Reading the Defense - Week 7

  Posted 10/17 by Jene Bramel, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

Is Keith Bulluck a Lost Cause in 2007? The Importance of Opportunity to IDP Value

While there are plenty of underperforming IDP studs vexing their owners, Tennessee LB Keith Bulluck has undoubtedly been the most frustrating. Judging by our message board traffic, he has certainly been generating the most discussion among those killing IDP teams across the fantasy landscape. Bulluck, formerly one of the most consistent IDPs in the league who had averaged over 100 solo tackles per season over the past five seasons, is on pace for just 61 solos in 2007. We often discuss the importance of opportunity in this column early in the year, citing stats like rushing attempts against or total offensive snaps faced. Bulluck and his Titans are an interesting test case with regard to opportunity.

Tennessee is still facing the fewest rushing attempts in the league at only 18.4 per game. If you don't think that stat is impressively low, consider that the 27th ranked team this season has faced five more attempts per game and the 16th ranked team ten more attempts per game. Only three defenses in the last five seasons have faced less than 22 rush attempts per game on average and none have faced less than 20. Still, Bulluck is a solid coverage backer and the Titans have faced the fourth most passing attempts in the league and a near historical average of 57 offensive snaps per game. So what gives?

(Warning: Stat crunching and discussion ahead. If you're just interested in the conclusions with regard to Bulluck's future, skip to the final paragraphs in this section.)

First, it's important to realize that not all opportunity is created equal. Some defensive positions are more dependent on rush attempts for IDP value. Some passing defenses are so good that even an above average number of passing attempts faced won't result in an increased tackle opportunity. With Bulluck in mind, but the fate of any number of other troubling IDPs of concern, I generated a simple spreadsheet to calculate a defensive metric we'll call Tackle Opportunity. Simply put, it totals rush attempts and pass completions against to allow a ranking and comparison of the number of plays per game each team has an opportunity to make a solo tackle. Like most football metrics, it's not perfect. It ignores sacks, which get added into each player's solo tackle column. It ignores passes defended, partially because not every team awards the stat equally and partially because most IDP value is tackle dependent. It cannot account for those plays where a solo tackle is not awarded (e.g. QB kneeldown, ballcarrier run out of bounds). And it cannot account for the multiple layers of variables present in 11 man defensive football (i.e. talent of the surrounding cast, responsibility within scheme).

Still, such a defensive metric can be useful for most linebackers and safeties. A player with poor stats and reasonable Tackle Opportunity must be considered at risk for poor future production. A player with good stats and premium Tackle Opportunity should be considered an excellent sell high candidate. And, in a case such as Bulluck's, Tackle Opportunity can be used to help determine whether our eyes-on observation that Bulluck's skill set has not declined is valid.

Here's the 2007 raw data:

If you thought that worrying over how many offensive snaps faced per game was trivial, you should be swayed by the nearly 19 more opportunities per game Detroit defenders have faced in comparison to Pittsburgh defenders. More telling, however, is that Detroit defenders are facing nearly eight more opportunities than the current season average, which projects to 128 more chances to make a solo tackle over a full season. That's clearly significant. For those worrying over sample size issues, the average team's 2007 Tackle Opportunity through Week 6 is 47.57 opp/game. The average per team Tackle Opportunity over the past three seasons was 47.27 opp/game. Those averages suggest the 2007 sample size is sufficient to draw reliable conclusions from the data.

Let's examine Bulluck. His Titan team ranks 29th in Tackle Opportunity, at 40.80 chances per game. Clearly, the team's well above average pass attempts faced hasn't been enough to save Bulluck. Remember, however, that all Tackle Opportunity is not created equal. Bulluck owners who are thinking the tide may turn for their IDP stud are only half right. The Titan defense was very solid in 2003, and provided a Tackle Opportunity of just 42.13 chances per game. But Bulluck found a way to manage 106 solo tackles that season. So what's the point of this metric, then, if it doesn't correlate to tackle production in every case?

Make no mistake, Tackle Opportunity matters. In fact, it's even more important in the case of Keith Bulluck v2007. Bulluck's surrounding cast is much better than in prior seasons. Albert Haynesworth is having a career season. He's on pace for 48 solo tackles, a ridiculous number for a DT that does not play a regular 3-technique and a total that would destroy his prior career high of 36. The MLB and FS play is much better than what replacement level talent like Rocky Boiman, Rocky Calmus, Peter Sirmon and Lamont Thompson provided in recent seasons. The willingness and ability to tackle in run support and short zones by the Titan cornerbacks are miles ahead of recent years. And the rotation of Travis LaBoy and Antwan Odom at the strong side end has shown dramatic improvement. So Bulluck's Tackle Opportunity is critically important given his current situation. There was relatively little competition for Bulluck v2003-06. The below average Tackle Opportunity wasn't a deal breaker. This season, no matter how well he plays between the sidelines, Bulluck MUST have at least average Tackle Opportunity to have IDP success.

