Reading the Defense - Week 13
Posted 11/28 by Jene Bramel, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
Dynasty Watch 2008: Safeties
We'll finish our position-by-position look at players who could have a much bigger impact in IDP leagues in 2008 with the safety position. Stashing the right player in a dynasty league before your waiver deadline this year can, in effect, earn you an extra mid round draft pick for next season.
Chinedum Ndukwe/Marvin White (CIN) - White, the Bengals' fourth round draft pick this year, was praised as an athletic, hard hitting strong safety talent and looked to be the odds-on favorite to inherit what IDP value the Cincinnati safety position could provide. Instead, seventh rounder Nedu Ndukwe has made his mark with multiple big plays and a role as a hybrid nickel safety-linebacker. The team loves what Ndukwe has provided and could move him into the lineup in a larger role in 2008.
Eric Weddle (SD) - Weddle hasn't been able to move Clinton Hart or Marlon McCree out of the Charger lineup this year, to the disappointment of his dynasty owners. Weddle has been productive in the nickel and dime packages, though, and should claim a larger role in 2008. He'll have to prove he can be physical enough in the box to generate DB2+ value, but he's worth rostering if he's been given up on by an impatient owner in your league.
Daren Stone (ATL) - Lawyer Milloy has finally started to show cracks in his game after a long and productive career. The Falcons haven't gotten the play they've expected from veteran Chris Crocker or second year player Jimmy Williams. Stone, a small school standout, has excellent size (6'3", 212) and the skill set to become a starting SS. Stone could be the Atari Bigby of 2008, unexpectedly rising into a great situation and every week starting IDP value.
Kevin Payne/Josh Gattis (CHI) -The Bear safety corps has been in flux due to injury and questionable play for two seasons. Payne, a fifth round draft pick this year, and Gattis, who was claimed off waivers from Jacksonville, might have a shot to earn extensive playing time in 2008. With both starting corners signed and Trumaine McBride impressing, the young hopefuls will have to contend with Danieal Manning as well as current SS Adam Archuleta. These guys are deep on the list of those worth observing, but keep both names in your memory banks this offseason.
Aaron Rouse (GB) - Don't give up on Rouse yet. Atari Bigby was very impressive during camp and continued his strong play into the regular season, but has been a significant liability in coverage. Rouse doesn't fit the profile of a great cover strong safety either, but has two picks and four passes defended in four games replacing injured FS Nick Collins. Rouse doesn't have a clear path to a starting role next year, but bears watching this offseason.
Michael Johnson (NYG) - Johnson has already started to see action in rotation with James Butler at strong safety. Butler hasn't been particularly impressive after claiming the role in camp and the Giants were trying to find ways to get Johnson into the lineup during training camp, when he was part of a four man rotation/competition for playing time with Butler, Gibril Wilson and Will Demps. Wilson has taken to the FS role very well, but Johnson might have a Michael Lewis impact as an every down player if he can cut down on some of his mistakes in coverage and poor angles.
Marcus Paschal (PHI) - Paschal is nearly the only healthy backup safety on the Eagle roster right now. Sean Considine is out for the season with a shoulder injury, Quintin Mikell is laid up with a knee sprain and JR Reed was dinged last week as well. Mikell may have the inside track at the SS job in 2008 right now, but Paschal is an interesting talent and may be worth rostering in very deep leagues.
Dashon Goldson (SF) - Another deep league special, Goldson has been seeing time in nickel packages with current third safety Keith Lewis struggling to stay healthy. Starting FS Mark Roman hasn't been impressive again this year and the Niners haven't seen Lewis as a starter in the long term. Goldson could find his way toward more playing time in 2008.
Stunts
The Jaguars elected to move the more experienced Daryl Smith to MLB and insert Justin Durant at ROLB last week. The results were impressive. Durant wasted no time in establishing himself as a potential defensive force, making the first two tackles of the game and six in the first half alone. He also saw a significant number of nickel snaps and added an interception in the second half. Smith started slow, but had a nice second half, also finishing with eight solos. The jury is still out on which will be the more productive IDP force, but both may have LB2-3 value down the stretch.
