Dynasty Watch - Week 13
Posted 11/28 by Jeff Pasquino, Jeff Tefertiller, and William Grant, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
The purpose of this column is to spotlight deeper roster moves that could pay off big over the course of the season. Unless stated in a player's write up, we're not looking for one-week wonders here, but shark moves that could really strengthen your team down the road.
Dynasty Watch focuses on low risk, huge payoff roster moves that you might be able make before the guys in your league think about it. This aim of this column is to make you look like a genius to the other owners in your league. When news breaks and the other owners are scrambling to make a waiver wire move, we want them to be upset time and time again that the player is already on your squad.
Justin Gage, WR, Tennessee Titans
What has he done so far
Justin Gage was drafted by the Chicago Bears in the fifth round of the 2003 NFL draft. This is the first season for the former Missouri Tiger in Tennessee. His best season was in 2005, catching 31 of his 55 targets for 346 yards and a pair of touchdowns. So, far in 2007, the 6'4", 217-pound receiver has eclipse his career highs in every category except scoring grabs. Gage has 36 receptions for 477 yards and a touchdown through the first eleven games.
Current Situation
The last three games have seen the 26 year old as the Titans' top receiver. He has caught 17 of his 26 targets for 254 yards and a touchdown. Gage almost scored a couple of times in the week twelve game against the Cincinnati Bengals. In the second quarter, the former Bear caught a pass and fell out of bounds at the seven yards line for a 73-yard gain. He should have scored, but lost his balance. The starting receivers for the Titans coming into the season have disappointed. Brandon Jones, Roydell Williams and Eric Moulds have not played well. This has opened the door for Gage to seize the opportunity.
Spotlight ETA
Throughout the last three games, Gage's 26 targets give him the 17th highest total for a receiver during those three games. Justin Gage is the number one option for Vince Young and the Titan passing game. The Titans have had no receiver step up this season until Gage the last three games. Vince Young has looked to the young receiver often for the big play.
Dynasty Upside
Gage has the potential to catch 75 balls in a season. He will never have a high yards per reception average or a high number of touchdowns, but a 75 catches and 850 receiving yards is easily within reason. This is the fifth year in the season for Justin Gage, even though he is just 26 years old. This could be the situation the former Missouri star has needed to flourish.
Final Thoughts
Justin Gage is an underrated young receiver that has earned the confidence of Vince Young. He could have 50 catches this season and is quietly becoming a receiver who will be on sleeper lists all offseason.
Patrick Cobbs, RB, Miami Dolphins
What has he done so far
Patrick Cobbs came into Week 12 for the Miami Dolphins as the third running back on the depth chart and quickly ascended to the starting back once both Ricky Williams and Jesse Chatman were lost to injury. Cobbs is in his second year for his third NFL team (Patriots, Steelers) and finally saw regular season action in Week 7 this season. He made the most of his playing time, running for 14 yards and a touchdown on five carries and caught one pass for nine yards against New England. It was the first touchdown of his NFL career.
Current Situation
Patrick Cobbs led the country in rushing and scoring in 2003 for North Texas and was the feature back for the Mean Green for three seasons before getting signed by the Patriots after the 2006 NFL Draft. Cobbs bounced from the Pats to the Steelers and then the Dolphins until getting put on the active roster in November of 2006, where he has remained ever since.
Spotlight ETA
Cobbs played some in the quagmire that was otherwise known as Heinz Field on Monday Night Football - mostly because he was the only healthy RB left that was active for the Dolphins. Ricky Williams is now done for the year and if Jesse Chatman is also sidelined with an injury, Cobbs could be the next RB to come out of nowhere and shine - which this year seems more possible than ever.
Dynasty Upside
Ryan Grant, anyone? Cobbs will be 24 in January, with plenty of football left in him. His upside is as high as any other young RB that gets his shot in the NFL to start for his team - if he performs well during this opportunity, he will be given the ball either by the Dolphins or by another team next season. Cobbs has the physical size of Brian Westbrook, who also happened to play for a smaller school and set numerous records as both a rusher and kick returner. While the comparison is a stretch, stranger things have happened.
Final Thoughts
Cobbs was a stellar performer in college, but he had the misfortune of playing for a team (North Texas) in a conference (Sun Belt) that nearly no one follows or even sees other than in an inconsequential bowl game in early December. That's a shame, as there are many talented players in that league that are capable of putting up good numbers and performances at the next level. Cobbs could make the most of his chance and do extremely well, making Dynasty owners who take a flyer on him now very happy.
Chris Clemons, DE/LB, Oakland Raiders
What has he done so far
Clemons is in his 4th NFL season, and his first with the Raiders. Clemons was an undrafted free agent who signed with the Redskins in 2003 and spent most of the season on injured reserve. He played off and on for the next two years, but was also injured for large portions of that time as well. He was waived by the Redskins in August of 2006 and sat out the entire season. He signed with the Raiders this summer as a free agent.
Current Situation
Clemons is a 'tweener', spending most of his time at DE for the Raiders now. He's currently listed as #4 on the depth chart behind Derrick Burgess, Jay Richardson and Tyler Brayton. He's now mainly used as a pass rush specialist.
