Pre-Auction Comments

  Posted 8/24 by Staff, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

On August 19th, fourteen Footballguys staffers and message board members got together for a Survivor auction. Before the auction started, we asked each of them a series of questions. Hopefully, their answers will help you prepare for your auction.


League Rules

  1. Rosters are 24 players.

  2. Scores will be determined to the hundredth of a point by adding up:
    • the highest scoring QB
    • the two highest scoring RBs
    • the three highest scoring WRs
    • the highest scoring TE
    • the highest flex (RB/WR/TE not used already)
    • the highest scoring kicker
    • the highest scoring defense
    each week per roster. Scores reset after each week.

  3. Teams will play every other team every week. The highest scoring team will go 13-0 that week. The second highest scoring team will get 12-1. Etc.

League Scoring (WCOFF Rules)

  • Yards passing divided by 20 (e.g. 215 passing yards = 10.75 fantasy points).
  • 4 points for every passing TD.
  • Minus one point (-1) for every interception thrown.
  • Yards rushing divided by 10 (e.g. 89 rushing yards = 8.9 fantasy points).
  • 6 points for every rushing TD.
  • 1 point for every catch.
  • 1 point for every Extra Point
  • 3 points for every FG of 1 – 30 yards
    • plus .1 point for every yard thereafter (e.g. 43-yard FG = 4.3 fantasy points)
  • Defensive Scoring
    • 1 point for every sack
    • 2 points for every team takeaway (interception or fumble recovery)
    • 6 points for every TD (via interception return, fumble return, punt or kickoff return, blocked FG return, missed FG return, blocked punt return)
    • 2 points for every safety
    • 5 points for a shutout
    • 2 points for 5 or fewer points allowed
    • 1 point for 6-10 points allowed

EastBayFunk

You have $200 cap to spread against 24 players. How many of each position you are looking to have and how much budget is allocated to the positions. ie 3 QBs - $28 budget, 6 RBs - $98 budget, etc.
My planned breakdown is as follows:

  • QB - 2-3 players for a total of $20-30.
  • RB - 3-5 players for a total of $115-125.
  • WR - 9-10 players for a total of $30
  • TE - 3-4 players for a total of $15
  • PK - 2 players for a total of $2-4.
  • DEF - 2-3 players for a total of $2.

Name three players you expect to land. These are likely people you think will smash their ADP and therefore would be willing to pay more than the average cost to get the player. Why are you targeting these players? What do you see in their games/opportunities that makes them the key to winning this league?

  • Eagles WR Kevin Curtis - I think Curtis is a solid player who will take advantage of his opportunity to start. He lacks elite upside and probably isn't a great pick in leagues that require you to name your starters each week, but he's a perfect fit for the best ball format because he comes cheap and should produce solid numbers. I expect 700-900 yards with plenty of catches and a handful of scores.
  • Raiders WR Ronald Curry - Curry is another solid sleeper who fits well with the best ball format. He has produced when healthy and seems to be entrenched as a starter in Oakland. I look for him to get a handful of catches each week with the potential for semi-regular big games. I like him as a depth pick who should contribute a decent score to my team each week.
  • Bears WR Bernard Berrian - Berrian earned a reputation for burning defenses deep last year. And while many still view him strictly as a deep threat, I think he has a chance to emerge as Chicago's clear #1 WR this season. Even if he only matches last year's totals, he's a solid WR whose big play flair gives him the kind of big game potential that I covet in this format. If his price tag is reasonable, I'll try to add him to my team.

Will you be invoking any handcuffs in this auction? If so which ones are you targeting and how many dollars will you allocate to try and get this handcuff?
I don't plan on selecting any handcuffs. I think the key to a best ball league is quality depth. You want to have several guys competing each week to fill your starting spots. And while there's considerable upside to landing the next breakout handcuff like Larry Johnson or Ladell Betts, I think the cap money is better spent on players who are surefire bets to contribute to your team. You just can't afford to take zeroes each week in a league like this and it's almost impossible to predict which starting RBs/QBs will get injured.

There are 10 official starters that count towards your roster each week. How much money will you budget for your top QB, top 2 RBs, top 3 WRs, top TE, top flex, top defense and top PK? (186 is max). Tell us why you think this ratio is ideal for this league style.
RB will probably be my heaviest area of spending by a wide margin. RBs are expensive. Good ones are hard to come by. So it's typically necessary to spend 50-60% of your cap to secure a good group of backs. Look for me to spend between $45-55 on my top RB. I won't pay for Tomlinson or Jackson, but I am interested in Parker, Addai, Westbrook, Bush, Gore, Henry, and Alexander as my RB1. The real goal for me here is to get one top tier player and two other guys who have a realistic chance of putting up a good game each week.

As far as QBs are concerned, I want to make a run at McNabb, Palmer, or Bulger. I will probably have to pay between $15-25 for one of these four. I'd like to add a solid second tier player with good job security as my second QB. Hasselbeck, Roethlisberger, E. Manning, Rivers, and Leinart are some guys on my short list. I expect to pay between $7-12 for my second QB. I think it's important to give yourself two passers with good job security and big game potential.

WR is where I plan on saving my cash. I did a study last year on WRs and best ball auction costs. My results showed that players who offer the best big games per auction dollar ratio tend to be the WRs in the 25-35 range. These guys lack the price tag of the top dogs, but still produce good results. I think I can approximate the production of 3-4 elite WRs by loading up my roster with 8-10 bargain bin guys. So don't expect me to spend on a top 20 WR. I'm going to save that cash and use it on other positions while stocking up on modest WRs who will start for their NFL teams. I expect to pay no more than $12 for any of my WRs. I'm hoping to pay about $4-6 on average for my top 3-4 and $1-2 for my bottom guys.

I intend to use a three-headed committee approach at TE. My goal is to land three guys out of the following group: Heath Miller, Marcedes Lewis, Daniel Graham, Chris Baker, Alex Smith, and Bo Scaife. I think I can get them for $3-5 each.

I'm willing to pay a slight premium at PK to ensure that I get two players with good job security, but I'll probably end up targeting boring vets like Phil Dawson ad Ryan Longwell. These guys aren't great options, but they score some points each week and you know they aren't going to lose their jobs in the middle of the season.

I never spend heavily on defenses because I think you can always find good teams for cheap. I'm hoping to grab two young undervalued units like the Saints and 49ers for the $1 minimum.

What will you do differently in this auction because the league is played as a Bestball format?
The main difference for me is more emphasis on depth, particularly at the WR slot. In a league that requires you to name your starters each week, you can take more gambles on high upside backups because your backups probably won't ever start for your team anyway. But in a best ball league there's much more incentive to avoid speculative picks and instead focus on solid depth. The reason for this is obvious. It doesn't help you to have 5 top 15 WRs in a starting lineup league because you can only start 3-4 of them. But in a league like this you get to play your top guys each week. So if someone blows up on your bench, you reap the rewards.

What is your nomination strategy in early rounds of the auction? middle rounds of the auction? and towards the end?
My nomination strategy is very simple. I will nominate the top available WR that I have no intention of buying. For example, I know that I don't want to pay top dollar for a WR. But I also know that lots of people will be after guys like Steve Smith and Larry Fitzgerald. So I will nominate these players in hopes of eliminating opposing team cap space while simultaneously lowering the demand for WRs by stuffing the other teams' rosters full of them. If other teams have already spent heavily on multiple WRs, they will be less able to snipe me when I try to steal my bargain bin guys. They will also have less money to spend on the RBs, QBs, and TEs that I covet.

I may also nominate expensive RBs like Tomlinson, LJ, and Jackson just to eliminate competition and burn cap space.

I will not nominate any players that I hope to buy until it's late enough in the auction that my bids won't get a lot of counter bids. Once teams have burned their cap space, it's easier to make a big bid that other owners can't afford to top.

Some people might criticize this nomination strategy as being too predictable. Won't the other owners notice that I never win the players that I nominate? Won't they know that I have no intention of buying the guys I nominate? Probably not. But it doesn't matter either way. Because even though I have zero intention of paying for Steve Smith, there are 13 other owners in the auction. And if at least two of them want Smith, then there will be a bidding war regardless of the fact that I won't be involved. So it really doesn't matter if teams realize you never win your nominations.

Is your plan to spend cap aggressively and fill many spots at the minimum later, wait for great values and try to control the middle/ends of drafts, etc? If you had to guess, how many players do you think you will have rostered after the first 50 nominations? after the first 100 nominations?
I tend to be a slow spender in auction leagues. So while I'll bid fiercely to secure my top few players, I'm not going to try to run the auction. I'm going to sit back and let the values come to me. As players that fit my plan are nominated, I'll compete to buy them. But I'll try to avoid insane bidding wars. Cap space is precious in these leagues. Spending an extra 3-4 dollars on a player early in the auction can cripple you in the late going when quality sleepers are coming off the board for 1-3 dollars.

Name the three most important things to winning this league? How will you ensure that you stay to this gameplan if the auction doesn't go as predicted?
The first thing that comes to mind is depth. In a league like this, it really pays to have quality depth. If you have 2-3 quality players competing for 1 starting spot each week, chances are you're going to end up getting a good score out of that spot.

It's also important to have some firepower. Even though depth is important in these leagues, you're at a big disadvantage if you don't have some players who can put up the monster type games. There will inevitably be teams that have guys going off huge each week. You have to be able to compete with that, meaning you have to find a way to give yourself a chance at stud production from every starting position.

