Reading the Defense - Week 16

  Posted 12/19 by Jene Bramel, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

Driving Your Own Bandwagon: Thoughts on Scouting IDPs

Veteran IDP owners often note, and newbie owners quickly come to realize, that there is no offseason in IDP leagues. In fact, many of us find the offseason as enjoyable as the NFL regular season and look forward to considering how coaching and scheme changes, free agent movement and the incoming rookie class will affect the boxscore prospects of defensive players. This week, we're opening one man's IDP playbook to generate a primer of sorts for those looking ahead to 2008. Finding well-hyped rookies like Patrick Willis and LaRon Landry isn't too difficult, although it is important to know when not to buy into the hype. Correctly teasing out players like David Harris and Freddie Keiaho ahead of your competition, on the other hand, wins games.

1. College Game Tape/Individual Highlight Compilations
   Let's face facts. There aren't many Sigmund Blooms among us. For most, reading Sig's commentary (and that of Cecil Lammey and Sean Baca among others) at NFLDraftGuys.com and lurking on the FBG discussion boards from January to late April will provide you with more in-depth information than you're likely to be able to digest. For those who are fans of college football and want to be able to tease out some information from these sources yourself, there are important things that can be gleaned from television broadcasts and highlight compilations.
   
   In general, be wary of the overall picture a player presents. The speed and overall talent of the college game is much different than that of the NFL, and a player who looks like he's "everywhere" during a college game may be benefiting more from inferior competition and raw athletic ability than football skills that will translate at any level of play. So, while many of those "everywhere" college studs will have the ability to play on Sunday, you should consider whether it was talent or situation that made them successful. Watch a player's hands and footwork. A linemen who understands how to use his hands and leverage his hips (body lean off the edge) or get under the pads of an interior lineman and shed blocks will often translate better than a raw speed rusher who doesn't take the correct angle and gets by on speed alone or a linebacker who runs around blocks. Those players may be successful in college, but never make a play in the NFL. Form tackling and explosiveness at the ball translate at every level. Instincts around the ball in pass coverage often translate well, while recovery speed in college and the NFL are often vastly different. You can also get some idea of how well a corner uses his feet at the snap on some telecasts.
   
   
2. College statistics
   John Norton is a big fan of using stat lines to complement scouting reports. This approach has grown on me over the years, especially with respect to linebackers. Norton feels that a player who consistently puts up big tackle numbers, especially over multiple seasons, has proven that he knows how to get to the ball and may have some intangibles that won't show up on a scouting report. It doesn't always work, but it's not hard to forget about the times you mistakenly draft Robert McCune late when the same thought process helps you to identify Kirk Morrison. The same "production over scouting blemish" argument worked well for those who owned Dwight Freeney earlier in his career or Elvis Dumervil. Don't fall in love with a prospect solely on his college statistics, but ignore an amazingly productive college player who is a little small or slow at your own risk.
   
   
3. Professional Scouting Services
   Whether your choose to follow our trusted sources at NFLDraftGuys.com or another of the many collegiate scouting services available on the web or in print, there are certain buzzwords and phrases that should catch your eye. Again, you're looking for translatable skills. Raw athletic ability is nice, but it's often a tease. Everybody in the NFL is athletic. Many a draft pick who had the size or speed "you can't teach" couldn't be coached up enough to play after college. Players that hold high grades may be woefully lacking in these buzzwords and carry huge red flags. And you'll often see players with mid-round grades whose scouting reports are filled with the right catch phrases. Put those players in the right scheme and a chance at playing time and you have a potential fifth round sleeper - see Freddy Keiaho, Gibril Wilson, among others. By position, here's what you want to read in a prospect's scouting report.

