Perfect Draft - 10 Teams

Example: Player A has a value of 13 and an ADP of 21. His "drafting" value would be 17. (13 + 21)/2. Conversely, if Player has a value of 21 and an ADP of 13, his "drafting" value would be 21.

Doing this for the Top 250 list yields these Top 50 players (ranked from 1st to 50). *** Note this is a generic list. You can get a tailored list by entering your scoring criteria into the VBD or Draft Dominator applications:

The First 50 Players:

Essentially you are just looking to grab the best player available until this list is exhausted. But use some common sense while you do this. This list includes 25 RBs, so you need to make sure you secure at least 2 or 3 backs off this list (as that position will have dried up considerably).

I would pay little to no attention to bye weeks during this phase. You have plenty of time to adjust after these Top 50 players are gone.

I would limit myself to just 1 QB and 1 TE from this list unless the extra QB or TE is drafted in the 8th round or later (Trade value alone makes the selection worthwhile).

After the Top 50 - Assessment Phase

The transition from the Top 50 to rounding out your team based on need is a critical one. Your anlysis here can instantly turn a good draft into a great one. Here are the questions you should be asking yourself to determine your weaknesses:

By landing 3 RBs, 2 WRs and a TE (including a top RB), you are well on your way to a perfect draft. Quick analysis yields these weaknesses at present: QB (none taken), Week 8 is off to a rough start as your first two selections share that bye week. Week 9 has two players off as well.

Unless significant value presents itself, my next few rounds plan would be:

Note the departure from looking for value at all cost here. RB may represent value at your next pick, but this selected player may never see the field with the stars you have already drafted. It is generally better to fill out your key roster spots instead of amassing a lot of value that you may not be able to use. So use your head. Are you able to select a QB that represents at least fair value (ADP and value numbers are in line with the selection)? If not, then by all means select another quality RB or WR.

Moving to Fill Positional Needs

Quarterbacks

The plan is simple at the quarterback position this year. Unless you grab a top star at value from the Top 50 list above, wait until 8 or 9 quarterbacks are drafted before taking your first. In a 10 team league this strategy will plop you firmly into the sweet spot of quarterback value.

Here are the quality fantasy QBs that I expect should be available after you have finished drafting players from your top 50 list:

Vince Young, Ten (Value = 65th best player, ADP = 75th) in the 8th round or later - He is a true dual threat in this league. I project him for 585 rushing yards and 6 rushing TDs (That's under 37 yards a game). If you buy into those minimal rushing numbers, realize that he only then needs to pass for 167 yards and 1 TD per week to finish where I have him. Although his receivers are among the weakest in the league, I suspect that Young will be playing from behind in many contests. This should yield a lot of garbage time stats (both passing and scrambling for first downs). I think Vince actually represents one of the safer situations this year (provided the Madden jinx doesn't get him).

Tony Romo, Dal (Value = 68, ADP = 74) in the 8th round or later - Dallas has great players at the skill positions (Owens, Glenn, Witten, Crayton, MBIII, etc) to make Romo a very safe bet in 2007. Dallas finished 5th in the league in both passing yards and passing TDs in 2006 with Romo/Bledsoe splitting snaps. The Cowboys should continue where they left off last season. Romo is in no danger of losing his job this season, is playing for a new contract, and has an ofensive coordinator in Jason Garrett that should pass more in the redzone. All of these things spell fantasy success for Tony Romo in 2007.

Jon Kitna, Det (Value = 76th, ADP = 68th) in the 8th round or later - Offensive Coordinator Mike Martz loves to throw the ball. He managed to squeeze 3,820 passing yards out of the Detroit offense in 2006. This was good enough for 7th best in the league. The Lions added possibly the best WR in the NFL draft to come along in the last ten years. Calvin Johnson enters the league with all of the tools and should contribute immediately. He looks to be a great redzone target. Mike Martz led offenses have finished 7th, 4th, 5th, 3rd and 2nd in passing yards over the last five seasons with Detroit and St. Louis. I don't see a reason to believe this trend does not continue.

If Young, Romo and Kitna are gone by the time you draft in the eighth round, look to grab Ben Roethlisberger, Pit in the ninth round.

He is playing in an offense that is expected to throw more in 2007. The Steelers also have some young talented WRs (Santonio Holmes, Cedric Wilson, Nate Washington) to compliment Hines Ward. Willie Parker also has worked hard in the offseason to improve his receiving skills. Ben is poised to crush his ADP of 98.

If all of these players are gone then grab the next best available QB so you don't get shutout playing scrubs. This was a hard lesson learned by me last season. And even though I rallied by grabbing Cutler, Young, Romo and even Alex Smith off the waiver wire in most leagues, it's best to not put yourself in this situation.

