Dynasty Watch - Week 15
Posted 12/12 by Jeff Tefertiller, Sigmund Bloom, and William Grant, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
The purpose of this column is to spotlight deeper roster moves that could pay off big over the course of the season. Unless stated in a player's write up, we're not looking for one-week wonders here, but shark moves that could really strengthen your team down the road.
Dynasty Watch focuses on low risk, huge payoff roster moves that you might be able make before the guys in your league think about it. This aim of this column is to make you look like a genius to the other owners in your league. When news breaks and the other owners are scrambling to make a waiver wire move, we want them to be upset time and time again that the player is already on your squad.
Anthony Gonzalez, WR, Indianapolis Colts
What has he done so far
Gonzalez has topped 100 yards two out of the last three weeks and put on a show Sunday night with two long TDs vs. Baltimore. Gonzalez has converted almost 70% of his targets and he's posted a gaudy 16.7 yards per catch average. The quicks and speed he flashed at the combine and Ohio State seem to be translating.
Current Situation
Gonzalez has been getting starter's playing time ever since Marvin Harrison went down with a knee injury in week 4. Harrison has been out since then, save for some limited playing time vs. Jacksonville in week 7. There's a chance Harrison could return for the playoffs, but Gonzalez should be the starter for the remainder of the regular season, and he'll get significant playing time regardless of Harrison's status.
Spotlight ETA
There's always the chance that Harrison lost something that he can never regain because of the limited healing powers of a 35 year old, but it's likely that Harrison returns as the starter in 2008, and if he can regain form, beyond. Gonzalez's arrival as an every week fantasy starter is on indefinite hold, but at least we have learned that Gonzalez has the goods to deliver once Harrison starts posing for his bust at Canton.
Dynasty Upside
Gonzalez could enter the top 10 eventually. Manning's passing acumen and the Indy offense has already shown the potential to produce two elite fantasy WRs, the only variable is Gonzalez ability and that seems to be coming along. It is not advisable to trade Gonzalez until he becomes the starter.
Final Thoughts
Trust Bill Polian. Gonzalez follows Joseph Addai as late first round picks who seemed to be slight reaches in the wake of the guy the Colts actually wanted going mere picks ahead of them, and both are panning out - growing as players and stepping up their game. When Gonzalez flashed that double move on Sunday night, you could feel that it was the first of many that he and Manning were going to hook up on in the next 5 years. He could pass Sidney Rice and Dwayne Bowe as the most valuable fantasy WR in this class in time.
Shaun Hill, QB, San Francisco 49ers
What has he done so far
Shaun Hill was an undrafted quarterback out of the University of Maryland in 2002. His collegiate career peaked with his 2001 Orange Bowl appearance. He joined fellow Terrapin Mike Tice in Minnesota, where he had a cup of coffee and held a clipboard for the Vikings for four seasons. During that time he also played in NFL Europe, working with the Amsterdam Admirals in 2003. He is now in his second season with the 49ers and had been third on the depth chart before recent events.
Current Situation
The starting quarterback for your San Francisco 49ers! Aren't you excited? Okay, to be serious, Hill is now the leader of the 49er offense and will be for the rest of the year in all likelihood. Alex Smith will be on IR any minute now and Trent Dilfer probably thinks he still plays for the Ravens after having his bell rung last week. Hill gets his shot to lead an NFL team, something I am certain that he has always wanted. Let's all see what he can do with the opportunity.
Spotlight ETA
This Saturday night against the Cincinnati Bengals. After Hill put up decent numbers in Week 15 (22-28-181-1-1) against his previous team (the Minnesota Vikings, I'm sure you remember his famous kneel downs to conclude the 2005 season), he now gets the chance to build on that limited success against another weak pass defense. Hill will look to work the ball to Vernon Davis, Arnaz Battle and Frank Gore out of the backfield.
Dynasty Upside
There have been a number of undrafted quarterbacks to enter into the NFL and seemingly come out of nowhere to put up big numbers in a spot start and wind up competing for a job in a training camp the next season. Some have even blossomed with their current teams (See Tom Brady or Tony Romo). While he is not a rookie, that could be a blessing rather than a curse to the 27-year old signal caller. He has been in several training camps and worked with two teams and numerous coaches. Stranger things have happened, so it is conceivable that Hill could do well the next three weeks and be the next hot quarterback to come from nowhere.
Final Thoughts
Here's your chance, Shaun Hill. You could not have asked for two better teams to face in your first meaningful playtime in the NFL. First you had Minnesota, and now Cincinnati comes to town. Even better is that the game is on Saturday night, meaning that everyone can get a 3-hour scouting report on your abilities and think about whether you can fit into another team's plans if the 49ers decide to give up on you. Hill has to make the most of this chance, because if he doesn't it is likely his last. The good news is that well over half of the teams in the league could use a better #2 option at the very least, so a strong performance in Week 15 and possibly another against either Tampa Bay or Cleveland this season could get the phone ringing for you in February and March.
Kyle Orton, QB, Chicago Bears
What has he done so far
He's Baaaack. The QB who 'lead' the Bears to ten wins during their 2005 season. We say 'lead' of course because that was the year that Chicago had one of the most dominant defenses in the NFL and Orton only needed to move the offense to a few first downs and avoid turning the ball over. He barley did that and finished that season with 190-368 1869 yards passing, 9 TDs, 13 INTs and 12 fumbles, 5 of them lost to the other team. His passer rating for that season was just 59.7. He was promptly benched for the entire 2006 season.
Current Situation
Orton finds himself as the starting QB for the Bears for the final three games this season. Rex Grossman is done for the season with a sprained knee and Brian Griese has been sporadic as a starter for the Bears this year. Chicago turns to Orton to save them from an embarrassing season, or tank the final three games and land them a good draft slot (depending on how you want the season to end).