   Defensive End/Tackle

   • Quick first step/Gets off the ball quickly/Powerful burst at the snap
     A quick first step earns a lineman a fraction of a second head start on an offensive lineman. A powerful first step is the first step at delivering the first blow and gaining leverage. An edge rushing prospect can't succeed without a consistently explosive first step. A bull rusher or 3-technique defensive tackle won't survive without explosiveness off the ball.
   • Consistently gains leverage/Good body lean/Can't be moved at the point of attack/Holds ground against double teams
     Unless a potential prospect is so explosive and quick that an offensive lineman cannot get his hands on him, some understanding of how to gain leverage is a must. A defensive lineman who cannot anchor his lower body or keep a good pad level will get moved off the ball in pass rush and run support and, finally, to the bench or waiver lists. A defensive lineman whose scouting reports suggests both explosiveness and an ability to leverage is a potential two-way threat in the boxscore - tackles in run support and sacks from a solid pass rush. That consistency is the key to an IDP stud - see Jared Allen and Aaron Kampman.
   • Controls blockers with strong hands/Keeps linemen away from his body/Sheds blocks easily
     The lower body leverage highlighted in the last group of buzzwords is important, but the strength and ability to control a blocker with your hands also separates the better all-around linemen from their one trick brethren.
   • Elite closing speed/Explodes through the quarterback
     Sign of a stud big play lineman in the making. Consider the difference in stat lines between a guy like Kyle Vanden Bosch, who has been in the top five for three straight seasons in quarterback hits but hasn't generated many sacks in the past two years, and Jared Allen (or Robert Mathis), who nearly always finish the play and often cause a fumble with the sack.
   • Wide array of pass rush moves
     Even the best edge rusher can be neutralized by a decent offensive tackle with a little help if the offensive line knows what's coming on every play. Developing an array of spin moves, rips, bull rushes and an ability to disguise stunts goes a long way to keeping the pass rush fresh and the boxscore numbers consistent.
     Relentless in pursuit/Never quits on a play/Fights to the whistle/High motor
     Some read these phrases as indicative of a guy who doesn't have the talent to succeed and relies on guts to make plays. While it may be true that some of these "try hard" players don't have the ability to make it, it's never a bad thing to see these notes in the scouting report and it's a serious red flag to find the opposite note on a prospect.
     
     
   Linebacker
   
   
   • Shows good quickness/Pursues well laterally/Sideline-to-sideline range
     The above phrases all suggest good playing speed. It's one thing to have a good 40 time, it's another thing entirely to get to the hole quickly or elude a blocker and still make a play in pursuit.
   • Shows good instincts/Takes good angles to the ball/Always in position to make the play
     Again, raw speed and athletic ability are helpful, but a linebacker has to have the innate instincts to put himself in position to make plays. Taking the right angle and diagnosing the correct play and filling the correct gap are effectively worth a half-step in NFL terms. Guys like DeMeco Ryans and Paul Posluszny and David Harris fall to the second round and later because their raw measurables aren't as good as some of their draftmates. But their playing instincts often make them better linebackers. Since the skill set of a linebacker is more closely tied to their boxscore production than any other IDP position, these catch phrases become doubly important.
   • Controlled aggression/Good acceleration to the play/Explodes into tackle
     The very best NFL linebackers play at a high, but controlled, speed but seem to have an extra gear and aggressively finish plays. They seemingly come out of nowhere to blow up a running play or close down a screen pass. Like the closing speed of an elite edge rusher, this ability is the difference between a steady tackling Gary Brackett and a big play producing Ray Lewis.
   • Wraps ballcarriers well/Tackles through ballcarrier/Does not reach and grab to tackle
     Missed tackles kill defenses and cost IDP owners in the boxscores. Prospects who don't understand or aren't willing to tackle fundamentally and securely won't last long in the lineup.
   • Uses hands well/Sheds blockers easily/Frequently tips balls in the passing lanes/Converts tipped passes into interceptions
     Like their defensive line teammates, better linebackers know how to control bigger blockers and shed to make tackles. These skills are especially important for 3-4 inside linebackers and 4-3 middle linebackers.
   • Fluid in pass coverage/Able to turn hips and run with receiver/Instinctive in zone coverage/Understands passing lanes and anticipates the pass
     With the ever-increasing number of multiple receiver sets and pass catching tight ends, a linebacker has to have some coverage skill to stay on the field on every down. With as many as 40% of the defensive snaps coming in nickel packages in some games, a linebacker who can't cover won't be a worthwhile IDP option in standard leagues. Conversely, a linebacker who can add multiple passes defended and interceptions can separate himself from the huge tier of 85-95 solo tackle players.
   
