Dynasty Watch - Week 14
Posted 12/5 by Jeff Tefertiller, Sigmund Bloom, and William Grant, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
The purpose of this column is to spotlight deeper roster moves that could pay off big over the course of the season. Unless stated in a player's write up, we're not looking for one-week wonders here, but shark moves that could really strengthen your team down the road.
Dynasty Watch focuses on low risk, huge payoff roster moves that you might be able make before the guys in your league think about it. This aim of this column is to make you look like a genius to the other owners in your league. When news breaks and the other owners are scrambling to make a waiver wire move, we want them to be upset time and time again that the player is already on your squad.
Luke McCown, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
What has he done so far
McCown actually piloted the Cleveland Browns for four games in 2004 as a rookie. The Browns went 0-4. He predictably struggled, with sub 50% accuracy and seven interceptions against four touchdowns. It was an entirely different story last Sunday as McCown completed his first fifteen passes on the way to a 29 for 37 performance for 313 yards and two touchdowns. McCown also ran for 34 yards and threw one pick that was returned for a touchdown.
Current Situation
Jeff Garcia has said he is going to practice and expects to play this weekend in Houston, so it's likely back to the bench for McCown after his first win. Garcia's age and back condition make his place atop the depth chart precarious, so McCown could see more action this year. He has clearly passed Bruce Gradkowski on the depth chart, after Gradkowski guided the sputtering offense to a win the defense earned in week 12 vs. Washington.
Spotlight ETA
McCown is under contract with the Bucs next year, as is Garcia, but as we saw last week, he should see in the field at some point in the season. Beyond 2008, McCown could definitely get a look as a starter in a league starved for good QB play.
Dynasty Upside
McCown showed some good bread and butter skills in the Saints win - he had good wheels once he decided to run, he was elusive behind the line of scrimmage and often kept plays alive, his timing passes were on the money and allowed for great run after catch opportunities, he got the ball to Galloway deep when he broke open, and he hit a pressure TD with :16 left to win the game. Of course, then again, it was the Saints. He should be rostered in all dynasty leagues, but it's a little early to get too excited.
Final Thoughts
McCown certainly composed himself like a starting quality QB last weekend. He had great presence and decisiveness in the pocket and he ran the offense with great command. He has an NFL arm, on both the short and deep throws, and he's athletic. McCown has earned praise from Jon Gruden more than once, and one can only wonder what would have been if he hadn't had his 2006 ended by injury before it started. Don't be surprised if McCown gets some playoff action this year.
JaMarcus Russell, QB, Oakland Raiders
What has he done so far
JaMarcus Russell saw his first action of his career in week thirteen. The rookie completed four of seven passes for 56 yards. This was on two series in the first half. Fantasy owners can expect the former first overall pick to continue to see action as the season progresses. The huge specimen of a quarterback led the Raiders into Bronco territory on both drives, though scoring no points. Josh McCown played well, keeping the former LSU star on the sideline. This may not be the case every week.
Current Situation
JaMarcus is now up to second on the Raider depth chart. With Daunte Culpepper only signing a one-year contract in the offseason, the starting quarterback job should be Russell's in 2008. He is a big presence at passer. At 6'6", 255-pounds, the former LSU Tiger is an imposing presence under center. He is athletic for a big passer; with a big arm … a very big arm. The Raiders are a team in transition. They have two decent receivers in Ronald Curry and Jerry Porter. The team needs a good young receiver. Coach Kiffin is helping the Oakland Raiders transform in a better offensive team after the debacle under Art Shell.
Spotlight ETA
The first pick of the 2007 NFL Draft was late to sign with the Raiders and has been playing catch up all season. He threw for 3,129 yards and 28 TDs in 2006 at LSU. In that great season, Russell only threw eight interceptions. JaMarcus added 142 yards and one score on the ground.
Dynasty Upside
Russell has the look of a top fantasy passer. He is big and strong and plays for a team that is attempting to upgrade their offensive personnel. The rookie has the potential to be a top ten fantasy quarterback. With any upgrade at the receiver position, Russell could have even more upside. He is only 22 years old and is still maturing as a quarterback.
Final Thoughts
JaMarcus Russell, like many rookie passers, requires patience from fantasy owners. It will not be until 2008, at the earliest, before Russell sees enough game time that fantasy owners will get a good gauge on his abilities. But, Russell has the look of a future star in the league.
Jonathan Joseph, CB, Cincinnati Bengals
What has he done so far
Joseph was a first round pick for the Bengals last season, #24 overall from South Carolina. He finished his rookie season with 46 solo tackles, 12 assists, 20 pass defenses but no interceptions. That was good enough for only 86th on the 'top 100' fantasy DB list. He has been up and down this season posting five solo tackles one week and then one the next. He's had three games with 12 or more fantasy points and two with two points or less.
