Reading the Defense - Week 2

  Posted 9/12 by Jene Bramel, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

Stay Off The Ledge

It happens every season. Owners second guess their draft picks and panic when what they thought were solid lineup options have a poor first game or two. They react and reach for the replacement level NFL talent who had a stud week, sometimes dumping an established talent on the waiver wire in the process. When the hot free agent pick crawls back into the hole they came from, the process gets repeated over and over again. These owners end up chasing their tails all season long.

Don't be that owner.

To illustrate the point, veteran IDP sharks will recall a certain "stud" defensive lineman who started his 2006 season with a sickly 1-3-1 stat line over his first three games. More and more owners panicked over the first month. Many cut this one time stud theoretically turned dud. Starting in Week 4, that defensive lineman racked up 36 solo tackles and 13.5 tackles. Who was that guy? Aaron Schobel. Looking back, it sure seems silly to think that Schobel was sent to the waiver wire in some leagues. Yet he was.

Don't be that owner.

That isn't to say that you should hold every stud a few extra weeks or take a wait-and-see approach on every one week IDP wonder. It's only meant to be a cautionary tale that you must learn when to "act" and when not to "react". Closely observing your players during games or carefully examining the NFL.com gamebooks will often help you to see why a player's weekly stat line is likely to be a fluke or a clear sign of things to come. Careful observation will help you find those "mediocre" games that are actually the beginning of something bigger and determine whether or not your stud's pitiful week is the end of the line or just a blip in the radar.

Before we jump into this season's version of Defender or Pretender, here's what RTD had to say about Aaron Schobel after his Week 2 performance:

"Don't give up on a guy like Aaron Schobel despite a total of one tackle and sack this season. FBG staffer and Bills homer Aaron Rudnicki took a close look at Schobel's performance against the Dolphins this week and noted that Miami all but ignored Schobel's side of the field when running the ball. Schobel, one of the best run defending DEs in the game, is a stud as a result of those extra tackles he makes against the run. While it may be that the Dolphins' game plan was to avoid Schobel, it's much more likely that Miami chose to run left to take advantage of undersized SLB Keith Ellison. When Takeo Spikes returns to the lineup, it won't be a big surprise to see Schobel's tackle stats follow suit. If you have an impatient owner in your league who might get panicky on Schobel and sell cheaply, take advantage without worry."

Veteran IDP owners know how to objectively tease the details out of questionable situations, both good and bad, and win because of it.

Defender or Pretender

Now that we're in the right frame of mind, let's take a look at the surprises and disappointments of Week 1 and decide whether good weeks were flukes or the beginning of a breakout year and whether poor weeks were aberrations or signs of a down year.

• DE Kyle Vanden Bosch (0-0-0)/LB Keith Bulluck (3-0-0)/SS Chris Hope (3-0-0, PD, FR) - DEFENDERS
  All three of these players finished in the top twelve in FBG standard scoring in 2006. What happened last week? They were victims of their own surprising ball-control offense. The Jaguar offense could not get on the field and could not generate an extended drive when they did. The average number of offensive plays each defense faced per game in 2006 was 62. The Titans faced 48. There were only 37 plays that could have resulted in a solo tackle or sack. Five of those plays were QB scrambles. Simply put, there just wasn't enough opportunity for the Titans to rack up sacks. It would've been nice if the Titan stud IDPs had made their usual percentage of their team's plays. But, like LaDainian Tomlinson's 27 rush yards or Lee Evans one catch afternoon last week, IDP studs have off weeks too. All three of these players are great bets to rebound. Even Vanden Bosch, who faces a tough matchup in big play leagues against the Colts, should see a return to his usual tackle stats in Week 2. Veteran owners should have Vanden Bosch on their buffet lists as it won't be shocking to see a panicky, non-FBG owner dump him if he struggles against Indianapolis. He may soon become this season's gift on your waiver wire.