   Defensive Back
   
   
   • Good footwork/Keeps feet underneath his body/Changes direction easily/Fluid hip turn
     These traits are often the difference between an elite cornerback and an average player. Recovery speed and ball skills are nice, but relying on them too much is a recipe for disaster. A solid technical foundation will almost always lead to a solid NFL talent.
   • Shows good anticipation/Breaks on the ball quickly/Reads pass routes well
     Corners and safeties with the instincts to read pass routes quickly and break on the ball have the potential to become big play options. Some do it instinctively, others know how to read the "tells" a receiver shows in his route running (a lean or, inconsistent footwork between routes). Defensive backs that have good hands to go with an ability to sniff out pass routes are the most likely to generate consistent interception numbers.
   • Elite recovery speed/Recovers well when beaten/Closes quickly on routes
     Like the note on linebackers above, straight line speed is a nice skill for a corner to have, but the real test on Sundays is how well a DB recovers when beaten or takes a false step and closes quickly to make plays. Be on the lookout for buzzwords that suggest a defensive back's playing speed is as good as his 40 time.
   • Plays the ball well/Has the hands to make plays in coverage/Excellent ball awareness
     Corners and safeties must be able to tackle to have consistent value in IDP leagues, but a good combination of anticipation and ball skills is also essential. An understanding of his position on the field and when to turn and play the ball separates a good defensive back from the elite.
   • Moves quickly to support the run/Recognizes play action well/Willing to support the run aggressively
     The ability to play the run and not get caught out of position on play action and other running plays may not be the most important skill for a defensive back, but it is vitally important to the boxscore value of a player in an IDP league. Understanding how to quickly and correctly determine run-pass keys and a willingness to play the run is the difference between a consistent IDP DB and an erratic, replacement level player.
     
     
4. Offseason coaching comments
   Coaches often rave about their incoming draft picks during minicamps, OTAs and early training camp practices. The local media will pick up on any comment and write glowing fluff pieces to fill space during slow news cycles. The trick is to learn to separate the fluff from those comments that often predict a stud defender in the making. Temper your enthusiasm about stories and comments that suggest a rookie is dominating in practice or looks quick in drills. The offseason comments that tend to be the most predictive of regular season success are those praising a player's instincts and football intelligence. A guy that has quickly picked up the playbook, shown the ability to learn multiple positions, quickly grasps where he is supposed to align and understands his defensive responsibilities, looks comfortable in the huddle and takes charge of the playcalling duties or plays faster than expected, for example, are guys that can translate the draft hype into on-field production.
   
   
5. Preseason games
   In most cases, it's probably best to ignore preseason games. The waiver wire is full of rookies that "dominated" a preseason game, but couldn't hack it during the regular season. But there is plenty of value in watching these games. Without being results oriented (i.e. Player X had seven tackles in a little more than two quarters of playing time or has an interception in every preseason game), you can get some idea of whether a player has the skills you've read about in his scouting report. If a player looks good with the first string, then looks like the best player on the field when the twos start to trickle into the lineups, it's an excellent sign that he has the playing speed to succeed. Explosiveness, tackling, getting in the correct position to make plays and athleticism are all easy to spot during the preseason and translate regardless of the level of competition. Pay particular attention to whether a rookie linebacker is being used in nickel packages and how well he plays in sub-packages. Look for potential changes to a team's scheme and how they use player in the base defense. If you see a team using a safety in the box as an extra nickel linebacker or trying out multiple fronts, those are important things to file away in your memory banks. Teams will often try new things in midseason after a rash of injuries or inconsistent play.
   
   
6. Consider scheme/surrounding cast
   Once you've got a handle on whether a player has the raw skills that will translate into a starting role in the NFL, your understanding of each team's scheme, defensive philosophy and skill of the surrounding cast will help you decide whether or not that player will have enough opportunity to produce in the boxscores. Closely examine depth charts to see if a player is likely to land in a favorable role immediately or could in the future if injuries or average play from a veteran warrants a change. Use your knowledge of which roles in each type of scheme will provide the most opportunity. Target those players with the best skill sets in the best roles for stat production.

Summary

Let's consider a couple of examples over the past two seasons.

