Reading the Defense - Week 5
Posted 10/3 by Jene Bramel, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
Bye Week Roster Management - Steady Production or Risky Upside?
Week 4 marked the first of seven bye weeks an owner must navigate to solidify a playoff spot. While assembling the best starting lineup you can for the playoffs is the ultimate goal, working the bye weeks when you lose players to rest or injury often separates the best owners from the mediocre ones. Maximizing your advantage during these weeks can mean the difference between a first round playoff bye, if not a playoff spot altogether, and give you an important lift in leagues that award bonuses and tiebreakers to teams that score the most total points. Prompted by an excellent post by stevegamer on our FBG IDP discussion board, it's worth considering how to approach filling out your starting lineup during these critical weeks.
FBG was founded on the understanding and optimization of value based drafting principles, which argue the importance of maximizing relative advantage against an opponent wherever possible. In short, to win head-to-head leagues, you need to outscore your opponent by as many points as possible at as many roster spots as you can. That sounds as obvious as a Herm Edwards press conference but take a look at how many owners in your league fill out their starting slots with a guy who has little chance of outscoring any number of players you could grab off the waiver wire. Those replacement level players do not push you closer to winning a game in any given week. Starting a player who has a floor of five points and a ceiling of six while leaving a player with 12 point upside on the waiver wire may keep you from winning a game you would otherwise have lost.
Consider the following scenarios:
1. You have a good team that is hovering around .500 after having some bad luck with injuries and facing high scoring teams. You're going to be hit hard with bye weeks and your in-division opponent this week has an above-average team. You think you're going to need to get a little lucky to win and are looking at starting a marginal DL3 and LB5 that are struggling but you still have hope will produce. How aggressive should you be?
Very aggressive. There is zero upside with your current lineup. But many owners will start guys like Patrick Kerney or Bradie James and risk a below average week with little upside when they could have grabbed a player with bigger upside and an only slightly lower floor. How about taking a flier on Jarrett Johnson against Trent Dilfer and a sieve-like Niner OL this week? Or Daryl Smith against LJ and Gonzalez? A big week from a flier helps you much more than a so-so week from a guy you can find on the waiver wire in any given week.
2. You have a bad team that, due to poorer than expected play from its anchors (read: Brees, Evans, Peppers, Rhodes, etc), needs to have some amazing weeks to climb back into contention but still has potential. You think you're going to need to get a little lucky to win and are looking at starting a marginal DL3 and LB5 that are struggling but you still have hope will produce. How aggressive should you be?
Very aggressive. With a little luck, any unexpected win you pick up might become the difference when and if your studs return to form. There's no reason not to fill in as many lineup spots with upside as you can. What have you lost if you lose? What have you gained if one 25 point week from Victor Hobson wins you a game you wouldn't have won otherwise?
In fact, there's an argument to be made that you should be this aggressive every week unless you think you already have a healthy advantage on your opponent and want the safe points or the price of cutting a player with clear upside later in the season isn't worth risking on a team you strongly expect to be playoff bound. Every team can find safe points. Close matchups are often won by whichever team has that "breakout" week and kills its opposition at that lineup position. Andre Davis won a lot of games as a 3rd WR last week. So did Patrick Crayton. Taking a shot on Jarrad Page's matchup against LT and Gates or Jacques Reeves against a likely pass heavy Ram offense could have doubled up your opponent at one lineup slot.
Admittedly, this is easier to do in some leagues than others but it can still be done in deeper leagues with more roster spots by rostering a couple of big upside guys for a rainy day or aggressively considering the matchup each week for hot spots. It won't work every time - these guys are on the wire for a reason - but an astute owner can often correctly handicap which blind squirrel is about to become an eagle-eyed stud. The benefits far outweigh the risks. So be on the lookout for cornerbacks facing Green Bay, Detroit, Cincinnati, Dallas and St. Louis. Keep in mind that the Philadelphia home stat crews hands out passes defended twice as often than any other in the league. If there's a corner with decent ball skills on a team that might get ahead of Philly at home (like Anthony Henry (W9) or Marcus Trufant (W13)), he's a very strong spot start. And consider taking a shot on a lesser DE or a pass rushing OLB facing Detroit, San Francisco, Chicago, St. Louis, Philadelphia or Atlanta.
Year of the 3-4 defensive end?
