Dynasty Watch - Week 12
Posted 11/21 by Jeff Pasquino, Jeff Tefertiller, and Sigmund Bloom, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
The purpose of this column is to spotlight deeper roster moves that could pay off big over the course of the season. Unless stated in a player's write up, we're not looking for one-week wonders here, but shark moves that could really strengthen your team down the road.
Dynasty Watch focuses on low risk, huge payoff roster moves that you might be able make before the guys in your league think about it. This aim of this column is to make you look like a genius to the other owners in your league. When news breaks and the other owners are scrambling to make a waiver wire move, we want them to be upset time and time again that the player is already on your squad.
Ricky Williams, RB, Miami Dolphins
What has he done so far
Ricky Williams has almost 9,000 career total yards from scrimmage in his career. He has not touched the ball since the 2005 season. Most forget how versatile the former Texas Longhorn has been throughout his career. Williams has four seasons with at least 44 receptions. Yes, Ricky has an uphill climb to be a viable fantasy running back, but he has been effective in the past.
Current Situation
Ricky Williams is just 30 years old even though he has been away from the NFL for a couple of years. He has only 1757 career rushes. The Dolphins lost starter Ronnie Brown to a knee injury earlier in the season and now only has Jesse Chatman at running back. Patrick Cobbs, Samkon Gado, and Lorenzo Booker are the current backups. Ricky at any age is better than these backs.
Spotlight ETA
Dolphins coach Cam Cameron would not say whether Ricky Williams will play in against Pittsburgh on Monday Night. He will begin practicing with the team on Wednesday and we will know later in the week if Ricky will play. It has been reported that Williams has been working hard for several weeks and is only a few pounds from his former playing weight.
Dynasty Upside
Ricky Williams was a top ten running back in three of his six seasons, the only three years he played all of the games. He was a top running back in his prime and can be a top twenty ball carrier if his heart is into the game. The Dolphins may want to showcase Williams for an offseason trade since they obviously have no shot at the playoffs.
Final Thoughts
Ricky Williams is a player that dynasty owners will want as a depth running back. He offers a high ceiling with little risk. Williams could be worth a lot in dynasty leagues this offseason
Kevin Kolb, QB, Philadelphia Eagles
What has he done so far
Kolb was one of the surprising draft picks in the 2007 NFL Draft. Few people
expected that Philadelphia would grab a QB on Day 1, let alone in Round Two.
Kolb was highly touted by several scouts and Mike Mayock from the NFL Network
as a top prospect coming out of the University of Houston and the Eagles were
one of many teams to take note of his talents. Kolb ran a wide open passing
attack for the Cougars, racking up 30 TD passes against just four picks in his
2006 season.
Kolb's signature college year was 2006, throwing for 30 touchdowns against only
4 interceptions on the way to a 10-4 record and a Conference USA championship.
Kolb won the conference's offensive MVP but lost to South Carolina 44-36 in
the Liberty Bowl.
His awards include:
- 2006 C-USA Preseason Player-of-the-Year (The Sporting News)
- 2005 Third Team All-Conference USA
- 2003 C-USA Freshman-of-the-Year
- 2003 Third Team All-Conference USA
- 2003 C-USA All-Freshman Team
- 2003 The Sporting News, Third-Team, Freshman All-America
- 2003 Rivals.com Honorable Mention, All-America
- 2003 Freshman of the Year, CollegeFootballNews.com
- C-USA Co-Offensive Player-of-the-Week (Oct. 27, 2003)
- C-USA Offensive Player-of-the-Week (Sept. 22, 2003)
Current Situation
Right now Kolb is mastering the art of holding a clipboard in Philadelphia, but all that may change sooner than many think. Kolb performed well in the preseason and is learning a very QB friendly offense under Andy Reid, who has been known to groom an NFL quarterback or two in the past.
Spotlight ETA
That's the ultimate question, isn't it? Donovan McNabb is the Philadelphia passing game, and it has been his team ever since he was drafted in Andy Reid's first draft in 1999. McNabb has had a rollercoaster career in Philly, so the next major downswing could open the door for the young Kolb to at least start to get some game experience. Whether that is next week, a few weeks, 2008 or beyond is the big question - but it does seem like Kolb will eventually get his shot at leading the Eagle offense.
Dynasty Upside
As long as Andy Reid is running the Eagles, the passing offense and the QB position will be a central focus for the offense. Kolb has shown as a collegiate QB that he can get the job done, and his performance at the NFL combine caught many scout eyes. Assuming that he ultimately gets the reins in Philadelphia, much will depend on his supporting cast (which has never been great aside from Terrell Owens' stay). Kolb was a mobile QB in college and may rely on some of those skills to buy time in the pocket as he waits for receivers to get open. As for a player comparison, some have said he could be considered the 2007 version of Jay Cutler.
Drew Carter, WR, Carolina Panthers
What has he done so far
Carter has already created some fireworks in about two years worth of playing time, after spending most of the first two years of his pro career shelved because of injuries to his right knee. He caught a 32 yard touchdown in his second game as a pro, after Steve Smith got booted from a game, and he caught nine passes for 96 yards when Smith missed the first two games of 2006. Carter exploded for eight catches, 144 yards a TD in week 14 of '06 before spraining an ankle. He started out 2007 as basically the #3 WR and produced sporadically until Steve Smith missed last week, posting 5/132/1 - mostly in garbage time.
