From the Gut part 1 (QBs and RBs)
Posted 8/12 by David Dodds, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
I know a lot of people are drafting within the next couple of weeks so I thought I would just start typing what I am thinking as I approach my own drafts.
As I comb through mounds and mounds of data to help me publish projections, I still think back to some of my best fantasy rosters when I went in with a short list of guys I wanted to nab. Yes we are talking pre-VBD days where I had a Cheatsheet and about 20 players highlighted that I positively wanted on my team. I did not care that every player had value. I wanted these guys. Yes I am a VBD convert now and I take the projections I create at Footballguys.com very seriously, but...
Sometimes you just have to follow your gut.
Below is a list of players, strategies and just random thoughts that are buzzing in my head. And as Joe and I have set out to do all year long, we want you to know what we know. So here goes...
Quarterbacks
Wait on your QB - Unless your league starts two QBs, I see no reason to expend a top pick to grab Manning, Palmer, Brady, Brees, or Bulger. McNabb will also likely be drafted too quickly for my tastes. I like a lot of the next tier of QBs (Young, Romo, Kitna, Roethlisberger, Cutler, Favre, etc) and expect to have one or more of these players on every team I draft this year.
Peyton Manning (ADP = QB1, 13th overall) - He is the consensus #1 QB and I don't disagree. My gut tells me he could have a HUGE year this season. The team added a true slot receiver (Anthony Gonzalez) in the draft and have limited options behind Joseph Addai at RB. Add to this a suspect defense, a tougher schedule, and every team bringing their A-game against the Superbowl champs, and I can see a scenario where Peyton is slinging it often to stay in games. I doubt I will draft Manning in many leagues (prefer to wait on QB usually), but it won't shock me to see him have even better fantasy stats than last year's numbers.
Carson Palmer (ADP = QB2, 29th overall) - This guy is an absolute stud. But I have some reservations about his draft position as the #2 QB off the board. He loses Chris Henry for the first half of the season and I don't see Tab Perry, Antonio Chatman, or Reggie McNeal filling that role (especially in the redzone). This puts a lot of pressure on WRs Chad Johnson and TJ Houshmandzadeh to score TDs. I don't doubt their talent levels at all (and love TJ this season), but against tough division defenses (play Baltimore and Pittsburgh twice) and the Patriots in week 4, the Bengals may find themselves kicking more FGs than usual.
Tom Brady (ADP = QB3, 34th overall) - I can't think of a player that benefitted more in the offseason than Tom Brady. He got three upgrades at receiver (Randy Moss, Donte Stallworth, and Wes Welker). He also gained a lot better defense (which should provide him a short field often). Brady hasn't had a deep threat like Moss and/or Stallworth and I suspect that these two players are going to completely open the field. One of Brady's many skills is his ability to rapidly go through his progressions and find the open receiver. My gut tells me that Wes Welker and Ben Watson are going to always look open to the very accurate arm of Brady. And if teams try to take away the underneath routes, then Moss and Stallworth will make them pay. I am already projecting close to a career year for Brady, but these numbers could be his floor. My gut tells me HC Belichick abandons the balanced offense and throws a lot more in 2007.
Donovan McNabb (ADP = QB6, 52nd overall) - I know his PPG numbers are awesome. I know he was the best QB before he got hurt last year. But my gut tells me he is a huge risk as the #5 QB off the board. I don't like his WRs at all. Reggie Brown is OK, but not a true #1. I am not sold on Kevin Curtis as a #2 at all. His TE is coming off a hernia and just tumbled to the ground (with an unrelated injury and no timetable for his return). Westbrook is fragile. And McNabb himself claims to only be 75-80% back from his surgically repaired right knee. At a minimum, I think it's safe to suggest McNabb won't be running much in 2007. Add it all up and McNabb is a player I am avoiding in 2007.
Vince Young (ADP = QB10, 75th overall) - Here is a situation that I hated projecting. Vince Young has a horrible team. His WRs are bad. His RBs are bad. Yet no matter how I slice it, I still think Vince Young will outproduce the projections I have for him. The team believes in him. He is one of those special guys that every player rallies around. I saw it last season. I saw it the year before as the Texas Longhorns went undefeated with Vince at QB. Vince Young is a winner. Forget the Wonderlic, his ability to read defenses, his awkward throwing motion, etc. His teams play much better because of him. So despite lackluster players at the skill positions, I see Courtney Roby, Eric Moulds, Roydell Williams, Bo Scaife and Ben Troupe somehow catching more passes than they should and vaulting Vince to elite levels again. I am only projecting Young to average 167 yards and a TD passing per game. If his legs yield the yards I suspect they will and he gets even modest help at WR and TE, he could be fantasy gold again this season. I am not betting against him.