The third thing is just being smart with your money. I've been involved in several auctions over the past few years. Inevitably some team will cripple itself by spending huge for the top RB or by overpaying dearly for a hyped rookie. I don't want to be the team that pays top 5 money for a top 15 back. It seems to happen almost every year that I've done an auction.

Overall, my strategy is simple. Maximize your money. Make every purchase count. Avoid busts. Buy players who have a good chance to outperform their price tag. This is how you get ahead in these leagues.


David Dodds

You have $200 cap to spread against 24 players. How many of each position you are looking to have and how much budget is allocated to the positions. ie 3 QBs - $28 budget, 6 RBs - $98 budget, etc.

  • 3 QBs - $25
  • 5 QBs - $95
  • 8 WRs - $68
  • 2 TEs - $14
  • 2 PKs - $2
  • 4 Defs - $6

Name three players you expect to land. These are likely people you think will smash their ADP and therefore would be willing to pay more than the average cost to get the player. Why are you targeting these players? What do you see in their games/opportunities that makes them the key to winning this league?
I like TJ Houshmandzadeh a lot and will be going to the wall to get him on my team. Guys like Fred Taylor, DeShaun Foster, Leon Washington are all players that I project for more stats than most FBGs. My RB strategy revolves around getting some of these guys to go with a stud like Willie Parker.

Will you be invoking any handcuffs in this auction? If so which ones are you targeting and how many dollars will you allocate to try and get this handcuff?
I love the Wade/Williamson WR handcuff for cheap. I may back up my top QB and top RB if the price is right. I generally avoid a lot of handcuffs though as I prefer to have weekly starters going every week in this type of format.

There are 10 official starters that count towards your roster each week. How much money will you budget for your top QB, top 2 RBs, top 3 WRs, top TE, top flex, top defense and top PK? (186 is max). Tell us why you think this ratio is ideal for this league style.
In a survivor auction, I will budget about 70-75% of my cap for these positions. In a typical auction, I would likely scale that up to 80-85% of the cap for the starters.

What will you do differently in this auction because the league is played as a Bestball format?
I am looking to target high reception players as I think that is a key to winning Survivor PPR leagues. Give me a player who consistently catches 6 passes a game over the variance of a big TD scorer. TDs fluctuate a lot each year, while receptions are a bit more stable. I actually hope to land 4 defenses in this format. Seems overkill, but defenses have high variability each week. So getting a bunch at $1-$2 late should make that a strength of this team.

What is your nomination strategy in early rounds of the auction? middle rounds of the auction? and towards the end?
My main goal is to create squeezes early. Once I get my top RB, I will keep nominating top backs to drain the cap. In the middle stages, I like to introduce players sure to go for the minimum at the end at $1 or $2. If they get bid up, they create a vacuum for better players at the minimum later. At the end, I will nominate kickers and defenses for a $1 that I want, but won't bid $2 for.

Is your plan to spend cap aggressively and fill many spots at the minimum later, wait for great values and try to control the middle/ends of drafts, etc? If you had to guess, how many players do you think you will have rostered after the first 50 nominations? after the first 100 nominations?
I am strongly considering going after Tomlinson and then sitting back for a LONG time. I will have a top 7 back for sure and probably a top 10 WR. I then think I will go after a lot of 4th-6th round talent and then finish with a bunch of $2-3 players.

Name the three most important things to winning this league? How will you ensure that you stay to this gameplan if the auction doesn't go as predicted?

  1. Grabbing extra defenses. I won the WCOFF DraftMasters one year and had 5 defenses.
  2. Grabbing RBs and WRs that can catch.
  3. Waiting forever to take your QBs. The WCOFF format minimizes this position a lot.

pizzatyme

You have $200 cap to spread against 24 players. How many of each position you are looking to have and how much budget is allocated to the positions. ie 3 QBs - $28 budget, 6 RBs - $98 budget, etc.
My plan going in is to get:

  • 3-4 QBs in a QBBC approach- $24 Budget
  • 6-7 RBs- $92 Budget
  • 6-7 WRs- $64 Budget
  • 2-3 TEs- $8 Budget
  • 2-3 DEF- $6 Budget
  • 2 K- $6 Budget

Name three players you expect to land. These are likely people you think will smash their ADP and therefore would be willing to pay more than the average cost to get the player. Why are you targeting these players? What do you see in their games/opportunities that makes them the key to winning this league?

  • DeShaun Foster- With the new running scheme in place and most people expecting DeAngelo Williams to take over, I feel Foster is very under-valued. Foster is still the starter and since I don't project injuries, I think he has the potential to amass high RB2 numbers for a low RB3 price.
  • Adrian Peterson- I feel like the Vikings brought him in to be the featured back. With his current ADP of a low RB2, I feel he has a very high upside.
  • Jerious Norwood- He is a RB3 ADP with the upside of a high RB2. Obviously there are big questions to be answered in Atlanta with the absence of Vick, but I'm willing to roll he dice here on Norwood. He is in a great position to highly outperform his ADP.

Will you be invoking any handcuffs in this auction? If so which ones are you targeting and how many dollars will you allocate to try and get this handcuff?
I do anticipate taking handcuffs at the RB position; however it is tough to say which ones as it depends on how the draft goes. For instance, if I secure Ahman Green, I would Dayne. I would probably be looking at spending $5-6 for Dayne, but would go to $8 to make sure to get him. I don't anticipate taking handcuffs at the QB position due to my QBBC approach.

There are 10 official starters that count towards your roster each week. How much money will you budget for your top QB, top 2 RBs, top 3 WRs, top TE, top flex, top defense and top PK? (186 is max). Tell us why you think this ratio is ideal for this league style.

  • QBBC- $16
  • RBs- $47
  • WRs- $40
  • TE- $4
  • Flex- $15
  • DEF- $3
  • K- $3

This comes to $128 or 64% of my budget for starters. In a Best Ball format using WCOFFs scoring and Draft Masters approach, I feel like it is very important to stay away from the top-end RBs as they really handcuff your ability to field a balanced team. Also, by budgeting a lower percentage to my starters going in, I can let the draft come to me and I can jump up and grab a top $ talent if they are being undervalued. Outside of the top 2 QBs, top 2 RBs and top TE, there is a lot of depth in those next tiers of players at each position and who knows which ones bust. However, they will all go for more than I'm likely willing to pay. An example of this is, I'm not confident LJ @ $58 is going to outscore Parker @ $42. I'm not interested in LJ at that price, and unless Parker goes for less than $42, I wouldn't have an interest in him either. I'd consider LJ a bust at that price if he didn't finish in the top 5 RBs.

What will you do differently in this auction because the league is played as a Bestball format?
As I stated above, give me quality depth across my whole team with the expectation that each week, I will get top performances from different players.

What is your nomination strategy in early rounds of the auction? middle rounds of the auction? and towards the end?

  • Early- I expect the early rounds to be filled with mostly top $ players, so I will try to nominate my WRs then to secure as many below their current ADP as possible. This will allow me more flexibility to go after my strategy and possibly snag an under-valued top talent as well.
  • Middle- This is where I will be most active if my plan goes as scheduled. I see this as a recovery time for those that spent (or over-spent) on the LTs, Mannings, and Chad Johnsons of the draft. They will now be trying to get as much value as possible and I can bid as I want to get my preferred players.
  • Late- I expect to have extra dollars available in the late rounds compared to most. This way I can hopefully outbid others to upgrade my depth at all positions except my QBBC.

Is your plan to spend cap aggressively and fill many spots at the minimum later, wait for great values and try to control the middle/ends of drafts, etc? If you had to guess, how many players do you think you will have rostered after the first 50 nominations? after the first 100 nominations?
As I stated above, going into this draft, I want to lay back and control the middle and late parts of the draft. However, I'm prepared to alter that plan if I see too many others with the same plan. Not everyone can lay back, nor can everyone be aggressive. With the experts in this league, everyone will be flexible in their strategies, I expect.

  • After 50 nominations I expect to have 3-4 players rostered. I will have nominated at least 3 of whom I wanted and then maybe I snag someone else's nominee.
  • After 100 nominations I think I'll have 8-10 players. After about 80 picks is where I see many of the players I would have interest in starting to get nominated.

Name the three most important things to winning this league? How will you ensure that you stay to this gameplan if the auction doesn't go as predicted?
To me, the three most important things to winning this league are:

  1. Have enough depth so that an injury doesn't kill your team.
  2. Get the players I want within the range I've allocated.
  3. Be patient and avoid the temptation of getting that stud RB, even if the go for a few $ less than what I had them valued.

I'm not married to this gameplan, so if someone like a Tom Brady falls to me for $5 less than I have him valued, then this gives me the ability to adjust the gameplan and upgrade at other positions. Again, with the experts in this league, I expect fewer surprises, therefore I hope my primary gameplan delivers me the type of team that can compete for the championship!


LHUCKS

You have $200 cap to spread against 24 players. How many of each position you are looking to have and how much budget is allocated to the positions. ie 3 QBs - $28 budget, 6 RBs - $98 budget, etc.

  • 3 QBs - $22
  • 5 RBs - $90
  • 9 WRs - $60
  • 2 TEs - $20
  • 2 Ks - $2
  • 3 Ds - $6

Name three players you expect to land. These are likely people you think will smash their ADP and therefore would be willing to pay more than the average cost to get the player. Why are you targeting these players? What do you see in their games/opportunities that makes them the key to winning this league?

