Reading the Defense - Week 15

Posted 12/12 by Jene Bramel, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

Here's hoping most of you advanced in your playoff bracket this weekend and can keep the momentum going toward championship week. This week, we'll continue our look ahead to 2008 in the headline section with a rundown of the major IDPs who can become free agents this offseason and consider the potential ripple effects should they change teams. We'll also try to take a look into the crystal ball and forecast potential scheme and coaching changes. Next week, we'll take an in-depth look at scouting incoming rookie prospects and then finish the 2007 season with our annual "What Have You Learned This Year" column in Week 17. Those of you still alive in the playoffs will find the usual news and notes from last week in the Stunts section below.

Free Agent Tracker

As we said last week, there is no offseason for most IDP owners. There are three major offseason phases worth following closely - coaching and scheme changes, free agency movement and the entry draft. Each one is interesting, but the movement of stud IDPs from team to team often gets overlooked. Consider the case of Cato June this year. After three years as a steady LB2 option in Indianapolis, June moved to Tampa Bay as an unrestricted free agent. Many outlets saw June move from Tampa-2 scheme to Tampa-2 scheme and figured his production would stay the same. Those who followed the move closely knew that June would have an entirely different role in Tampa and correctly avoided him (or dealt him) for 2007. Similar arguments for a change in value could have been made for Donnie Edwards, Ken Hamlin and Michael Lewis. So let's get a head start on next year's group and identify any potential trouble spots or upside in the making.