Tony Romo (ADP = QB9, 74th overall) - I have a hunch that Romo significantly improves as a QB this season. He has great weapons at all of the skill positions (Owens, Glenn, Crayton and Hurd at WR, Julius Jones and Marion Barber at RB and Jason Witten and Anthony Fasano at TE). He is playing for a new deal and wants desperately to put the bobbled place-holder incident in his past. Terrell Owens and Jason Witten both seem in sync with Romo and I expect it to show up on the field each Sunday. I think his projections represent the low-side of things. It won't shock me to see him finish in the top 5 of QBs this season.
Jon Kitna (ADP = QB7, 68th overall) - Unfortunately the word is out on Kitna and his ADP continues to rise. But I still think he represents value this season. Drew Stanton was drafted to be the QB of the future, but his move to IR this season means Kitna has no danger of being benched. And with weapons Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson at WR (and a OC in Martz that prefers to throw the ball 65% of the time), I think Kitna could be HUGE in 2007. With Mike Furrey as the team's #2 WR, Kitna still managed over 4,200 yards passing last season. If Kitna improves his TD levels even modestly (he passed for just 21 TDs last season), Kitna could easily surpass his expectations.
Ben Roethlisberger (ADP = QB15, 98th overall) - Last year, Ben was hesitating a lot in the preseason. He seemed lost and unable to process information quickly. That translated into horrible QB play on the field. In hindsight, I don't think Ben was ready to take the field to start the season. Sure he passed all the mental tests, etc after his motorcycle accident and emergency appendectomy, but I know what I saw...and Ben wasn't all there when playing QB. A year removed from all of this madness, a developing WR in Santonio Holmes and a new offense that will utilize more 3 WR sets should open things up considerably for Ben this season. He should represent a steal at his current ADP.
Jay Cutler (ADP = QB13, 93rd overall) - He is going to be a great NFL QB. He already throws one of the best deep balls. He also has the IT factor. You can see how other players respond to him in the huddle, etc. They know he is going to be great. He exudes confidence. And he backs that up with a great arm and a sharp mind. Whether it happens this year or later, I am pretty sure Cutler will become one of the best QBs in the league. I suspect he will be asked to mostly manage games (with the team using Travis Henry a lot), but I think if needed Cutler will put up some good statistics at times. He has a great weapon in Javon Walker as well as two capable tight ends. I expect Cutler and Walker will hook up deep often this season. It remains to be seen whether Cutler can put up elite fantasy numbers (He may just efficiently run the team like Troy Aikman did for years with the Cowboys), but at his current ADP he offers plenty of upside.
Eli Manning (ADP = QB14, 94th overall) - In my mind, he is the anti-Cutler. He doesn't have the IT factor. He carries his head low when things go bad. He sulks. He is wildly inconsistent with his throws. He doesn't make his team better. Am I being overly harsh? Maybe. But I just don't think Eli Manning will ever be a good NFL QB. And now without Tiki Barber, he will be asked to carry more of the burden this season. And my gut tells me he is going to fall flat on his face. He is in no danger of getting benched so his ADP might be justified, but I think there are many better options this year at the position.
Brett Favre (ADP = QB16, 108th overall) - Yes he's old and throws more picks than he used to. But he still has a cannon for an arm and will need to use it as the Packers running game looks awful with the departure of Ahman Green. I also suspect that the Packers will be playing from behind in many contests leading to even more pass attempts. He has never finished below QB13 since starting in 1992. He is a huge bargain at his ADP.
Rex Grossman (ADP = QB22, 150th overall) - It's easy to bash Rex Grossman. He throws off his back foot a lot. He seems to throw the ball up for grabs without any regard to what the defense is showing him. He had two games last year where he scored negative fantasy points. But despite all of this, he remains the starting QB in Chicago. And this job is one that will likely yield great fantasy production as he plays with the short field often (due to the great Bears' defense). Rex is shining in camp while his competition (Brian Griese) has looked awful. I don't think Rex will ever be a great NFL quarterback, but I do think he will outplay his ADP this season by a wide margin. Sometimes it's all about opportunity and Rex is in a great situation.