  • Troy Williamson - His is the clear #1 in Minnesota and given Williamson's ability to make the big play I believe he'll contribute several weeks in the survivor format for a bargain price.
  • Devery Henderson - I like Hendersons potential to periodically put up big games given his strong preseason and strong finish to '06 with a very lofty YPC.
  • Byron Leftwich - Byron has finished top 10 in PPG each of the last two years and he's had an excellent camp. Under the helm of new OC Dirk Koetter I expect Leftwich's numbers to easily surpass general expectations. Byron should be the perfect backup in this format.

Will you be invoking any handcuffs in this auction? If so which ones are you targeting and how many dollars will you allocate to try and get this handcuff?
I don't like handcuffing in general in this format but some of the handcuffs I might consider this year include Adrian Petersen(CHI), Mike Bell and Reuben Droughns. In my opinion roster spots are best spent on players that will play week in and week out, not on players that are backups.

There are 10 official starters that count towards your roster each week. How much money will you budget for your top QB, top 2 RBs, top 3 WRs, top TE, top flex, top defense and top PK? (186 is max). Tell us why you think this ratio is ideal for this league style.

  • QB - 15
  • RB - 60
  • WR - 35
  • TE - 15
  • Flex - 20
  • Def - 4
  • PK - 1

What will you do differently in this auction because the league is played as a Bestball format?
First, I slightly downgrade players that have early byes. Second, I place an emphasis on WR depth because the relative scoring volatility of the position requires depth for consistent scoring. Third, I will attempt to land blue chip players at RB1 and QB1. Fourth, I target players at all positions that are TD threats.

What is your nomination strategy in early rounds of the auction? middle rounds of the auction? and towards the end?
In general if the prices have been high for recently nominated players at a given position I will nominate players that I believe will be overpriced in that position. If the prices are low, I will nominate players that are underpriced in hopes of nabbing them while the market is depressed. In many auctions prices start too high so I will nominate players that I don't want in the beginning. In the middle and late rounds I will nominate a mix of players that I do and do not like so that other drafters cannot read my strategy.

Is your plan to spend cap aggressively and fill many spots at the minimum later, wait for great values and try to control the middle/ends of drafts, etc? If you had to guess, how many players do you think you will have rostered after the first 50 nominations? after the first 100 nominations?
My strategy will be to wait for value. I will try to control the late rounds most likely with slightly above average bids on WRs ranked in the 30-80 range. Of the first 50 I would expect only 2-3 players. Of the first 100 I would expect about 6.

Name the three most important things to winning this league? How will you ensure that you stay to this gameplan if the auction doesn't go as predicted?

  1. RB Strength - Teams without top 10 RBs will not have a chance. I will pay whatever price necessary for a top 10 RB.
  2. WR Depth - I will go 9 deep at WR at a minimum. To ensure solid WR depth I will spend conservatively on QB/TE/K/D.
  3. Draft Players that Start - Drafting an entire roster of players that will contribute on a weekly basis is crucial for consistent, high scoring IMHO. Stay away from players in position battles

amphibianbri

You have $200 cap to spread against 24 players. How many of each position you are looking to have and how much budget is allocated to the positions. ie 3 QBs - $28 budget, 6 RBs - $98 budget, etc.

  • QB - 3 - $18 --> I'm not spending for one of the big guys here. I'm looking more for a combo of Cutler, Favre, Roethlisberger, Grossman, Rivers and let the best ball format work to my advantage
  • RB - 6 - $110 --> Here's where I spend most of my money. I'm looking for two guys in the top 15 for around $90, a solid #3 like F Taylor or B Jackson for $10, and the rest will be backups with an opportunity if a stud goes down. I may even spend an extra $5 to $10 here if I can save a few bucks at QB or WR.
  • WR - 8 - $60 --> Looking for a solid 1A/2B type for around $18-$20 (Walker, Evans, Boldin), and then 2-3 guys in $6-8 range that might be projected as WR#3 with potential. Again, I don't have to have allof these guys hit every week to be successful, so with WR being kind of unpredictable, I would rather spread the wealth here. Many late auction sleepers to be had for less $$.
  • TE - 2 - $7 --> I might get lucky and get a better TE for about $7 (Cooley, Winslow, etc), but if I get a lower end guy like Witten and get an decent #2 option that's ok too.
  • K - 2 - $2 - no need to spend big bucks on kickers. The only way I spend $2 on a kicker is if kickers on teams that actually score are all going, but I don't see that happening in a shark auction
  • D/T - 3 - $3 - Again, I go with quantity here hoping that matchups give me a solid output each week. I've noticed a few teams that I see as having a possibility of top 10 defenses going for $1 in auctions. If I snag two of them, I can score like someone with one of the top 5.

Name three players you expect to land. These are likely people you think will smash their ADP and therefore would be willing to pay more than the average cost to get the player. Why are you targeting these players? What do you see in their games/opportunities that makes them the key to winning this league?

  • Rex Grossman - No, I'm not drinking too much of the Bears Kool-Aid. In a best ball format, Grossman is the perfect cheap QB. I don't have to worry about the "Bad Rex" weeks, as I'll hopefully have two other QB's to choose from for those weeks. Just look at this offense now. Upgrades with Olsen and Hester. Grossman has a year of experience and a Super Bowl run under his belt. From camp reports and what I saw when I was there, he is not throwing off of his back foot as much and seems to have more confidence. I love him to repeat the 23 TD's from a year ago, but cut his interceptions by at least 6-7.

    Greg Jennings - Another guy that I am expecting not to have to pay a ton for. He was keeping right up with Donald Driver stats wise last year until he went down with that ankle injury. He is back healthy in camp and I see no reason why he doesn't perform like a WR2 with upside this year.

    Reggie Bush - In a PPR league, you have to love him. I believe he hangs around that 80+ reception total again, but gains 30-40 carries in the offense because Sean Payton knows he has to keep getting the ball in this guys hands. Sounds as though his between the tackles running has improved. If those extra touches become another 200 yards and 3-4 TD's, we could be looking at 1700+ all purpose yards and a dozen TD's. Top 5 numbers at around #10 price.

Will you be invoking any handcuffs in this auction? If so which ones are you targeting and how many dollars will you allocate to try and get this handcuff?
The only way I invoke a handcuff is if by some mistake I end up with Clinton Portis. If that happens, I will be getting Ladell Betts. I know thought that Betts would probably be the most expensive handcuff, as there are people, including me, that think Betts may perform at numbers closer to Portis than many think. He could be a steal without having Portis. The only other handcuff I would suggest is for the Steven Jackson owner. Get Mr. Leonard as a cheap insurance policy for S Jax.

There are 10 official starters that count towards your roster each week. How much money will you budget for your top QB, top 2 RBs, top 3 WRs, top TE, top flex, top defense and top PK? (186 is max). Tell us why you think this ratio is ideal for this league style.
Again, my strategy is to go high quality at RB, since once you get past RB35, things get a bid questionable as to what you can expect to get at all from your players point wise each week. I feel that having a top notch QB or WR is not necessary as you can have several WR in the 40-50 range that can produce a week or two here and there, so here's my breakdown for top guy at each spot, keeping in mind that I look at this differently because it's best ball:

  • QB - $8
  • RB -$55
  • RB - $35
  • WR - $20
  • WR - $10
  • WR - $7
  • Flex - $10
  • TE - $6
  • K - $1
  • D/T - $1

So, about $153, leaving me with $47 to find the depth I want at QB and WR. Yes, I want some studs to depend on, but with best ball, I can afford to take on some depth at inconsistent positions and still be successful.

What will you do differently in this auction because the league is played as a Bestball format?
I think having some extra quality depth is important. I realize that you can't win a group of slightly above average guys to win, but spending on 4-5 studs and nothing else sets you up with one or two injuries from being done. I will have a few studs, but I'll also have insurance with the depth. With no FA pickups, you can't afford not to have a backup plan in place.

What is your nomination strategy in early rounds of the auction? middle rounds of the auction? and towards the end?
Normally, I would nominate some stud players early, and hope guys would overspend in the excitement, leaving me with bargains later but with 14 teams and 24 roster spots, but in this auction I think it would be dangerous to underspend early and save all of your money for later in the auction when you are looking at players in the 150 range to spend on. Do I really need that extra $5 to spend on Michael Bush rather than Reggie? So I'm going to throw out average players and see if I can get them for a bargain or make someone else overpay.

I have noticed that many auctions seem to be overpriced in the middle rounds, as guys start to see shortcomings of their teams and overspend on guys trying to make up for it, but doing nothing nore than digging themselves in deeper. I determine what guys to nominate in the middle rounds based on other teams needs, especially the ones with money, trying to get them to spend down.

In the last part of the auction, it is sneak your sleepers through time. I try to keep my guys off the board as long as I can, so this is when my kickers and defenses start getting nominated, so in case I get stuck, at least I need them.

Is your plan to spend cap aggressively and fill many spots at the minimum later, wait for great values and try to control the middle/ends of drafts, etc? If you had to guess, how many players do you think you will have rostered after the first 50 nominations? after the first 100 nominations?
If guys are willing to "make it rain" early in the auction like PacMan in a strip club, I'll just sit back and wait, but if guys are tentative, I'll attack like a pitbull (bad reference). After the first 50, I would say I would have 3-4 guys (probably 2-3 RB's and a WR because you have to spend some early in this big of a league or be left with garbage). If I can get some of my average guys through for less as others spend on the big names, this number could get as high as 6.

After the first 100, I may have my first QB, I better have my top 4 RB's, and at least 2 WR. Again, if I can get my TE bargain or an extra QB, great, I see myself with 7-9.

Name the three most important things to winning this league? How will you ensure that you stay to this gameplan if the auction doesn't go as predicted?