• FS Jim Leonhard (8-5-0, INT) - PRETENDER
  The Bills defense has been decimated over the past month. Free safety Ko Simpson joined the long list of severe injuries to the Buffalo starting unit after suffering a broken ankle in the first quarter last week. Jim Leonhard stepped in and filled up the boxscore with 13 total tackles. He's likely to be the hottest DB pickup in all IDP leagues this week. But, unless you're in a particularly deep league, leave him off your list in favor of a better option. Leonhard faced 71 offensive plays against Denver and 56 that resulted in a tackle or sack, both above average numbers. The free safety position was ably manned by Simpson last year, who was able to top five solo tackles only once in 2006 on his way to a 51 solo tackle finish. The Tampa-2 defense does not provide much tackle opportunity for tackles for it's free safeties and there'll only be scraps behind Paul Posluszny, Angelo Crowell and Donte Whitner in future weeks. The Bills defense may be bad, but they won't be bad enough to give Leonhard consistent opportunity. Let someone else insert the coming 2-1-0 weeks into their starting lineup.


• WLB Rocky McIntosh (9-2-1, FF) - DEFENDER
  McIntosh got off to a slow start last year as a rookie, losing valuable reps to a camp holdout and arthroscopic knee surgery. After spending the offseason working on his fitness and understanding Gregg Williams' complicated playbook, McIntosh quickly established himself as an every down player this offseason. While there's no chance that he'll continue at this 176 total tackle pace, McIntosh looks primed to join the very elite group of non-Tampa-2 WLB with LB2 or better IDP value.


• DE Dewayne White (6-1-1, INT, 2 FF, FR) - DEFENDER
  Dewayne White was somewhat of an enigma in Tampa Bay. White was a talented two-way defender who showed flashes of greatness but was never able to push solid veteran Greg Spires out of the starting role. Facing one of the poorer offensive lines in the league, White's explosion probably won those brave enough to start him their Week 1 matchup. Can it continue? It can and it will. White is obviously not going to rack up six tackles and a pick every week, but two things are telling here. First, the five non-sack solos suggest he can be an all-around defensive end that leads to the critical consistency IDP owners crave. Second, the two forced fumble underlie his suddenness at the pocket and when tackling ball carriers. Those are skills that translate against better offensive lines. White is very unlikely to be a fluke. If he's somehow still available, he's a must roster in all systems.


• LB Hunter Hillenmeyer (8-1-0) - PRETENDER
  How often was Hillenmeyer the Bears' leading tackler in 2006? Zero. How often has Hillenmeyer made eight or more solo tackles in his 43 game career? Last week was only the second time. Hillenmeyer is a nice player but benefited from the team's gameplan to contain Antonio Gates. The Bears used a lot of zone double coverage against Gates with a safety on top and OLB underneath, allowing Hillenmeyer increased tackle opportunity. The seven outlet passes to LaDainian Tomlinson didn't hurt either. Half of Hillenmeyer's tackles came on passes to Gates and Tomlinson and another on a Philip Rivers scramble. It was a perfect matchup and situation that is highly unlikely to be repeated. Veteran owners might smirk at highlighting Hillenmeyer as a pretender, but RTD guarantees that Hillenmeyer will be picked up in nearly every league this week, even some so-called "shark" leagues. Don't be the owner that rosters him.


• CB Marlin Jackson (8-4-0, FF) - DEFENDER
  Many at FBG, and RTD in particular who had him rated more highly than nearly every other FBG staffer at 34th overall and the 7th best CB in our preseason rankings, have pimped Jackson as the most likely backup cornerback to take advantage of the Tampa-2 scheme and become the next Charles Tillman or Ronde Barber. Big things were expected of Jackson as an every down starter and he didn't disappoint in Week 1. Jackson showed the nose for the ball all stud Cover-2 corners must have and was active and physical in run support and underneath coverage all game long. It may be a stretch to predict Tillman/Barber stats after one game, but the potential is there. Roster him in all leagues where he may be available.