I would target these values later in the draft for added depth:

• Brett Favre, GB (Value = 94, ADP = 108) in the 11th round or later.
• Alex Smith, SF (Value = 98, ADP = 117) in the 12th round or later.
• Rex Grossman, Chi (Value = 101, ADP = 150) in the 13th round or later.
• Byron Leftwich, Jac (Value = 133, ADP = 165) in the 16th round or later.

Running Backs

In most leagues, running backs are golden. Yes they can run and catch, but the real reason they are golden is that there simply are not enough of them to go around. But if you followed the Top 50 plan from above, you should have a nice stable of backs on your roster.

But two or three quality backs don't make a powerhouse fantasy roster...Having depth at RB does.

Here are other situation that I think represent value this year (outside of the Top 50 picks):

• Fred Taylor (value = 56, ADP = 71) in the seventh round.
• Tatum Bell (value = 59, ADP = 73) in the seventh round or later.
• DeShaun Foster (value = 55, ADP = 102) in the eighth round or later.
• LenDale White (value = 70, ADP = 104) in the ninth round or later.
• Leon Washington (value = 80, ADP = 144) in the eleventh round or later.
• Brian Leonard (value = 148, ADP = 198) in seventeenth round or later.

  Wide Receivers

  The biggest key to having a great wide receiver corps is following the Top 50 plan above and then swooping in and stealing the players that slide unnecessarily in a draft.

  Here are the WRs I believe will have exceptional value in the draft:

• Santana Moss, Was (value = 45, ADP = 57) in the sixth round or later. He is the clear #1 WR on the Redskins. He is having a great training camp and looks poised to a rebound season.
  
  
• Calvin Johnson, Det (value = 48, ADP = 58) in the sixth round or later. This rookie is special and plays in the Mike Martz led offense. Enough said.
  
  
• Braylon Edwards, Cle (value = 52, ADP = 62) in the seventh round or later. He emerged last year yet gets no love on the anemic Browns. But someone has to catch the ball.
  
  
• Deion Branch, Sea (value = 54, ADP = 61) in the seventh round or later. He is now the #1 WR on the Seahawks after the departure of Darrell Jackson. He is one of the safer draft picks this year at the WR position.
  
  
• Jerricho Cotchery, NYJ (value = 71, ADP = 83) in the mid-eighth round or later. He is flying way below the radar despite a break-through season in 2006.
  
  
• Santonio Holmes, Pit (value = 77, ADP = 95) in the ninth round or later. His stock is rising fast so he could be long gone this late in your draft. He has the talent to supplant Hines Ward as the #1 WR option in Pittsburgh.
  
  
• Isaac Bruce, StL (value = 100, ADP = 123) in the twelveth round or later. Left for the dead with the Drew Bennett signing, but guess what....he is still running with the first team. He is all upside at his current ADP.
  
  
• Brandon Jones, Ten (value = 111, ADP = 139) in the thirteenth round or later. He is currently the #1 WR in Tennessee. Vince Young's scrambling ability (buying more time for the WRs to get open) should elevate his game. Another all-upside selection.
  
  
• Bobby Wade, Min (value = 124, ADP = 213) in the sixteenth round or later. He and Troy Williamson are the current starters at WR.
  
  
• Demetrius Williams, Bal (value = 127, ADP = 219) in the sixteenth round or later. The Ravens tried to move Derrick Mason in the offseason. That should tell the real story about how much they love Demetrius Williams going forward. He has looked great in camp and is clearly a big target in the redzone. Stash him on your roster if you can.
  
  
• Roddy White, Atl (value = 132, ADP = 300) in the seventeenth round or later. He is running with the first team and is having a great camp. At this ADP, he is worth a shot on your bench.
  
  
• Eric Moulds, Ten (value = 162, ADP = 223) in the eighteenth round or later. An after-thought in drafts, Moulds could be exactly what Vince Young needs (a veteran WR that runs crisp routes. We know Moulds isn't what he used to be, but at this price he offers no risk.

  Tight Ends

  Antonio Gates is in a class by himself. But with an average draft position of 31, he should be avoided. In fact, most of the big names at this position should be avoided due to the depth at the position.

  Go ahead and scratch off these names: Antonio Gates, Tony Gonzalez, Jeremy Shockey, Todd Heap, Veron Davis and Chris Cooley this year. Only Jeremy Shockey looks like he could represent value from that list, but still comes at too big a price to pay to warrant selection over RB and WR options in the first six rounds.

  But fear not. There are usually bargains at the tight end position late in a draft. In fact once the top 6-7 names come off the board, there is minimal pressure on the TE position the rest of the draft. It's no surprise that since TEs catch a relatively small amount of passes, primarily on short and intermediate routes (again, excluding the top tier guys), there usually isn't a great deal of variance between the fourth-best TE and the 12th best, witness:

  • 2006 - 4th (113 points), 12th (81 points) = 32 points difference (2.00 per game)
  • 2005 - 4th (119 points), 12th (77 points) = 42 points difference (2.63 per game)
  • 2004 - 4th (113 points), 12th (69 points) = 44 points difference (2.75 per game)
  • 2003 -- 4th (74 points), 12th (65 points) = 9 points difference (0.56 per game)
  • 2002 -- 4th (91 points), 12th (63 points) = 28 points difference (1.75 per game)
  • 5 YR AVG -- 4th (102 points), 12th (71 points) = 31 points difference (1.94 per game)

  So ultimately, once you get past the big TEs, you're really debating over a point or two per week (which is why it is wise to just wait until the later rounds to select a TE).

