From the Gut Part 2 (WRs and TEs)

  Posted 8/24 by David Dodds, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

I know a lot of people are drafting within the next couple of days so I thought I would just start typing what I am thinking as I approach my own drafts.

As I comb through mounds and mounds of data to help me publish projections, I still think back to some of my best fantasy rosters when I went in with a short list of guys I wanted to nab. Yes we are talking pre-VBD days where I had a Cheatsheet and about 20 players highlighted that I positively wanted on my team. I did not care that every player had value. I wanted these guys. Yes I am a VBD convert now and I take the projections I create at Footballguys.com very seriously, but...

Sometimes you just have to follow your gut.

Below is a list of players, strategies and just random thoughts that are buzzing in my head. And as Joe and I have set out to do all year long, we want you to know what we know. So here goes...

Wide Receivers

T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Cin (ADP = WR9, 32nd overall) - My gut tells me TJ explodes this season. The loss of Chris Henry for the first half of the season mandates both Chad Johnson and TJ Houshmandzadeh will get a lot of targets. Chad is the more athletic player, but that also comes with the tougher coverage on most plays. Last season, TJ caught 90 passes for 1,081 yards and 9 TDs. That was good enough for WR11 despite missing two games. Most people see Carson Palmer throwing for 30+ TDs. Tab Perry and Antonio Chatman look horrible this preseason. The Bengals' RB Rudi Johnson doesn't catch many passes. The tight end position is a complete after-thought. Chris Henry had 605 receiving yards and 9 TDs in 13 games last year. If even 25% of those numbers end up with TJ, he will crush his current draft position.

Javon Walker, Den (ADP = WR10, 33rd overall) - He finished as the ninth best WR and is having a great camp. It's hard to think this draft position represents value, but my gut tells me it does. Jay Cutler has one of the best deep balls in the game. He also has a stud RB this year in Travis Henry. My gut tells me defenses bite on the play-action and Javon gets his share of long passes in 2007. With a career average of 15.6 yards per catch, Javon likely only needs to catch 80+ catches to have a year approaching his season in 2004 where he finished as WR #2. He had 125 targets in 2006. I suspect that numbers goes up substantially in 2007.

Randy Moss, NE (ADP = WR14, 40th overall) - My gut tells me his average draft position is all risk and reflects the best case scenario. The fact that he hasn't practiced all pre-season due to nagging injuries and that he now plays in an offense that will spread the ball around, I see little to like about this situation. Moss will likely have a few good games (and his presence on the field should open up the middle for guys like TE Ben Watson and WR Wes Welker), but at his current ADP he won't be on any of my teams this season.

Plaxico Burress, NYG (ADP = WR17, 49th overall) - He is lazy. He hates to practice. He carries a lot of attitude. But my gut tells me that the Giants are going to need to throw a lot this year to move the chains. Amani Toomer is about to collect Social Security and their pass-catching RB retired. I expect Eli Manning to throw it often to Burress.

Hines Ward, Pit (ADP = WR18, 50th overall) - All players lose a step eventually. And I think Ward has lost at least a step. He no longer takes over games like he used to. He still runs great routes and is the consummate team player (great downfield blocker, etc). But at WR18, I want a player that has the potential to be top 5-10 at his position. I think this ADP reflects the best possible outcome for Hines Ward. MY gut tells me he underperforms this slot by a wide margin.

Calvin Johnson, Det (ADP = WR20, 54th overall) - We all know the facts: Rookie WRs not named Randy Moss generally struggle in their firsty season at the new level. But my gut tells me that Calvin Johnson is more like Randy Moss than the typical 1st round WR draft choice. He has a great WR opposite of him in Roy Williams and plays in an offense led by Mike Martz. Seeing how an average player like Mike Furrey had 146 targets in this offense, it's hard not to get giddy about what Johnson can do in this pass-happy system. I suspect by the end of the year we all will be asking ourselves why we let this guy slip in our fantasy drafts. Talent + System overrides the rookie concerns in my opinion. I expect big things all season long.

