Reading the Defense Offseason Report

  Posted 7/27 by Jene Bramel, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

Reading the Defense is excited to be back for its second season at Footballguys.com. For those of you new to the column, RTD focuses on how defensive schemes affect the value of individual defensive players based on my belief that understanding defensive play is critical to accurately projecting the fantasy value of an IDP. While this column will be written with IDP owners in mind, there should be something of value for all football fans each week. Last season, we broke down the multiple-front defense of the Baltimore Ravens, discussed the changing role of safeties and examined many of the league's up-and-coming players in detail. This season is already providing plenty of topics for discussion. The proliferation of the 3-4 and multiple front defenses around the league, an increasing reliance on down and distance specialists and the continuing influx of rookies with positional versatility are issues already on the docket for 2007.

While we'll be watching those developments closely during camp and the early weeks of the regular season, let's kick off our 2007 season with a look back at a very busy offseason. Seven teams changed head coaches and others made significant changes to their defensive coaching staffs. A number of big name defensive players changed teams in free agency and find themselves in new schemes and roles. There's a lot to review. Grab your playbooks and let's hit the classroom.

Coaching and Scheme Changes

Denver Broncos

The Broncos fired Larry Coyer after the team collapsed down the stretch and missed the playoffs after a 7-2 start in 2006. Replacing Coyer is Jim Bates, who has had coached successful defenses in Green Bay, Miami and Dallas in his career. Bates wasted no time in acquiring five new bodies for the line to better fit his defensive philosophy. Bates likes his defensive ends to align a hair further outside the offensive tackle than other coordinators, giving them a different angle to attack the pocket. The Broncos moved up in the draft to grab Jarvis Moss, a speedy edge rusher who could fill the Charles Haley, Jason Taylor type role in this defense. Moss' long term IDP value will depend on whether he can hold up as an every down player, but Bates has made the most of similar talent in the past. Bates also targeted big, space-eating defensive tackles to protect the primary playmaker in his scheme, the MLB. 2006 SLB D.J. Williams steps into the primo MLB role this year after the Broncos released long time MLB Al Wilson. Williams, after a promising rookie season on the weak side in 2004, became the odd man out in the Bronco stud LB unit, sitting on most nickel downs in 2005 and 2006. But quick and aggressive players thrive in Bates' defenses and Williams looks to be a perfect fit. Zach Thomas and Nick Barnett have had big statistical seasons in this defense and Williams will be given similar opportunity. He should be available as a LB2 or LB3 in redraft leagues but will produce much better than that. In the secondary, Champ Bailey and Dre' Bly will play a lot of man coverage. Both should stay close to their traditional statistical averages, but Bailey may struggle to make as many tackles as he did in Coyer's frequent Cover-2 packages.

Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins retained Dom Capers as defensive coordinator under new head coach Cam Cameron. There may be nothing to see here, but it's worth noting that Capers favors a more traditional 3-4 approach than the one Nick Saban used in 2005 and 2006. Saban's scheme had a number of one-gap elements along the front seven and highlighted the talents of Jason Taylor, Zach Thomas and Vonnie Holliday as playmakers. As the Dolphins enter camp, there has been no definitive word in the Miami media about which way Capers may scheme this season. On the personnel side, there seem to be mixed messages. The Dolphins re-signed Holliday after Saban left, suggesting that the team would still align in many of the one-gap fronts that allowed Holliday to align as a disruptive three-technique tackle and would allow Matt Roth to attack on the closed end. The Dolphins then spent big free agent dollars on Joey Porter, who would seemingly be a better fit as a 3-4 WOLB than a 4-3 SLB. Observers on the Dolphin fan message boards suggest that the defensive alignment during OTAs looked much like that of last season. Still, there's at least some small chance that things change at some point in 2007, especially if there's a critical injury among the front seven. Capers traditional 3-4 scheme would make Jason Taylor a LB, seriously hurt the value of Matt Roth and Vonnie Holliday, and could blunt some of Zach Thomas' value as an ILB. Dynasty leaguers should keep that potential tucked away and be ready to adjust if necessary.

Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers appeared to be headed for a big change in defensive philosophy after Mike Tomlin was hired to replace the departing Bill Cowher. Tomlin is one of many second generation protégés of Tony Dungy and Monte Kiffin currently spreading the philosophies of the Tampa-2 around the league. Not long after his hiring, however, Tomlin committed to current defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau and pledged to retain many of the 3-4 zone blitz concepts the Steelers have employed since the 1990s. Tomlin did hold back some of his Tampa-2 concepts in Minnesota last year, often opting for a more aggressive 4-3 look with linebacker blitzes and man coverage. End of story, right? The long history of the Pittsburgh 3-4 would continue. Not so fast. On draft day, the Steelers passed over a number of potential 3-4 OLB in the first round to select Lawrence Timmons, who looks like a better 4-3 OLB to many observers. Then they grabbed Lamarr Woodley in the second round, who could succeed as either a 3-4 OLB or 4-3 open side end. Both selections scream positional versatility, with Timmons and Woodley potentially fitting in either the 3-4 or Tampa-2. Add in Tomlin's strong interest in rehabilitating cornerback Ike Taylor, who has the size and ball skills most Tampa-2 coaches desire, and you have to wonder if the writing is on the wall for the 3-4. It wouldn't be too difficult to marry the 3-4 zone blitz and Cover-2/Tampa-2 concepts, especially for two top defensive minds, and LeBeau already has a history of using a lot of Cover-2 behind his zone blitz. But LeBeau is about to turn 70 years old and Tomlin will almost certainly want his personal stamp on the defense. This situation is definitely worth watching closely over the next 12 months. If the Steelers begin implementing the Tampa-2 at some point and Lawrence Timmons is slotted at WLB, there's very nice potential value to be had for IDP owners. There may also be big changes in value for the players who end up playing the three-technique tackle, open end, MLB and corner positions. Dynasty leaguers need to be ready to move if the Steelers begin looking at a different brand of Steel Curtain.

San Diego Chargers

The Chargers hired Ted Cottrell to replace the departed Wade Phillips at defensive coordinator. Those who remember Cottrell's inconsistent stints with Minnesota and the New York Jets in recent seasons might be cringing at the thought of him getting his hands on the playbook of the most explosive front seven in the league. Cottrell, however, has plenty of experience with the 3-4 defense, and the more aggressive Phillips variant in particular, during his years in Buffalo. While Cottrell was vilified for using a "bend but don't break" read-and-react 3-4 philosophy in New York, he is likely to retain many of the same aggressive fronts the Chargers employed under Phillips last season. It's likely not much will change in San Diego, but if it does, it won't be good news for owners of Charger IDPs.

Arizona Cardinals

When new head coach and former Steelers offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt retained Clancy Pendergast as his defensive coordinator, it was widely assumed that the Cardinals were looking for continuity on defense. Whisenhunt then surprised league observers by announcing that he was interested in installing some of the 3-4 zone blitz concepts he had faced in practice every week while in Pittsburgh. Now, after the team spent nearly every offseason snap in the 3-4, what was originally thought likely only to be a changeup front for opposing offenses is looking more and more likely to be the Cards' base defensive system. Neither the team nor local beat writers and observers have provided anything that looks like an official depth chart yet, but it appears that Bert Berry will assume the primary rush role at ROLB with Chike Okeafor taking the strong side OLB position. Unless the Cardinals supply a 3-4 base defensive depth chart to the league in training camp, both players could slide into the "Bryan Thomas" loophole this season and have added value playing as linebackers while classified as linemen. It's less clear what will happen inside, but the smart money would be on Karlos Dansby holding a WILB role with some third down pass rush responsibilities. His value should improve while SILB Gerald Hayes remains in the LB2-3 tier. Dansby has the higher upside, while Hayes has the higher floor. Since the Steeler 3-4 of Dick LeBeau is often more of a read-and-react, two gap scheme along the front seven, there won't be as much upside as the more aggressive Phillips scheme. The Cardinals will be one of many teams RTD will follow closely in the early weeks of this season.

Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons will stay in a 4-3 base defense under new head coach Bobby Petrino and defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer. Zimmer comes over in a lateral move from Dallas, where he set his preference for the 4-3 aside in favor of the 3-4 defense Bill Parcells wanted to run. Zimmer's preferred defensive philosophy and schemes rely on speed and aggressive play at all three levels. He wants pressure from the front four, sideline-to-sideline range at linebacker and often calls for man coverage from his cornerbacks. The major beneficiary of the coaching change looked to be Demorrio Williams, who was slated to move into a full time role at WLB after the release of Ed Hartwell this offseason. Dexter Coakley, a slight but speedy OLB, thrived on those Cowboy teams on the field and in the boxscore and Williams has the skill set to better Coakley numbers. Unfortunately, Williams tore a pectoral muscle in late April lifting weights. He won't be available until just before the regular season begins and may be forced to start the season on the PUP list, which would cost him a minimum of six games. Further clouding the issue is rookie Stephen Nicholas, who fits the mold of a Zimmer WLB nicely. If Nicholas proves NFL ready in training camp, Williams, who will be a RFA after the 2007 season, may find himself on the outside looking in for a third consecutive season. The scheme should also highlight the talents of DE John Abraham (if he can stay healthy), MLB Keith Brooking and CB DeAngelo Hall. All should remain steady IDP options. Those in CB specific leagues may want to consider rookie CB Chris Houston, who should be targeted frequently enough in the man coverage schemes to overcome his shaky run support skills.

Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys hired Wade Phillips to take over at head coach after the retirement of Bill Parcells. Both coaches use a 3-4 base defensive front but the details and implementation are very different. The 3-4 under Parcells was a conservative, read-and-react defense, and rarely sent more than four pass rushers. Phillips prefers a much more aggressive approach. In many ways, his playbook resembles an attacking 4-3 scheme, often giving his players penetrating, one gap responsibility along the front seven. Ordinarily, that would be good news for the RILB, who often performs well in Phillips' schemes. Neither Bradie James nor Akin Ayodele may have a regular role in the nickel package, though, which would keep either player from producing big numbers. The big winners with the philosophical change will be OLB Demarcus Ware and SS Roy Williams. Ware will be likely be used almost exclusively at ROLB and, like Shawne Merriman in San Diego, will rush on every passing down. Ware will have stud value in sack heavy leagues and should also be a safe option in neutral leagues. Williams will benefit from being aligned in-the-box in run support on most downs, including many nickel snaps where he'll be used as an extra linebacker. It is also worth keeping an eye on Chris Canty and Marcus Spears in the early weeks of the regular season. Many of Phillips' ends (Bruce Smith, Phil Hansen, Luis Castillo) have had above-average IDP value for 3-4 ends.

Minnesota Vikings

Minnesota lost Mike Tomlin to the Steelers after just one season as the Vikings' defensive coordinator. Replacing him will be Leslie Frazier, who had an inconsistent showing as Marvin Lewis' first defensive coordinator in Cincinnati before becoming an assistant under Tony Dungy in 2005. While Tomlin and Frazier trained under Tony Dungy, both prefer a more aggressive style. Tomlin mixed in plenty of non-Tampa-2 calls in 2006 and used his linebackers to blitz more frequently than is commonly seen in the Dungy/Kiffin scheme. Frazier will also use a fair amount of Tampa-2 in 2007, but like many of the second generation Tampa-2 coaches (Tomlin, Lovie Smith, Perry Fewell), Frazier won't be afraid to mix in some more aggressive play calling. Expect to see some 46 fronts, which Frazier learned while playing under Buddy Ryan in Philadelphia, and more frequent blitzing than the four man pass rush relied upon in the Tampa-2. That should keep E.J. Henderson's value high at MLB while still providing Chad Greenway the usual benefits of the WLB in the Tampa-2. Keep an eye on Erasmus James, whose rehab from last year's severe knee injury appears to be on schedule. Like a number of others before him, he could breakout after a couple of seasons of adjusting to the NFL. The mixture of Tampa-2 and 46 schemes should allow him the freedom to pressure the pocket consistently.

