Opportunity Breeds SuccessPosted 7/18 by Mike Brown, Exclusive to Footballguys.comThe name of the game in any fantasy setup is opportunity. Often times, a player will be drafted based on sheer physical ability or past performance. While these factors obviously shouldn't be discounted, what is of at least equal importance is the player's opportunity. I remember back to my first fantasy draft. We were all novices, and as such did not really know how to go about preparing for a league. Name recognition at the time meant everything to us, so players such as Troy Aikman were first round picks. Don't get me wrong -- Aikman was one of the great quarterbacks of his generation. But he never had a big enough season to warrant a first round fantasy draft choice. The reason? He just didn't have the opportunity to put up those kinds of numbers. Players such as Aikman get credit as a great player and rightfully so, but he was by no means a fantasy stud at any point in his career. The great Dallas teams he played for were a running unit. Sure, Aikman got his yards and touchdowns here and there, but more often than not, he would finish the season with a high passer rating but low yardage and touchdown totals. This is something you must keep in mind when preparing for a fantasy draft. Great "real life" player does not always translate to great "fantasy" player. Take, for example, the situation of Jon Kitna last season. I don't think many would mistake Kitna for a superstar QB in real life (even those who were high on his fantasy prospects, ahem). The two previous seasons, he was the #39 and #71 QB in fantasy football as Carson Palmer's backup. Yet there he was in 2007 throwing for 4,200 yards and 21 touchdowns by the end of the year. Why all the big numbers? Well, the Lions brought Mike Martz aboard as the offensive coordinator. In addition to being a brilliant innovator on the offensive side of the football, Martz’s teams have always been known for throwing the football – a lot. It didn't matter that Kitna didn't play "well" in real life (22 interceptions). Simply by compiling huge passing totals, he was able to finish as a starting-caliber QB. A simple thing like opportunity created the #6 quarterback in fantasy football last season! Every year, there are examples of players who produce strictly on the basis of opportunity. Let's grab one that I like to bring up this time each year. Did you know that Charlie Batch once had a stretch in 2001 during which his game-by-game yardage totals were: 345, 338, 239, 74 (injured during the game), 239, and 436? Wow! I mean…this is Charlie Batch we're talking about! Well, the Lions may not have had a foolproof system in place, but Batch was forced to throw the ball an average of 40 times per game due to the fact that Detroit was losing by so much. The team may have been awful, but fantasy owners cannot complain about those kinds of stats, no matter what it took to compile them. Think back to the past few years in the NFL. Fantasy owners rode the successes of players such as Kitna, Drew Brees, Willie Parker, Maurice Morris; the list goes on and on. And many of these players likely went undrafted the year they had their "breakout" seasons. That’s not to say these players aren't also supremely talented. It’s just that they never would've been able to showcase that talent had they not gotten on the field in the first place. This past season, players such as Ladell Betts, Maurice Jones-Drew, Mike Furrey, and Marques Colston transformed themselves from afterthoughts to key components of many a championship fantasy team merely because they were given an opportunity. A player does not even have to be supremely talented (Nick Goings, anyone) to become a fantasy star. For example, if a guy wins the #1 WR spot, then he's likely in for a near 1,000-yard season. Merely on the basis of compiling stats, it's difficult to NOT gain 1,000 yards as a #1 receiver. That isn't to say a player will perform ONLY because of opportunity. After all, Ashley Lelie was all but handed the starting job in Denver and San Francisco the past few years but could never hang on. Still, the astute fantasy owner can pick and choose from the best situations each season to see where the players with the most opportunity will emerge. You want to stay away from running backs that might have the opportunity but a poor offensive line (Vernand Morency comes to mind). You'll want to stay away from quarterbacks and wide receivers that have opportunity but play for conservative teams (Michael Jenkins and Brandon Jones). One final crucial point is to keep in mind the injury factor. NFL teams are set up now in such a way that if the #1 guy at a particular position were to go down with an injury, the backup can make as seamless a transition as possible. Obviously, there is no way anyone can replace Peyton Manning or Steven Jackson. These are special players with special talents where you cannot just rotate someone in there and expect them to duplicate that same success. But there are still many spots out there in which the team has proven to be set up to handle an injury and have the backup immediately step in and produce. Some situations like this you should keep an eye on include:
This is to take nothing away from Carson Palmer, Donald Driver, et al. It's
just that if the starter at one of these positions were to be injured, his backup
would likely step into a prime, proven situation in which he could immediately
produce. The systems are already in place for him to succeed, and the commitment
of the team and the philosophy of the coaching staff would likely not change
regardless of what player they had to put in there. To clarify, the Broncos
will always want to run the ball. The Packers will always want to throw the
ball. Thus, the players who step into these situations will be primed to succeed
if not in "real" football, then at least they will succeed statistically
for fantasy football because of the opportunity. The players I listed
above are some of the more obvious choices, but keep in mind that many a fantasy
title is won or lost with waiver-wire gems. Don't discount picking up a player
simply because you never heard of him before August. That no-name could very
well turn out to be the player that puts your team over the top. Don't be worried
about looking stupid if a pickup doesn't pan out. Hey, I lost my league championship
in one league to a guy who started Ron Dayne in Week 16. Seriously, don’t
discount ANYONE. All he needs is an opportunity. |