By August, nearly every IDP owner paying some attention in during the 2006 offseason knew that DeMeco Ryans, who had just been named the starting MLB in Houston, was just as likely as Ernie Sims to have the most tackles as a rookie. If you had been reading the scouting reports, correctly interpreting coaching comments during minicamp and tracking the Texan depth chart through the offseason, you would have seen the signs that Ryans position change was coming as early as June. And you would have known to target him specifically in your rookie drafts while others were grabbing Chad Greenway. Every scouting report had Ryans in the second tier of linebacker prospects but all praised his instincts and football IQ. Ryans immediately had his coaches praising his understanding of the playbook and challenging him to learn multiple positions. He was getting snaps behind two unstable and injury prone veterans in OTAs. It was clear that he would have big opportunity because of the relatively weak Texan supporting cast no matter where he played. He was routinely available in rookie drafts in the mid second round or later as the fourth linebacker off the board into the summer, but represented huge value in comparison to the others who went before him.

A similar situation occurred with the Jets' David Harris this offseason. Harris was criticized early in the predraft process as not quick or athletic enough, especially in coverage, to have an every down role in the NFL. His 40 time generated some buzz, but many still considered him a second level prospect. In reality, Harris had impressed many with his athleticism and playing speed at the combine and was moving up on a number of smart team's draft boards, most notably the New England Patriots, who rarely target linebackers early and are require smart, flexible and versatile talent in their multiple front defense. After the draft, Harris was getting high praise for his instincts and the Jets were reportedly pleased enough with his play in coverage to use him in nickel situations during the preseason games. And Harris had only Eric Barton, who the Jets were actively trying to get rid of in the offseason, ahead of him. It took longer for Harris to crack the lineup than Ryans, but he was available much later in most rookie drafts and dropped in many leagues, dynasty and redraft, after he started the season as a part time player. In some cases, owners had two chances to stash him on their rosters before he broke out.

Again, you won't hit on every decision you make. But it doesn't take many DeMeco Ryans, David Harris, Omar Gaither, Freddy Keiaho, Madieu Williams, Bob Sanders type finds to justify the Alfred Fincher, James Anderson and Aaron Rouse (maybe) type missteps.

Stunts

Strangely, those in championship games this weekend will need to bench arguably the preseason top two ranked linebackers, DeMeco Ryans and Keith Bulluck. Bulluck, who has struggled to overcome poor opportunity and was probably too risky to play right now anyway, now has a knee injury that will limit his range, if not keep him out of the game altogether. Although it's not good news, Ryans' owners now have a formal diagnosis for the knee bruise that has clearly slowed him over the past two games. Ryans has a torn PCL, which will limit his mobility for the rest of the year, and suffered an ankle sprain last week to add yet another limiting factor. Ryans wants to play out the season rather than shut it down, but admits he's not able to do everything he usually can. It's just not a risk worth taking if you have any other reasonable option. David Thornton and Morlon Greenwood gets significant upgrades whether or not their more established teammates take the field.

Another solid MLB, Omar Gaither, may also see his momentum slowed over the final two weeks. With WLB Takeo Spikes possibly out with a rotator cuff injury, the Eagles are contemplating inserting rookie Stewart Bradley in the middle and moving Gaither outside. While Spikes may play through the injury and there are roster options that could keep Gaither in the middle, owners need to prepare for Bradley's debut. The matchup against New Orleans has been a favorable one, so whoever plays the middle could be a nice play this week. Even more interesting, however, is the potential implication for dynasty owners. Bradley was widely considered an OLB by most observers and the news that the Eagles see him as a potential option in the middle puts the future of Gaither (and Bradley) in doubt. With Takeo Spikes the least likely of the current starters to be with Philadelphia long term, dynasty owners need to watch the news out of Philadelphia closely this week and during the offseason.

Credit should go to John Norton for closely watching the Redskins game two weeks ago and picking up on the change in role that the Redskins had given safety LaRon Landry. After playing a lot of Tampa-2 during the first three weeks after Sean Taylor's PCL injury and subsequent tragic death, the Redskins moved Landry into Taylor's old roving deep FS role two weeks ago. The gamebooks didn't reflect that - listing Reed Doughty at FS and Landry at SS - and the local media didn't report it until late last week. Those of you familiar with Taylor's role knew to expect the big momentum Landry had generated in tackle heavy league to come to a screeching halt. And it has. Landry, who had averaged nearly six solos over the previous seven games, has had only five in the past two. Reed Doughty, on the other hand, has twelve solos. Landry may yet grow into an option in big play leagues, as he showed similar range to Taylor last week against the Giants, but will need to hold onto the potential interceptions he puts himself in position to grab. For now, if/until the Redskins find another player to assume some of the coverage responsibilities, Landry is only a slightly more attractive version of Ed Reed and less attractive version of Taylor in most leagues. Use Doughty if you're in a pinch, but it's best to leave Landry on the bench in your title games.

