The Profit - Week 13

Posted 11/28 by Michael Brown, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

Power Rankings

New England Patriots 11-0 (1)
Dallas Cowboys 10-1 (2)
Indianapolis Colts 9-2 (3)
Green Bay Packers 10-1 (4)
Pittsburgh Steelers 8-3 (5)
Jacksonville Jaguars 8-3 (6)
Tampa Bay Bucs 7-4 (7)
San Diego Chargers 6-5 (10)
Cleveland Browns 7-4 (11)
Seattle Seahawks 7-4 (12)
New York Giants 7-4 (8) -3
Denver Broncos 5-6 (13)
Tennessee Titans 6-5 (9) -4
Detroit Lions 6-5 (14)
New Orleans Saints 5-6 (17)
Chicago Bears 5-6 (18)
Philadelphia Eagles 5-6 (22) +5
Washington Redskins 5-6 (15) -3
Minnesota Vikings 5-6 (24) +5
Arizona Cardinals 5-6 (16) -4
Houston Texans 5-6 (23)
Baltimore Ravens 4-7 (19) -3
Kansas City Chiefs 4-7 (20) -3
Carolina Panthers 4-7 (21) -3
Buffalo Bills 5-6 (25)
Cincinnati Bengals 4-7 (27)
New York Jets 2-9 (26)
Oakland Raiders 3-8 (28)
San Francisco 49ers 3-8 (31)
Atlanta Falcons 3-8 (29)
Saint Louis Rams 2-9 (30)
Miami Dolphins 0-11 (32)

Let's get to the picks!

DALLAS (-7) vs. GREEN BAY

The most-anticipated game since Pats/Colts will happen this Thursday night, and I've got to be honest here - I have no idea what to expect. The teams match up kind of strangely. On the one hand, Dallas appears to be more talented than Green Bay at nearly every spot on the field…but then when you start thinking about it more and more, you start convincing yourself that the Packers are extremely close in the areas of deficiency, and they've got the upper hand in several key categories of their own. But then you factor in that the Cowboys are at home and it gives the edge back to them. But then you remember that Tony Romo is going to be too preoccupied with large breasts this week to concentrate on the task at hand (rumor has it that Romo enjoyed Thanksgiving dinner with Jessica Simpson, so I implied that he'll be preoccupied with breasts - because both turkeys and pop singers…well I don't want to explain it all, since that would ruin an awesome joke). Basically what it comes down to for me is this - the teams are pretty well matched with one another, and you can't simply discount the Favre factor and how incredibly well he's playing. So I'm going to look at this line and say that seven points in either direction is a few too many. It's entirely possible that the game will be decided by more than seven one way or the other. And it's probably going to be a case of two or three plays determining the outcome of this game. But it's too many points to give up in either direction, and I'll bet on it being closer than that. PICK: Packers

CAROLINA (-3) vs. SAN FRANCISCO

Now here's a game everyone can really get into. Think about it - where else are you going to find some of the top amateur players in the world all in one place? You see what I did there? I suggested that the players on the Panthers and Niners (who are ALL professionals, by the way) are actually AMATEURS! Get it? Because they're so bad! PICK: Niners

INDIANAPOLIS (-7) vs. JACKSONVILLE

There have been far too many cases in recent seasons of the Jaguars playing extremely well against the Colts or the Colts struggling against Jacksonville or the Jags just winning outright for me to lay a touchdown against them. As I mentioned last week, Jacksonville doesn't have too many "name" guys that are going to scare anyone into thinking they're any good. Which works well for us. We don't want everyone knowing how good they are. Let everyone keep thinking they stink. Unfortunately, the proverbial cat will be out of the bag if they end up beating the Colts, which is certainly very possible. The Jaguars are a better team than they've been in years, and the Colts are an extremely beatable bunch right now due to being really hit hard by injuries. Maybe the Jaguars win the game outright, maybe not. But they do keep it closer than a touchdown. PICK: Jaguars

MIAMI (Pk) vs. NEW YORK JETS

Please do not allow yourself to be fooled by last week's performance against the Pittsburgh Steelers. The rain and field conditions had as much to do with holding the Steelers scoreless as anything else. And now that the Dolphins are down several running backs, they're even further behind than where they'd like to be at this point. Now on the other hand, they likely know that if they don't win this week, it's probably all over for 2007. That's right, they'll be officially eliminated from playoff contention. Oh, and lose all of their games the rest of the way too. So there's that motivation. The thing I've learned about motivation though? It means nothing if you have no talent. PICK: Jets

MINNESOTA (-3) vs. DETROIT

I'm all over the map with the Vikings. When I expect them to rise up and finally break through and show me something, they lay an egg and play like garbage. When I assume they'll continue playing like garbage, they beat the likes of the Chargers and Giants rather easily. With the return of Adrian Peterson and the continued suckiness of the Detroit Lions, it would stand to reason that this would be one of those games that Minnesota should step forward and claim as their own. So I'll experiment here a little bit and see if my own idiocy can actually alter the outcome of games. PICK: Lions

NEW ORLEANS (-3) vs. TAMPA BAY

Shocking as this may sound, I'm still not quite convinced that the Saints are ready to be a playoff contender. I know, I said it'd be shocking. Maybe it has something to do with the fact that they are more of a two-face than Heidi Klum. (Please spare me the commentary by the way…the truth is, no one goes from a 10 to a 6 and back again in Celebrityville any faster than she does.) The Bucs will have to deal with Jeff Garcia's back injury being an issue all week and it certainly could affect him some come Sunday. But even so, the Bucs seem to always find a way to get it done. And with the ability to put the division title pretty much out of reach on Sunday, I think they'll find a way once again. PICK: Bucs