Braylon Edwards, Cle (ADP = WR24, 65th overall) - The quarterback situation is in flux, but Edwards is the clear #1 WR on a team where old man Jamal Lewis will be running the ball. Along with the rest of the world, I don't see this team winning a lot of games either (tough division games, etc). Add it all up and it seems like this team will have to throw the ball a lot. I expect his targets, receptions, yards and TDs to all improve in his third season. And he finished as the 26th best WR last year. His ADP represents his floor in my opinion and is someone I am targeting in most leagues.

Darrell Jackson, SF (ADP = WR25, 66th overall) - He is finally healthy and is the clear #1 WR in San Francisco right now. But having watched him under-achieve every single year (too many drops, always limited due to injuries), I have decided to stay away this season. New system, new QB, injury history, team that loves to run the ball are all red flags to me. I think the WR to target in San Francisco is Arnaz Battle. He can be drafted much later and is more familiar with the plays on offense.

Chris Chambers, Mia (ADP = WR26, 72nd overall) - I have a really bad feeling that the Dolphins are going to be awful this year. Trent Green looks lost running the offense. Cleo Lemon may actually give the Dolphins their best chance to win and that says a lot about how badly they need a QB. Chambers always teases us with his talent, but consistently drops enough passes to end up again with a sub-par year. I am not taking the Kool-Aid this year. I will let others draft him at this price.

Terry Glenn, Dal (ADP = WR33, 90th overall) - He had arthroscopic surgery on August 1st and was expected to be out two weeks. Now they are hoping he will be ready for the opener. He is 33 years old and at this age your body doesn't recover like it used to. The Cowboys want to get Owens, Witten and Crayton more involved in the Jason Garrett offense. I know Glenn played well last year, but the vibe I have this year is he falters. If Glenn doesn't go in week 1, my gut tells me that Patrick Crayton significantly cuts into Glenn's playing time and numbers this season.

Santonio Holmes, Pit (ADP = WR34, 93rd overall) - The Steelers have installed a pass-friendly offense that looks to get the ball downfield. And the guy that looks to benefit the most in this scheme is Santonio Holmes. He is great with yards after the catch and should vie to be the #1 WR option for the Steelers this year. Let other's overpay for Hines Ward. This is the guy you want on your fantasy rosters (cheaper cost and huge upside in 2007)

Kevin Curtis, Phi (ADP = WR38, 108th overall) - I have a bad feeling about Curtis. It's easy to get excited about his prospects as he moves from a #3 receiver to a starter with the Eagles. But I just don't picture him as a starting caliber player. He is small by NFL standards - 5 foot 11 and just 186 lbs. That seems dangerously skinny for the NFL for me. Add to the fact that he is changing teams and I will let someone else draft him this season. I will admit though that I could be way wrong about him. He is in a pass-first offense and doesn't have much competition to replace him.

Isaac Bruce, StL (ADP = WR40, 114th overall) - Talk about someone getting no love. Yes he is getting old, but I don't think he has lost a step. Drew Bennett was brought in to compete, but failed to replace Bruce in the starting lineup. Torry Holt is banged up to enter the season and is the player that has seen his yards per catch slide into the old category of less than 13 yards per reception. Bruce, on the other hand, has seen his yards per catch increase each year for the past 5 seasons. Those aren't stats of someone slowing down. At this ADP, Bruce is all upside and should be the Ram WR you are targeting this season.

Jerry Porter, Oak (ADP = WR41, 115th overall) - Supposedly he is the best WR on the Raiders. Ask him and he will tell you so. But my gut (and my eyes watching the Raiders play) is telling me that Ronald Curry is the more complete player. Porter could still surpass WR41, but I prefer to taking Curry at an even better price.

Joe Horn, Atl (ADP = WR43, 126th overall) - He looked OLD last season when I saw him on the field. At age 35, in a new offense and now having the inaccurate Joey Harrington throwing him the ball we are suppose to think he will do OK? Someone else can drink the Kool-Aid here. I give Joe Horn just a few games as the starter before the team starts playing their younger players with a lot more upside. Horn is old and my gut tells me this could be the year where the wheels fall off.

