Reading the Defense - Week 17
Posted 12/26 by Jene Bramel, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
What have we learned?
Championships are won in the offseason. There is no offseason in IDP fantasy football. Luck is the residue of design. Those maxims are the basis of what our FBG IDP coverage is all about. Following the key free agent movements, scheme changes and incoming rookie draft picks is important, but you should always start your offseason by considering what went right and what went not so right with your gameplan this season. This year, a number of our closely held beliefs were severely tested. While it was a crazy season, particularly on a week-to-week basis, a measured look at the big picture proves that the cracks in the foundation aren't bad enough to condemn the entire structure.
3-4 OLB Are STILL Too Inconsistent To Be Every Week Fantasy Anchors
One of our many preseason debates this year focused on whether Shawne Merriman and Demarcus Ware were about to successfully change the minds of grizzled IDP veterans who choose to avoid the 3-4 OLB as a roster anchor in tackle heavy/neutral leagues. Both players seemed ready to assume a top 25 slot and provide plenty of consistent big play production. Well, it never happened. Merriman stands 38th in the LB rank list by FBG scoring (projects to 30th in fantasy points per game) and made three solos or less without a sack in six of his 14 games. Ware ranks 28th and has been a well below-average start in five of his 15 contests. Both have put up the double digit sacks expected of them, so what's the problem? Obviously, the tackle production hasn't been there. And that will always be the rub for a pass rushing OLB. That group of players simply has to put up a 15+ number in the sack column to claim the value at which they're often drafted (as a LB2 or better). Three 3-4 OLB are currently ranked in the top 24 (LB2 production) - James Harrison (7), Julian Peterson (22), Calvin Pace (24). It should be no shock that the best 3-4 OLB of 2007, Harrison, is on pace for over 75 solos this year and a fully balanced tackle-sack-coverage stat line. Expect Harrison to go with Merriman and Ware in the relatively early rounds of your draft next year. Take the risk, well, at your own risk. Too much has to go right, even for the best talents, for these guys to play to their draft position. There's obviously nothing wrong with these guys in big play scoring systems, and there's still a place for their huge relative advantage possibilities at the LB3 or LB4 lineup slot. But relying a 3-4 OLB as your anchor IDP is still not worth the investment.
Even the Exceptional Strong Side Linebackers Remain Risky Weekly Options
During Week 7, we detailed the exceptional years that Michael Boley and Derrick Johnson were having. At the time, Boley ranked 3rd overall and was on pace for the most solo tackles in five years (128), while Johnson wasn't far behind on a pace for a top ten ranking and what would have been a five year high in solos (projected 87). Ten weeks later, Boley remains in the top ten, but may not reach the 100 solo tackle mark after his point per game production fell from 15.3 PPG to 10.9 PPG after Week 8. The 10.9 PPG number is inflated by a nine solo, three sack effort in Week 12. Johnson has fallen to #25 overall, which is where the best SLBs have finished the year in most seasons. Like Marcus Washington and Adalius Thomas before them, Boley and Johnson were nice surprises as SLBs but were hard to count on when it mattered most. All four players are great examples of the kind of SLB that's worth targeting, however. All-around talents with every down responsibilities that include a twist (pass rush chances for all, ROLB responsibilities for all but Washington) can afford a SLB in name better than expected opportunity.
Ignore 3-4 ILBs at Your Extreme Peril
We spent a good deal of this offseason researching the variants of the 3-4 defensive front with an eye peeled for useful trends that could keep us ahead of the projection curve, given the ever-increasing number of NFL teams employing 3-4 defenses. Our preseason strategy articles highlighted a clear trend that 3-4 RILB in the Phillips scheme, assuming every down responsibility, were a near-lock for 100 solo tackles. This season, three NFL teams (DAL, SD and SF) played a 3-4 front with a Phillips-like playbook. The trend held, and in a big way. Patrick Willis, the Niners rookie RILB, is on pace for the highest solo tackle total (133) since the league began recording the stat. He joins a long list of stud IDPs who succeeded in that role - Ray Lewis, Donnie Edwards, Keith Brooking, etal - and likely carried a good many of his owners (who were able to draft him as their LB3 or worse) to a title this year. Unfortunately, the league's other two Phillips RILB (Matt Wilhelm and Akin Ayodele) did not have every down responsibilities and will be the first two Phillips RILB since 2002 to post less than 99 solo tackles. Still, it warrants mentioning that Wilhelm, a replacement level NFL talent who didn't play in all nickel packages, still projects to 86 solos for the year. Pay close attention to those two clubs in the offseason - should either sign/draft/acquire an every down talent to install into that spot, that player should go immediately to the top of your 2008 shopping list.
It's also worth noting that the trend favoring the LILB in the Belichick family of 3-4 hybrids seems to have held again this season, though it isn't as strong as the Phillips trend. David Harris, who was installed as the Jet LILB in a position shuffle following the loss of Jonathan Vilma for the year, has starter numbers that project to a mind boggling 132 solo tackles over a 16 game season. And not many would guess that the LILB combination of Leon Williams and Andra Davis will likely out-tackle RILB D'Qwell Jackson (with Davis for 3 games) combination (99-94 through 15 games) in 2008. No doubt many 3-4 naysayers will have Willis as their #1 overall LB next season and Harris very likely in the top ten after slighting both this preseason. Hopefully, FBG subscribers in dynasty leagues will have already taken advantage of those late to the party.