New York Giants

The Giants hired Steve Spagnuolo away from division rival Philadelphia this offseason to take over at defensive coordinator. Spagnuolo will employ many of the same aggressive concepts his former boss Jim Johnson has become known for with the Eagles. If Spagnuolo can get his current group of corners to play well in man coverage, this defense could make a lot of big plays. In line for a possible bump in production could be new SLB Mathias Kiwanuka and SS Gibril Wilson. While the SLB hasn't carried much value in Philadelphia, Kiwanuka has the ability to generate Marcus Washington-like 60 solo tackle, high sack production. Be cautious if you choose to target Kiwanuka in tackle heavy leagues, however, as there's no guarantee that DEs Michael Strahan and Justin Tuck will be healthy enough to keep Kiwanuka in his new position. If the Giants can't find enough healthy ends, Kiwanuka may be shifted back to DE. Wilson, already an above-average big play threat at safety, could find himself blitzing even more frequently in a scheme that isn't afraid to rush six and seven defenders. Eagle safeties combined for nine sacks over the past two seasons; Wilson should be a safe bet to return to the sack value he had in 2004 and 2005.

San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers added Greg Manusky as their new defensive coordinator under assistant head coach Mike Singletary. Manusky served as the Chargers' linebacker coach last season under then San Diego defensive coordinator Wade Phillips. Manusky's vision should mesh well with head coach Mike Nolan, who learned much of his defensive playbook from Phillips while they were together on the Denver coaching staff in the 1990s. San Francisco will transition back to Nolan's preferred 3-4 scheme after playing mostly 4-3 last year due to worries that their personnel wouldn't stand up against the run. Nolan addressed those concerns this offseason by adding NT Aubrayo Franklin, ILB Patrick Willis and SS Michael Lewis. The 49ers are also hoping that OLBs Manny Lawson and Tully Banta-Cain will bring pressure from the edge and allow LB Brandon Moore to stay inside and help stuff the run. While many IDP owners will be concerned about Willis landing in a 3-4 scheme after what happened to Jonathan Vilma's in 2006, a closer look at the stats of the RILBs (where Willis will play) should be reassuring. In each of the most recent nine "LB seasons" in the Phillips aggressive 3-4 scheme Nolan favors, the RILB has made at least 99 solo tackles. It remains to be seen if Willis can be the caliber player that Donnie Edwards, Keith Brooking or Ray Lewis have been, but the opportunity for big production is there. It's also worth keeping an eye on the defensive ends. As noted in the Dallas discussion, many of the valuable 3-4 ends in recent memory have come from this version of the 3-4 front.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Those of you who missed the offseason Audible podcasts missed a lot. In addition to kicking off what we hope will be a full and productive season of IDP podcasts, Sigmund Bloom and Cecil Lammey corralled a huge number of beat writers and respected team observers from around the league. In one such interview with the Pewter Report's Jim Flynn, Bloom learned a potential key piece of scheme information that has still not been reported by any of the usual major media or warehouse outlets. Flynn shared that the Buccaneers were working on installing some 3-4 concepts during the team's OTAs. Given that defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin is considered by many to be the primary architect of the Tampa-2 variation of the Cover-2 coverage scheme, that pearl is potentially major news. It's questionable whether the Bucs have the personnel to pull this off, but it may have major future implications for first round draft pick Gaines Adams, who would move to OLB in a 3-4 front, and for the entire linebacker unit. Flynn noted that Quincy Black was getting snaps as the first team ILB with Barrett Ruud and seemed to think that the Bucs might use Cato June or Derrick Brooks on the outside on some occasions. Until we hear or see otherwise during training camp, expect the Bucs to use the 3-4 as a rare change of pace front. But it's absolutely worth keeping your eyes and ears open for signs that a change is in the works for future seasons, especially if you are a dynasty owner.