Derick Mason, Bal (ADP = WR45, 134th overall) - The telling situation was how hard the Ravens worked in the offseason trying to trade Mason. They didn't get the offer they had hoped too so he remains with the team. But make no mistake about it. The Ravens love both Mark Clayton and Demetrius Williams. In my opinion, they are the two Ravens WRs that are worth rostering this year.

Ronald Curry, Oak (ADP = WR47, 138th overall) - My gut tells me that Curry is primed for a breakout season. He finished as the 55th best WR last year despite having just 1 TD catch. He looked very sharp in weeks 14-16 last year and has been the best WR in training camp. Let someone else grab Jerry Porter, this is the Oakland receiver to nab late. He is among the safest selections to make this season.

Brandon Marshall, Den (ADP = WR50, 143rd overall) - This has been a weird offseason between the offseason stuff, his training camp injuries, etc. He clearly was in the Shanahan doghouse a few weeks ago, but is now practicing and showing what his freakish athletic talent can do. He is still very much a kid (read immature) so he could go either way, but my gut tells me his athletic skills are going to shine in a Cutler led offense. And there is no mistaking these skills. He is fast and strong, can outjump corners to get the ball. At 6-4 and 230 lbs he is a beast on the field. Here's hoping he can mature into this body and show the league how great he can be. He reminds me of a young Terrell Owens. And my gut says this kid could be very special starting as early as this season. And at WR50, he is clearly worth the risk because his upside is off the charts.

Dwayne Jarrett, Car (ADP = WR56, 164th overall) - Sometimes it's all about the backstory. The Panthers let Keyshawn Johnson go days after drafting Jarrett. They didn't wait to see him in camp. They knew what they had. And although Jarrett is struggling a tad as a rookie, I believe he will be the #2 WR in Carolina by midseason at worst. Keyshawn was the 35th best WR in this offense last year. I suspect Jarrett will be that good from the half-way mark on. Steve Smith can't catch all of the balls.

Arnaz Battle, SF (ADP = WR57, 168th overall) - This guy just keeps beating the odds. With a great work ethic, Battle continues to beat out veterans, come back from injuries, etc to win starting gigs. He has looked fantastic this offseason and I believe he will emerge as the #1 WR for the 49ers (I suspect that Darrell Jackson will again miss time due to injuries). At WR57, you just want a player with some upside that is not in any danger of losing his spot. I think Battle fits that criteria to a tee. Ashley Lelie has looked horrible and the coaches love Battle's approach to the game. My gut tells he will greatly outperform where he is being drafted.

Patrick Crayton, Dal (ADP = WR64, 197th overall) - As stated in the Glenn writeup above, I think this is Crayton's time. He has improved his targets, receptions, TDs and fantasy points in his first three seasons. My gut is telling me that Glenn won't be able to stay on the field and that Crayton is ready to rsie to the challenge as the starter opposite Owens. He has no downside at this draft spot.

Demetrius Williams, Bal (ADP = WR69, 213th overall) - He may not start the year as a starter (Mason currently holds the job), but I am pretty sure he will end the year in that role. He is a redzone machine so even as WR3, he could score a lot of TDs. He just needs the opportunity as the talent is not in question. He is a rising star in this game and looks ready to respond to a bigger role. My gut tells me this is someone to roster in every league if you can.

Bryant Johnson, Ari (ADP = WR76, 243rd overall) - He is logjammed behind Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald, but he is quite the WR too. It will likely take an injury to one of the two star WRs for Johnson to breakout, but if that injury did happen I suspect Johnson would seize the opportunity and post lofty stats. He is that good. Even as a number 3 WR, I sense he will smash his current ADP. Again a no-risk proposition.

Craig Davis, SD (ADP = WR77, 246th overall) - Many questioned the Chargers for this selection in this year's draft. Now after shining daily in camp, he has emerged as the starter opposite Vincent Jackson. I am not betting against him. He looks polished running routes (well ahead of most rookie WRs) and is the perfect compliment for the physical play of Jackson and Gates. With teams worried about Gates, Jackson and Tomlinson, my gut tells me that Craig Davis will be open on most plays. Rivers has looked sharp in camp and I think he and Davis are going to connect a lot this year.