We may get a look at yet another young linebacker this week, as Washington's H.B. Blades could get a shot at extended playing time after WLB Rocky McIntosh suffered a torn ACL/MCL last week. The Redskins have multiple options, though. They rotated Blades and Khary Campbell last week and could also get veteran Randall Godfrey back from injury. Blades isn't safe enough to use in a title game, but will be worth watching to see if he can handle an every down role in 2008 as McIntosh probably won't be fully healthy until midseason if not later.

Dynasty alert: Forgive the intrusion of more 2008 content during the all important championship week, but the "There is no offseason in IDP leagues" adage still rules the day. At press time, Bill Parcells was about to accept an offer to take a front office position with the Atlanta Falcons. It's too early to speculate much, but Parcells will apparently be given authority to hire the new head coach and general manager. Parcells, who strongly favors the 3-4, will be staring two high profile head coaching candidates (Bill Cowher and Mike Singletary) with 3-4 experience in the eye. Expect to see some scheme changes and potential big changes in value for the Falcon defenders if the Parcells' dominoes fall.

Don't overreact to the team high tackle effort turned in by Cleveland ILB Andra Davis last week. The Browns used Davis in some nickel situations for the first time this year and continued to give him the bulk of the base defensive snaps. There's nothing wrong with Leon Williams; it's likely that the Browns felt that Davis' plugger style fit the weather better than the more athletic Williams. With the Browns facing a Cincinnati team that uses plenty of multiple wide receiver sets, expect Williams to again be the best tackling option among the Browns linebackers.

We've pimped Miami safeties Lance Schulters and Jason Allen as solid options over the last month. After watching the Miami replacements for Zach Thomas and Channing Crowder (Donnie Spragan and Derrick Pope) last week, it's clear that the safeties will continue to get plenty of opportunity. Both make good starts against the Patriots this week.

In yet another change of fortune in New England, Bill Belichick continues to make it impossible to predict which ILB will hold reasonable IDP value. Initially, it appeared that Junior Seau would play LILB and get the bulk of the nickel snaps after the injury to Rosie Colvin. Instead it was Tedy Bruschi on the strong side and staying on the field in the nickel and his stat lines looked sustainable. Last week, Bruschi sat nearly 1/3 of the snaps as Seau took the bulk of the 4-3 snaps and nickel snaps. Only Belichick knows what will happen against the Dolphins this week. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me 47 times, well, you know the rest.

Cowboy safety Roy Williams was suspended for this week's game against the Panthers for yet another violation of the horse collar tackle rule. The Panthers would have been one of the few matchups that Williams could have been useful, so it's a disappointing end of the season for his owners. With backup Keith Davis moving into the lineup, expect Ken Hamlin to add one more big game to his Pro Bowl season stat lines.

With Shawne Merriman out last week, Ted Cottrell went back to the coverage first gameplan he had used earlier in the season. Whether it was game texture related - the Chargers quickly jumped out to a monster lead - or a sign of things to come is difficult to say. Shaun Phillips owners in big play leagues should hope it was just a one game blip.

Richard Marshall and Charles Johnson both got extended playing time for the Panthers last week. Fourth corner Patrick Dendy was listed as the starting CB alongside Ken Lucas, but Marshall got more snaps in the base defense than he has all year with Chris Gamble active. It may also be a sign of things to come on the defensive line with Johnson active and Stanley McClover inactive. Keep an eye on both as John Fox may finally be easing his preference for veteran players.

Remember to catch all the latest news on our weekly Thursday IDP podcast available from the podcast button on the front page of the FBG website. Best of luck to those still in the playoffs this week.

Have a terminology or scheme question you'd like to see broken down? Wondering how a particular player is being used by his team and how his responsibilities will affect his IDP value? Send your questions to Bramel@Footballguys.com and we'll answer them in our Mailbag section.