The pertinent question, then, is whether Bulluck's opportunity is likely to improve. The improvement in the Titan defense is most evident in the run defense. Tennessee has held its opponents nearly 49 rushing attempts below their collective averages for the season over five games and no opponent has matched its season rush attempts average against them. Since the bulk of linebacker IDP value derives from rush attempts, this is the trend that needs to be most closely considered.

The Titans schedule isn't horrible over the remainder of the season - they'll face DEN, CIN, SD, KC and potentially decent rush attacks in HOU (twice) and JAX as well as the NYJ who are currently 6th in rush attempts per game. But the above trend of solid run defense numbers is likely to continue if the major defensive principals stay healthy. The next four weeks don't look promising - HOU, OAK, CAR, JAC - but the post bye week stretch run could potentially result in a sizable increase in Tackle Opportunity, with DEN, CIN, HOU, SD, KC and the NYJ through Week 16. Shallow redraft leaguers should feel very comfortable dropping Bulluck at this point if you haven't already, but everyone else should hold onto Bulluck. He may start returning to form as his Opportunity improves - right when you'll need him most.

If you made it this far, maybe you're willing to come a little farther. With apologies to Andy Dufrense and Ellis Redding, there are many more conclusions waiting to be teased from the above table.

There are a number of players whose impressive seasons to date may be due more to their teams' Tackle Opportunity figures than their skill set. Cleveland LB D'Qwell Jackson may be the foremost example. Jackson is tied for fourth in solo tackles with 40, and, while he's clearly shown improvement in his second NFL season, Jackson does not have the talent of those who surround him at that lofty ranking. Dynasty leaguers may want to consider selling high if they can get a LB2 talent back. The table also makes it apparent that Cleveland CB Eric Wright is riding the most favorable situation in the league. Across from an underrated, Pro Bowl caliber corner in Leigh Bodden and blessed with a top five Tackle Opportunity metric which is buoyed by the most pass completions against in the NFL, Wright's first six games belie his future value. Dynasty leaguers should take whatever they can get for him as soon as their 2007 season ends. And Jet LB Jonathan Vilma's 80 solo tackle pace and perceived improvement in the 3-4 scheme may be a mirage and more opportunity based than an improvement in the scheme.

It's also again clear that Keith Bulluck isn't the only player that has been hurt by a lack of opportunity. Improvement may be on the way for players like James Farrior, Ray Lewis, Mike Peterson, Kirk Morrison, Stephen Cooper, Omar Gaither, Chris Hope, LaRon Landry and Troy Polamalu. Each have been hindered by a Tackle Opportunity value among the worst in the league.

Maybe most important, especially in dynasty leagues, are those players who are over- or underperforming their Tackle Opportunity. The Redskins rank 27th in Tackle Opportunity, yet Rocky McIntosh ranks 10th in solo tackles/game. Green Bay LB Nick Barnett's start is even more impressive given his below average tackle opportunity. And Sammy Knight is becoming the Cris Carter of the IDP world. Call him slow and over-the-hill in all phases of the game. All he does is make tackles. The underperformers are headlined by St. Louis LB Will Witherspoon, whose 93 solo tackle pace is being propped up by an 11 solo Week 5 effort, and lags well behind what a MLB who has faced the second most rush attempts in the league should be producing.

Stunts

Last week's column compared Atlanta SLB Michael Boley to San Diego TE Antonio Gates as far and away the best fantasy performers at their NFL positions. Last week's MNF matchup against the Giants may have provided some indication as to why. On a number of occasions, Boley lined up to weak side of the offensive formation. On a few of those snaps, Boley was matched up in man coverage against TE Jeremy Shockey, but that wasn't always the case. With the Giants running the ball effectively at LB Demorrio Williams as teams have done in previous seasons, the trifecta of Boley's snaps at WLB, man coverage on pass catching TEs and pursuit opportunities when teams run at Williams during his weak side snaps should continue to provide Boley with plenty of chances to succeed in the boxscore.