James Jones, GB (ADP = WR83, 257th overall) - Every year there are a handful of players where every press clipping is about how they are making every play in traing camp. James Jones is that player in 2007. He shines in practice and continues that solid play in the preseason games. He is doing everything right. Add the Donald Driver injury just suffered in camp and an under-achieving Greg Jennings and you have a situation where Jones could explode onto the scene this year. Another person you should be attempting to roster in virtually every league.

Steve Smith, NYG (ADP = WR87, 269th overall) - Old man Toomer is well....old. Toomer is also coming off ACL surgery. Give me the younger successful college player everytime in this situation. Steve Smith was a TD machine at USC. My gut tells me by midseason (or sooner), he will overtake Toomer as the starting WR opposite of Burress.

Roddy White, Atl (ADP = WR89, 274th overall) - He is having a great camp, but with everyone focused on dogfighting no one seems to be noticing. My gut tells me he will emerge as the #1 WR this season over Horn and Jenkins. And even with the eratic play of Joey Harrington, White will represent value at this ADP.

Jacksonville WRs - I don't think the mess going on with these WRs and the coaching staff is lip-service. I think the coaches hate the inconsistent play of Reggie Williams and Matt Jones. But we all know that Dennis Northcutt is not the guy (despite him running with the 1st team in practice). The person that I think eventually emerges from all of this is rookie Mike Walker, but he isn't worth a roster spot right now (as he is completely off the radar in drafts). My gut tells me to roster no Jacksonville WRs and watch to see if Jones and Williams keep faltering. If they do, grab Walker by week 3 because the coaches are going to likely get him in the mix.

Tight Ends

Vernon Davis, SF (ADP = TE5, 73rd overall) - At an ADP of TE5, it's easy to hate where this kid is being drafted. I don't have him in any leagues as I prefer to try and snag Witten or Watson later, but my gut tells me that Davis is indeed someone special. I suspect his run after the catch numbers will be among the best in the league. He is a freakish athlete and the 49ers will get him involved. Young TEs usually take multiple seasons before it all comes together, but something tells me Davis could be the exception.

Jason Witten, Dal (ADP = TE9, 100th overall) - He finished as the 12th best TE last season despite catching just 1 TD. He finished 6th and 3rd the two seasons prior. Jason Garrett has promised to get Witten more involved and I believe him. He is the ultimate no risk pick at the TE position this year.

Ben Watson, NE (ADP = TE10, 111th overall) - All the attention is on Moss and Stallworth, but my gut tells me this extra attention is going to free up the middle of the field (an area that Brady traditionally as been great in). Last year, Ben Watson was double-teamed and even drew a spy on some plays. I remember watching that and realizing how little defenses respected what the Patriots were lining up at wide receiver. That all changes this year. My gut tells me that Watson lives up to the hype he had last year. With a better price and an improved situation, Watson is another very safe pick this season.

LJ Smith, Phi (ADP = TE14, 130th overall) - His preseason injury caused his ADP to plummet and now represents great value in drafts this year. His skillset is average at best, but with McNabb throwing the ball, he will get enough targets to crush his draft position. My gut tells me this is a player worth rostering on the cheap in 2007.

Bo Scaife, Ten (ADP = TE21, 209th overall) - It's all about chemistry sometimes. Scaife played with Vince Young at the University of Texas and continues to play well in the pros with Vince throwing the ball. The Titans also have Ben Troupe, but I am not going to bet against all of these years of combined chemistry. Vince always seems to know where Scaife is. At TE21, Scaife is all upside and could crack the top 10 this season.

Marcedes Lewis, Jac (ADP = TE27, 253rd overall) - The Jaguars want to feature the tight end and run out of 2 TE formations often (to maximize having blockers for their dynamic run game). They have three decent ones on their roster (Wiggins, Wrighster and Lewis), but my gut tells me that Lewis is the one who could emerge. He had a quiet rookie season last year, but is having a good camp. He has been running with the first team offense in practice and should start the year in that role. My gut tells me Lewis is used often in this offense and he shines for the Jaguars in 2007