  1. Flexibility. I have a plan outlined above, and I even have dollar amounts set for every position on my team, but if bargains come in odd places, I'm not going to let them go by.
  2. Patience to a point. I know I am going to have to overspend for my RB1 and maybe even RB2 with 14 teams, but I have to be willing to wait back and see what the moneys spent are going to be on WR and QB so I dont set the price, but take advantage of it.
  3. Depth - Again I will say it. In a 14 team league with no pickups, you have to be willing to get your 2-3 studs and then try to beat value on most of your other players. Best ball allows you the opportunity with a few homerun hitters to go with your single and doubles hitters, to score enough not to get buried on bad weeks, but put up high enough scores to compete for the top as well.

Jeff Haseley

You have $200 cap to spread against 24 players. How many of each position you are looking to have and how much budget is allocated to the positions. ie 3 QBs - $28 budget, 6 RBs - $98 budget, etc.

  • Quarterbacks (3) I would like to spend about $25-30 on QBs. Preferably closer to $25. This is about 12-13%.
  • Running Backs (5-6) This is where I want to spend most of my cap. $95-105, which is right around 50%.
  • Wide Receivers (6-7) I would like to spend no more than $70 on all of my WRs, which is 30-35%.
  • Tight Ends (2) I really don't want to spend over $7 on my TE's. Maybe a $5 TE and a $2 TE. This is about 3%.
  • Defense (2) No more than $4 or $2 per pick. About 2%.
  • Kicker (2) $1 per kicker is all I need or want. 1%.

Name three players you expect to land. These are likely people you think will smash their ADP and therefore would be willing to pay more than the average cost to get the player. Why are you targeting these players? What do you see in their games/opportunities that makes them the key to winning this league?

  • Calvin Johnson - targeting him in every draft. I think he is going to have a big rookie year. I don't want to pay too much for him and if the price goes too high, I'd rather get a proven vet for less money.
  • Ben Roethlisberger, Vince Young or Tony Romo combo - I want to go light on spending for my QBs. If I can Marc Bulger fairly cheap, I'll grab him quickly, but my goal is to have a decent combo at QB. Romo, Young and Roethlisberger fit that role perfectly. I think all three could be pro-bowlers this year.
  • Wes Welker - On the cheap side for a WR that could easily have 60+ recs and 6-7 TDs. I like his role in the Patriots offense this year and I think he can be had relatively cheap. I'm going to need 6-7 WR's and I don't want to spend more than I have to. Another WR I'm targeting is Arnaz Battle. Good production at low cost.

Will you be invoking any handcuffs in this auction? If so which ones are you targeting and how many dollars will you allocate to try and get this handcuff?
Yes, I am going to target handcuffs, but only for top shelf RBs, which will likely be one, maybe two RBs.

There are 10 official starters that count towards your roster each week. How much money will you budget for your top QB, top 2 RBs, top 3 WRs, top TE, top flex, top defense and top PK? (186 is max). Tell us why you think this ratio is ideal for this league style.
Ten starters will probably be around $150-160, which will be close to 80%. I want to use my money for players that I know will put up points every week. I want to go heavy on RB1, RB2, WR1, WR2. My WR3 can be mediocre and my approach for QBs will be to get two solid QBs, not elite, but solid with a chance to have a good season. My TE will be somewhat average with a riskier pick for TE2. I will try to sneak in a good defense for $2 and I will use the remainder of $2 to get my Def2 and my kicker.

  • QB1 $17-19
  • RB1 $40-45, RB2 $35-38
  • WR1 $19-22, WR2 $17-20, WR3 $12-15
  • TE1 $4-5
  • K $1
  • Def $2
  • Total: Minimum $147, Maximum $167

What will you do differently in this auction because the league is played as a Bestball format?
Because I will have to put up points every week to keep pace with the rest of the league, I will try to get players that will play every week and put up points. I will definitely keep an eye on bye weeks because of this.

What is your nomination strategy in early rounds of the auction? middle rounds of the auction? and towards the end?
Not really sure here. I guess it depends on which players are called up. I would like to conserve some money and not spend too quickly, but if the right player is brought up, I won't hesitate to bid. I have done very well with auctions in the past when I waited on spending, so I might just try that approach again, but it's not my intent. It all depends on the way the draft is moving and developing.

Is your plan to spend cap aggressively and fill many spots at the minimum later, wait for great values and try to control the middle/ends of drafts, etc? If you had to guess, how many players do you think you will have rostered after the first 50 nominations? after the first 100 nominations?
Like I said above, I am going to try and conserve my cap, but it really depends on who is brought up. With 14 teams, the first 50 nominations I'll probably have 2 picks. Don't be surprised if I have only 3-4 picks after the first 100.

Name the three most important things to winning this league? How will you ensure that you stay to this gameplan if the auction doesn't go as predicted?
I think the way to win this league is to manage your cap dollars to stay within your boundaries, control the spending of the auction, go after the players you want, get a strong corps of RB1, RB2, WR1, WR2 and make some excellent purchases of players that you think are going to outperform their ADP. Auction drafts can be a lot of fun, but you have to respect your cap boundaries. Keep track of everyone else's picks and their spending, choose to make your moves at players at the right times. Don't forget to watch your bye weeks and root hard that luck is on your side when the season begins.


Aaron Rudnicki

You have $200 cap to spread against 24 players. How many of each position you are looking to have and how much budget is allocated to the positions. ie 3 QBs - $28 budget, 6 RBs - $98 budget, etc.

  • QBs (3): $15
  • RBs (6): $100
  • WRs (8): $72
  • TEs (2): $8
  • PKs (2): $2
  • DEF (2): $2
  • 1FLEX spot (QB/RB/WR/TE/DEF) depending on need: $1

Name three players you expect to land. These are likely people you think will smash their ADP and therefore would be willing to pay more than the average cost to get the player. Why are you targeting these players? What do you see in their games/opportunities that makes them the key to winning this league?
I really don't go into any draft targeting specific players. I just look for value so I can't really imagine any players that I would pay more than average cost to get because that would be the opposite of value. In an auction draft, it is particularly important to maintain flexibility for the values that inevitably present themselves near the end once many teams have overspent. That being said, there do seem to be several players that consistently wind up on my teams this year so I must be a little higher on them than most. Some of those guys might include QB Jason Campbell, RB Fred Taylor, and WR Bernard Berrian. I think Campbell, if he stays healthy, can be a borderline QB1 this year but his price is much closer to that of a QB3. Everybody loves Maurice Jones-Drew in Jacksonville, but Taylor is still the starter, is coming off a great year that saw him average over 5 yards per carry, and seems to be consistently undervalued by most fantasy owners. Berrian just has that feel of a player who is flying under the radar but will establish himself as the team's clear #1 WR and perhaps earn a huge contract next offseason when he becomes a free agent.

Will you be invoking any handcuffs in this auction? If so which ones are you targeting and how many dollars will you allocate to try and get this handcuff?
This is also something that I have to wait and see how the draft plays out, but there are some players that I would prefer to handcuff and some that I would not. If I wind up with a player like Cedric Benson, then I would want to grab his backup Adrian Peterson because I'm concerned about Benson's durability. I would also want to grab Gus Frerotte if I landed Marc Bulger because I think both QBs will be productive in that offense. With 24 roster spots, there is certainly enough room to grab important backups that can provide insurance against one of your expensive starters getting injured. Since we have a limited amount of funds, however, it's probably a good idea to target the situations that will allow you to grab a starter and backup for the least amount of cash. Situations like Marion Barber/Julius Jones or Reggie Bush/Deuce McAlister are likely going to be too expensive as both players have value as individuals.

There are 10 official starters that count towards your roster each week. How much money will you budget for your top QB, top 2 RBs, top 3 WRs, top TE, top flex, top defense and top PK? (186 is max). Tell us why you think this ratio is ideal for this league style.
For a position like QB, I probably won't wind up with any of the expensive ones as starters and will instead try to play a QBBC with 2 or 3 similarly priced players. At RB, you don't really have that luxury so I'll likely need to spend at least $70 or $80 to grab 2 or 3 good starters that I feel I can rely on. In a league that awards points per reception, WR value is increased so I will likely be willing to spend $50 to $60 to grab 3 or 4 quality starters there as well. I'll likely take a committee approach at TE, PK, and DEF as well so the cost of my "starters" should be less than most teams. I'd say my projected cost of my starting lineup would be roughly $150 or 75% of the cap, and I think that will probably be a reasonable estimate for most teams who don't spend like crazy early on. I think there is enough depth at QB, TE, PK, and DEF to make the committee approach effective, so I'll be focusing most of my spending on grabbing the best values at RB and WR. Depending on whether I get players I like for relatively low cost, then I may be more willing to spend the extra money at the other positions.

What will you do differently in this auction because the league is played as a Bestball format?
I treat it somewhat similarly to a survivor league in that I will try my best to spread out my bye weeks at each position. But, rather than trying to avoid scoring the least in a given week, the point here is to try and score the most so I think it's important to focus on players with a lot of upside who could really give you an edge over everyone else. As a result, I'll likely wind up drafting more boom or bust type players in this draft than I would in other leagues. I don't like wasting draft picks or cash on players that do nothing so I'm sure I'll still build my team with plenty of players that I think are safe bets to produce, but I think you need to take calculated risks in a league like this to win.