Alex Smith (ADP = QB18, 117th overall) - He is developing right in front of our eyes. He ran a gimmicked offense in college, but has slowly picked up the pro game. And now he actually has a few weapons at the skill positions. My gut tells me we will see his best year yet as he targets Vernon Davis often and scrambles more in 2007. The 49ers aren't the laughing stock of their division any more and could be playoff bound with great play from Smith. Whether or not the 49ers actually get to the playoffs this season, I expect Smith to do his part.
JP Losman (ADP = QB19, 128th overall) - He came on strong last season, but still flies below the radar. My gut tells me he will play even better in 2007 as he and Lee Evans continue to hook up on big pass plays. He remains one of the best values in drafts and represents tremendous upside to where he is being drafted.
Running Backs
Joseph Addai (ADP = RB6, 6th overall) - It's easy to love his situation, but I still have an uneasy feeling about having Addai ranked so high. Personally I don't think he is all that skilled as a runner. In my opinion, he just plays in a great situation. Now that could be enough to warrant his ADP, but I prefer drafting players that I believe have elite talent. I also think the loss of Tarik Glenn could seriously impact the Colts' running game this season. Additionally I fear that the Colts run defense is as bad as it was last year meaning the team won't be looking to grind out the clock in the 4th quarter. They likely will be throwing as the game will be close.
Willie Parker (ADP = RB8, 8th overall) - I love his game and attitude. It's hard to predict upside for a RB being drafted in the first round, but my gut tells me this will be his best season as a pro. I don't see Najeh Davenport, Vernon Haynes, or Kevan Barlow seeing the field much except to spell Parker after he busts a 50-yard run. I think the spread offense benefits Parker immensely (opens up running lanes and dump offs) and I think his receiving skills are being downplayed by most people. In auction leagues, I am targetting Parker as my stud to build around.
Brian Westbrook (ADP = RB7, 7th overall) - I loved Westbrook last year when you could get him in the 2nd or 3rd round. I don't doubt his talent at all (and have been a big supporter of his skill set for years now), but I do doubt his durability. He always seems to be nicked. The Eagles added Tony Hunt in the NFL draft and still have Buckhalter who is a decent runner. Although Westbrook held up last year with the increased workload, I don't think that's the Eagles' strategy for this season. Their gameplan is to pass first and that involves keeping Westbrook healthy. I think they will involve Westbrook a lot in the passing game as always, but will spell him considerably as a runner to limit his injury risk. At his current ADP, I don't think I will have him on any of my teams this year. I think he has no upside and lots of downside.
Travis Henry (ADP = RB11, 11th overall) - If there was ever a player that was tailor-made for the Denver zone-blocking scheme, Travis Henry has to be that back. This scheme favors runners that can make one quick cut and are hard to tackle. Henry is exactly that runner. Provided he stays healthy, he should absolutely terrorize defenses this season. He has virtually no competition for carries (Mike Bell and Cecil Sapp appear to be after-thoughts) so I suspect he will log many carries. He also is decent as a receiver and may surprise people in that area. His ADP continues to increase, but he still should represent value this season.
Rudi Johnson (ADP = RB9, 9th overall) - He has averaged over 1,400 yards and 12 TDs in his last three seasons. Kenny Irons was drafted to spell him, but is now lost for the season with a torn ACL. The Bengals also relied heavily on WR Chris Henry in the redzone and will be without his services for the first half of the season. This could give Johnson even more opportunities to score TDs in close. I think his projections represent the low-side of things. He could explode for as many as 15 TDs and possibly add more receptions this year as well. For all of the RBs with question marks getting drafted ahead of him, my money is on Rudi Johnson to outplay a lot of them.
Shaun Alexander (ADP = RB5, 5th overall) - My gut tells me this guy doesn't live up to expectations. I can't point to any one thing, but I don't see the fire in his belly any more. He seems content to be a good (but not great back). The Seahawks don't have the dominant OL when Alexander put up 27 TDs and averaged 5.1 yards a carry. It's still a bit unclear whether his foot is 100% healed. He averaged just 3.6 yards per carry last season. Backup Maurice Morris is a capable backup and could cut into Alexander's carries. The Seahawks are not as dominant in their division and may need to pass more as they will likely not be running out the clock late in games. He is 30 years old (an age when many backs hit the wall). Again not one thing, but many factors that have me leaning to an off year for Alexander. At his current ADP, I will be avoiding him this season.