Conventional IDP wisdom has always been that 3-4 defensive ends aren't viable IDP options and, except in the rarest of cases, should be ignored as fantasy players. We made the argument in the Offseason RTD Report and on the FBG discussion forum that, much like 3-4 ILBs, there is value to be had here if you look in the right places. Still, few would have predicted such a surge in the number of 3-4 ends who have had top IDP value through the first month of the season. In FBG standard scoring, which is slightly tackle heavy, there are currently four 3-4 defensive ends in the top ten - Darnell Dockett (1), Marques Douglas (3), Kenyon Coleman (8) and Bryant Young (10). Is that a fluke or is it likely to continue?
The answer is that it's probably too small of a sample size to say for certain, but it's reasonable to expect that the stud 4-3 ends will again rule the day by season's end. Acknowledging that there are more teams running the 3-4 front this year than in prior seasons, there has been only one 3-4 defensive end among the top 20 in FBG scoring in each of the past three years - none of whom repeated the feat the following season. But which of the current crop of six players within the top 20 are likely to remain consistent enough to break the stereotype?
Considering skill set (solid run supporter, some pass rush ability) and opportunity within the defense (one gap scheme, use of a four man defensive line in the nickel), two 3-4 ends are likely to finish the 2007 season as reliable IDP options (top 24) with a few additional rosterable spot starting options. If either Dockett or Douglas is still available, they should be immediately rostered and considered as every week starting options. Neither player is likely to be a fluke. Dockett may be inconsistent in the tackle column as a primarily 2-gap end, but gets enough additional opportunity as a pass rushing DT in the Cardinals' aggressive nickel defense that his numbers should look a lot like a 4-3 end at season's end. Douglas has a history of producing in a 1-gap 3-4 scheme in 2004 (52-11-4.5) and 2003 (49-23-5.5) with Mike Nolan in Baltimore and is probably the odds-on favorite to finish as the most productive 3-4 end in 2007. Two other players who have the talent to finish in the top 24 are Luis Castillo, whose health continues to hold him back but is on pace for over 40 solos on a gimpy ankle, and Ty Warren, who looks as disruptive as ever but is being held back by not having Richard Seymour to draw blockers and having faced the fewest offensive snaps per game in the league. Coleman, Young and Shaun Ellis are also rosterable but won't be consistent enough to use regularly.
Stunts
As we noted last week, it's time to move on Houston WLB Morlon Greenwood if he's available. Greenwood, always an under the radar LB3/spot starter, is back in an every down role and producing. Shawn Barber, inactive two weeks ago, was active last week but saw time on special teams only and no longer looks to have a role in the nickel package. If Greenwood is available, his bye doesn't come until Week 10, making him a nice depth player to own while your studs take their bye week vacations.
Despite an early week report that Chicago WLB Lance Briggs was likely to play through a groin injury, Briggs was unable to practice and missed last week's game against Detroit. His replacement, Jamar Williams, didn't fare well, making only two solo tackles and a sack. Importantly, for those of you searching for Briggs' long term replacement at the primo WLB slot in the Bear defense, Williams played only sparingly in the nickel package. That could be read in a couple of ways. It could be that the team felt that the less athletic Hunter Hillenmeyer would be more sound in his cover responsibilities against the precise Mike Martz offense. Or it could be that Williams is seen as somewhat of a liability in coverage. Either way, the WLB on a defense that runs a lot of Tampa-2 coverage has to be able to cover and if the problem is the latter, it could provide still more insight on why the Bears were so keen to draft Michael Okwo (now on IR) in April. In any event, expect Briggs to do whatever he can to get back on the field as soon as possible. He needs to play 75% of the defensive snaps to kick in a clause that keeps the Bears from using the franchise tag on him again next offseason.
Those looking for a last minute replacement at DB should watch the injury reports and track the status of Chicago safety Adam Archuleta this week. Archuleta, despite requesting to play with a cast on his broken hand last week, was made inactive with the rest of the Bear starting secondary last week and his availability is in question again this week. If you're new to IDP leagues, you may not remember the brief stretch his replacement, Brandon McGowan, had in late 2005 as a fill-in starter when he totaled 23 solo tackles in three games. McGowan is a compact, sure tackler and the Green Bay matchup closely resembles last week's matchup with Detroit.
Another strong option off the free agent lists this week might be New England safety Rodney Harrison, who is due to return this week from his four game suspension for violating the substance abuse policy. Harrison may have been dropped before the season began by owners who didn't want to wait around or had questions about his up and down performances in recent years. Harrison looked like a promising option during the preseason and could provide a nice boost to lineups during the bye weeks.