• DE Kenyon Coleman (10-2-0) - PRETENDER
  Ten solo tackles from a 3-4 defensive end against a very good Patriot offensive line and RTD labels Coleman a pretender? Seriously? Yes. While Coleman is a nice player and may be worth rostering in a very tackle heavy scoring system, he'll struggle to make half as many tackles over the rest of the year. If something looks too good to be true, it probably is. While Coleman may be this season's breakout 3-4 end, even the best of the 3-4 ends struggle to provide enough stats to be every week starters. Only one 3-4 end has finished in the top twenty in each of the past three seasons. Chances are good Coleman won't join that elite group in 2007.


• DE Kalimba Edwards (2-1-2, 2 FF) - PRETENDER
  What about the other Detroit defensive end? Edwards had two sacks and two forced fumbles. Why is he a pretender and not a defender? Edwards, unlike Dewayne White, has no history of solid play, especially in run support. Edwards has been a perennial tease and has yet to produce a 30 solo tackle or double digit sack season. If Edwards is as productive against stud LT Bryant McKinnie next week as he was against a weak Oakland offensive line this week, he becomes worth considering. For now, though, leave Edwards on the "show-me-something" pile.


• OLB James Harrison (7-0-1) - DEFENDER
  Harrison fell off the radar in many circles after LaMarr Woodley and Lawrence Timmons got a lot of offseason hype as potential edge rushing threats at OLB. Harrison continued to perform well and cemented his job as Joey Porter's replacement at ROLB. Harrison has always been a solid pass rush threat, including a three week stretch in 2005 where he had three sacks in four weeks filling in for an injured Clark Haggans. The impressive part of Harrison's stat line is the seven solos, many of which came inside the box in run support in the first half against Cleveland when the game was still close. Those in big play leagues may still have a shot at Harrison on the wire, but owners that play in tackle neutral should also have an eye on Harrison. He may produce LB3 numbers, not unlike Shaun Phillips did in 2006, this season.


• FS Reggie Nelson (7-0-1, FF) - PRETENDER
  Toughest call on the list and it may be dead wrong. Although he didn't start the game, Nelson replaced Sammy Knight late in the second quarter (with Gerald Sensabaugh moving over to SS) and tied with three of his teammates for the most solo tackles on the team. Nelson may be different, but the Jaguars free safety position has not been a productive IDP option under the Jack Del Rio/Jim Schwartz staff. Most of Nelson's tackles came well downfield, suggesting that he'll need ball carriers to come to him. Nelson did make an impact as a blitzer and could be a solid option in big play leagues, but will likely be a marginal option in most tackle heavy systems.

Stunts

While others are considering Kenyon Coleman as the 3-4 defensive end du jour, it might be a better idea to turn your attention to New England DE Jarvis Green. Green, who we mentioned in last week's IDP Roundtable Podcast on The Audible, moved into the starting lineup with Richard Seymour stuck on the PUP list for the first six weeks (minimum) of 2007 and had five solo tackles and two sacks this week. The Patriots, at least for this week, stayed mostly in a three man front. That's significant for Green, as much of his productive games in recent seasons have come when Bill Belichick used a lot of base 4-3 fronts. Green is a big, quick end who has shown a capable pass rush and run support ability. He could end up being the best of the 3-4 ends in 2007.

We finally got some closure on the nickel situations in Philadelphia, San Diego and Tampa Bay. The Eagles, despite the curve ball they threw in the third preseason game, kept Omar Gaither in the nickel when the lights went on for real. The Chargers put their best inside linebacker, Stephen Cooper, in the nickel after suggesting that Matt Wilhelm would play every down earlier in the offseason. And the Bucs may be recognizing what the rest of the league was seeing when they left Cato June wanting work deep into the free agent period, keeping MLB Barrett Ruud in the nickel in Week 1. Ruud's role may be the shakiest of the group, but all three will see bumps in value for now.