Laurence Maroney (ADP = RB12, 12th overall) - Like Joseph Addai, Maroney is an average back with a great opportunity in New England. It's easy to get excited about his situation because the Patriots running game has put up huge statistics the last few years (60 rushing TDs over the last 3 years). But these were teams that had no dominant receivers. In 2005 (with just Dillon as a legitimate back on their roster), the Patriots rushed the ball just 439 times. With the additions of Randy Moss, Daunte Stallworth, and Wes Welker, I think HC Bill Belicheck will throw a lot more this season. I could see signficantly fewer rushing attempts than the 499 the team logged in 2006. And I am not certain Maroney will be used to run out the clock in blowouts (I see Sammy Morris at least sharing this role to preserve Maroney for the playoffs). I think he is being drafted at the right price, but I won't be shocked to see Maroney fail to meet people's expectations this season.
Reggie Bush (ADP = RB10, 10th overall) - As a USC alumnus, I am enamored by Bush's talent. I might have watched every carry he had last season as I wanted him to see him succeed. After a slow start to his NFL career, I am convinced the light went on for Bush in the second half of the year. He stopped most of the juking behind the line and looked to hit the hole with more authority. His progress as a receiver also improved. He is a hard guy to project, because the Saints also have a very capable player in Deuce McAllister. I have a feeling though that I am short-changing Reggie's talent level. He is fully capable of taking over games. My gut tells me that is going to happen with a lot more frequency this year. It's hard to imagine the Saints getting him even more involved, but I actually think that will be the case this season.
Ronnie Brown (ADP = RB15, 19th overall) - He is clearly the feature back with virtually no competition for carries. But I am not sold that he will be productive this year. He battled weight issues in the offseason and I think the Dolphins are going to be awful this season. I see defenses loading up to stuff the run and force Trent Green/Cleo Lemon to beat them. Lorenzo Booker also could steal some carries if the team starts losing games early in the season.
Maurice Jones-Drew (ADP = RB14, 18th overall) - I won't be drafting Jones-Drew in any leagues this year. He caught lightning in a bottle last year (scored 10 TDs in his last 8 games) and probably should have been the rookie of the year. He has a unique skill set, but I don't see him approaching his TD numbers of 2006. He is in a full-blown RBBC situation with Fred Taylor and I don't think the coaching staff believes Jones-Drew can be a full-time back. So I see limited opportunities (12 to 18 touches a game) and history suggest you can't score 13-15 TDs with this kind of workload. His receptions will likely increase, but I suspect both his YPC (5.7 last year) and his total TDs (15) will all be down in 2007. I think his ADP represents his ceiling and his floor is much lower.
Clinton Portis (ADP = RB16, 20th overall) / Ladell Betts (ADP = RB34, 78th overall) - When Portis is healthy he is a beast on the field. He wasn't healthy last year and he has injury woes again this preseason. The fact that Ladell Betts is an above average player that excelled in this offense when Portis was out has my stomach churning. I see another year where these guys split carries making both risky picks. One will likely outplay his ADP in PPG stats, but personally I think the prudent play is to simply avoid both.
Cedric Benson (ADP = RB18, 26th overall) - I might have been the loudest critic to this guy's game last season. And frankly I still think he is a bit soft, alienates his teammates, and an injury risk. But with the departure of Thomas Jones, Benson has a great opportunity this year. The team is counting on him to be a workhorse in this offense. His current ADP is split by the believers and the non-believers. I think it's safe to say if Benson starts all 16 games, he will CRUSH this ADP. If he stays healthy, he has the opportunity to be a top 5-7 RB because the Bears will get him the carries. My gut is telling me he responds to the critics and has a break-through season.
Edgerrin James (ADP = RB17, 23rd overall) - Last year I knew James could never live up to his ADP of RB6. It was comical that others thought he could perform well running behind the Arizona OL and playing for a coach that loved to throw the ball. This year, Edge gets an improved line and a coach that is committed to the run. Now his ADP is ridiculous in the other direction and he represents all upside. Look to target James in round 3 of all of your drafts. He is among the best values in drafts this season at his ADP.
