and the rest of Manning's targets seemed to be allergic to making catches of late, Boss has a good chance to contribute quickly for the Giants.
Dynasty Upside
Let's be clear here - Jeremy Shockey is a Pro Bowl caliber tight end and he's the #1 starter when he's healthy. That is an issue and the biggest concern - his health. The Giants drafted Boss because they are concerned about all the mileage Shockey has on his 27-year old body at this point. Grabbing 371 catches over six years and banging into linebackers and safeties in the NFC East takes its toll. Shockey is tough, but he won't last forever - so a replacement or backup plan makes a lot of sense.
Final Thoughts
Jeremy Shockey is locked up as the starter for the Giants through 2011, when he would be 31 years old in August just before the season. Will he last that long is the question, and so is his price point. His five-year contract was signed during the 2005 campaign but the base salary jumps from $595,000 in 2007 to $2,250,000 in 2008 (and over $3 Million in 2009). That might be fine, but there is an outside chance of two things happening between now and next September. First, Shockey may not fare well in his leg surgery or his rehab process and may miss some of training camp (or longer). Kevin Boss himself, in addition to Shockey, could weigh in and perform very well over the next two weeks and at least one playoff game (likely) to show that he should get some more chances and playing time in 2008. While he doesn't seem to be pushing Shockey for that role just yet, stranger things have happened. Keep an eye on him in December and January.
Laurent Robinson, WR, Atlanta Falcons
What has he done so far
He caught one of his two pass targets for eighteen yards in the week fifteen game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. This production actually led the Falcons in receiving for the game. On the season, the rookie has 29 receptions for 312 yards. The last few games have displayed the 22-year old's big play ability. In week fourteen, Robinson grabbed three of his four targets for 48 yards. He has eclipsed forty receiving yards in a game three times so far this season. That is saying something with the anemic quarterback play of the Falcons.
Current Situation
Robinson is one of several young receivers on the Falcons. Joe Horn will probably not be back in Atlanta in 2008. He signed a four-year contract worth nineteen million dollars this past offseason. Joe Horn will be 36 years old in January. He should be playing elsewhere next season. This leaves just Michael Jenkins and Roddy White at receiver.
Spotlight ETA
The third round pick of the 2007 NFL Draft has been affected by the inconsistent quarterback play. The former Illinois State star is a physically gifted athlete and will be a good receiver in the coming years. Depending on the coaching staff, and starting passer, the rookie could be starting for the Falcons in 2008.
Dynasty Upside
After the week eleven game, coach Bobby Petrino praised Robinson as the team's best route runner. The 22 year old is very athletic. He is 6'2" and weighs 195 pounds. Add in good speed and the ability to run good routes and there is good potential for the rookie. He has a definite chance at breaking the top twenty receivers. The new coaching staff and their choice of offensive system and quarterback will influence Robinson's upside.
Final Thoughts
Laurent Robinson is a great receiver to have in dynasty leagues. He offers a lot of potential, but cannot be relied upon for probably a year. Rookie receivers require patience from fantasy owners. Robinson could reward the patience. He is a gifted receiver and could be a factor as early as the 2008 season.
Players You Should Already Be Watching
Dominic Rhodes, RB, Oakland Raiders
Just when you were about to completely give up on Rhodes, he's back, and he might be an important fantasy RB in week 16 and 17. Justin Fargas is sidelined for the remainder of the year with a knee injury, so Rhodes will vie with LaMont Jordan to start this week. Fargas is a free agent, and Jordan is likely to be cut, so 2008 opportunity could fall into Rhodes lap if things break right. Rhodes is due a decent chunk of money himself in 08, so he could be cut, but he looked like a more than competent RB last week vs. Indy (just as he did during 2006 while he was in Indy), and with the rate of RB injuries, it would not be shocking to see him a get a shot somewhere. He's worth carrying over the offseason. in deep leagues just to see where he ends up.
Darren Sproles, RB, San Diego Chargers
We all got a glimpse of the future after Michael Turner injured his shoulder just as he was going to get to run roughshod over a demoralized Lions team. Sproles ended up with 25 carries for 122 yards and a pair of TDs, showing that he's not just a novelty player. Sproles' Little Train James impression should earn him the backup duties next year, and make him a must own for LT owners for the time being, as Turner is sure to leave for greener pastures in free agency.
Brent Celek, TE, Philadelphia Eagles
The fifth round pick from Cincinnati has soft hands and is a solid tight end. He was impressive in preseason and might see a prominent role going forward with L.J. Smith a free agent in 2008. In the week fifteen game against the Dallas Cowboys, the rookie caught three of his four pass targets for 50 yards. He has eleven receptions for 125 yards on the season. The 6'4", 250-pound tight end is a viable option in the Eagle passing game. The Eagles also have Matt Schobel, who is a very good blocker. There will be opportunity for Brent Celek in the coming years.
Byron Leftwich, QB, Atlanta Falcons
The ex-Jaguar starting passer is still just 27 years old. He has suffered from ankle and tailbone injuries this season. The former Marshall star has passed for over 9,300 yards in his short career. His one main knock has been the ability to stay healthy, even going back to his college days. The five-year pro has yet to play in all sixteen games in a season. But, he offers dynasty owners some upside. Leftwich signed a two year, six million dollar contract in September and should get a chance to start in 2008. The Falcon coaching staff should be much different than when Bobby Petrino was the coach. His departure gives hope for Leftwich as Atlanta will not be a lock to draft a quarterback in the first round.
Ben Patrick, TE, Arizona Cardinals
Coming into the 2007 NFL Draft, Patrick was considered to be a first day prospect at the TE position. He had done well in two post-season collegiate All-star games (East-West Shrine Game and the Senior Bowl), where he excelled. Many expected him to get scooped up early by teams in need of a big target, and the former Duke and University of Delaware tight end seemed to fit that description. For some reason Patrick fell in the draft to nearly the end, where he was finally snapped up by the Arizona Cardinals in the seventh round. The Cardinals already had a young tight end in Leonard Pope, but in Week 14 he was lost for the season due to an ankle injury. With both starting WRs Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin ailing, Patrick served as a good target for Kurt Warner. Sure enough Patrick rose to the occasion and scored in Week 15, his second career touchdown. Patrick could become a solid target for Ken Whisenhunt's Cardinal offense and become a much bigger factor in 2008.
H. B. Blades, LB, Washington Redskins
Blades was the third pick of the Redskins in the 2007 NFL Draft, a sixth round selection out of the University of Pittsburgh. Blades was considered to be a middle round prospect, so the Redskins appeared to get a bargain here. In the preseason, Blades showed good athleticism and made very good plays in August, catching many eyes as a good future linebacker in Washington. Unfortunately for him, Rocky McIntosh and London Fletcher occupied his possible positions and kept him on the bench. Last week, McIntosh suffered a bad knee injury that tore two ligaments (ACL, MCL) and could cost him 9-12 months in rehab. Now Blades gets his shot at starting, and will work at the weak side linebacker position for the next two weeks. If the athletic prospect plays well and show that he can play either on the outside or even take over in the middle (a position many say he is better suited for) he could inherit the WLB starter spot for 2008 and push to keep that role or move inside for Fletcher who will be 33 next May. If you have the ability to pick up Blades now, we suggest you do so prior to the Sunday Night game against Minnesota. That game will be nationally televised and everyone will be watching for Adrian Peterson to perform well, but if he starts to get tackled often by Barnes then everyone will quickly learn about this prospect.
