Dynasty Watch - Week 10
Posted 11/8 by Jeff Tefertiller, William Grant, and Jeff Pasquino, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
The purpose of this column is to spotlight deeper roster moves that could pay off big over the course of the season. Unless stated in a player's write up, we're not looking for one-week wonders here, but shark moves that could really strengthen your team down the road.
Dynasty Watch focuses on low risk, huge payoff roster moves that you might be able make before the guys in your league think about it. This aim of this column is to make you look like a genius to the other owners in your league. When news breaks and the other owners are scrambling to make a waiver wire move, we want them to be upset time and time again that the player is already on your squad.
Chad Jackson, WR, New England Patriots
What has he done so far
Jackson showed his deep speed during his rookie season, but he also showed suspect hands on a few deep balls, and general lack of polish. Jackson did catch 13 balls for 152 yards and three TDs on only 19 targets, showing the big play capacity that made the Pats take him in the early second round of the 06 draft. He tore his ACL late in 2006, and was placed on the PUP for the first half of the 2007 season. The Patriots are currently expected to promote him to the active roster for the stretch run.
Current Situation
Assuming Jackson gets activated, he would probably get some work in four WR sets, and maybe some work on special teams, but there's no way he would become an integral part of the Patriots 2007 passing attack barring an injury to one of the top three WRs.
Spotlight ETA
2008. Randy Moss only signed a one year deal, although the Patriots are likely to make a strong bid to retain him. Donte Stallworth is due a six million dollar roster bonus in February, it's highly unlikely that he sees one cent of that, which opens the door for Jackson to become the #3 WR in the best passing attack in the league.
Dynasty Upside
Any WR who has Tom Brady throwing him the ball has significant upside. Jackson does not any physical tools, he's got great natural size, speed, and toughness, he just needs polish, as he came out as a junior. After seeing what the new look Patriots passing game can do, top 20 upside is not out of the question for Jackson, and if they allow Moss to move on in 2009 or 2010, Jackson could be a top 10 fantasy WR as long as Brady is around.
Final Thoughts
Chad Jackson is still one of the most physically gifted young WRs in the league, and he's set to become part of quite possibly the best passing game the NFL has ever seen. The buy low window will extend to next season, but once he's on the field regularly, Jackson might become untouchable. Make a move for him while he's still just a throw-in. He should not be on waivers in any dynasty league.
Chris Henry, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
What has he done so far
Chris Henry has had a tough time staying out of trouble throughout his brief NFL career. The former West Virginia star has played very well as the Bengals third receiver. In his two years in the NFL, Henry has 67 receptions for 1027 yards and 15 touchdowns. He is a true playmaker, causing difficult matchups for opposing defenses.
Current Situation
Henry is the unquestioned WR3 for the Bengals. In fact, his presence in that role causes matchups issues for teams trying to defend all three starting receivers. With the head and neck injury to Chad Johnson in week nine, Henry will get even more targets in the coming weeks. The 24-year old is a huge endzone threat, scoring nine times in 2006. With the problems in the Bengal running game, fantasy owners can expect Carson Palmer and the three receivers to carry the Cincinnati offense in the near future.
Spotlight ETA
Chris Henry has been arrested several times in his short career. The only knock on him is his character off of the field. He and former Mountaineer teammate, Adam (Pacman) Jones, have had multiple issues with the law. As long as Henry can stay out of trouble, he will be considered a top young receiver prospect. His next arrest might be his last in the NFL. Commissioner Goodell has not been patient with players who have had multiple encounters with the police.
Dynasty Upside
Chris Henry has the potential to be a top fantasy receiver. He has the upside to be a fantasy WR1 going forward. In the offense quarterbacked by Carson Palmer, the three-year pro can be elite. If Chad Johnson is traded in the offseason, as rumored, Henry can be a fantasy receiver that is a must start each week, like Johnson and Houshmandzadeh are now. The only hurdle for Henry to overcome is proving that he can stay out of trouble.
Final Thoughts
Chris Henry is a great receiver to acquire as long as he can stay out of trouble. With the Chad Johnson injury, Henry will have a prominent role in the Bengal offense going forward. Expect good numbers from Chris Henry, especially in the redzone.
Calvin Pace, LB, Arizona Cardinals
What has he done so far
Pace was a first round pick for the Cardinals back in 2003, and was 18th overall in that year's draft. His first four seasons have been nothing to write home about, and he's never ranked higher than 112th among fantasy LBs. His totals from his first three years: 66 solo tackles, 18 assists, 7.5 sacks, 4 forced fumbles and 6 pass defenses.
Current Situation
Pace has been seeing extended playing time due to the injury to Chike Okeafor, and Pace has made the most of his opportunities. He's also playing for a contract extension, making him much more motivated to rack up the stats. Through eight games he has 35 solo tackles, 10 assists, 2 sacks, 1 INT and 3 PDs. He currently ranks 47th among fantasy LBs.