Spotlight ETA
Clemons has been on fire the last three games, recording seven solo tackles, one assist and four sacks during that time span. He's still considered a backup, but he's beginning to draw attention now. By 2008, if he continues to perform, Clemons could be competing for the starting job.
Dynasty Upside
Clemons is only 25 years old, and came to the NFL with minimal college experience. He has spent the bulk of his career on the bench due to injury and inactivity, but he is starting to show signs of life. As a LB he has not been effective, but he has shown solid progress since shifting to DE for the Raiders. He hasn't shown that he can play every down yet, but he is still good for a couple tackles and possibly a sack per game, making him a solid DE in most IDP leagues.
Final Thoughts
This kid is still very raw, and he could just as easily flame out as he could blossom into a solid DE. The key with him is that he's only 25 years old, and still has the desire to play in the league. The shift to DE has done him well, and if he can adjust to life 'on the edge' where his size and speed can make him a dangerous pass rusher, he might just find a place on the Raiders for 2008. Injuries are still a concern for him, and he has yet to finish a full season, but he's definitely worth watching at this point.
Players You Should Already Be Watching
Bruce Gradkowski, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The second-year pro from Toledo entered the week twelve game against the Redskins after starter Jeff Garcia hurt his back. Gradkowski completed nine of 19 passes for 106 yards. He added 24 more yards on the ground two rushes. As a rookie, replacing Chris Simms after the spleen injury, Bruce played 14 games. He is only 24 years old and is in a good situation to mature and improve.
Aveion Cason, RB, Detroit Lions
The former Illinois State star had more combined yards on Thanksgiving than in any game since the 2003 season. He caught four balls for 58 yards. The Lions utilized Cason's good receiving ability was on display with specific plays called to match Cason up on a linebacker. He could be a great PPR prospect in deep leagues if anything were to happen to Kevin Jones. Cason should be on the radar of dynasty owners in PPR leagues. He might be the player the Lions wanted when they drafted Calhoun.
Adrian Peterson, RB, Chicago Bears
Bears fans have been hoping all year for Cedric Benson to step up and perform as a true feature running back this season, yet they have been sadly disappointed. Many have called for the third-down back, Adrian Peterson (or "Adrian N. Peterson", thanks to a new guy in Minnesota) to get more action to try and spark the ground game for Chicago. Hopes were raised for just that scenario as there was talk in Bears country that they would work him in more after their Week 9 bye. Now with the loss of Benson for the season, Peterson inherits the featured back role, which helps him on several levels. Peterson already has 33 catches out of the backfield and now defenses will not be able to assume that he is in the game mostly for the passing game. The 28-year old Peterson will now have his chance to establish himself as a viable starting tailback in the NFL over the course of the next five games. It won't be easy as the Bears face some very good defenses the rest of the season, but if Peterson performs well he may enter 2008 with the Bears at least on equal footing with Benson for a shot to be the starter next season. If Benson takes a long time to recover from his leg surgery, Peterson's value may skyrocket by next September.
Garrett Wolfe, RB, Chicago Bears
Wolfe was drafted by Chicago very late on Day 1 of the 2007 NFL Draft, going to the Bears as the 93rd overall selection. Wolfe put up huge numbers and Northern Illinois University, a school that is near and dear to the heart of fellow alum Michael Turner of the San Diego Chargers. Wolfe racked up 1,928 rushing yards in his senior year, leading the entire NCAA in rushing, including a 285 total yard performance (117 rushing) against Ohio State. Wolfe slipped down to the third round as some questioned his overall size (5'7", 186) and the overall level of competition that he faced. After Chicago drafted him, offensive coordinator Ron Turner compared Wolfe to Warrick Dunn for his acceleration and ability to burst through the hole. Now Wolfe finds himself as the #2 back for the Bears with the injury to Cedric Benson and the promotion of his backup, Adrian N. Peterson, to the starting role. Wolfe should get more opportunities over the next several weeks to show what he can do in the NFL.
Fernando Bryant, CB, Detroit Lions
This week Bryant had a lousy game against the Packers, but before that he was posting some solid numbers for the Lions. Through the first 11 weeks of the season, Bryant had 4 or more solo tackles in 10 of them, and six or more combined tackles in seven games. Even after his one tackle performance this week, Bryant still ranks 15th among fantasy DBs with 53 solo tackles, 8 assists, 2 INTs and 10 pass defenses. His shelf life isn't as long as you might like in a dynasty league because he's playing in his 9th season, but he still has several good years left in the tank. Keep an eye on him the rest of the season as he's on pace to put up career-best numbers.
Pierson Prioleau, FS, Washington Redskins
With Sean Taylor's untimely passing, Prioleau assumes the starting free safety job for the Redskins for the remaining five games this season. Even before this, Prioleau was on pace to have his best season since his rookie year back in 2002. Now, as the full time starter, he should put up even better numbers as he is also playing for a new contract in 2008. It's too early to tell if Prioleau will be resigned by the Redskins for 2008 or not, but if he can finish the season strong, he will make a good case to return to Washington next season. Keep an eye on him and see how he performs the rest of the way. He may be a good free agent pickup for the summer months.
