Players On The Rise

  Posted 8/7 by David Dodds, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

Every year a few players emerge from seemingly nowhere to dominate their position. Everyone who failed to draft these goldmines complains how fantasy football is simply luck. I'd like to tell you that I have a fool-proof method of picking these emerging stars, but nothing in fantasy football is an exact science. I do however have a method that seems to find some of them each year.

So what do these "breakout" players have in common? I am embarrassed at the simplicity......Simply look for players that are 30 years old (or younger) and have increased their fantasy point totals for three straight years. I've used this strategy year after year with outstanding results. Breakout players usually don't just happen. They gain confidence as they learn their respective craft and offensive playbooks.

Here are the players that meet the criteria (sorted by the likelihood of a breakout season and alphabetically by position). A breakout season is defined as having a season better than his average draft position and good enough to help your fantasy squad.

Grade A Candidates (Very Likely)

J.P. Losman, Buffalo (ADP - QB20, 133 overall)

He has quietly increased his games, attempts, completions, yards per attempt, passing yards, TDs and fantasy points in his first three seasons. Losman could yield outstanding value if it all comes together for him this season.

YR	TM	G	CMP	ATT	PYD	Y/A	PTD	INT	RSH	YD	Y/R	TD	FPT	RANK	VBD
2004	BUF	4	3	5	32	6.4	0	1	2	15	7.5	0	2	71	0	[game logs]	[splits]
2005	BUF	9	113	228	1340	5.9	8	8	31	154	5.0	0	106	34	0	[game logs]	[splits]
2006	BUF	16	268	429	3051	7.1	19	14	38	140	3.7	1	235	14	0	[game logs]	[splits]
TOT		29	384	662	4423	6.7	27	23	71	309	4.4	1	343		0

Willie Parker, Pittsburgh (ADP - RB8, 8 overall)

It's hard to imagine him getting better, but that might be exactly what happens this season as the Steelers move to a spread offense (that should yield more running lanes). Despite having three games where Fast Willie was held to less than 30 yards rushing, he finished the year as the 5th best RB. In the offseason, he was working out with an expert track coach and looks to be in the best shape of his life. And despite rumors that he could be spelled at the goal line, Willie looks like one of the few RBs to play as a three-down back.

YR	TM	G	RSH	YD	Y/R	TD	TRG	REC	YD	Y/R	TD	FPT	RANK	VBD
2004	PIT	8	32	186	5.8	0	6	3	16	5.3	0	20	92	0	[game logs]	[splits]
2005	PIT	15	255	1202	4.7	4	24	18	218	12.1	1	172	15	29	[game logs]	[splits]
2006	PIT	16	337	1494	4.4	13	41	31	222	7.2	3	268	5	107	[game logs]	[splits]
TOT		39	624	2882	4.6	17	71	52	456	8.8	4	460		136

WR Arnaz Battle, San Francisco (ADP - WR64, 193 overall)

People keep counting him out and he keeps quieting the critics. The 49ers brought in Darrell Jackson and Ashley Lelie in the offseason, but I expect Battle to beat out Lelie and start opposite of Jackson. Both Jackson and Lelie possess hands of stone, so Battle could be in for his best year yet.

YR	TM	G	RSH	YD	Y/R	TD	TRG	REC	YD	Y/R	TD	FPT	RANK	VBD
2004	SF	14	2	5	2.5	0	10	8	143	17.9	0	15	128	0	[game logs]	[splits]
2005	SF	10	8	11	1.4	0	54	32	363	11.3	3	57	72	0	[game logs]	[splits]
2006	SF	16	5	25	5.0	0	87	59	686	11.6	3	89	45	0	[game logs]	[splits]
TOT		48	17	55	3.2	0	151	99	1192	12.0	6	162		0

WR Jerricho Cotchery, New York Jets (ADP - WR29, 83 overall)

He finished strong in 2006 catching 51 passes for 600 yards and 4 TDs in his last 8 games. He could overtake Laveranues Coles as the go-to receiver on the Jets this season.

YR	TM	G	RSH	YD	Y/R	TD	TRG	REC	YD	Y/R	TD	FPT	RANK	VBD
2004	NYJ	12	0	0	0.0	0	10	6	60	10.0	0	6	143	0	[game logs]	[splits]
2005	NYJ	16	1	4	4.0	0	32	19	251	13.2	0	26	105	0	[game logs]	[splits]
2006	NYJ	16	5	25	5.0	0	125	82	961	11.7	6	135	23	18	[game logs]	[splits]
TOT		44	6	29	4.8	0	167	107	1272	11.9	6	167		18

WR Patrick Crayton, Dallas (ADP - WR77, 250 overall)

He has improved his targets, catches, yards and TDs in each of his first three seasons. Owens and Glenn are still playing well, but may yield some playing time this season to an improving Crayton. Crayton caught an impressive 75% of his targets last year. At his ADP, he offers tremendous upside.