PHILADELPHIA (-3) vs. SEATTLE

Well look at that - the Eagles nearly take down the mighty Patriots, and they get a nice bit of respect from Vegas as home favorites against a likely division champ (and perhaps more importantly, they get a sizable bump up the power rankings from yours truly). It really is amazing how much better this team is when Donovan McNabb is not in the lineup for them. I've said this for years, and it appears only now that people are starting to get on board with it. Of course, that could be due to the fact that I was completely wrong for years, but still - it's obvious at this point that A.J. Feeley is a huge improvement from McNabb for RIGHT NOW. And it's just as obvious that the Eagles defensive schemes looked a lot like the ones that had every team in the league running for cover just a few years ago. With Seattle's running game looking worse than the reviews of Lions For Lambs, it's gonna be tough to chuck it around the yard (especially when you consider that D.J. Hackett is also banged-up). I like Philly to win a tough, hard-fought game and keep themselves alive - albeit for a little while - in the playoff chase. PICK: Eagles

PITTSBURGH (-7) vs. CINCINNATI

No way the Steelers come up pathetic for a third week in a row - they're simply too talented. Factor in that the line on this is kept relatively low by the fact that Pittsburgh lost to the Jets and squeezed by Miami while the Bengals just ripped the Titans, and you can see why I love the Steelers here. PICK: Steelers

SAINT LOUIS (Off) vs. ATLANTA

Anyone who watches this game should be arrested for the crime of assault against their eyes. PICK: Rams

TENNESSEE (-4) vs. HOUSTON

The Titans are spiraling out of control. Vince Young has looked putrid, the defense can't stop anybody, the running game has been kind of lethargic, and they're quickly falling out of the playoff race and are THIS game away from dropping into the basement of the AFC South. As if that isn't bad enough, Mike Williams is arguably the best receiver on the team - and he's about as valuable to a football team as slimming pants are to Jessica Biel's posterior. The Texans are showing that they are a wildly different football team when Andre Johnson is on the field. He's not just a difference-maker in what HE does; he affects everything around him, and enables everyone else a little bit more room to do their thing as well. He takes pressure off the QB, everything. And with the way the game went the last time these teams hooked up (a 38-36 victory by the Titans, who were cruising at the time - while Houston was without both Johnson and starting QB Matt Schaub…a game that also featured eight Rob Bironas field goals) and I think it's safe to say that Tennessee has been extremely overrated based on their early-season successes. And as much as Tennessee was overrated, that's about how much the Texans were underrated. This Houston team is making some positive strides as we head towards the end of the season, a good sign for a team that'll be looking to make its mark on the league in 2008. PICK: Texans

WASHINGTON (-5.5) vs. BUFFALO

Anything that happens in this game is going to be trivial in comparison to what happened off the field this week. Incidentally, the Redskins aren't the only team in this game that had to deal with an overwhelming hardship this year, as Buffalo had to play a game a week after TE Kevin Everett's injury. How the Redskins respond and play this contest is fairly meaningless. They could come out fired up and more focused than ever and perform a fitting tribute to their fallen teammate. Or, completely understandably, they could come out looking lost and flustered and get beaten soundly. Either scenario is entirely plausible, and completely understandable. We have no way of knowing how this team, or any other team in this situation, would respond. All we can do is give our best guess. My guess is that the Redskins come together and play very well. PICK: Redskins

NEW ENGLAND (-20.5) at BALTIMORE

Yes, I had that little system early in the season which consisted of A) Look at the matchup. B) Pick the Patriots. But this is still out of hand. The Ravens stink, and everyone knows it. The Patriots are historically good, and everyone knows that too. But this is too many to lay on the road. I have little doubt the Pats should cover it and win by 35, but I can't bet on it. And therein lies the rub. PICK: Ravens

Best Bets

ARIZONA (-1.5) vs. CLEVELAND

So let's see, Kurt Warner (who once played quarterback for one of the greatest offensive teams of all-time) puts up a CAREER-HIGH 484 yards a week ago…Neil Rackers lines up for a 32 yard field goal in overtime…they're playing one of the worst teams we've seen in years…then they LOSE on a fumble in their own end zone…annnnnnnnd they lose. So now they're favored against a likely playoff team from the AFC. So um, am I reading this right or did I take those crazy pills again? And why are there purple bumblebees smacking me in the ears with tiny Christmas ornaments? PICK: Browns

DENVER (-3) at OAKLAND

There's almost no way the Raiders can possibly win back to back games against divisional opponents. What did they lose, like 917 games in a row to the AFC West? And now they're going to win two in a row? I think not. Someone this horrible is not going to strike gold twice in a row. What are they, Nick Lachey? PICK: Broncos

NEW YORK GIANTS (-1.5) at CHICAGO

To quote Chris Griffin…"HUUUUHHHHWWWWHHHHAAAAA?????!?!?!?!?!" PICK: Bears

SAN DIEGO (-4.5) at KANSAS CITY

The Chiefs are a lot better at home than they are on the road, especially during the later months of the year. But the Chargers already lost to this team once this year, and I don't see it happening again (especially considering the first one likely should have never happened). One of these teams is headed for a division title, and the other is headed for a battle with the Raiders to stay out of last place. Guess which way this one's gonna go. PICK: Chargers

PICK OF THE WEEK: Cleveland Browns

Last Week

OVERALL: 8-8 (50%)
BEST BETS: 3-1 (75%)
PICK OF WEEK: 0-1

Season Totals

OVERALL: 81-85-10 (49%)
BEST BETS: 23-25-2 (48%)
PICK OF WEEK: 7-5 (58%)

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