Brandon Jacobs (ADP = RB21, 40th overall) - Watching this guy run, I am a believer. He is BIG and STRONG and FAST. I hear all the critics hate his running style (too upright) and contend that he can't be an every down back with that style. The critics might be right. Backs like this do take a lot of punishment. But all I can judge is what I see. And I see a beast that I know defenses are not going to enjoy tackling. I can't even fathom facing this guy in the fourth quarter after a game of his punishing running. My gut tells me Brandon Jacobs is indeed special and doesn't fit the "protypical mold". I think he explodes onto the scene and we all wonder why we didn't take a chance on him this year. His low-side is a bunch of TDs. His upside is a lot of Tiki's yards and a bunch of TDs. Get this guy on your team. At his current ADP, he is all upside.
Carnell Williams (ADP = RB22, 42nd overall) - At his current ADP, most would think he represents a steal. With Alstott now on the IR, Caddy should even get the goal line looks. But my gut tells me this "herniated disk" situation is serious business. I understand that this condition did not prevent him from playing last year, but his 3.5 ypc and only 1 TD left a lot to be desired. I think this offense is going to be very bad. I envision Tampa Bay abandoning the running game often as they attempt to play catch up in many contests. Let someone else take this player. He might live up to his low-ADP, but I don't see big numbers regardless.
Adrian Peterson (ADP = RB25, 48th overall) - He is going to be a special player in this league. The question is when. His ADP suggests that it's going to take a bit of the season before he supplants Chester Taylor. That seems logical based on Taylor's 2006 success. And my projections represent that likely scenario. But my gut says that Peterson shows he is the better back in the preseason and is starting no later than week 3. And if that is the case, then he is grossly under-valued as he will likely produce if he gets the touches.
Jamal Lewis (ADP = RB29, 55th overall) - Every year, we get the same camp story that Jamal Lewis is back and running with authority. And every year he disappoints with a dismal ypc (3.4 in 2005 and 3.6 in 2006). I am not taking the bait this year. Jamal Lewis is at least a step slow to the hole and will fail running behind an even worse line in Cleveland in 2007. I expect him to start the season, but eventually get replaced when he fails to produce. He is not a player I expect to be on any of my teams this year.
Marion Barber (ADP = RB24, 46th overall) and Julius Jones (ADP = RB30, 63rd overall) - This is one of the head-scratching situations. From my perspective, Marion Barber is clearly the better running back. He runs with authority, has great hands, and has a nose for the goal line. Yet two different coaching staffs refuse to bench Julius Jones. The ADPs are all whacked here. If Jones remains the starter, he is a steal at the levels he is being drafted at. Barber would also smash his ADP if he was named the starter. My gut tells me something gives this season and that the current roles don't last all year. I think talent should win out which points to Barber getting more looks. Either way though this is a situation worth watching through the entire preseason because one of these ADPs is likely way wrong.
De'shaun Foster (ADP = RB39, 102nd overall) and DeAngelo Williams (ADP = RB27, 51st overall) - The fantasy community has spoken. We all want to see more Williams. But sometimes coaches see things differently. Foster is again atop the running back position and will likely stay there until he goes down with injury (like he always does). As much as I love the homerun threat that Williams brings, I am convinced that HC John Fox belives Foster is the more complete player. This looks to be fullblown RBBC again and the player to grab will be Foster (with the better ADP and likely more carries).
Tatum Bell (ADP = RB32, 73rd overall) and Kevin Jones (ADP = RB37, 90th overall) - People want to believe Kevin Jones will be good to go to start the season, but I don't think that's going to be the case. And I bet the Lions actually put Jones on the PUP list meaning he will miss 6 games and likely take another 2-3 weeks to be in football shape. Enter Tatum Bell who plays great for his first few carries and wears down as the game goes on. But in Detroit where Martz prefers to throw way more than he runs, Bell could be in a perfect situation. He is a homerun threat everytime he touches the ball and defenses are going to be a lot more worried about Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson with Martz calling the plays. So it doesn't take much imagination to see Tatum being successful with draw plays, some dumps in the flat and a few standard runs. So even when Kevin Jones is ready to play again for the Lions, Tatum might have already locked down the starting job. I think a sound drafting strategy this season involves drafting quality receivers in rounds 2 and 3 with the plan of nabbing Tatum Bell as your RB2 later. If it works as planned, you could end up with decent RB2 for pennies on the dollar.