What is your nomination strategy in early rounds of the auction? middle rounds of the auction? and towards the end?
Early on when every team has lots of cash to spend, the players will generally wind up going for more money than they should. As a result, I plan to hold off on nominating players that I want early on and save them for the end when the other owners are more strapped for cash. Early on, I'll nominate players that I don't particularly want but may create a bidding war to try and get someone to overspend. In the middle once bids start to slow down a bit, I'll start bidding on players I want that I think I can get for value. In the end, you just try to fill out your roster and it's important to try and bid on players you want so you can hopefully land them for $1.

Is your plan to spend cap aggressively and fill many spots at the minimum later, wait for great values and try to control the middle/ends of drafts, etc? If you had to guess, how many players do you think you will have rostered after the first 50 nominations? after the first 100 nominations?
My plan is certainly to be patient, look for values early, and then clean up all the players that slip to the end when their cost is generally much lower than the players that go early. In a league with 24 roster spots and bestball format, depth is more important to me than having a handful of stud players and a bunch of scrubs to back them up. After first 50 nominations, I'll probably only have 2 or 3 on my team and those will likely be RBs/WRs that I want to build around. After 100 nominations, I'm sure my team will start to take form with maybe 8 or 9 players on board.

Name the three most important things to winning this league? How will you ensure that you stay to this gameplan if the auction doesn't go as predicted?

  1. Finding values
  2. Building depth
  3. Taking calculated risks that pay off

Most important factor is to not overspend early because then you limit your flexibility to take advantage of values that may present themselves and you wind up spending too much money on too few players. If a lot of owners appear to be using a similar plan, however, then I won't hesitate to mix things up and try to grab some good values early on.


CalBears

You have $200 cap to spread against 24 players. How many of each position you are looking to have and how much budget is allocated to the positions. ie 3 QBs - $28 budget, 6 RBs - $98 budget, etc.
The most important thing about the auction format is to remain flexible. I develop a roster plan, but I only use it as a guide during the auction; if I budget 15% of my cap for a QB, and wind up getting a QB at good value for 20% of my cap, I just go back to my roster plan and see how I can adjust it to compensate.

My roster plan going in is:

  • 4 QB, $16/$6/$4/$1 (total $27)
  • 6 RB, $50/$20/$10/$1/$1/$1 (total $83)
  • 5 WR, $40/$20/$5/$3/$1 (total $69)
  • 2 TE, $10/$1 (total $11)
  • 3 Flex, $4/$1/$1 (total $6)
  • 2K, 2D, all at $1 each (total $4)

What I expect is that this crowd will be overloading on RBs, so the value may be at WR. I don't really like 2RB+Flex league setup; I think 1RB/3WR/1Flex makes for a more balanced auction. But I won't chase diminishing returns at RB; we'll see what comes to me.

Name three players you expect to land. These are likely people you think will smash their ADP and therefore would be willing to pay more than the average cost to get the player. Why are you targeting these players? What do you see in their games/opportunities that makes them the key to winning this league?
I don't believe in "upside." I draft players who will be solid producers, and I think history shows that solid producers are just as likely to have major upside as flashy young guys. A typical example would be Donald Driver last year, who many would have said had "no upside" from where he was being drafted (WR15-20). Driver finished in the top 5, tied with Torry Holt, who was much flashier and more expensive. Curtis Martin in 2004 is another example.

Much more so than draft leagues, auction leagues are all about maximizing value in your starting lineup, and if you can get solid production from a boring player while others chase the Vernon Davises of the world, you'll be able to control the auction.

I don't think there are three players I can expect to land, but I think that the top TEs are generally undervalued in terms of dollars per VBD point, so I'll probably wind up with one of Gates, Gonzalez, Shockey or Heap. I'm hoping for Gonzo, because Tony's the man. I might wind up with Marshawn Lynch, because I have him projected somewhat ahead of the consensus (though not significantly so--1300 total yards and 9 TDs). I'm higher on Edge than most. And I have a feeling I'm going to wind up with Trent Green/Cleo Lemon; I'm much higher on the Miami passing game than most.

Will you be invoking any handcuffs in this auction? If so which ones are you targeting and how many dollars will you allocate to try and get this handcuff?
I think in best ball format, it can be good to get cheap low-end handcuffs, like Trent Green/Cleo Lemon. Miami has the receiving weapons to put up some passing numbers this year, but the uncertainty at the QB position will depress the value of both QBs before the season. With 24-man rosters, the extra roster spot isn't much of a loss; I expect I'll be able to land Green/Lemon for as little as $2 combined, which will keep my QB budget down.

I'm not a big fan of high-end handcuffs in this format; Larry Johnson and Michael Bennett, for example. If LJ goes down, Bennett will not produce enough to save the LJ owner; I'd rather cross over with LJ and Michael Turner to give myself a shot at producing huge numbers if LT goes down. Playing defensively doesn't win competitive 14-team leagues. (N.B.: I expect Turner will wind up costing more than I'm willing to pay. But there are other reasonable options.)

There are 10 official starters that count towards your roster each week. How much money will you budget for your top QB, top 2 RBs, top 3 WRs, top TE, top flex, top defense and top PK? (186 is max). Tell us why you think this ratio is ideal for this league style.
I'm currently looking at $167 for starters. In auction leagues, I like to have anchor players at RB1 and WR1, and the only way you get them is to fork over the moolah. You an save a little on QB because the production curve is so flat and you can get cheap QBBC options which should be ideal for best ball (because you don't have to choose the productive one each week).

What will you do differently in this auction because the league is played as a Bestball format?
As noted above, cheap QB handcuffs should work pretty well. Paired WRs on the same team could also be effective; you don't have to figure out which one will be productive for any given week. It will be tough to get the top tandems, but Branch/Hackett, Coles/Cotchery, Driver/Jennings could be feasible.

What is your nomination strategy in early rounds of the auction? middle rounds of the auction? and towards the end?
I think the closest thing I have to a strategy is to look for opportunities to nominate similar players to the player just auctioned. If the price was higher than I expected, nominate another similar player who I don't want, to try to get people to overpay again. If the price was lower than I expected, nominate a similar player who I do want, to try to steal him cheaply.

Towards the end of the auction, nominations can be used to knock people out of the auction if they're down to one or two slots open; nominate Michael Turner to get the LT owner to bid. If possible, keep an eye on who has the most free cash, and nominate players that person might want (like a handcuff for his stud RB), to reduce his stash.

Is your plan to spend cap aggressively and fill many spots at the minimum later, wait for great values and try to control the middle/ends of drafts, etc? If you had to guess, how many players do you think you will have rostered after the first 50 nominations? after the first 100 nominations?
It's hard to say; the most important thing in an auction is to be flexible and take value where it's presented. With my main league, the best value tends to be in the middle of the auction, so I tend to sit on the sidelines for a while at the beginning, only jumping in to enforce value. I haven't done an auction with anyone in this group, so I don't know if the same dynamic will apply. If I had to guess, I'd expect to have 2-3 players rostered in the first 50, and 6-7 in the first 100.

Name the three most important things to winning this league? How will you ensure that you stay to this gameplan if the auction doesn't go as predicted?

  1. Exploit market inefficiencies. I've been working with Bruce Henderson a lot on setting auction values in DD, and there are some new options he's added to the app which I'll be tweaking to make things look the way I want them to. Because of this, I expect my values will look different than most people's; I think that will give me an edge.
  2. Be flexible. You can start 4 WRs in this league; if everyone's driving up the price of RBs, let them, and look for good value at other positions. If no one wants to let a decent QB go for less than $10, wait them out and go for cheap QBBC or handcuffs. Don't try to fight the flow of the auction.
  3. Don't panic. In a 14-team shark league, the bidding will be competitive and the tactics will be aggressive. Keep your cool and keep your eyes on the numbers. Don't try to enforce value on players you're not interested in; you're likely to get stuck with them. Keep to your overall strategy and remember that there are a lot of ways to build a successful team in auction format.

Jeff Pasquino

You have $200 cap to spread against 24 players. How many of each position you are looking to have and how much budget is allocated to the positions. ie 3 QBs - $28 budget, 6 RBs - $98 budget, etc.
Basic budget for me is nearly "all in" on RBs and WRs. However, with PPR and possibly 4 WRs starting, I'm looking at close to the same amount on WRs as RBs. I'm looking at $12 on 3 QBs, $91 on 6 RBs, $82 on 7 WRs, $8 on 3 TEs, $2 on 2Ks and $5 on 3 Defenses. I also expect around 80% to be spent on my starters (including either RB3 or WR4).

Name three players you expect to land. These are likely people you think will smash their ADP and therefore would be willing to pay more than the average cost to get the player. Why are you targeting these players? What do you see in their games/opportunities that makes them the key to winning this league?
I expect to get an older WR like Joey Galloway, who has had 22 TDs in the last 3 years, same as Plaxico Burress. I also want a player like Deuce McAllister at RB, because he was the 16th-best RB in WCOFF scoring last season and he's valued well under that this year. I'm also hoping for a nice 2-QB combo of veterans that aren't targeted much in redraft leagues because they are "Who Do I Start?" headaches but they can blow up on any given week - like Rex Grossman.

Will you be invoking any handcuffs in this auction? If so which ones are you targeting and how many dollars will you allocate to try and get this handcuff?
I seriously doubt I will handcuff any RBs, which is the only place I'd handcuff a player. I won't be spending much on bigger (Top 10) RBs, and those are the only ones that warrant a handcuff. I may go for a cheap pairing like the RBs in Green Bay, but that's about it. It also costs two roster spots so that's another price I am unlikely to pay.