Current Situation
Smith has been experiencing blood clotting in his left shin after he bruised it, but the Panthers trainer said he was very close to playing last week, and Coach John Fox said he was "likely" to play this week. While he won't be able to put up big numbers even if he has earned the #2 job outright from Keary Colbert, because of the probable presence of Steve Smith, he's worth rostering down the stretch if Smith gets hurt again, as last week proved.
Spotlight ETA
2008 - Carter will be an unrestricted free agent, and the Panthers are unlikely lock him up because they invested a second round pick in Dwayne Jarrett this year to be the future sidekick to Smith. Carter should find himself becoming one of the most coveted free agent WRs in a weak market, with Bernard Berrian and Patrick Crayton being the only current starting NFL wide receivers in the market before we see the cap cuts. Carter will be given the opportunity to compete for a starting job wherever he signs, if he's not handed a starting job with his new contract.
Dynasty Upside
Carter has a rare size (6'4") speed (4.35 40) combination, and he's also athletic enough to make acrobatic catches. He's a perfect red zone target and deep target, as he's already got eight touchdowns in his young career, three over thirty yards. Carter is not quite on the level of a D.J. Hackett, but he could become a surprise WR3 next year on the right team - as long as he's got good QB play and the opportunity. He definitely has the right skill set to maximize his fantasy value, and he's just entering his prime at 26 years old.
Final Thoughts
This is the time of year to be looking closely at contract situations and seeing who should be in line for greater opportunity in 2008, and who has the ability to take advantage of a larger role. Carter fits the bill on both counts, and he should not be on the waiver wire in any serious dynasty league.
Players You Should Already Be Watching
A.J. Feeley, QB, Philadelphia Eagles
A.J. Feeley came into the week eleven game against the Dolphins after Donovan McNabb left with an ankle injury. After entering the game in the second quarter, Feeley completed 13 of 19 passes for 116 yards, with a touchdown and an interception. With the Eagles facing the impressive New England Patriots in week twelve, Feeley would not be a good fantasy starter even if McNabb were out. Feeley has only attempted 70 passes in the last three seasons, but played in eleven games in 2004. With the injury history of McNabb, and the rumors of McNabb being traded or cut in the offseason, the former Oregon star could be a viable dynasty passer.
Darius Walker, RB, Houston Texans
Darius Walker was a versatile runner while starring at Notre Dame. With Ahman Green having serious knee issues, and only Ron Dayne as a proven runner on the team, there is opportunity for Walker. The Houston Chronicle expects the former Golden Domer to be promoted to the active roster for the Texans. Darius is a good receiver and runs well as a one-cut runner. His skill set could be a good fit for the Texans as a third down, change of pace back, to complement Ron Dayne.
Sam Hurd, Dallas Cowboys
Once upon a time the Dallas Cowboys had three solid options at wide receiver. After Terrell Owens was slated as the primary target, Terry Glenn was penciled in as the other starter with Patrick Crayton serving as the third option. Well, Glenn went down to an injury and now we have just learned that Crayton could be hurt too. So who does that leave for the hottest NFC QB? Sam Hurd is that man, and he would be next in line to start for the Cowboys. He already has one touchdown on 10 receptions this season, his first NFL score, and has been used on rare occasions to stretch the field. Hurd has 169 yards on those 10 catches and has four of them in the past two weeks. If you are looking for the next Drew Carter-type WR with upside, take a hard look at Hurd.
Fred Jackson and Dwayne Wright, Buffalo Bills
While most waiver wire claims went for Anthony "A-Train" Thomas last week after Marshawn Lynch was injured, two other RBs gained some value. Dwayne Wright, a sixth round pick from Fresno State, has drawn comparisons to Frank Gore and has been considered to be a decent goal line type back. Fred Jackson lit up the stat sheets in the preseason as an unheralded and undrafted back from Coe College, a Division III school from Cedar Rapids, Iowa - but you knew that already, right? Well, maybe you didn't know that he is also the emergency QB for the Bills, who only have two QBs on their roster. Jackson is a speedy back who brings a spark to Buffalo every time he touches the ball. You may not have noticed, but he touched the ball five times against the Patriots in Week 11 in his first regular season game. At 6'1" and 215 lbs, the speedster also saw duties as a kick returner. Look for both Jackson and Wright to get some touches and chances going forward for at least as long as Lynch is sidelined.
Sinorice Moss, WR, New York Giants
The Giants continue to work the 2006 second round pick into the mix on short underneath routes that allow him to do damage after the catch, and Moss is starting to do more with those catches. He's getting more work because Plaxico Burress' ankle continues to limit him, and rookie Steve Smith has still been unable to return to action since suffering a broken shoulder blade. Both Burress and his fellow current starter Amani Toomer are over 30 years old, so while a lot of people have written Moss off prematurely, the raw product out of Miami still has a chance to join his "big" brother Santana as a starter in this league down the line.
Daunte Culpepper, QB, Oakland Raiders
Not only is C-pep's knee OK, but his arm ain't bad either. Culpepper threw for over 300 yards against his old mates in Minnesota last week, and he's done a passable job at QB when given the chance this year. Passable is good enough to start in a league without 32 starting quality QBs, and we know that the soon-to-be free agent Culpepper made his contract choice this past offseason on what organization gave him the best chance to start. He's a great candidate to keep a spot warm for one of the 2008 rookie QBs, just as he did for JaMarcus Russell this year, and between that OK knee and Culpepper's freewheeling style, Daunte should be a fine bye week/injury fill-in at QB as long as he gets that starting job somewhere - and he's only 30, so he's far from the end of the line.
