Dynasty Watch - Week 11
Posted 11/15 by Jeff Pasquino, William Grant, and Sigmund Bloom, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
The purpose of this column is to spotlight deeper roster moves that could pay off big over the course of the season. Unless stated in a player's write up, we're not looking for one-week wonders here, but shark moves that could really strengthen your team down the road.
Dynasty Watch focuses on low risk, huge payoff roster moves that you might be able make before the guys in your league think about it. This aim of this column is to make you look like a genius to the other owners in your league. When news breaks and the other owners are scrambling to make a waiver wire move, we want them to be upset time and time again that the player is already on your squad.
Michael Bush, RB, Oakland Raiders
What has he done so far
Bush has worked his way back in practice on the scout team from a serious leg injury suffered last September. The leg had to have two surgeries, one right before the draft, which caused the very talented Bush to fall to the beginning of the fourth round. The Raiders have until press time (Wednesday November 14) to activate him to the 53 man roster from the PUP. With LaMont Jordan seeing no action last week, there is a chance Bush gets the call.
Current Situation
Bush will almost certainly get a chance to win the starting job in 2008, and if he gets activated, he might have value down the stretch this year. Justin Fargas has performed admirably, but he's never held down a starting job, and he's been injured frequently in his short career. Jordan is due 4.7 million next year, which makes him a likely cap casualty in the offseason. Dominic Rhodes has been a bust as a free agent signing, so it seems only Fargas stands in Bush's way for playing time.
Spotlight ETA
Bush will arrive no later than opening day 2008.
Dynasty Upside
Significant. Bush is a very quick and fast back for a guy who carries over 240 pounds, although he seemed to think more like a scatback during his career until his final game, which saw him lower his shoulder and run behind his pads. The Oakland line has proven to be an excellent zone blocking team, and they have made Jordan and Fargas viable fantasy starters on a team that has lacked a threat at QB all year. Bush could be a perennial top 20 fantasy back if his leg is right.
Final Thoughts
Don't be fooled by Bush's status as a 4th rounder. He is a first/second round physical talent at RB, and he's one of most undervalued young backs in dynasty leagues right now. Pounce on him if he's still on your waiver wire.
Matt Moore, QB, Carolina Panthers
What has he done so far
Matt Moore was an undrafted quarterback out of Oregon State that caught on with the Dallas Cowboys in the preseason. Moore performed well enough in August that he almost made the final cuts for the Cowboys, but they tried to cut him at the last cut-down date and then re-sign him to their practice squad. Carolina took note and claimed him, placing him on their team as insurance to Jake Delhomme and David Carr. Since then, injuries have plagued the Panthers so much that Moore saw action already, completing one nice long ball to Keary Colbert against the Saints in Week 5.
Current Situation
Right now Moore is just waiting for his next chance to go under center in live action for the Panthers. He is now backing up both David Carr and Vinny Testaverde for Carolina, but with Carr suffering from concussions and Testaverde having issues with his Achilles' tendon, Moore could be the go-to QB before the end of the year.
Spotlight ETA
Any week could be Moore's big shot to show what he can do. Moore has to be ready each week to go in at a moment's notice (which he did do in Week 9 against Tennessee). The situation is certainly a surprising one for Moore considering he wasn't even a Panther three months ago and now he could be the starting QB with one more injury.
Dynasty Upside
Should Moore wind up with the starting QB job in Carolina, he immediately benefits from having a stud WR in Steve Smith and capable hands at TE in Jeff King along with two good RBs that can run and catch out of the backfield (DeShaun Foster and DeAngelo Williams). The Panthers also have viable candidates for WR2, WR3 and WR4 which can stretch the field (Drew Carter) or move the chains and go over the middle (Keary Colbert and Dwayne Jarrett are candidates here). The upside scenario is Jake Delhomme type numbers attached to Matt Moore's name.
Final Thoughts
There are no guarantees in life or in the NFL, but Matt Moore is capable of coming in and becoming a starting NFL quarterback. Should he get that chance in Carolina, either this year or beyond, there is a good supporting cast that is also relatively young enough for Moore to succeed for a multi-year window of opportunity. Moore caught the eye of two organizations (Dallas and Carolina) which is interesting in and of itself because Moore wasn't even drafted. Ron Jaworski raved about Matt Moore on Day 2 of the NFL Draft, saying that he was "the best quarterback prospect after JaMarcus Russell, Brady Quinn and Trent Edwards." That's a powerful statement from the ex-NFL QB, and that's enough to make you take notice and keep an eye on Matt Moore.
Michael Lewis, SS, San Francisco 49ers
What has he done so far
Lewis had a solid career in Philadelphia for his first five seasons in the league. During that time, he amassed 312 solo tackles, 67 assists, 6 sacks, 6 forced fumbles, 6 fumble recoveries, 9 interceptions and 33 pass defenses. He signed with San Francisco as a free agent over the summer.