YR	TM	G	RSH	YD	Y/R	TD	TRG	REC	YD	Y/R	TD	FPT	RANK	VBD
2004	DAL	7	0	0	0.0	0	14	12	162	13.5	1	21	114	0	[game logs]	[splits]
2005	DAL	11	1	0	0.0	0	35	22	341	15.5	2	46	83	0	[game logs]	[splits]
2006	DAL	16	0	0	0.0	0	48	36	516	14.3	4	76	56	0	[game logs]	[splits]
TOT		34	1	0	0.0	0	97	70	1019	14.6	7	143		0

WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Cincinnati (ADP - WR11, 34 overall)

Known more for the funny commercial featuring the mispronunciation of his name, TJ came up huge in 2006. Despite playing just 14 games, TJ finished as the 11th best WR last season. And with Chris Henry suspended for the first half of the 2007 season, TJ could be in for his best year yet.

YR	TM	G	RSH	YD	Y/R	TD	TRG	REC	YD	Y/R	TD	FPT	RANK	VBD
2004	CIN	16	6	51	8.5	0	104	73	978	13.4	4	127	31	0	[game logs]	[splits]
2005	CIN	14	8	62	7.8	1	115	78	956	12.3	7	150	14	33	[game logs]	[splits]
2006	CIN	14	3	6	2.0	0	133	90	1081	12.0	9	163	11	46	[game logs]	[splits]
TOT		74	17	119	7.0	1	421+	303	3735	12.3	21	518		79

WR Michael Jenkins, Atlanta (ADP - WR62, 175 overall)

It's hard to say how good Jenkins is. Vick consistently failed to get his receivers (preferred TE Alge Crumpler) involved in the offense and the Falcons ran more than they threw. With Vick unlikely to play in 2007 and Warrick Dunn out to start the season, the team is counting on Joey Harrington to get the ball downfield to move the chains. I expect Harrington will improve upon Vick's passing numbers and Jenkins could be the recipient of the extra passing plays.

YR	TM	G	RSH	YD	Y/R	TD	TRG	REC	YD	Y/R	TD	FPT	RANK	VBD
2004	ATL	16	1	2	2.0	0	11	7	119	17.0	0	12	136	0	[game logs]	[splits]
2005	ATL	14	0	0	0.0	0	71	36	508	14.1	3	69	60	0	[game logs]	[splits]
2006	ATL	16	1	2	2.0	0	84	39	436	11.2	7	86	50	0	[game logs]	[splits]
TOT		46	2	4	2.0	0	166	82	1063	13.0	10	167		0

WR Reggie Williams, Jacksonville (ADP - WR51, 149 overall)

Reggie was on fire to start the season and seemed to be on the same page as Byron Leftwich. Unfortunately Leftwich got injured and didn't play after week 7. Williams disappeared in weeks 7 through 11 (catching just 4 passes on 19 targets). He finished the year with 88 and 90 yard performances in weeks 15 and 17. Byron Leftwich returns as the starter and should help Reggie Williams become a more consistent threat.

YR	TM	G	RSH	YD	Y/R	TD	TRG	REC	YD	Y/R	TD	FPT	RANK	VBD
2004	JAX	16	0	0	0.0	0	48	27	268	9.9	1	33	100	0	[game logs]	[splits]
2005	JAX	16	2	3	1.5	0	63	35	445	12.7	0	45	85	0	[game logs]	[splits]
2006	JAX	16	7	33	4.7	0	92	52	616	11.8	4	89	46	0	[game logs]	[splits]
TOT		48	9	36	4.0	0	203	114	1329	11.7	5	167		0

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Grade B Candidates (Likely)

RB Michael Turner, San Diego (ADP - RB41, 100 overall)

He has the skillset to be a very good player in this league. His problem is he plays behind LaDainian Tomlinson. But with playoff aspirations for San Diego this year, look for Turner to spell Tomlinson more this year to keep Tomlinson fresh for the playoffs. The "Burner" will be playing for a new contract and we fully expect him to be at his best this season. He has increased his carries, yards, yards per carry, and fantasy points in his first three years.