  The tight end that I will be targeting in most of my drafts this year is Jason Witten (Value = 106, ADP = 105) in the eleventh round or later. He isn't overpriced, but has been steadily increasing his ADP all summer. It's not a sexy pick, but I expect he will be solid all year long. He only scored 1 TD last season, but managed 6 in each of the previous two years. This lack of TD production translated into his fantasy value sliding to 12th overall (from 6th in 2005 and 3rd in 2004). But the fact that his targets increased from 2005 to 2006 (from 89 to 93) indicates the TD decline could have been a fluke. He is being drafted as TE9 which to me represents his floor. He could easily yield top 5 production for a fraction of what a Todd Heap costs.

  Here are the other TEs that I believe will have exceptional value in the draft:

  • Ben Watson, NE (value = 109, ADP = 111) in the twelveth round or later. He is getting absolutely no love since the Patriots acquired Randy Moss, Donte Stallworth and Wes Welker in the offseason. Last year, I saw many instances where Watson was being double-covered. I even remember some games where he had a spy watching him (I laughed pretty hard at that). Teams feared his run after the catch abilities and absolutely feared none of the New England receivers. I expect the additions of deep-threats Moss and Stallworth will actually open up the Watson routes. So before leaving him for dead, understand that Watson has a great opportunity to have his best year yet. Against single coverage, he could rise to the elite status many of us thought he would achieve in 2006.
    
    
  • Bo Scaife, Ten (value = 189, ADP = 253) with your last pick. He is running with the first team and Tennessee has bad WRs. He could be among the league leaders at the position and comes at a bargain basement price.

  Place Kickers

  Who cares right? Well...kind of right. Definitely nothing you should even look at until round 16 this season. But all drafts are different. In leagues that go after kickers early, just wait. You can get an adequate PK three rounds after every other owner has their first. In leagues that draft this position real late, look towards the top of the kicker list in round 16. If your top kicker is available then draft him. Suffice it to say that in a lot of leagues now, people wait too long to take their kickers. As a rule of thumb:

  You can generally maximize kicker value by taking the fifth to eighth kicker off the board.

  In waiver wire friendly leagues (most), don't be afraid to draft just one kicker and add others as necessary during the season to cover the bye weeks and/or exploit matchups.

  Defenses

  Scoring systems generally come into play and define when defenses are taken. I suggest you wait until round 13 to assess what to do about this position. If Chicago, Baltimore or New England are on the board when you pick in round 14, grab one, and be done with this position. If those three teams are gone, I would wait until six to eight defenses have been drafted and then see where the value is.

  Because owners rank defenses so differently, you can generally get good value just by waiting for the value to emerge.

  A winning strategy to deploy after the draft for defenses is simply to look two games ahead in the waiver process. Most teams will have one or two defenses meaning that half of the defenses are available as free agent pick ups each week. By looking two to three weeks ahead at who will be playing Oakland, Tampa Bay, Miami or Houston, you likely can find a cheap defense that should perform well against sub-par offenses. Drop this defense after their "quality game" so that you can continue to pick up other defenses that will have good weeks. Because of this strategy, I advise you to draft just one quality defense and look to play matchups the rest of the way. Every year two or three defenses are predicted to be terrible but end up playing great.

  In Summary

  1. Use the Top 50 List to grab as much "core" talent as possible
  
  
  2. Assess your strengths and weaknesses after the Top 50 picks are gone. Look to fill in your roster as well as adding more RB and WR depth should significant value be present.
  
  
  3. QB value is available throughout the draft so just wait until it emerges. Look to grab your first QB after 8 or 9 have been taken.
  
  
  4. Stockpile value wide receivers. Some will bust, but others will help you win your league. In start 3 WR leagues, allocate 8 roster spots for wide receivers.
  
  
  5. Wait on TE and target Jason Witten in the 11th round.
  
  
  6. Wait on defense, but don't be afraid to grab the first or second one in round 13. If defenses go earlier than normal, wait for 6-8 defenses to be picked before you take your first. Do not add a second defense. Work the waiver wire weeks ahead of great matchups for value.
  
  
  7. Wait on kicker, but don't be afraid to grab the first or second on your list in round 16. If kickers go early, take the fifth to eighth kicker off the board.
  
  

  Well that is it folks. Hope you all do well in your coming drafts. Remember, the key is not to just follow the Top 200 list but to see where it differs substantially from average drafts. This is how you get value with every pick. And value is how you build winning fantasy teams.