Speaking of Omar Gaither, don't give up on him just yet after his disappointing first week boxscore. As expected, Jim Johnson was using the preseason nickel snaps to give SLB Chris Gocong some experience in coverage to improve his play in the base defense and Gaither took the bulk of the nickel snaps. Two things warrant mentioning after the Green Bay game last week. First, although Gaither continues to have difficulty getting off blocks from offensive linemen, the Packers kept the Eagles in the nickel by lining up with three wide receivers the vast majority of their offensive snaps. That effectively kept the SLB off the field and allowed the Packers to get a bigger blocker on Gaither. Second, DT Mike Patterson had a stellar day disengaging from blocks and making plays in run support. Six of his seven solo tackles came on inside runs within three yards of the line of scrimmage. It's likely that the Eagles will be in a base defense more often and that teams could begin double teaming Patterson in future weeks. Both would give Gaither more room to make plays. Gaither could also begin making an impact as a pass rusher, as the Eagles used him often on blitzes and stunts from the nickel package.

It looks like the Nick Barnett of 2004-05 might be back. Barnett, who struggled behind an inferior set of defensive tackles and with a number of nagging injuries last year, might return to his prior levels of production. Those of you who read RTD last season are probably thinking that we're looking for a chance to slam WLB A.J. Hawk again, but that's not the case. Barnett looked efficient against the Eagles last week, effectively shedding blockers and fluidly changing direction in coverage. Hawk will keep the race close, but it won't be surprising for Barnett to prove the Bates MLB corollary again this year.

Although we touched on it briefly in our discussion of Jim Leonhard above, it bears repeating again here: The Bills defense is in trouble. Already without Ryan Denney and Keith Ellison for an extended period, Buffalo lost FS Ko Simpson and CB Jason Webster for the season last week and may have lost second team WLB Coy Wire for at least a month with a knee sprain. Unless Terrence McGee returns to his 2005 level of play, that leaves only four above average defenders in the starting unit. Opposing offenses should continue to find success, padding the stats of Paul Posluszny and Angelo Crowell in the process. Keep an eye on CB Ashton Youboty as a potential replacement for Webster at corner. He has the size, physical skill set and potential ball skills to fit the mold of a productive Tampa-2 corner in the boxscore. If he's named the starter this week, those in leagues that start corners shouldn't wait until he has a good game to roster him.

Time to move on Justin Tuck if you haven't already. With Osi Umenyiora out for some undetermined length of time and Michael Strahan apparently recovered from his Lisfranc injury, Tuck should have every down responsibility. His 4-0-1 is a sign of good things to come.

Not mentioned in our list last week of young defensive ends on the verge of breaking out was Minnesota DE Brian Robison. Robison was left off since he's unlikely to be more than a situational pass rusher this season. Still, as Mark Anderson (among others) has proven in the past, a stud situational rusher can have IDP value in the right situation. Big play leagues should move on him and hope for continued production. Owners with neutral systems can pick him up to use in a favorable matchup but shouldn't expect every week production.

Though he may still be in the team's plans, you should keep Falcon WLB Demorrio Williams on a short leash. Head coach Bobby Petrino noted that the team had planned to rotate Williams and rookie Stephen Nicholas during the first week to "keep both fresh." That isn't how things happened during the game, however, as Williams sat the entire second half and was rarely seen in any of the team's nickel snaps. Should Williams move back to a reserve role, Nicholas could well pick up most of the value Williams was expected to have in Mike Zimmer's aggressive, speed-hungry scheme. If you have room, it's time to stash Nicholas, especially in dynasty leagues.

Have a terminology or scheme question you'd like to see broken down? Wondering how a particular player is being used by his team and how his responsibilities will affect his IDP value? Send your questions to bramel@footballguys.com and we'll answer them in our Mailbag section.

Best of luck in Week 2 and remember to catch all the latest news on our weekly IDP Podcast available from the Podcast button on the front page of the FBG website.