YR	TM	G	RSH	YD	Y/R	TD	TRG	REC	YD	Y/R	TD	FPT	RANK	VBD
2004	SD	13	20	104	5.2	0	5	4	8	2.0	0	11	114	0	[game logs]	[splits]
2005	SD	16	57	335	5.9	3	1	0	0	0.0	0	52	63	0	[game logs]	[splits]
2006	SD	13	80	502	6.3	2	3	3	47	15.7	0	67	51	0	[game logs]	[splits]
TOT		42	157	941	6.0	5	9	7	55	7.9	0	130		0

TE L.J. Smith, Philadelphia (ADP - TE11, 112 overall)

Injuries decimated the Eagles last year so it's hard to know if last year was a fluke or this player is on the rise. This much we do know though...McNabb was on fire last year before going down with an injury. The Eagles' WRs are not world beaters so we have every expectation that LJ Smith can continue to shine in this offense. Perhaps this is the year he rises to elite fantasy production.

YR	TM	G	TRG	REC	YD	Y/R	TD	FPT	RANK	VBD
2004	PHI	16	45	34	377	11.1	5	68	13	0	[game logs]	[splits]
2005	PHI	16	107	61	682	11.2	3	86	9	9	[game logs]	[splits]
2006	PHI	16	80	50	611	12.2	5	91	9	10	[game logs]	[splits]
TOT		63	273	172	1991	11.6	14	283		19

TE Ben Watson, New England (ADP - TE10, 109 overall)

Last year the Patriots had garbage receivers. The good news was Tom Brady looked to Watson a lot. The bad news was defenses looked to remove him from the equation and he saw difficult coverage most games. The Patriots reloaded in the offseason bringing in Randy Moss, Donte Stallworth and Wes Welker. Additionally TE Daniel Graham left for the Broncos. So it's a fluid situation. Watson should see single coverage again (and not be the emphasis of the defense), but there could be less targets coming his way.

YR	TM	G	TRG	REC	YD	Y/R	TD	FPT	RANK	VBD
2004	NE	1	4	2	16	8.0	0	2	95	0	[game logs]	[splits]
2005	NE	15	54	29	441	15.2	4	68	15	0	[game logs]	[splits]
2006	NE	13	92	49	643	13.1	3	82	10	1	[game logs]	[splits]
TOT		29	150	80	1100	13.8	7	152		1

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Grade C Candidates (Maybe)

RB Steven Jackson, St. Louis (ADP - RB2, 2 overall)

It's scary to think he could actually improve upon his huge season last year, but it's certainly possible. He has improved his rushing yards, rushing TDs, receptions, receiving yards, receiving TDs and fantasy points in each of his first three seasons. Where is his ceiling?

YR	TM	G	RSH	YD	Y/R	TD	TRG	REC	YD	Y/R	TD	FPT	RANK	VBD
2004	STL	14	134	673	5.0	4	24	19	189	9.9	0	110	33	0	[game logs]	[splits]
2005	STL	15	254	1046	4.1	8	55	43	320	7.4	2	197	11	54	[game logs]	[splits]
2006	STL	16	346	1528	4.4	13	111	90	806	9.0	3	329	3	168	[game logs]	[splits]
TOT		45	734	3247	4.4	25	190	152	1315	8.7	5	636		222

RB Maurice Morris, Seattle (ADP - RB62, 203 overall)

He achieved a lot of his stats last year due to the injury of Shaun Alexander. Alexander is getting older, but it will likely take him getting injured for Morris to improve upon last year's numbers.

YR	TM	G	RSH	YD	Y/R	TD	TRG	REC	YD	Y/R	TD	FPT	RANK	VBD
2004	SEA	15	30	126	4.2	0	19	9	53	5.9	0	18	95	0	[game logs]	[splits]
2005	SEA	16	71	288	4.1	1	6	5	48	9.6	0	40	72	0	[game logs]	[splits]
2006	SEA	16	161	604	3.8	0	20	11	46	4.2	0	65	53	0	[game logs]	[splits]
TOT		74	332	1410	4.2	1	54	32	204	6.4	1	174		0

RB Dominic Rhodes, Oakland (ADP - RB47, 129 overall)

I would like his chances better if he wasn't suspended the first 4 games for violating the league's substance abuse policy. He also must learn a new offense and play behind a worse line. On the positive side, he only needs to beat out LaMont Jordan though so could represent value in the second half of the season.

YR	TM	G	RSH	YD	Y/R	TD	TRG	REC	YD	Y/R	TD	FPT	RANK	VBD
2004	IND	16	53	254	4.8	1	3	2	24	12.0	0	34	78	0	[game logs]	[splits]
2005	IND	13	40	118	3.0	4	16	13	88	6.8	0	45	68	0	[game logs]	[splits]
2006	IND	16	187	641	3.4	5	46	36	251	7.0	0	119	33	0	[game logs]	[splits]
TOT		71	550	2274	4.1	19	72+	91	649	7.1	1	413		52

RB Cecil Sapp, Denver (ADP - unranked)

He only scored 11 fantasy points all season, but is challenging for the #2 role behind Travis Henry. I suspect he will improve upon his numbers, but it remains to be seen whether he will yield big enough numbers to warrant a roster spot this season.