Current Situation
Lewis has been nicked up for part of the season, but he's come back strong in his last three games. He has 18 solo tackles, 5 assists, 1 FR, 1 INT and 1 PD during that stretch. More importantly he has come on strong as the 49er offense has begun to struggle. With the defense being on the field for the majority of the game, a starting SS like Lewis makes an excellent DB addition to your fantasy squad.
Spotlight ETA
Lewis is on a tear this season. He's already surpassed his 2006 totals in most fantasy categories, and is currently ranked 24th among fantasy DBs. That's pretty solid for a guy who is a waiver wire addition in most leagues. Given the Niners' offensive woes (only 51 points over the last six games), Lewis should make a serious run at his 2005 stats where he finished as the #6 fantasy DB in the league.
Dynasty Upside
Lewis had three seasons where he finished in the top 24 for fantasy DBs. (15, 22, 6), and is playing well enough to finish there this season. Despite being in his sixth NFL season, Lewis is only 27 years old and in the prime of his career. The 49ers are a couple years away from developing a consistent offense, and that will give their defensive players a chance to make up some serious points in garbage time.
Final Thoughts
He's 27 years old, putting up solid DB numbers on a team that will finish near the bottom of the pile in offensive yardage. Lewis was an excellent addition to San Francisco during the off season and is putting up solid numbers after a slow start. He's under contract with the 49ers for the next six seasons, but he probably won't finish out his contract. Given his great stats though, you can expect Lewis to be in San Francisco for at least another two seasons, and that makes him an excellent player for your defensive rival.
Players You Should Already Be Watching
Antonio Pittman, RB, St. Louis Rams
Pittman busted off one 43 yard run that almost turned into a TD, then the Rams left him in at the goal line, but he could not convert. It had to be sweet revenge for Pittman to run on the team that cut him in training camp. Pittman is vying to pass Brian Leonard as the primary first and second down backup to Steven Jackson, and he should be added to Jackson owners' rosters as a partial handcuff if roster space allows.
Leonard Pope, TE, Arizona Cardinals
With Anquan Boldin still ailing, Pope is getting more looks in the Arizona passing offense. The second year TE seems like the designated target on passes at the 1 yard line, and he got free downfield twice in last week's game vs. the Lions. Pope is actually in the top 10 among TEs in receiving TDs, and he was a viable start two out of the last three weeks, and he was the second highest scoring TE last week. You could do a lot worse for a backup TE for the playoffs in case your starter goes down.
Kyle Boller, QB, Baltimore Ravens
We are pretty sure that we have seen this show before, but the Raven Rewind is about to happen yet again. Kyle Boller should be the starting QB for the Baltimore Ravens for the rest of the year as "Air McNair" has been completely deflated. Boller is signed through next season and with young receivers (Mark Clayton, Demetrius Williams) aching to stretch the field and compliment the short passing game that has been the entire passing game all season, Boller could be poised for big second half numbers. If TE Todd Heap can stay healthy and Derrick Mason continue to move the chains, Boller could be a shrewd pickup for this year and beyond.
Hank Baskett, WR, Philadelphia Eagles
Donovan McNabb is starting to get in gear again, and he's distributing the ball to anyone who is open. Over the past two weeks against Dallas and Washington he has racked up six short catches on seven targets, but with the Eagles throwing more often and Baskett lining up as the third receiver, he could easily start getting more looks. Couple this with the fact that the undrafted WR from New Mexico State is the biggest target McNabb has (6'4", 215 lbs.) and you may start to see more looks in the end zone. Should either Reggie Brown or Kevin Curtis succumb to an injury, Baskett could find himself in the starting lineup for one of the most pass-happy offenses in the NFL.
Antonio Cromartie, CB, San Diego Chargers
The horse has left the barn on this one already right? Cromartie has been picked up in many leagues already and people are excited to have the CB who has six interceptions in his last four games. The guy is a super star right? Well let the other guys in your league jump on him now because now that Quentin Jammer is back from injury, Cromartie is moving back to the bench. He's going to be dropped as quickly as he was picked up. You don't want Cromartie now unless you have roster space to burn. When you want Cromartie is right before the end of the season because he's going to get a shot to be the starter in 2008. Drayton Florence is only under contract to the end of the season and Jammer's base contract doubles in price after 2008. Cromartie is going to see his time, but it won't be now, it will be for next season.
Jason David, CB, New Orleans Saints
David started out the season strong, and then he missed three games with a forearm injury. He's healthy now and he's amassed 13 solo tackles and two assists over the last two weeks and had another interception. This is his fourth season in the NFL, but his first season with the Saints. The jury is still out on if David is a guy who is going to be a solid IDP starter yet, but he's worth keeping an eye on again. This week he returns to Indianapolis, the team that drafted him four seasons ago. If he turns in another 6-7 solo tackles, he might be worth a roster slot. Keep an eye on this kid.