3-4 Defensive Ends Are STILL a Tease
In Week 5, with four 3-4 defensive ends holding top ten rankings among all defensive linemen, we asked the question, "Is 2007 the Year of the 3-4 DE?" The rest of the column suggested that the historical trends would likely rule the day and the 3-4 ends would drop out of the top 20 by year's end. Though it's close, that's exactly what has happened, and the drops have been precipitous. Darnell Dockett, the #1 overall DL after Week 4, has dropped to #17 and from 11.8 fantasy points per game (FBG scoring) to 4.4 FPPG after Week 8. Marques Douglas, #3 after Week 4, is now #21, with an 8.9 to 5.3 FPPG drop. Kenyon Coleman, #8 after Week 4, is now #22, and has dropped to 6.3 FPPG from 8.0 during the first half of the season. Dockett and Douglas have dropped further than expected, but those who sold high on these guys early in the season were sitting pretty down the stretch. For schematic reasons we discussed in earlier columns, unless you own a very talented DE in an aggressive 3-4 scheme with above-average surrounding personnel, don't rush to roster these players. In other words, don't chase the early season stats of these players unless they have a spotless resume of talent, skill set, surrounding cast and scheme. And if you own one, sell to the first bidder who comes sniffing around your roster with something of equal or better value.
Though the "lessons" above are not new, they're still important reminders that reacting to crazy weeks, or full seasons of silliness, is often the wrong decision. We may be talking about the upside down nature of 2007 for years, but it's clear that this season wasn't completely unpredictable. There are three big lessons I'm taking away from the 2007 season; one a new thought, two not-so-gentle reminders that forcing a square peg into a round hole hasn't worked before and it's not likely to work in the future.
Making the Big Laydown - Understanding Early Season IDP Trends
We've mentioned this study earlier this season, but a poster on our IDP discussion board did a mathematical analysis of early season point trends by position. Based on three years worth of data, he concluded that if a player continued to perform above or below expectations through Week 5, things were highly unlikely to change over the remainder of the season. The conclusion was particular compelling for defensive backs. We'll be looking to add the year 2007 data point and tweak the conclusions (if necessary) after considering a few other specific variables, but the simple conclusions of this study should give owners pause before buying low on a stud who starts slow in 2008 as Keith Bulluck or Kerry Rhodes did this season. It may seem counterintuitive to the "don't react too soon" strategy, but the data are too compelling to ignore.
Be Wary Projecting Big Things When History Suggests Otherwise
In other words, don't force Chris Hope's 2006 onto Deon Grant in 2007. Grant was one of my favorite sleeper DBs for 2007. A heady veteran with an above replacement level skill set moving to a team with seemingly better opportunity than at any point during his career - sounded like a recipe for success. That's where the comparison should have ended. Hope had produced better than expected numbers in a tough situation in Pittsburgh; Grant had not. Hope was more consistent in the tackle column and often praised as an underrated player by his peers. Grant was never a big tackle producer and many observers wondered why he didn't get more out of his talent at either of his earlier stops in the NFL. Although taking Grant late didn't hurt anyone - he still was worthy of a roster spot, spending that draft pick on Chris Harris, whose story read much more like Hope's than Grant's did, would have been a much wiser investment. Read the story you've written. If it doesn't make sense, choose a different adventure.
Don't Lust After Last Season's Sexy Breakout Defensive End
Mark Anderson and Bobby McCray exploded onto the scene in 2006 as part time pass rushers that put up gaudy sack numbers in limited duty. Both players were promoted to an every down role during the preseason and were highly sought after commodities in leagues this year, Anderson in particular. And both were among the biggest busts of the year in IDP leagues. What went wrong? While it may be too soon to give up on Anderson in the long term, both of these players showed just how difficult it is to rush the passer when the offensive line focuses on you on clear passing downs and your legs aren't fresh after playing the run on every other down. Elvis Dumervil was the slight exception to this rule, but nearly half of his games were lineup killers this season. Before taking a chance on a player like Greg White or Brian Robison next year, stop and consider how well those players will hold up taking 50 snaps a game and playing the run. Be very careful before taking them as your DL1, as some did with Anderson in 2007.
Stunts
Those of you looking for an edge in Week 17 should be moving on Richard Marshall, Chris Kelsay, Alex Brown, Nedu Ndukwe, Randall Godfrey, Stewart Bradley and/or Nick Griesen. Marshall is getting more and more playing time as John Fox loosens his "vets over youngsters" lineup philosophy. Kelsay is getting the bulk of the snaps with Ryan Denney on IR now. Brown has supplanted Mark Anderson in the starting lineup and has fresher legs than any other established pass rusher in the league. Ndukwe has been a playmaker in limited time and a sure tackler and he looks like the prohibitive favorite to take over one safety spot in 2008. Godfrey got the bulk of the playing time at WLB last week in Rocky McIntosh's absence and performed well. Bradley took over Takeo Spikes' every down role in the Philly defense and will move into the MLB spot this week if Omar Gaither can't return from a quad injury. Finally, steady tackling Nick Griesen racked up tackles with Ray Lewis out in Baltimore and could do so again against Pittsburgh this week.
Congratulations to those who earned league championships last week and best of luck to those who are have Week 17 playoff games. If you've made it this far with us, make sure you're watching the IDP discussion forum and FBG blog for all the latest offseason news and analysis of the defensive side of the ball. And don't forget to check out our free podcasts as we're planning a full schedule of offseason coverage on The Audible. Thanks for reading this season.
Have a terminology or scheme question you'd like to see broken down? Wondering how a particular player is being used by his team and how his responsibilities will affect his IDP value? Send your questions to Bramel@Footballguys.com and we'll answer them in our Mailbag section.