The Niners used a 4-2-5 nickel alignment frequently last week against the Seahawks. With Manny Lawson out and Hannibal Navies and Tully Banta-Cain unlikely to generate much pressure off the edges from the 3-4, it wouldn't be shocking to see more four man fronts on early downs as well. Mike Nolan was not afraid to scrap the 3-4 last preseason when the run defense suffered, he may do the same this year for stretches if he feels Marques Douglas and Bryant Young can provide more pressure than the outside backers. With Patrick Willis already on pace for over 100 solo tackles before last week's ten solo tackle nickel outburst and Marques Douglas already a solid option as a 3-4 end, there isn't likely to be any major change in value if the Niners shake their scheme up moving forward.
Although we're a long way from the final stat lines, if you're still not convinced that opportunity within the scheme is essential to forecasting IDP value, here's a quick update on a couple of the most controversial LBs of the preseason. Patrick Willis, who many were nervous about after being "stuck" in a 3-4 scheme, is on pace for 116 solo tackles. That pace may not be sustainable given the number of snaps the San Francisco defense has faced, but Willis has proven himself an every week starter. And, while he still has observers questioning his fit at MLB, DJ Williams is showing that the Bates MLB role provides IDP value despite his inconsistencies and mistakes. He's on pace for 112 solo tackles for the season and had a ten tackle day against the Colts last week despite playing behind a gimmicky set of defensive tackles (see below). Both players currently rank in the top twelve in FBG scoring. It'll be interesting to see if the trend continues.
Keep a very close eye on Denver DE Simeon Rice, who earned the start at RDE this week when the Broncos opened up in a four man line designed to maximize speed and pressure on Indianapolis QB Peyton Manning. The Broncos lined up with Rice and Elvis Dumervil at end and Jarvis Moss and Tim Crowder at tackle. The alignment didn't produce the desired effect, as the Colts averaged 6.1 yards per rush on 37 carries and hit Manning only twice with zero sacks on 27 passing attempts. Don't expect to see that alignment again, but it may be a sign that the Broncos are ready to increase Rice's playing time. If he begins to get snaps on early downs over John Engelberger, it might be time to stash him as a spot starter with Oakland, Detroit and Kansas City (twice) on the upcoming schedule.
Word came out on Monday that Carolina MLB Dan Morgan's "heel" injury is actually a partially torn Achilles tendon. There's been no timetable set for Morgan's return, who noted that he'd had some inflammation in that area since the preseason. The injury is apparently only a small tear but don't be surprised to see the team give Morgan a couple of weeks off to get him through the team's Week 7 bye. It was James Anderson again at MLB with Seward inactive and Anderson finished with a so-so 5-2-0. Head coach John Fox continues to be noncommittal about the long term plan but Anderson will need to have a better showing in the boxscore against 42 rushing attempts to keep the team from moving Beason into the middle. It's also unclear whether Anderson or Beason joined Thomas Davis in the nickel. With upcoming matchups against the Saints and Cardinals, whichever player gets the nickel job is the one to own and start.
The Detroit defensive line is becoming somewhat of an enigma. The Lions destroyed the Chicago OL last week, tallying six sacks and two additional quarterback hits. Jared DeVries who, like his injured teammate Kalimba Edwards, never seemed to be able to take advantage of his opportunities to play, put up three sacks after never having more than three sacks in a season in his five year career. Meanwhile, Dewayne White has cooled off significantly after a huge start in Week 1. The matchups have been favorable for White and it may be time to think about using the roster spot elsewhere in shallow leagues. Deeper leagues and dynasty owners may want to hold and see if the solid pass rush Shaun Rogers and Langston Moore are providing inside begins to siphon blockers away from White on the edge.
Those in defensive tackle specific leagues looking for a spot starter should move on Miami UT Rod Wright, who may get a spot start or extended playing time if Vonnie Holliday can't recover from an ankle injury suffered last week. Wright has a nice skill set for the undertackle role and broke through with a 3-1-0 line in his first action as a pro.
Have a terminology or scheme question you'd like to see broken down? Wondering how a particular player is being used by his team and how his responsibilities will affect his IDP value? Send your questions to Bramel@Footballguys.com and we'll answer them in our Mailbag section.
Best of luck in Week 5 and remember to catch all the latest news on our weekly Thursday IDP Podcast available from the Podcast button on the front page of the FBG website.