DL Jared Allen (KC) - The Chiefs elected not to pursue a long-term deal with Allen last offseason, due to concerns about Allen's off-field issues and early season suspension. They have every intention of signing Allen this offseason and will likely franchise him if a deal isn't reached by the tag deadline.
DL Justin Smith (CIN) - The Bengals find themselves in a very similar situation with Smith as they were last offseason. Overpay for a steady, but not spectacular, player in an inflated market, franchise him or let their two-way anchor leave as an UFA. With no one waiting in the wings (again) and the cap situation unclear, Smith's situation is again in limbo. Smith has never been a stud pass rusher, but could approach double digit sacks with the right surrounding cast. He's worth watching this offseason.
DL Marques Douglas (SF) - Douglas is a Mike Nolan favorite and could remain a Niner. But with the ever-increasing number of teams using at least some 3-4 looks, Douglas could be in high demand. His IDP value is dependent on what kind of 3-4 scheme he joins. If he changes teams, but stays in an aggressive slant scheme within the Wade Phillips coaching tree, he should retain rosterable value. If not, all bets are off.
DT Albert Haynesworth (TEN) - Haynesworth had an argument to be named the Defensive Player of the Year before missing most of the last month with a hamstring injury, and still may. Awards aside, Haynesworth is sure to be the most watched defensive free agent of the coming offseason. Will the Titans make a major push to bring him back? Will they put the franchise tag on him if they can't reach a deal by the deadline? If not, which team and how much money will a team pay for a guy with a history of character issues who's having a career season in a contract year. Haynesworth's value should remain the same regardless of where he lands, but he could change the value of a number of linebackers should he change teams.
LB Tedy Bruschi/Junior Seau (NE) - Both Patriot inside linebackers are unrestricted free agents and both have lost at least a half-step in recent seasons. New England has Adalius Thomas to play one inside linebacker spot, but may have to look elsewhere in free agency (or the draft) to upgrade the other spot. It'll be interesting to see what happens at this position in March.
LB Michael Boley (ATL - RFA) - The Falcons are actively working on a contract extension with Boley, who elevated his game for a third straight season this year. If the deal isn't done, expect the team to tender Boley at a very high level as a restricted free agent. Boley's role, and IDP value, isn't likely to change much in 2008.
LB Lance Briggs (CHI) - Who knows what to expect with Briggs this offseason? Briggs clearly wanted out of Chicago last offseason, only to later say he'd like to remain a Bear and was reportedly close to an extension midseason. Briggs would have the most value in his usual WLB role in Lovie Smith's aggressive Tampa-2 scheme, but could succeed if he lands in a good position elsewhere. Should Briggs leave, either Jamar Williams or Michael Okwo immediately become viable IDP options.
LB Karlos Dansby (ARI) - When healthy, Dansby has been a solid IDP option. The Cardinals would like to have him back, but have yet to lock him up to a long-term extension. Dansby's situation has been much quieter than that of Lance Briggs, but the 2008 implications for the Cardinals and your IDP roster are just as important. Both linebackers could see their value take Cato June-like turns next year.
LB Clark Haggans (PIT) - Haggans obviously isn't a target in IDP leagues, but his backup Lamarr Woodley would be if the Steelers elect not to re-sign Haggans. Woodley was the more impressive of Pittsburgh's rookie linebackers this season before struggling with nagging injuries late. He and James Harrison have an excellent chance to be the next Lloyd/Greene or Brown/Gildon for the Steelers in coming seasons. Woodley makes a very nice buy low candidate in big play leagues right now.
LB Landon Johnson (CIN) - Johnson doesn't have the size or big play ability of many of the better IDP options, but he is an underrated all-around linebacker who is much better than a number of the league's current starters. The Bengals didn't tender him very highly in RFA last season and may elect not to match a big contract if Johnson can get it elsewhere. This probably isn't a Will Witherspoon situation in the making, but worth watching nonetheless.
LB Calvin Pace (ARI) - Pace is one of the most intriguing players on the market. The primary question facing his prospective suitors will be whether to believe that the 2007 version of Calvin Pace (an active, all-around OLB/DE with a knack for making a big play) is the real deal or whether Pace's surprise increase in production was contract year related. IDP owners should strongly consider selling high on Pace, who looks an awful lot like the Jets' Bryan Thomas this time last season.
LB/DE Terrell Suggs (BAL) - Most of the defensive line buzz thus far has been around Jared Allen and Albert Haynesworth. But Suggs may be more talented than both. Successful with his hand down or off the line of scrimmage as a 3-4 OLB with great closing speed and pursuit skills, Suggs doesn't have the look of a "Ravens system" player. Suggs has had trouble avoiding nagging injury, but still has the talent to be a major factor as an every down defensive lineman in the right situation.
LB Demorrio Williams (ATL) - Williams will need to land in a perfect role next year (Tampa-2 WLB?) to have any additional IDP value, but stranger things have happened.
S Bob Sanders (IND) - Sanders isn't officially an UFA yet, but should be able to void the remaining years of his contract as teammate Dwight Freeney did last offseason. Sanders isn't going anywhere, but warrants mentioning since he'll be discussed often during the free agent period.
S Madieu Williams (CIN) - Williams has been one of the steadier free safeties in IDP circles in recent years with his ability to cover, support the run and blitz. The Bengals have never re-signed one of their free safeties in free agency, no matter how talented (i.e. Darryl Williams) they may have been. With Chinedum Ndukwe waiting in the wings, expect Williams to be elsewhere next year with his IDP value in the balance.
S Gibril Wilson (NYG) - Wilson went from rotating with Will Demps and James Butler in minicamp to playing at a Pro Bowl level in defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo's aggressive scheme. The Giants have never seemed very enamored with his play, though, so anything is possible this offseason. Michael Johnson, the team's 2007 seventh round pick has gotten valuable playing time due to injuries to both starters and could make Wilson expendable. Like Madieu Williams, Wilson's future value is tied to his role if he changes teams. He's probably safer than Williams, but still should be watched closely.

Potential Coaching Movement and Scheme Trends

This time last season, it was widely held that only a couple of head coaches would lose their jobs. When the dust settled, however, seven teams had changed head coaches and even more had changed their defensive coordinators and philosophy. This season looked to be headed down a similar path. Brian Billick is firmly on the hot seat and Joe Gibbs and John Fox may not be comfortable, but the rest of the league looked safe - until Atlanta head coach Bobby Petrino re-signed today. The defensive coordinator fraternity also looks relatively safe. Dom Capers and Jim Bates may not return and either Ryan brother could be a head coaching candidate, but there aren't any other obvious up-and-coming head coaching candidates among the defensive coordinator group with Ron Rivera still rehabbing his image after last year's lateral move out of Chicago.