After two so-so boxscore weeks, San Francisco MLB Patrick Willis made a convincing argument that he has begun to adjust to his hand injury and return to his prior fundamentally sound tackling form. It's possible that he had made the adjustment after Week 10 but didn't get enough opportunity in Week 11, when the Niner defensive line racked up the bulk of the team's solo tackles. Willis' owners should feel more than comfortable with him down the stretch.
There's been much discussion about Oakland WLB Thomas Howard on our message board over the past two weeks, with many of Howard's owners wondering what happened to the torrid production he had put up during the first weeks of the season. Howard, though he made 88 solos in 2006, has never been a very consistent tackler. Many of those 2006 tackles came downfield in pursuit and, with the improved play of Kirk Morrison and Michael Huff and the switch from a frequent Big Nickel scheme to the use of a SLB on base downs, Howard's tackle opportunity has decreased significantly. As colleague John Norton pointed out on our IDP podcast last week, the second best tackling backer on the team is very sensitive to the flow of the game. Since the bulk of Howard's early season production came from his contribution in coverage, that sensitivity will be even more pronounced. Howard remains a decent LB3 play, but he's far from the most consistent top 25 LB option.
The FBG collective has been pimping Carolina CB Richard Marshall for well over a year, arguing that it would be a matter of time before the Panthers would have to give in and play what looks to be their best all-around corner. With a thumb injury sidelining starter Chris Gamble last week, Marshall again made the most of his every down role with 13 total tackles. Most importantly, Marshall again proved his value in run support - six of his ten solos came against the run and most of them within five yards of the line of scrimmage. That kind of run support contribution is what keeps a corner a consistent week-to-week IDP option. The Panthers may send Marshall back to his nickel role if Gamble can play through the thumb problem but he's one of those rare talents that has to be rostered and patiently stashed away until his inevitable permanent rise to the starting role.
While Patriot OLB Rosie Colvin was not an every week IDP option, the foot injury that landed him on IR this week may prove to be the key that opens the vault to the IDP value of the New England roster. Expect Adalius Thomas, who never became comfortable inside, to move outside, whether the Pats choose to use more 4-3 looks or stick with the 3-4 front predominantly. He should have more value than he did at ILB, especially in big play scoring systems. If the Pats do use more 4-3, DE Jarvis Green again becomes an every week starter. But the player that stands to generate the most value is ILB Junior Seau. If the Pats stick with the 3-4, Seau becomes an every down player inside, where he's been very productive over the past 12 months. He's worth a flyer and could provide a big lift to those owners stuck by injury at LB.
Arizona CB Eric Green was put on IR this week, putting Antrel Rolle back in the starting lineup. Rolle has always been a willing tackler and his gambling nature leads to plenty of big plays. He is a must roster if available in CB specific leagues and a consideration in all IDP leagues. With Rod Hood playing at a near Pro Bowl level on the other side, Rolle should get picked on plenty despite his gaudy boxscore against the Bengals two weeks ago.
The Steelers are hopeful that Troy Polamalu will be able to return in Week 13, but it's still worth considering Tyrone Carter in the meantime. Carter's numbers were inflated by the crazy field situation last week, but he'll still be in a good position to make tackles while Polamalu is out. He's an even better sell high option if you can find a taker who's in desperate need of a DB in a must win to make the playoffs situation.
Remember to catch all the latest news on our weekly Thursday IDP podcast available from the Podcast button on the front page of the FBG website. Best of luck to those who are making a final playoff push this week.
Have a terminology or scheme question you'd like to see broken down? Wondering how a particular player is being used by his team and how his responsibilities will affect his IDP value? Send your questions to Bramel@Footballguys.com and we'll answer them in our Mailbag section.
