Reading the Defense - Week 6

Posted 10/10 by Jene Bramel, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

Michael Boley - The Antonio Gates of SLBs?

2007 has been a wacky season that has many IDP veterans questioning many their championship-tested beliefs. In prior weeks, we've discussed whether or not Shawne Merriman (among others) has the talent to make IDP owners rethink whether a 3-4 OLB can have every week fantasy value, tried to determine why so many IDP studs have performed beyond poorly through the season's first month and, last week, whether or not 2007 was about to become the year of the 3-4 defensive end. Now, five games into the season, it's hard to label consistent week-to-week production as a fluke, leaving us to reconsider yet another long held IDP core belief - that strong side linebackers are not legitimate IDP options.

The prevailing opinion on the worth of the SLB is that, since the SLB faces relatively more blockers on each play, his tackle numbers will not be consistent enough to provide reasonable IDP value. In FBG official scoring (slightly tackle heavy with a sack-to-tackle ratio of 2.67-1) over the past five seasons, that conventional wisdom has been validated by the year-end IDP rankings (see below). No SLB has finished in the top 15 in the past five seasons. In each of the seven instances where a SLB has finished within the top 25 over that time period, big plays have had a major role in their success, as only twice has a SLB finished with 80+ solo tackles.

2006 Adalius Thomas (64-19-11, FR, 7 PD, INT) - 25th
2005 Adalius Thomas (71-15-9, 4 FF, 3 FR, 5 PD, 2 INT) - 16th
2005 Marcus Washington (74-20-7.5, 3 FF, 2 FR, 8 PD, INT) - 19th
2005 Karlos Dansby (71-19-4, 2 FF, 2 FR, 5 PD, 3 INT) - 25th
2004 Marcus Washington (83-18-4, FF, FR, 3 PD, INT) - 26th
2003 Anthony Simmons (80-20-3, FF, FR, 8 PD, 3 INT) - 24th
2002 Mark Fields (75-28-6.5, FR, INT) - 18th

Fast forward to 2007. Three SLBs (see below) are currently in the top 20 in FBG standard scoring.

2007 Michael Boley (40-6-0, FF, 3 PD, INT) - 3rd overall
2007 Derrick Johnson (27-4-3, FF, 3 PD, INT) - T10th overall
2007 Mathias Kiwanuka (21-6-5, FF, PD) - 20th

Mathias Kiwanuka, currently 20th overall, is doing it the old-fashioned way. On pace for just 67 solo tackles, Kiwanuka has added five sacks and has earned his place on the strength of the big play. The other two SLBs on the list, Michael Boley and Derrick Johnson, are both on pace to post decade high solo tackle numbers for their position. Johnson projects to 87 solos right now, which would be an amazing stat until you see the mind-boggling 128 solo tackle pace currently being set by Falcon SLB Michael Boley. Just how nuts is that number? Only five linebackers since 2002 have made more than 120 solo tackles.

Even the most open-minded IDP owner knows that pace is not sustainable. What will be very interesting to watch is whether Boley can continue at a top ten pace for the remainder of the season. Boley has a number of things working in his favor. Clearly, Boley has made himself into a great player. He uses his size-speed combination well, rarely misses a tackle, and is fluid in both pass rush and coverage. More importantly, though, is what his surrounding cast does for him. Jamaal Anderson, while not having much impact as a pass rusher, is proving to be a stout run defender. He and NT Grady Jackson are helping to minimize the trash Boley has to fight through to make plays. Keith Brooking has never been a natural MLB, reportedly looks even more out of place this year and has made just 21 solos on the season. Finally, teams have made a living running at John Abraham and the Falcons' undersized WLBs over the past two seasons. Football Outsiders game tracking stats showed that the Falcons were 28th in the league in yards allowed on runs toward the right side of their defense in 2006 and were above the league average in percentage of rushes at the weak side (32% to 27% league avg). In 2007, however, the trend has reversed. The Falcons are still giving up yards in bunches when teams run at the weak side, yet teams are running to the strong side and up the middle at a much greater pace this season. With Brooking struggling in the middle, that trend is likely to continue. If it does, Boley could be destined to be the first SLB in memory to post a 90, perhaps even a 100 solo tackle season.

Stunts

Thanks to a longtime Cajun friend, I was able to get a Saints' eye view of the coming out party of Carolina LB Jon Beason last week. After considering using second year player James Anderson in the middle, the Panthers got Beason coached up quickly and installed him at MLB with Dan Morgan out with a partially torn Achilles tendon. Beason showed the versatility the Panthers expected of him and was all over the field, filling up the boxscore with 13 total tackles (8 solo) and a pass defended. He showed the instincts necessary to plug holes in run support, made sure open field tackles, routinely chased down Saints RB Reggie Bush from sideline-to-sideline and looked natural in coverage while playing every down. Perhaps more importantly, he appeared to quickly become a steadying presence in the huddle and frequently realigned his teammates before the snap. Beason may still play out the season at WLB when Morgan returns, but there's little question where his long-term future lies. There have been impressive rookie debuts that haven't amounted to much (eg. Ahmad Brooks), but Beason looked like the best player on the field last week. Meanwhile, James Anderson sat in favor of Na'il Diggs on the weakside and may have lost any chance he had at IDP value.