There are 10 official starters that count towards your roster each week. How much money will you budget for your top QB, top 2 RBs, top 3 WRs, top TE, top flex, top defense and top PK? (186 is max). Tell us why you think this ratio is ideal for this league style.
80% of my cap, or about $160. I see about $35 for RB1, $30 for RB2 and $15 for RB3 for a total of $80 for 3 RBs (this includes the "flex"). I will spend a good deal on WR as well, but spreading the wealth - WR1 for $25, WR2 for $20, WR3 for $18 - so that is $143 for a starting group of RB and WR. The balance will be at QB (starter around $8), K ($1), TE ($5 starter) and D ($3 starter). That's $17 on top of the $143 for a $160 total.

Here's a complete guesstimate / budget for me:

  • QB($12/3) - $8, $3, $1
  • RB($91/6) - $35, $30, $15, $8, $2, $1
  • WR($83/7) - $25, $20, $18, $8, $7, $3, $2
  • TE($7/3) - $5, $1, $1
  • PK($2/2) - $1, $1
  • DEF($5/3) - $3, $1, $1

What will you do differently in this auction because the league is played as a Bestball format?
I will be targeting "big play" players over the consistent producers. I will have 7 WRs, for example, and I want some of them to have the potential for a long TD any given week. That means I want TD catchers and also speedsters like Bernard Berrian and Kevin Curtis. PPR does smooth some of this out, but I want the chance for my WR5, WR6 and WR7 to outpoint my Top 4, otherwise it is a wasted pick (barring injuries).

What is your nomination strategy in early rounds of the auction? In the middle rounds of the auction? And towards the end?
In the early rounds I likely will throw out some bigger names and possibly some handcuffs for them as well. I'll play it some by ear, but I want the dollars flowing early. After I feel it slowing down a little, I will likely try and sneak a K or D through for $1. Then I'll start tossing out WRs and QBs later as I think that is where the value lies in this auction. Towards the end I'll try and buy aggressively as I don't want to have to wait too long to nominate players and have some teams steal them away for $3 or more.

Is your plan to spend cap aggressively and fill many spots at the minimum later, wait for great values and try to control the middle/ends of drafts, etc? If you had to guess, how many players do you think you will have rostered after the first 50 nominations? After the first 100 nominations?
This is an interesting question. I will roll as the auction unfolds, but I expect to fill up my team as we go along. I'll be behind pace early but about even after the mid-way point. I don't want to try and wait too long as the values are closer to the middle third of the player pool.

I expect the Top 40 players thrown out in the first 50 picks (I expect a few sneak attempts or handcuffs) and I will need a Top 15 RB or two to compete. I expect to let the Top 5 QBs go and the Top 7-8 RBs as well, but after about 50 picks, with 14 teams I would say I would have 3 players, possibly 4. After 50 more (100 total) I'll fill in deeper and be up to about 8-9 players on my team as values emerge.

Name the three most important things to winning this league? How will you ensure that you stay to this gameplan if the auction doesn't go as predicted?
Three important things - strong WR corps, a good QB and at least one feature RB. The only issues I see with this plan are that the QBs and RBs could get scarce with 14 teams. If need be I'll overspend for a RB like Ronnie Brown or Rudi Johnson and then make up the difference later in the Auction. As long as I stay close to on budget or can adjust with the marketplace I should be fine. I should still be able to get two starting QBs but I want three, so I need to act early on that. WRs are deep so I should be okay with getting 7 quality WRs.


Clayton Gray

You have $200 cap to spread against 24 players. How many of each position you are looking to have and how much budget is allocated to the positions. ie 3 QBs - $28 budget, 6 RBs - $98 budget, etc.

  • First, I almost certainly will take three TEs, two PKs, and two defenses. I plan to get two pretty good PKs and two pretty good defenses, so I can't justify more roster spots there. At TE, I will get one good one and a couple of backups to offset injury possibilities. I figure to spend around $20 on TEs with two of them being $1 players. At PK and defense, I'll spend between $6 and $10 total.
  • At QB, I will take either two or three. One of them will be either Peyton Manning, Carson Palmer, Tom Brady, Donovan McNabb, Drew Brees, or Marc Bulger. If Manning climbs aboard, I'll only grab one backup. I'll take two with any of the other QBs. I don't mind spending up to $40 here.
  • That leaves me 14 to 15 spots to fill and around $125 to spend at RB and WR. I expect to spend $100 to $110 of that on three or four players. Hopefully, I'll be able to grab a couple of backs in the $30 to $35 range and one elite WR. However, if my fellow auctioneers push up the RB prices, I have no problem reversing those numbers. If I only take one great back, I'll likely spend the rest of my money on a few mediocre RBs in the LenDale White mold.

Name three players you expect to land. These are likely people you think will smash their ADP and therefore would be willing to pay more than the average cost to get the player. Why are you targeting these players? What do you see in their games/opportunities that makes them the key to winning this league?

  • I'll be shocked if I don't get Travis Henry. I'll spend up to $45 to do so, but I think he'll go in the high 30s after his knee scare.
  • I will likely get Rex Grossman. I'm higher on him than anyone in a regular league, but he's perfect for a best ball format since you don't have to guess whether he'll score 20 points or negative three.
  • I fully expect one of my backup TEs will be Visanthe Shiancoe. I don't think anyone else has him on their radar, so I should get him for $1.

Will you be invoking any handcuffs in this auction? If so which ones are you targeting and how many dollars will you allocate to try and get this handcuff?
No. I'm not a believer in handcuffs at all. There's a chance I'll take a couple of WRs from the same team, but it won't be due to a handcuffing principle. Rather, it will be that both WRs provide value at that price.

There are 10 official starters that count towards your roster each week. How much money will you budget for your top QB, top 2 RBs, top 3 WRs, top TE, top flex, top defense and top PK? (186 is max). Tell us why you think this ratio is ideal for this league style.
I don't know if it's ideal, but I plan to spend a ton on my starting line-up. I wouldn't be surprised if 90% of my budget is in my starting ten. The reason for this strategy is that I expect the rest of the league to shy away from busting their bank early, which will hopefully allow me to stockpile some fantastic starters. Of course I'll be dead if injuries hit my roster, but that's a chance I'm willing to take.

What will you do differently in this auction because the league is played as a Bestball format?
My entire strategy at RB and WR is based on this format. While I'll have three or four top starters, I will also have several crappy players at these positions (especially at WR). I think it's OK to do this as I'm likely to get one of them putting up decent numbers each week. Of course it would be next to impossible to predict which one of them would go off each week, but this format takes that pitfall out of the equation.

Also, playing best ball lets me draft Grossman without concern.

What is your nomination strategy in early rounds of the auction? middle rounds of the auction? and towards the end?
In the early stages, I'll throw out big names and hope the rest of the league does to. Since I plan to burn up my cap early, I'll be nominating TEs, PKs, and defenses in the middle stages. Late, I'll just throw up whatever RBs and WRs are left as I round out my roster.

Is your plan to spend cap aggressively and fill many spots at the minimum later, wait for great values and try to control the middle/ends of drafts, etc? If you had to guess, how many players do you think you will have rostered after the first 50 nominations? after the first 100 nominations?
I plan to get a handful of premier starters early with the hopes that others will look to preserve their money. Then I'll slow down a good deal as I grab some TEs, PKs, and defenses. Finally, I'll close the auction perusing the bargain bin. I figure to have five to eight of the first 50 players but maybe only eight to ten of the first 100. I fully expect to have seven to ten $1 players.

Name the three most important things to winning this league? How will you ensure that you stay to this gameplan if the auction doesn't go as predicted?
To win this league, you need to have the capability to have a few weeks where you go 10-3 or better while avoiding weeks of 3-10 or worse. To accomplish this, I plan to get a strong starting lineup. Of course I'll be killed by an injury or two (or a bust or two), but I don't mind finishing last while trying to finish first. In other words, I'm going for broke rather than playing it safe. Finishing in the middle of the pack probably isn't going to happen.

The best way to accomplish this is to do the opposite of what the rest of your league is doing. I expect everyone to be sitting back and holding their cash, so I'll be spending mine fairly early. However, if they zig on me here, I'll zag and sit back. One thing is almost a certainty - I'll spend more at QB, TE, PK, and defense. I fully expect to be ahead of the game at those positions.


Chris Smith

You have $200 cap to spread against 24 players. How many of each position you are looking to have and how much budget is allocated to the positions. ie 3 QBs - $28 budget, 6 RBs - $98 budget, etc.
I have a salary range that I shoot for in auction leagues but it is certainly dependent on which players I take. For example, I will tend to budget $10-12 for the tight end position but if I can get Antonio Gates on my team in a PPR league then I will do it and then tweak the other positions going forward. That said, I expect o spend…

  • QB: $15 unless I can land a Manning, Palmer, Brady for good value. Then it may be tweaked upwards as high as $25.
  • RB: $100
  • WR: $65
  • TE: $10 unless I can land Gates for $22
  • K: $3
  • DEF: $7

Name three players you expect to land. These are likely people you think will smash their ADP and therefore would be willing to pay more than the average cost to get the player. Why are you targeting these players? What do you see in their games/opportunities that makes them the key to winning this league?
In auction drafts, I tend to not try and lock onto players and instead wait for value to be had. There are players I am higher on than others though and I'll point them out here.

