Upside of Danger
Posted 8/19 by Colin Dowling, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
You got your sleeper list? Good. Got your Draft Dominator tuned and tweaked? Awesome. Got your chicken wings and a couple beers on ice, ready for the draft? Excellent work, my friend. Got your stomach?
Stomach?
Yes. Because if you want to leave the rest of your league in the dust this season, you're going to need it, and not just for the aforementioned wings and beer.
The fact of the matter is that you can build a strong team with a good chance to win using solid projections and strategy. However, put me in the category that doesn't want a strong team with a good chance to win. I want to build a team that makes the rest of my league shudder. I want people to see my squad on the schedule and count it as a loss. I want to build a team that makes the rest of the league realize the best they'll do is second place. You've no doubt already sighed and said, "Well, duh. That's what we all want." As my retort, I'll ask you a serious question: Really?
If you want to build a strong team with a good chance to win, quit reading, because I'm only going to frustrate you. If you want to build a team that has a chance to step on the throats of everyone else in your league, let's get down to business.
Truth is, just like individual players, a high-reward team (which is what we're wanting to build) is often first a high-risk team. In the last few years of drafting, I've had many rosters that looked downright dreadful between draft day and opening day, and I'm sure some of you have too. Recent draft day reaches that were genius in hindsight are things like drafting Clinton Portis as a rookie, selecting Anquan Boldin on a hunch, or selecting Frank Gore to carry your team when his reputation was as an injured under-achiever.
Now, this isn't supposed to be a study in how I personally draft or the decisions I might make. It's also not supposed to be encouragement for you to make silly decisions and reach for players "just because." Like most fantasy players, I've hit some out of the park and I've missed on some (like thinking Robert Ferguson was going to be a great receiver). However, regardless of format, the teams I've had that have led to the greatest success are NOT the teams that are built to be solid, but the team's that are built to absolutely and completely maximize point potential. I often target good players with all the tools and situation to be great. As such, you need to realize that there are times when overpaying or reaching for a guy on draft day looks like an excellent move in hindsight.
Below are three players that strike me as being players that can maximize point potential. It isn't important that you agree with my assessments or not. I'm hoping to show you the logic I'm using so you can apply it to the players you are considering as well. Some of these guys may strike you as obvious value plays, while others look insane. Fair enough; I'm just trying to get you thinking about how to stock a roster full of guys that can blow up in the absolute best way rather then a roster of guys that don't have much room to improve.
Cedric Benson
I have been very vocal about my support for Cedric Benson on our FootballGuys message boards, and I am glad to have another chance to write about him. Cedric Benson's first couple of seasons in the NFL have been far from ideal, but much of that is due to the fact that he hasn't endeared himself much to the public and to a lesser extent, his teammates.
That said, it is completely undeniable that Cedric Benson will begin the season as the lead back for a team that will run the ball close to 500 times behind a good offensive line. Benson is a strong, between the tackles runner with an amazing talent for picking up yardage after contact. He is currently being selected as the 18th running back off the board and after 7 wide receivers. Is Cedric Benson the next Larry Johnson or the next William Green? Only time will tell. But I am certain he has more upside then Edgerrin James, who is being selected right ahead of him. The opportunity to select a player at the beginning of Round 3 (Benson's ADP overall is 26) who has the potential to finish in the top-5 overall is definitely worth considering and, if you're sold like I am, reaching for.
Jerry Porter
Much to my surprise, the fantasy community is behaving as if Jerry Porter blew out his knee or got hit over the head with an anvil last season. Porter's problem in 2006 was that he got in to a season-long argument with his coach and thus spent very little time on the field. The funny thing is that Porter was absolutely correct: Art Shell and Tom Walsh had no business coaching the Raiders.
It would be easy to expect 2007 for Porter to be much more like 2004 and 2005, when he averaged about 70 catches, 975 yards, and 7 touchdowns per season. That in itself would make Porter a great "value play." The bigger question that I'm interested in is, "can this 29 year old still be the downfield, touchdown scoring threat that he was in 2002 and 2004 AND catch more passes then ever before?" Jerry Porter has played with mediocre quarterbacks almost his whole career and his still found a way to shine. Josh McCown is somewhat underrated as he throws a nice deep ball and was really beginning to shine when the plug was pulled on him in Arizona two seasons ago. After that, Jamarcus Russell's ample arm-strength should help Porter stretch the field a ton. Porter's ADP is as the 42nd receiver. If Porter is able to deliver on his talents and fill the role of being a true #1 wide receiver in the league, 80 receptions, 1000 yards, and double digit touchdowns would easily be attainable even in a new offense with a new quarterback and coach.
Jason Campbell
Jason Campbell is the starting quarterback for a team that has spent boatloads of money in recent seasons to improve its offense. Campbell's completion percentage leaves something to be desired, yet his 2006 performance would have placed him in the top 10 among all quarterbacks had he played 16 games. As the 22nd quarterback off the board, Jason Campbell represents great value.
That said, can Campbell be even BETTER then expected? If his production in limited duty last year would have made him a viable starter in fantasy leagues, is it reasonable to assume he will improve and his production will increase accordingly? Is Jason Campbell the young quarterback you really should be targeting as he has already demonstrated good ability but clearly has room to improve?
In summary, the three players above represent a few players who not only have the ability and opportunity to significantly outperform their draft position, but have the ability and opportunity to explode in to the stratosphere and make your opponents wince. Will they? I'm sure opinions will differ, which is a good thing.
However, I would encourage you in the days leading up to the draft to realize that you aren't likely to remember much about a season where your squad went 8-5 and lost in the playoffs just as you won't remember much about a team that goes 5-8 and misses the playoffs entirely. But I assure you, you will remember every player involved and every sweet victory when you hit one out of the park and steamroll over your entire league. My experience has been that the only way to accomplish this is to make some gambles on draft day. Often times those gambles are based more on gut feeling then deep logic. I just hope you have the stomach to handle it.