Current Situation
Joseph is a starting CB for the Bengals this season opposite Leon Hall. He's currently ranked 104th among fantasy DBs this season, but he's come on strong over the last two weeks. Since posting a giant 0 for stats against Arizona in week 11, Joseph has been on fire with 11 solo tackles, 1 assist, 5 pass defenses and 2 interceptions.
Spotlight ETA
Probably 2008. Joseph hasn't done enough to bring him into the fantasy spotlight at this time, but he will have plenty of opportunities the rest of the season as the Bengals given their 4-7 record at this point. Deltha O'Neal is getting a little long in the tooth, and by next season, Joseph should be hitting his prime.
Dynasty Upside
The Bengals had high expectations for Joseph when the drafted him back in 2006 and he hasn't lived up to that potential quite yet. However, Joseph is going to see plenty of action the rest of the season and shown solid potential to become a ball hawk. With 29 pass defenses over the last two seasons and three interceptions this year, Joseph is showing growth and could be really ready to break out for 2008.
Final Thoughts
Most dynasty leagues are into their playoff mode, so Joseph will have to wait until the off season. Keep an eye on him as the Bengals try to play spoilers for the rest of the regular season. Joseph is going to get a chance to really showcase his potential over this period and it could really determine his fantasy value going into the off season. He's show the potential to put up solid numbers, and he's also shown the potential to disappear in games. Is he a legitimate fantasy DB or a guy who's going to break your heart some weeks? The jury is still out but his last two weeks have shown that he's someone to keep an eye on.
Players You Should Already Be Watching
Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, New York Giants
Brandon Jacobs and Derrick Ward have been outstanding, but they can't stay healthy. Reuben Droughns has been workmanlike, but ineffective. Ward is now on IR, while Jacobs is back, but Bradshaw should get the call for a few more touches, and he has looked good on the few opportunities he's gotten to run the stretch play, getting the corner with ease. Ward will be a free agent next year, which could put Bradshaw in direct line for carries if (when?) Jacobs gets hurt in 2008.
DeDe Dorsey, RB, Cincinnati Bengals
The number of third string (or lower) RBs making a fantasy impact in 2007 should give hope to a guy like Dorsey. He got cut by the Colts right before the season started because he was hurt, and because Kenton Keith had a better camp. Going on the few times Dorsey has touched the ball for the Bengals this year, Dorsey would have been able to do more with the touches Keith has gotten in the Indy offense, but the Bengals were able get Dorsey back after the Colts nabbed him from them when they tried to stash him on the practice squad in 2006. Dorsey has blocked a punt and returned it for a TD this year, a skill he shined at in college (in addition RB and DB) at tiny Lindenwood. Dorsey's special team skills will keep him on rosters, and he could figure in a cloudy Cincinnati backfield in 2008.
Samkon Gado, RB, Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins signed the third-year pro from Liberty after he was cut from the Houston Texans. Miami has had several injuries at running back, giving Gado an opportunity to getting playing time. With Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams both out for the season, and Jesse Chatman nicked with an ankle injury, Samkon should see even more time in week fourteen. After seeing only two carries in week thirteen, the former Packer and Texan could actually start this week. Many fantasy owners will forever remember him for his three one hundred yard games as Packer rookie in 2005.
Mike Furrey, WR, Detroit Lions
Mike Furrey came out of nowhere in 2006 to catch 98 of his 146 pass targets for the Detroit Lions. Last season, he totaled 1,086 receiving yards and six touchdowns. In 2007, with the drafting of Calvin Johnson and the signing of former Ram teammate Shaun McDonald, the former Northern Iowa star has been the fourth receiver for the Lions. With the knee injury to Roy Williams, Furrey will start. On the season, the 30-yard old receiver only has 46 catches for 522 yards and one touchdown grab. His 66 pass targets are well behind the 2007 pace. Fantasy owners should expect Mike Furrey to be a very viable fantasy receiver down the stretch this season. For the future, Furrey will be a good depth receiver for many years. Mike Furrey signed a three-year contract this past offseason.
Antonio Cromartie, CB, San Diego Chargers
We spotlighted Cromartie a couple weeks ago as someone to keep an eye on. After a couple weeks off, he's back into the starting lineup and making opposing quarterbacks nervous as hell. This week he had five solo tackles and picked off two passes against Kansas City. He has a league leading 22 pass defenses and eight interceptions. If you haven't picked up this guy by now, you're going to wish that you had because at this pace, he's going to be one of the hottest free agent acquisitions over the summer in IDP leagues.
Haloti Ngata, DT, Baltimore Ravens
Ngata showcased his talents on Monday Night Football this week by harassing Tom Brady and the Patriots. He racked up 7 solo tackles and a sack this week, almost single-handedly disrupting the entire Patriot offense. Over the last five games, Ngata has 21 solo tackles, 8 assists and a sack. He currently ranks ninth in combined tackles for DL this season with 52. He's a tackle so he's not going to post double digit sacks like a defensive end will, but he's still around the ball enough to warrant consideration in leagues that require a DL. Given what he did to the Patriots this season, he could be a nice pickup going into next year.