YR	TM	G	RSH	YD	Y/R	TD	TRG	REC	YD	Y/R	TD	FPT	RANK	VBD
2004	DEN	5	4	32	8.0	0	0	0	0	0.0	0	3	151	0	[game logs]	[splits]
2005	DEN	16	5	21	4.2	0	2	2	17	8.5	0	4	136	0	[game logs]	[splits]
2006	DEN	11	10	80	8.0	0	10	8	34	4.2	0	11	105	0	[game logs]	[splits]
TOT		33	31	164	5.3	0	12	10	51	5.1	0	21		0

RB LaDainian Tomlinson, San Diego (ADP - RB1, 1 overall)

He is already all-world and just came off a season where he scored 427 fantasy points. Is it possible that he has an even better season in him this year? I suppose it's possible, but highly improbable (especially after setting the TD record last season).

YR	TM	G	RSH	YD	Y/R	TD	TRG	REC	YD	Y/R	TD	FPT	RANK	VBD
2004	SD	15	339	1335	3.9	17	66	53	441	8.3	1	288	3	130	[game logs]	[splits]
2005	SD	16	339	1462	4.3	18	76	51	370	7.3	2	318	3	174	[game logs]	[splits]
2006	SD	16	348	1815	5.2	28	80	56	508	9.1	3	427	1	266	[game logs]	[splits]
TOT		95	2050	9176	4.5	100	460+	398	2900	7.3	11	1904		1012

TE Desmond Clark, Chicago (ADP - TE18, 188 overall)

He finished as the 8th TE in 2006, but now must compete for time with rookie Greg Olsen who has looked great in training camp.

YR	TM	G	TRG	REC	YD	Y/R	TD	FPT	RANK	VBD
2004	CHI	15	41	24	282	11.8	1	34	32	0	[game logs]	[splits]
2005	CHI	16	49	24	229	9.5	2	35	29	0	[game logs]	[splits]
2006	CHI	16	80	45	626	13.9	6	99	8	17	[game logs]	[splits]
TOT		113	244+	218	2522	11.6	20	373		34

TE Alge Crumpler, Atlanta (ADP - TE5, 73 overall)

At his current ADP of TE5, it remains to be seen if Crumpler has any upside left. Vick looked for him often and it will be interesting to see how that impacts his stats as he plays with Joey Harrington. I am not discounting Crumpler's skills, but I think last year will be difficult to repeat. He finished last season as the #2 TE and scored 8 TDs.

YR	TM	G	TRG	REC	YD	Y/R	TD	FPT	RANK	VBD
2004	ATL	14	74	48	774	16.1	6	113	4	44	[game logs]	[splits]
2005	ATL	16	118	65	877	13.5	5	118	5	41	[game logs]	[splits]
2006	ATL	16	103	56	780	13.9	8	126	2	45	[game logs]	[splits]
TOT		94	432+	274	3768	13.8	30	557		151

TE Reggie Kelly, Cincinnati (ADP - unranked)

The Bengals don't usually use the TE much which severely limits Kelly's upside. With Chris Henry slated to miss half of the season, the Bengals could rely on Kelly a bit more, but it still won't likely be enough except in the deepest leagues.

YR	TM	G	TRG	REC	YD	Y/R	TD	FPT	RANK	VBD
2004	CIN	16	18	15	85	5.7	0	9	71	0	[game logs]	[splits]
2005	CIN	15	18	15	90	6.0	1	15	51	0	[game logs]	[splits]
2006	CIN	16	33	21	254	12.1	1	31	35	0	[game logs]	[splits]
TOT		121	104+	133	1300	9.8	5	160		0

Others

QB David Garrard, Jacksonville

He starts the season on the bench and out of favor with the Jacksonville coaching staff.

RB Justin Griffith, Oakland (New Team)

He moves to a new team that likely will be playing from behind a lot (thereby abandoning the run often). I don't see big things for Griffith this season.

RB Mike Karney, New Orleans

His best season still earned him just 70th place among RBs. Doubtful he can make much of an impact in an offense that features RBs Deuce McAllister and Reggie Bush

WR Aaron Moorehead, Indianpolis

The Colts drafted Anthony Gonzalez in the first round of this year's draft killing any value going forward.

TE John Gilmore, Chicago

The team drafted Greg Olsen in the first round of this year's draft killing any value going forward.

TE George Wrighster, Jacksonville

He surprisingly finished as the #19 TE last season, but is in a dogfight for playing time this year. The Jaguars signed Jermain Wiggins in the offseason and most expect 2nd year Marcedes Lewis to contribute more this year as well.