Spotlight ETA
It's now or never. Rex Grossman is done in Chicago. The fans would rather burn him as the stake than see him return as the starting QB in 2008, and Grossman probably hates the city as much as they hate him. Brian Griese has proven that he's no more than a backup QB anymore, winning some games and blowing others. He probably won't be with the Bears next season either. Orton has a gift-wrapped opportunity to win the starting job for Chicago in 2008.
Dynasty Upside
Chicago hasn't finished higher than 15th in passing yards since the 1999 season, but this is not your typical Chicago Bear team anymore. The Bears have been known for killer defense and smash-mouth running for several years now, yet those teams seem like a distant memory this season. The Bears rank 31st in rushing yards this year and their defense is ranked 30th in total yards allowed. To win, they need to throw the ball and that means tons of opportunity for Orton. They will lose some key defensive players to free agency this off season, and are going to have to pass the ball to win next year. If Orton can secure the starting job, he could find himself on a team that will need 3900 yards passing or more to win.
Final Thoughts
OK, it's a long shot. The 2008 Chicago Bears QB is probably not on the roster at this point. However, one cannot deny Orton's opportunity to secure the starting job over the next three games. The key to being successful in Chicago is to find a way to win, and Orton managed to do that in 2005 with the help of a very solid defensive team. He won't have that luxury this season, but if he can find a way to win, he will be the guy they turn to in 2008. Stranger things have happened. There are plenty of starting QBs in the NFL right now that DON'T have a 10-win season under their belts. Orton might just be the guy to surprise everyone. Keep an eye on him for the final three games and if he performs well, expect him to have a chance to be the 2008 starter.
Players You Should Already Be Watching
Derek Hagan, WR, Miami Dolphins
With Marty Booker out, Hagan became a big part of the Cleo Lemon-led passing attack with eight catches for 93 yards in the snow at Buffalo last week. Hagan is still a shaky hands catcher, but he will benefit from Ted Ginn drawing the deep safety. Hagan also showed some deep speed of his own. Marty Booker could be a cap casualty next year, opening the door for a full audition for the Arizona State product.
T.J. Duckett, RB, Detroit Lions
Duckett rumbled for 60 yards on only nine carries vs. Dallas. Don't get caught up on the perception that Duckett has been a complete bust. He was a very effective short yardage runner and established himself as a punishing presence between the tackles early in his career. Since getting dealt from Atlanta, Duckett has landed on two teams that don't seem to know what to do with him. He's a free agent next year, hopefully his next team will use him to inflict blunt force trauma at the goal line and make him a fantasy commodity again.
Brock Berlin, QB, St. Louis Rams
Brock Berlin - that name sounds familiar, doesn't it? Well, if you watched the University of Miami play football between 2003 and 2004, that's why. Berlin was the starting quarterback for the Hurricanes after transferring from the University of Florida, a team he went on to beat twice at Miami. Berlin had two good but not great seasons before going undrafted in the 2005 NFL Draft. He also gained experience in NFL Europe with the Hamburg Sea Devils. Berlin signed with the Dolphins and spent two seasons in Miami before catching on with Dallas in 2007 but was cut before training camp. Finally Berlin was reacquired by the Rams as both Marc Bulger and Gus Frerotte were hurt. That set of circumstances all led to Berlin getting his first NFL start just days after signing with St. Louis. Berlin did okay in his debut, completing 17 of 28 attempts for 153 yards and one interception. If Bulger and Frerotte are unable to take the field, the Rams will give Berlin another set of opportunity to perform. Considering the current state of both the NFL and the Rams at the quarterback position, Berlin could come in to 2008 and be able to compete for at least a #2 QB role for the Rams or another team in need.
Gilbert Harris, RB, Kansas City Chiefs
Who??? So let me get this straight. The Chiefs started the year with Larry Johnson, traded away Michael Bennett, then used Priest Holmes who miraculously healed and was able to play, then they lost Priest to a career-ending injury. Now do we see Harris? Of course not because Kolby Smith then becomes the starter. So Harris, fifth at best on the depth chart this past summer, now finds himself as the backup to Smith for the rest of they year. Harris did see some work in Week 14 when Smith left the game with a minor injury, where Harris had four carries for a scant four yards in the second quarter against Denver. The point here is that Kansas City has no one left after Harris, who is the only man left after Kolby Smith. NFL starting running backs are rare and they get hurt often, so if you are in a very deep league and want to take a wild stab at a possible RB for the future, keep an eye on the former Arizona Wildcat that wears red now for the Kansas City Chiefs.
Ronald Bartell, CB, St. Louis Rams
Bartell is currently 3rd on the Rams in total Tackles with 52 solo tackles and 4 assists. He also has a sack, six pass defenses and two interceptions. He lost the starting job for part of the season but has come on strong as of late with 21 solo tackles over the last three games. He's in his third season with the Rams and is already having a career-best season statistically. He currently ranks 38th as a fantasy defensive back, but could easily finish in the top 25 if he keeps up his current pace. Keep an eye on him this off season and see what the Rams do defensively. He's flexible enough to play free safety as well which gives him a lot of opportunity with the Rams in 2008 and beyond.
Josh Scobee, PK, Jacksonville Jaguars
He's been cast off in many leagues since even dynasty owners in 53-man leagues don't like to carry an injured player, much less an injured kicker. Yet Scobee was projected as one of the top ten PKs this season and is 11 of 12 in FG attempts since returning to the starting job back in week 11. Jacksonville ranks 12th in total yards this year and their offense has dramatically improved with David Garrard at QB. While John Carney put up serviceable numbers as the Jaguar Kicker for the first part of the season, Scobee is their guy and will be a nice offseason pickup in most dynasty leagues.