Spotlight ETA
Pace's stock is on the rise, and he has had nine solo tackles in each of his last two games. He is showing great promise in the new 3-4 defense that the Cardinals are running, and he's finally coming into his own as a player. As the offense continues to struggle, Pace is going to see a lot more opportunity to make plays on defense.
Dynasty Upside
At his current rate, Pace will finish in the top 20 for fantasy LBs. by the end of the season. He's had a few low points here and there, but in general, he looks like a guy who's going to post 10 or more fantasy points per game. He's a free agent at the end of this season and stands to receive an excellent pay increase from either the Cardinals or another team. He's proven that he can be a 16 game starter, and he should finally start to live up to his first round potential.
Final Thoughts
Pace has been off to a slow start, and that may be due to his youth and lack of solid experience when he came to the NFL. This season he's flourished in the new Cardinal defense, and they'd be crazy to let him go to free agency when the season is over. Ken Whisenhunt and Russ Grimm know how to build a solid defense, and if Pace is re-signed in the off season, he's going to be a focal point in their defense going forward. He's probably still a waiver wire pickup in most leagues, and he has excellent long term potential.
Players You Should Already Be Watching
Paul Williams, WR, Tennessee Titans
Williams is yet to be activated for game day in his rookie season after being drafted in the third round by a WR poor team. Good news about Williams finally came last week in form of praise from Mike Reinfeldt. "You're starting to see some of the attributes he has," he said. "People do it at different speeds and you can see he has gotten better over the last several weeks." The Titans are without a true #1 WR, and Williams has the physical ability to be a #1, he just needs to get his head on straight. The positive buzz is more than enough to merit using the last spot on your roster on Williams in the hope that he emerges in 2008.
Troy Smith, QB, Baltimore Ravens
Smith has been inactive for all but two games this year as the third quarterback, and he didn't exactly light up training camp, barely beating out Drew Olson for that #3 spot. Still, it's clear that Steve McNair is done, and Kyle Boller is probably only the answer for next year, if at all. Smith will get a chance to get good reps in training camp in 2008, and with Boller's injury history, don't be surprised if he gets a chance to start at some point. He's got the profile of a solid fantasy QB, with good running ability and a great deep arm, the main question is improving his polish as a passer and game manager, and his height. He's definitely worth carrying into 2008 if your dynasty team is looking for answers at QB.
Michael Bush, RB, Oakland Raiders
Michael Bush should be seeing more action as the season progresses. He was activated from the Physically Unable to perform list and is practicing. Lamont Jordan has been ineffective and is playing behind Justin Fargas. This is great news for the bruising rookie from Louisville. The Raiders are 2-6 and will want to see what they have in their promising rookie. Expect Bush to see extended time as the season progresses.
Brandon Jackson, RB, Green Bay Packers
Brandon Jackson is a player that was left for dead by many fantasy owners after his injury, and then pushed to the end of the pecking order for Packer running backs. But, with the injury to Wynn, Jackson is now back in the picture. Vernand Morency has carved out the third-down back role. So, the rookie from Nebraska is the backup to Ryan Grant, the oft injured, quasi-rookie from Notre Dame. The season is only half over. There is a lot of time for Brandon Jackson to get his rookie season back on track. He carried the ball five times for eighteen yards in week nine.
Josh Bullocks, FS, New Orleans Saints
Bullocks was a second round pick for the Saints back in 2005 and until now, his performance has been OK from a fantasy DB prospective. He finished 98th as a rookie and 76th last season, with an average of 55 solo tackles and 14 assists per season. This season Bullocks is off to a much stronger start, but his performance has been all over the place. Bullocks has three games with seven or more solo tackles, and 4 games with three of less. He also missed one game due to a knee injury. As the Saints begin to improve, they are going to look to their defense to make more plays. Bullocks is going to get more opportunities as teams are going to have to pass to beat the Saints. Currently he's ranked 32nd among fantasy DBs and he's an excellent pickup with good fantasy upside for years to come.
Adam Archuleta, SS, Chicago Bears
Last season Archuleta disappeared from Washington's radar and many owners released him during the off season. He moved to Chicago over the summer and had a mixed performance right out of the gate, which left him on the waiver wire in most dynasty leagues. However, Archuleta's performance has been very consistent over the last couple weeks and coming off the bye week, he is ranked 34th among fantasy DBs after seven games with 35 tackles, 5 assists, 1 sack, 1 forced fumble, 1 fumble recovery, 1 interception and 2 pass defenses. Lately the Bears have been very vulnerable on defense, and many running plays are reaching the secondary. With Mike Brown on IR again, Archuleta is going to have many opportunities to rack up those tackles and assists which are the bread and butter of fantasy IDPs.