Last week, we commented on how the Denver defensive scheme was keeping D.J. Williams afloat as a solid IDP option despite his apparent difficulty grasping the style of play needed to play MLB. If you missed our podcast last Thursday, you missed fellow FBG staffer and connected guy Sigmund Bloom break the news that the rumblings that Williams may be moved back outside are now coming from inside the Bronco organization as well. With another lackluster effort against the run against San Diego last week, don't be shocked to learn over the bye week that the Broncos are electing to move Nate Webster inside to get both players back into a position that better fits their skill sets. The ripple effect on the IDP value for both players will depend on who takes the nickel snaps. Prior to the season, defensive coordinator Jim Bates was planning to use Williams in the nickel over Al Wilson. Still, a move back to an every down SLB role will greatly diminish Williams' value, leaving him in a glut of LB3 players at best. Webster, if he sits in the nickel, probably won't be able to reach the LB1 numbers many Bates MLB have in prior seasons, but he will become an every week starter with the move. Williams owners should be looking to move him now for anything of reasonable value. Bear in mind, however, that Webster has balky knees and hasn't finished a full season in his career. With no other options on the roster, an injury may thrust Williams right back into the highlighted IDP role.

The production of Washington LB Rocky McIntosh can no longer be considered a fluke. McIntosh, like many WLB before him, is getting a nice boost in the boxscore with the Redskins using a lot of Tampa-2 coverage calls this season. Defensive coordinator Gregg Williams hinted this offseason that he was interested in introducing Tampa-2 concepts but was using SLB up on the line of scrimmage on the vast majority of snaps through Week 2. In Week 3 against the Giants, the Redskins looked to be aligned in a Tampa-2 look pre-snap as much as 40% of the time. Some of those plays were running plays, so the coverage wasn't evident post-snap, but the implication is important. McIntosh had one of the better games a LB has had this season against Detroit last week, suggesting that Washington again used a lot of Tampa-2 against the Lions' passing offense. If you were considering selling McIntosh high given concerns about his durability, the extra opportunity within the Redskins' scheme should be enough to mitigate those risks.

IDP owners waiting for the Atlanta WLB situation to sort itself out have to wait no longer. After being benched for poor play during the first quarter of last week's game, Demorrio Williams is again the primary option at WLB after rookie Stephen Nicholas suffered a serious ankle injury later in the game. Williams' up-and-down play will probably keep him out of the nickel package, but teams have chosen to run at him relentlessly in the past. If that happens, Williams could have better than bye week replacement value for the next 4-6 weeks while Nicholas recovers.

Despite praising his "Brian Urlacher-like skills", Detroit head coach Rod Marinelli has started to take snaps away from Lion MLB Paris Lenon over the past two weeks. Lenon, who has had a couple impressive weeks in the boxscore, has struggled to maintain a physical force in run support and made critical errors in coverage early in the year. Now apparently healthy, Teddy Lehman has been rotating in every second or third series and seeing time in nickel packages. With Lenon nursing a foot injury this week, Lehman could see even more playing time and leave neither player with consistent IDP value. As we've noted for years now, this could be the break for Lehman needs to get in the lineup long-term or an opening for yet another injury.

After getting the start two weeks ago against the Colts, Denver DE Simeon Rice was inactive last week against San Diego. The Broncos put the bulk of their efforts into stopping the run (unsuccessfully) last week but keeping Rice off the active roster was telling. Following the game, head coach Mike Shanahan admitted that Rice was still at only 80% and was having trouble getting the lean and leverage he needs to succeed as an edge rusher. Well into his 30s and deep into his recovery from the offseason shoulder procedure, Rice is finished as an IDP option.

Don't expect Cleveland ILB D'Qwell Jackson to repeat last week's 14 total tackle effort on an every week basis. Like the Jets' Jonathan Vilma, Jackson seems to be coming into his own and has the skill set to succeed in an unfavorable role in the Belichick 3-4 defense, but his opportunity may not be consistent enough to provide every week starter value.

IDP owners should not get excited over the 7-4-0 posted by Miami safety Cameron Worrell last week. Worrell, who filled in for an injured Donovin Darius, played much worse than his boxscore would suggest and was beaten deep on a number of plays early in the game. He's likely to go back to the bench when Darius returns from his calf problem. That may be as soon as this week.

Have a terminology or scheme question you'd like to see broken down? Wondering how a particular player is being used by his team and how his responsibilities will affect his IDP value? Send your questions to Bramel@Footballguys.com and we'll answer them in our Mailbag section.

Best of luck this week and remember to catch all the latest news on our weekly Thursday IDP podcast available from the Podcast button on the front page of the FBG website.