VI-IDPs With New Teams

Cato June

Those expecting Cato June to repeat his top ten finish this season will be sorely disappointed. June signed with Tampa Bay late in free agency and is slated to replace Ryan Nece on the strong side of the Buccaneer defense in 2007. You can see the full argument against June in a post on the Footballguys.com blog page, but the bottom line is that a linebacker with questionable ability to get off blockers and tackle consistently won't do well statistically on the strong side of any defense, even the Tampa-2. With Derrick Brooks still playing well in Tampa Bay, June will be stuck in IDP purgatory this season. Dynasty leaguers should keep him on the backburner in case he inherits the WLB in 2008 should Brooks move on, but redraft owners would be wise to ignore June this season.

Donnie Edwards

Donnie Edwards returns to Kansas City this offseason, leaving the statistically favorable RILB in Wade Phillips' 3-4 defense for an outside linebacker spot with the Chiefs. Edwards' new role isn't as unfavorable as Cato June's, but Edwards is only a slightly better bet to repeat his top five value this season. The Chiefs are likely to use more Cover-2 this season than last and Edwards should play in nickel packages, but the ROLB/LOLB alignment of the Chief scheme should limit Edwards' tackle opportunity enough to put another 100 solo tackle season out of reach.

Deon Grant

Deon Grant could be the Chris Hope of 2007. After disappointing statistically in the complicated coverage schemes in Jacksonville, Grant will take over the starting SS job in Seattle this season. The better overall safety in Seattle has put up very good numbers in recent seasons (a healthy Ken Hamlin has had two 75 solo tackle seasons in the past four years) and Grant should have every opportunity to reach that plateau in 2007. There is some risk with Grant, who wasn't ultra-productive during his two seasons in Carolina, but he was very likely available for a minimal investment in both dynasty and redraft leagues this summer. If Grant can reach 75-80 solos and chip in his usual coverage stats, he has DB1 potential as a Seahawk.

Adalius Thomas

Adalius Thomas leaves one top defensive unit for another in 2007, moving from the multiple front Baltimore scheme to the hybrid front schemes of New England. An outside linebacker for the most part with the Ravens, Thomas took the majority of his snaps at inside linebacker during the Patriot OTAs this spring. If that holds through training camp, Thomas could post career high tackle numbers. With Belichick's ability to put the right players in the right position to make big plays, Thomas could also approach his usual big play stats. That would be a sick combination for Thomas' IDP owners. We'll be watching the Patriot scheme closely this preseason for clues on how much opportunity Thomas will have this year.

Ken Hamlin

Ken Hamlin is an interesting case; his 2007 season could go any number of ways. After a solid statistical season in Seattle despite some questionable on-field play, Hamlin signed with Dallas as a free agent and steps into the once-revolving door at FS. While it's possible Hamlin could still put up reasonable tackle numbers despite a likely role as a roving coverage safety, it's more likely that Hamlin's statistical production will look a lot like that of Ed Reed. Hamlin doesn't have nearly the instincts or recovery speed of Reed, however, and may end up struggling with that kind of responsibility. Until Hamlin proves he can be productive in Dallas, it's best to avoid the situation in redraft leagues. Dynasty leagues should considering selling Hamlin if they can get 2006 value for him.

The next installment of Reading the Defense will be just prior to Week 1 of the regular season. In addition to all the other coming IDP print attractions, the IDP staff at Footballguys.com will also be covering the major news of the preseason with weekly podcasts on The Audible. And, as always, RTD welcomes questions, comments and suggestions by e-mail at bramel@footballguys.com.