The Vikings are apparently considering giving a percentage of WLB Chad Greenway's nickel snaps to SLB Ben Leber. According to head coach Brad Childress, the two players have "similar skill sets" and the team feels neither should receive a disparate number of defensive snaps. While Leber is an underrated cover backer, he hasn't the range or ball skills of Greenway. Still, while it seems unlikely that this would be a long term issue for his owners, it's worth keeping in mind if Greenway has been an every week starter for you this season.

At press time, the Cardinals had yet to release a specific diagnosis on the knee sprain suffered by RILB Karlos Dansby last week. Dansby was reportedly hopeful that the injury was a minor MCL sprain, which could keep him out between two and four weeks. There have been instances of players working though MCL injuries, notably Jacksonville's Mike Peterson, who didn't miss any time with an MCL sprain in early 2006. With the Cardinals' bye week coming in Week 8, however, Dansby's owners shouldn't expect to see him active until Week 9 at the earliest. Journeyman Monty Beisel stepped in and put up an impressive nine total tackles in relief and would presumptively get the start - and pick up decent IDP value - while Dansby recovers. Gerald Hayes owners shouldn't get their hopes up, as it's unlikely the Cardinals will shift back to a 4-3. Beisel at 3-4 RILB is a better fit than any current rostered player at 4-3 WLB.

Hopefully those of you in leagues that require defensive tackle starters haven't been sleeping on Tampa Bay UT Jovan Haye. After bouncing around a practice squad or two, Haye has cemented himself as the primary 3-technique tackle for the Bucs. The role fits Haye's skill set perfectly, and the third year player is quickly becoming the Cory Redding of 2007. He should find his way onto all rosters in leagues that start two DL as a matchup play. Prospective owners should keep an eye on teammate Greg Peterson, also a budding stud as an undertackle, but Haye should continue to get the bulk of the snaps for now as he drives toward a potentially lucrative pay day in RFA this offseason.

Exercise caution before running out to roster Tampa Bay CB Phillip Buchanon. While there's no question that Buchanon is performing well in a new system with two interceptions and seven passes defended though six games, only two of his 24 solo tackles over the past three weeks have come in run support. The Bucs have faced a well above average number of pass attempts thus far and only five teams have allowed more pass completions. Buchanon is a nice play this week against the Lions, but should be expected to come back to earth after Week 7 when the run of pass first offenses the Bucs have faced will come to an end.

Those hoping that the five solo tackles tallied by San Diego S Eric Weddle are a sign that he's about to get more playing time should temper their enthusiasm. All of Weddle's tackles came late in the second half in the nickel and dime packages as the Raiders tried to catch the Chargers. Weddle hasn't been able to translate his collegiate cover skills to the NFL yet, and is seemingly a half-step slow to react in many cases. He has been a surer tackler than his size might suggest, though, so his future may yet be bright in dynasty leagues.

On the heels of another solid outing last week, Carolina LB Jon Beason may have cemented his role as the teams' MLB. Head coach John Fox admitted that he should have made the move earlier in a press conference this week and strongly hinted that Morgan may not be given his starting slot back when he recovers from an Achilles' injury. It's extremely doubtful that Beason is available in any league except those that start one backer, but if he is this may be your last chance to move on him.

2007 is starting to resemble 2006 for Chicago safety Adam Archuleta. Archuleta was benched after his shaky coverage skill showed itself again, though head coach Lovie Smith later blamed Archuleta's equally shaky tackling due to his favoring a broken hand. Smith has backed Archuleta, who performed well for him in St. Louis a few years ago, saying that Archuleta's starting spot is safe. We've heard that refrain from Smith with Rex Grossman, though, and it's no stretch to see Brandon McGowan and Danieal Manning at safety when Nathan Vasher is again healthy enough to start.

Sticking with the aging and questionably productive safety theme, the Dolphins released Donovin Darius late Tuesday night. Given how disappointed the team was with the play of Cameron Worrell two weeks ago, Darius proved himself an even shakier option. While Worrell is nothing special, he'll be in a productive spot with the Miami front seven struggling with age, injury and spotty play and we're changing our tune after suggesting that he wasn't worth a roster spot in last week's column. If Worrell is still available, he's a reasonable bye week replacement with some potential upside for the stretch run.

Have a terminology or scheme question you'd like to see broken down? Wondering how a particular player is being used by his team and how his responsibilities will affect his IDP value? Send your questions to Bramel@Footballguys.com and we'll answer them in our Mailbag section.

Best of luck this week and remember to catch all the latest news on our weekly Thursday IDP Podcast available from the Podcast button on the front page of the FBG website.