The hottest defensive trend in the league is the desire of many defensive coordinators to become as flexible as possible to keep pace with the continued rise in the number of spread offensive sets. The Cardinals, among other teams, became a multiple front defense this season and have performed well. Many of the Tampa-2 clubs are using more man coverage than in recent years (e.g. CHI and MIN). Teams who have not used much Tampa-2 are working it into their playbooks (e.g. WAS). Defensive coordinators are also using more personnel than in recent memory, using packages that resemble a baseball platoon in many ways. Linebacker platoons in the nickel and base defense. More Big Nickel schemes with a third safety in the box. Moving a defensive end inside to tackle on passing downs. Freely substituting in hockey line fashion along the defensive line. IDP owners take note. Your every down studs will hold even more value in coming seasons if these trends become even more widespread.

Without many obvious coaching changes on the horizon and without a glut of hot defensive coordinators ready to assume head coaching positions, the recent increase in the number of teams adding the Tampa-2 or 3-4 scheme as their base defense may be slowing. Still, there have been indications that Tampa Bay and St. Louis may want to install more 3-4 fronts. The Bengals should remain in that discussion, too, after using some 3-4 at times in base defensive situations midseason.

Stunts

The Jets are again rotating their ILBs around. Eric Barton lost significant snaps to Brad Kassell this week. It will be interesting to see how things break out for David Harris if that rotation continues. The Jets continued to play Harris at SILB with Barton in the lineup, but Harris slid to WILB when Kassell was in the game. With Harris getting all the nickel and dime snaps and Kassell only a part time player, he'll still have solid value. Again, no reason to bench Harris by any stretch, but it's worth mentioning if Barton is benched altogether as the Week 16 matchup against Tennessee is one where the Jets may be in a base defense frequently. Should those dominoes fall, Harris may end up in a slightly less favorable role.

The safety situation in New Orleans remains unclear. Strong safety Roman Harper, who was expected to lose snaps to Kevin Kaesviharn last week, ended up playing every down after starting free safety Josh Bullocks was a late scratch due to a quad injury suffered in pregame warm-ups. Both Harper and Kaesviharn played well. With no word yet on Bullocks' status for the week, it's difficult to project how many snaps each may get this week. Consider other options if you have them this week unless Bullocks isn't healthy enough to play.

Although there wouldn't be much change in the fantasy value of the San Francisco defenders, don't be too concerned about the Niners extensive use of a 4-3 defense last week. San Francisco wanted to get as many big bodies on the line as possible to defend the Minnesota rushing attack. Expect the Niners to return to their usual 3-4 base defense this week.

While owners of Shawne Merriman are disappointed at the extremely poor timing of the knee injury he suffered last week, they may be able to get an above-average week from his likely replacement, Marques Harris. Harris has been effective filling in for both Merriman and Shaun Phillips in the past and gets a very juicy matchup against the Lions this week. He's not as desperate a play as he may seem.

As expected, Minnesota gave rookie defensive end Brian Robison the bulk of the snaps at defensive end last week after losing Ray Edwards to suspension and Erasmus James to injured reserve. Robison held up well, posting five total tackles, and gets another good matchup against the Bears at home this week. He makes a nice boom-bust start if you're a big underdog to a playoff juggernaut.

It's hard to argue against the production of Buccaneer DE Greg White, who has racked up six sacks in his last four games. White gets the benefit of two more great matchups in Week 15 (ATL) and 16 (SF) to round out the playoffs in most leagues and should finish strongly. If he continues his torrid pace, however, dynasty leaguers need to consider selling high this offseason. White is averaging only one solo tackle per game (subtracting his sacks) over that four game stretch. Most consistent IDP defensive linemen average at least 30 solo tackles less sacks per season and the best options average over 40. White could improve his stat lines and may continue to be a viable big play option in 2008, but the odds would appear to be against him.

We made the argument that Philadelphia DE Trent Cole was a risky start down the stretch after it appeared his pass rush production was tailing off in the second half again this season. Cole has turned it back on over the past two weeks, notching three sacks, and may be back to form. Unfortunately, his upcoming matchups against Dallas and New Orleans leave him a risky proposition. It's still a good idea to consider other options if you have them.

Remember to catch all the latest news on our weekly Thursday IDP podcast available from the podcast button on the front page of the FBG website. Best of luck to those still in the playoffs this week.

Have a terminology or scheme question you'd like to see broken down? Wondering how a particular player is being used by his team and how his responsibilities will affect his IDP value? Send your questions to Bramel@Footballguys.com and we'll answer them in our Mailbag section.