  • WR Roy Williams: I believe in the Lions offense this season, Williams has the potential to finish as the top fantasy receiver. I am going to roll the dice and try to get him on the squad and may be willing to pay up to $30 to get him, depending on what happens prior to his nomination.
  • RB Ahman Green: I will be looking to land Green for a bargain price. In a Kubiak offense, Green could put up very nice numbers in 2007. Hopefully will land him for around $30
  • WR Jerricho Cotchery: I believe last season was not a fluke and with a lack of competition for touches in New York I expect at least similar numbers from him in 2007. I won't overpay to land him but there is a good chance he'll wind up on my roster just because I have him ranked so high (my 16th WR)
  • Honorable mention: WR David Boston: Starting to believe he is the real deal. I will try to lock him up late in the draft as a sleeper with upside.

Will you be invoking any handcuffs in this auction? If so which ones are you targeting and how many dollars will you allocate to try and get this handcuff?
I would love to get these combos:

  • Cowboys duo of Barber and Jones and may pay up to $40 combined to get them on my roster.
  • Reggie Bush and Deuce McAllister for $80 combined.

There are 10 official starters that count towards your roster each week. How much money will you budget for your top QB, top 2 RBs, top 3 WRs, top TE, top flex, top defense and top PK? (186 is max). Tell us why you think this ratio is ideal for this league style.
Really it depends on value throughout the draft. I believe in BEST BALL it is important to have a foundation of talented players that can carry you through the weeks and then a decent depth option or two at each position. I believe roughly 80% of my budget will be spent on the starting positions. Obviously the budget below will change if I end up spending money on Tomlinson, Jackson, Gates or Reggie Bush. Then WR and FLEX would likely drop by 30% or so.

An estimate at this time would be:

  • QB $10
  • RB $90
  • WR $40
  • FLEX $10
  • TE $6
  • K $2
  • DEF $4

Total on starters - $162.00

What will you do differently in this auction because the league is played as a Bestball format?
Actually I don't do too much differently. The biggest change is that I'll likely try and finish with 7-8 receivers on the team, hopefully that three will go off at any given time. My goal is to have Roy Williams as my #1 and then 6-7 other receivers at cheap prices that are capable of big weeks.

What is your nomination strategy in early rounds of the auction? middle rounds of the auction? and towards the end?
Most often, I will nominate popular players I do not want on my team. An example of it this season is Larry Johnson. However once every 4 bids or so, I'll try to sneak in a player that I do want to shake things up but only if I have spending strength compared to at least half the other owners.

In the middle of the draft, I'll try to nominate pieces of the puzzle for more than $1. For example, I will throw out a player like Chris Chambers for $6.00 hoping to land him without a bidding war. At the end of the draft, as long as my cash is in good shape, I'll try to call out players I want for more money than other owners can/will spend.

Is your plan to spend cap aggressively and fill many spots at the minimum later, wait for great values and try to control the middle/ends of drafts, etc? If you had to guess, how many players do you think you will have rostered after the first 50 nominations? after the first 100 nominations?
It all depends on value and how high the prices become. I could see having 80% of my budget spent on my first four players drafted

I.E. - Peyton Manning, Steven Jackson, Reggie Bush, Roy Williams

And I could also see having most of my money available for a strong mid-draft push. It really depends on how loose or tight the other owner's budgets are.

Name the three most important things to winning this league? How will you ensure that you stay to this gameplan if the auction doesn't go as predicted?
Auctions will rarely go exactly as you think they will. That is the joy of auction drafting. Here is my strategy:

  1. I plan on staying loose throughout the draft, trying to pick up players for good value and not force it too much. One thing I do often find in auctions though is some of the early running backs nominated go for better values than ones later on as the talent well dries up and especially so at the RB position and it is important to get a top-five back IMO.
  2. I will try to land at least one of my top six running backs in the top half of the draft. Perhaps a player like Shaun Alexander will fit the bill as folks will shy away from him due to his lack of receiving numbers. He will provide consistent rushing numbers though which is nice in a best ball league. Along with this if I can get the backup for ultra cheap I will do so.
  3. Want to lock up my Defensive duo… Using Chase Stuart's Defensive Team by Committee article, I want to lock up the duo of Minnesota and Jacksonville. I am not as confident in his first recommendation of Minnesota/Tennessee but if I fail to land Jacksonville, I will go after Tennessee instead.

Chase Stuart

You have $200 cap to spread against 24 players. How many of each position you are looking to have and how much budget is allocated to the positions. ie 3 QBs - $28 budget, 6 RBs - $98 budget, etc.
I plan on going with 3 QBs, 7 RBs, 8 WRs, 2 TEs, 2 PKs and 2 DTs. I don't want to break down how much I'm going to allocate to each position, because I think it's important to remain flexible during the draft. Auction drafts involve TONS of over and undervalued players, so it's impossible to know where you will spend your money. The key, of course, is to have good projections of both your fantasy players and how much money you will want to spend on them. If you see that stud RBs are going for cheap, grab them. But positions from all points count equally, so there's no reason to worry about spending more than you allotted if Antonio Gates or Peyton Manning are going for cheap.

I don't plan on spending much at QB, TE, PK or DT. I've got my QBBC and DTBC spreadsheets handy, so I think I can maximize value there by keeping my expenses low. PK doesn't matter, and I'm not one to spend much on TEs, especially in best ball.

Name three players you expect to land. These are likely people you think will smash their ADP and therefore would be willing to pay more than the average cost to get the player. Why are you targeting these players? What do you see in their games/opportunities that makes them the key to winning this league?

  • Steve Smith is the big guy here. He averaged 14.99 FP/G in the 11 games that he and Jake Delhomme played in last year, and averaged 14.8 FP/G in 2005. In PPR scoring, he averaged 21.63 FP/G in those 11 games, while in 2005 he averaged 21.2 FP/G. Smith was every bit as effective last year as in '05 when he was unstoppable, but people don't seem to realize it. I have Smith as far and away my WR1, and would be willing to pay $5 more for him than any other WR.
  • I like Tony Romo a lot, but I'm not sure how much he'll go for. He was the 6th best QB last year after adjusting for games played and strength of schedule, and moves into the top five with Vick gone. I see no reason for a downgrade, while many have him ranked outside their top ten. On the other hand, I like my QBBC system, and will probably pluck two (or three) of the players from there. I don't like Alex Smith at all, but it's hard to ignore his combined schedule with Jeff Garcia.
  • I like the Vikings D for the same reason - Minnesota is the star of my DTBC. Another player I think might go for cheaper than he should is Larry Johnson. I think he's a true stud and the holdout plus the workload from last year have people down on him. I think both of those reasons are flimsy, and expect Johnson to finish in the top 3 in '07. I have him and Steven Jackson as 2a and 2b, whereas I've seen some put Johnson out of their top five.

Will you be invoking any handcuffs in this auction? If so which ones are you targeting and how many dollars will you allocate to try and get this handcuff?
Handcuffs are great for best ball leagues. Last year, I grabbed Cedric Benson/Thomas Jones, and Julius Jones/Marion Barber III, and that helped me a ton in our Footballguys.com survivor league. Jones-Drew and Taylor would make for a solid handcuff, but a cheaper - and perhaps more valuable one - is Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor. Peterson's big pre-season game against the Jets may make that one too expensive, though.

Handcuffing can also work at wide receiver, both at WR2/WR3 and WR1/WR2. I wouldn't mind taking Coles and Cotchery or Branch and Hackett. At WR2/WR3, Welker/Stallworth and Bruce/Bennett are intriguing.

There are 10 official starters that count towards your roster each week. How much money will you budget for your top QB, top 2 RBs, top 3 WRs, top TE, top flex, top defense and top PK? (186 is max). Tell us why you think this ratio is ideal for this league style.
I believe depth matters a great deal in best ball leagues. Because you don't have to pick a starter, having a guy that has 4 or 5 breakout games a year is very valuable. In regular leagues, Rex Grossman, Julius Jones and Donte' Stallworth aren't too valuable. In these leagues, they are. The question is a bit tricky because I plan to go QBBC and DTBC, and not really have starters there. I will spend a lot on my 2 RBs and 2 WRs, and then try and have strong depth to fill the rest of my team. But to answer the question, something like $140 for the ten official starters would leave me with lots of room for $6 players.

What will you do differently in this auction because the league is played as a Bestball format?
Handcuffing (RBs, and WRs on the same team) become much more desirable in these leagues. Additionally, RBs that catch passes or score TDs become valuable. Kevin Faulk, Ladell Betts, Michael Pittman, Brian Leonard, LenDale White and Tony Hunt could have some nice weeks. Grabbing both WRs fighting for the WR2 role is also a great move - Welker/Stallworth, Bruce/Bennett, Colbert/Jarrett, Steve Smith/Amani Toomer and Muhammad/Bradley are all players that are more valuable in best ball leagues.

What is your nomination strategy in early rounds of the auction? middle rounds of the auction? and towards the end?
I plan to nominate Michael Turner and the Minnesota D with my first two picks. I hope to get both of them at low prices when people have their eyes on the bigger prizes. Later in the draft, I'll nominate guys I'm interested in to fill out my roster, and hope to have enough money to outbid anyone that tries to steal them. I haven't put a ton of thought into a nomination strategy.

Is your plan to spend cap aggressively and fill many spots at the minimum later, wait for great values and try to control the middle/ends of drafts, etc? If you had to guess, how many players do you think you will have rostered after the first 50 nominations? after the first 100 nominations?
I plan to wait it out, unless that's what everyone does. My guess is I'll be lagging behind a bit, with maybe 3 players rostered after 50 and 5 after 100.

Name the three most important things to winning this league? How will you ensure that you stay to this gameplan if the auction doesn't go as predicted?
Not overbidding on any one guy is crucial. No player can make your auction, and don't let anyone else drive up the price too high. Conversely, driving up the price for other owners is important, too. The cap here is pretty tight -- $200 for 24 players - so if you can get an owner to shell out $2 more than he wanted, it's a win. Check their roster to see if they've got no TEs when they bid on a TE late, or if they're grabbing a handcuff, or a QB/WR hookup. That's a good sign that they really want the player.

The other key is to stick to your auction values/FP ratings and not let the excitement of the auction get to you. If you've done a good job preparing, you should always feel in control.


Capt Hook

You have $200 cap to spread against 24 players. How many of each position you are looking to have and how much budget is allocated to the positions. ie 3 QBs - $28 budget, 6 RBs - $98 budget, etc.
My current budget breakdown is:

  • 3 QB = $19 [may be less because unless someone in Top 10 drops I will be using QBBC and may add a cheap fourth quarterback in that case]
  • 6 RB = $88
  • 7 WR = $68
  • 3 TE = $12
  • Either 3 K for $7 and 2 DST for $6 (or 2 K for $6 and 3 DST for $7)

Name three players you expect to land. These are likely people you think will smash their ADP and therefore would be willing to pay more than the average cost to get the player. Why are you targeting these players? What do you see in their games/opportunities that makes them the key to winning this league?

  1. Maurice Jones-Drew - I don't think his total points fall off as much as people are projecting. Yes the TD rate will likely fall, but he will play two more games this year, AND it is still Fragile Fred who is his running mate.
  2. Jerricho Cotchery - I think he is undervalued. He and Coles should both have really good numbers if Pennington stays healthy
  3. Kellen Winslow - I think he is money in ppr leagues regardless of how many Cleveland quarterbacks throw to him this year.

Will you be invoking any handcuffs in this auction? If so which ones are you targeting and how many dollars will you allocate to try and get this handcuff?
Hard to say because I don't know which RB I will land on a budget. I am not averse however to buying both halves of a RBBC if I can get one cheap - the target would be Carolina.

There are 10 official starters that count towards your roster each week. How much money will you budget for your top QB, top 2 RBs, top 3 WRs, top TE, top flex, top defense and top PK? (186 is max). Tell us why you think this ratio is ideal for this league style.
153/200 because in this format I want to have great depth. I should still have three or four studs, but I want to control the end of the middle rounds and get contributors not just bodies.

What will you do differently in this auction because the league is played as a Bestball format?
First would be the quarterback committee I feel has outstanding matchups that I can acquire cheaply. Second, it's the depth as mentioned above. In a normal auction league I would spend a much higher percentage of the budget on the starting skill players. Here I want to back off that and I can't afford both Studs and Depth. I also think bye week management is very important to register better than average scores every week.

What is your nomination strategy in early rounds of the auction? middle rounds of the auction? and towards the end?

Early rounds are either players I am not interested in at the prices I see for them, or trying to throw people off their game plan with nominating a few kickers, defenses or marginal backups early

Middle rounds are for waiting and accumulating money control or rostering bargains that fall

Late in the draft, I should have a minimum of $2 for my empty roster spots and be able to muscle a lot of great buys for $2/$3 or force others to give up their money.

Is your plan to spend cap aggressively and fill many spots at the minimum later, wait for great values and try to control the middle/ends of drafts, etc? If you had to guess, how many players do you think you will have rostered after the first 50 nominations? after the first 100 nominations?
In general it is the latter, but I won't hesitate to deviate from that if too many people are saving money. After the first 50 nominations I might have just two players; likely up to five by 100.

Name the three most important things to winning this league? How will you ensure that you stay to this gameplan if the auction doesn't go as predicted?
If the answer of what's most important for a new restaurant is location; location; location (and it is), then the answer to this draft is value, value, value. That doesn't mean all cheap players; it means getting players who will out produce their perceived value OR having terrific depth because the other teams paid full price for the Stud RB, QB and WR.

I have a very well defined budget sheet for the auction. While you have to be flexible enough not to miss a good player or great value, you have to look at the big picture especially for the depth on the bench. I can easily move dollars from slot to slot or from position to position as necessary.


Andy Hicks

You have $200 cap to spread against 24 players. How many of each position you are looking to have and how much budget is allocated to the positions. ie 3 QBs - $28 budget, 6 RBs - $98 budget, etc.

  • 3-4 QBs = $20
  • 5-6 RBs = $100
  • 6-7 WRs = $60
  • 2-3 TEs = $15
  • 3 PKs = $3
  • 2-3 Defs = $2-3

Name three players you expect to land. These are likely people you think will smash their ADP and therefore would be willing to pay more than the average cost to get the player. Why are you targeting these players? What do you see in their games/opportunities that makes them the key to winning this league?

  • Marshawn Lynch, although someone may try and bid me up on him. He'll be the starter in Buffalo and be a Top 20 RB and get lots of receptions. Anthony Thomas is no threat at all.
  • Philip Rivers - A top 10 QB last year who's valued lower despite still having all his major weapons and has plenty of room for further improvement.
  • Greg Jennings - There's a bit of preseason waffle that may cast doubt in others minds. He'll be fine.

Will you be invoking any handcuffs in this auction? If so which ones are you targeting and how many dollars will you allocate to try and get this handcuff?
It depends on which RBs I land. I'm not getting caught in bidding wars for the sake of it. If I can get the top 2 WR options at 1 club, I will, but I'll be looking to backup my starters if there are clear cut backups. I'll be operating within my planned budgets, but may have to be flexible to get the right handcuffs. Because there isn't any set draft position, you have no idea which player you are likely to have to choose from. ALL players are available and preplanning backups implies a starter is certain to be mine. This can put you in the mindset of overbidding for a player not worth the cost. ALL players will have a price limit attached to them. If they go over I'm not interested, unless it's a must have backup.

There are 10 official starters that count towards your roster each week. How much money will you budget for your top QB, top 2 RBs, top 3 WRs, top TE, top flex, top defense and top PK? (186 is max). Tell us why you think this ratio is ideal for this league style.

  • I'll probably end up paying a similar price for all my QBs, between $5 & $7 each, although I'm prepared to go to $10 if the situation arises.
  • For RBs I'm hoping people overspend on some of the ones I'm not interested in. With 14 people drafting there could be some desperate people forcing the prices up. The hope is to sit back and watch people destroy each other. I hope to spend between $60-70 on my top 2 backs
  • At WR, there will be plenty of options, but for my top 2 I'm happy to spend $40 combined, leaving the rest of my budget to fill the squad
  • At TE, I shouldn't have to spend more than $10 on a player
  • The top flex will be whatever I'm left with. I should have a RB/WR/TE of sufficient quality to cover.
  • Top Defense & Kicker will be the same as the other ones, $1.

What will you do differently in this auction because the league is played as a Bestball format?
Backing up my key starters or maybe taking a flyer on a few players that are likely to be a few games a year specialists. Aside from that I'll be taking best player available with my budget.

What is your nomination strategy in early rounds of the auction? middle rounds of the auction? and towards the end?

  • In the Early stages
    Definitely throw out some budget chewers like Cedric Benson and Travis Henry if they haven't been already and hope for a bidding war. The more money people spend on players I don't think will be value the better it will be for players I like. I'll look at the FBG rankings and see if there are players that 2 or more of the staff involved both really like, way ahead of how I rank them as well. I will be tempted to throw in some Kickers, Defense and Tight Ends that either will be overvalued or ones I hope to snap up on the cheap.
  • In the Middle Rounds
    By this stage some people will have probably shot a large percentage of their budget. This is hammer time. Look at positions they haven't filled and throw some of the higher ranked players out. Reduces the competition or could cause one of the other players to overspend.
  • In the Late rounds
    This is the time to see where holes are in my roster and try and get a few players on the cheap. Fingers crossed I've still got money, there is still some quality and most others are looking for $1 bargains.

Is your plan to spend cap aggressively and fill many spots at the minimum later, wait for great values and try to control the middle/ends of drafts, etc? If you had to guess, how many players do you think you will have rostered after the first 50 nominations? after the first 100 nominations?
I plan to be conservative in the early to middle part of the auction. It will be hard to concentrate for a long period of time, but I need to be focused for key portions of the auction. If a player is undervalued and is available I won't hesitate to grab them. If I have more than 5 players in the first 50 nominations I'll be surprised, I'll be surprised if I have more than 7 in the first 100. Hopefully I won't get restless and overbid out of boredom.

Name the three most important things to winning this league? How will you ensure that you stay to this gameplan if the auction doesn't go as predicted?

  1. Avoid bye week messes. It should be easier to control than in a normal draft, but week 4 has been a killer for me in other drafts. Weeks 5 & 6 look like a minefield as well. Looking to get the best players from a mixture of clubs with different bye weeks will be hard to achieve, but with the right plan it is achievable depending on the madness of others.
  2. Avoid getting stuck with players you didn't want, but were trying to force someone else to overpay with. Some people will try to be clever and attempt this tactic, but unless you are a master of this strategy it needs to be avoided or blowing 20% of your budget on a player you don't fancy is the consequence.
  3. Observe what others are doing, who they are nominating, how they are spending for players they don't get, how many spots/budget do others have left to fill. The guy that is reckless will get caught out anyway. The key is finding a pattern no one else is seeing and trying to hurt one of the better competitors.

Winning will require luck, but with a little careful planning you can put yourself in the driver's seat. If you are not paying attention to others, you are more likely to get ambushed. With 14 participants there will be players who get bought for extravagant prices, but the bargains aren't likely to come until later on. The auction will have to be pretty wild for it not to go as predicted. If it does, in an auction you can adapt your game play much easier than in a straight forward draft.