Reading the Defense - Week 1

  Posted 9/5 by Jene Bramel, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

Welcome back to the second season of Reading the Defense. For those new to the column, RTD focuses on the impact defensive schemes and philosophies have on the stat lines of IDPs. Ever wonder why the best fantasy cornerbacks seem to come from teams that use Tampa-2 coverage? Confused about how to find the best defensive tackles - what is an undertackle anyway? Want to know why Cato June's value is likely to plummet in 2007? Want to learn how to anticipate defensive trends rather than react to them? This is the column for you.

We'll discuss all the usual IDP issues (injury replacements, emerging talent for dynasty leagues, etc), but we'll do it with a nuts-and-bolts, behind-the-numbers slant. Each week will highlight at least one major schematic or philosophical defensive concept in the headliners section. We'll then move around the league and examine the most important issues of the week in the quick-hitting Stunts section. Finally, RTD will try to get to some questions from the mailbag as often as possible.

With a few exceptions, many of the recommendations in this space worked nicely in 2006 and RTD will work hard to avoid the dreaded sophomore slump. If you missed the RTD Offseason Report, which reviewed all the coaching, philosophical and schematic changes that occurred since January, be sure to check it out to get caught up on all the issues we'll be watching closely this season. The offseason is behind us now, however, and it's time to open up the playbooks and work on improving our rosters for opening weekend and beyond.

Don't Fear the 3-4 Defense

Many IDP experts believe that you should ignore 3-4 inside linebackers altogether. Three defensive linemen aren't enough to keep blockers off these players, they argue, and only the studliest backers can overcome that disadvantage. Fortunately or unfortunately, depending on your point of view, those in the "cross the 3-4 ILB off your list" camp have a new poster boy for their argument - Jonathan Vilma. While there's no arguing that Vilma's value plummeted after the scheme change, projecting similar struggles onto other 3-4 backers as a default is asking for a berth in your league's Toilet Bowl.

Plenty of 3-4 ILBs have had LB2 or better IDP value in recent years. There have been 17 different player-seasons of 95 or more solo tackles produced by 3-4 ILB since 2002. Donnie Edwards, a waif of a linebacker at 225 pounds, has had three consecutive top five finishes in most leagues. At least two 3-4 ILBs finished in the top ten in every season since 2002, five in 2004 alone. How does a strategy of ignoring 3-4 ILBs sound now?

Skeptics will argue that it's too difficult to determine which ILB will have the best IDP value. As so often happens, however, a deeper look into the scheme, responsibility and the skill set of each player can guide you in the right direction. For simplicity's sake, there are two major philosophies of 3-4 defense in use today. One, most commonly used recently by Bill Parcells and modified by Bill Belichick, Dick LeBeau and Dom Capers, is a read-and-react scheme where the front seven is responsible for two gaps (Figure 1). Without a stud defensive line to force double teams, an ILB has to be both quick and strong enough to elude the bigger blocker and beat his teammates to the play regularly. The other school, adapted by Wade Phillips from his father and employed by his protégé's Mike Nolan, Greg Manusky and Ted Cottrell, is a much more aggressive scheme (Figure 2). In many ways, its one-gap style resembles a 4-3 across the front seven with the defensive linemen "slanted" a shade off the offensive lineman instead of head on.

It should come as no surprise that the aggressive Phillips philosophy has generated the vast majority of the 3-4 ILB studs over the years. In fact, in nine player-seasons since 2002, no RILB has made less than 99 solo tackles in a Phillips defense. That list includes some stud NFL talent (Donnie Edwards, Ray Lewis) but it also includes less flashy players (Keith Brooking) and even a replacement level talent or two. Why the RILB? The playbook figures tell the story. One common "slant" alignment has the NT slanted to the weak side. If the NT is good enough to engage the weak side guard, the RILB is relatively free to make plays. Couple that with the extra blockers the offense applies to the strong side anyway (FB and TE) and the RILB becomes the "tackle" position of this 3-4.

While the other 3-4 teams (Steelers most commonly) will slant their defensive lines at times and you still need to consider each player's nickel responsibility and talent, the Phillips teams are the ones to scout for IDP talent at ILB. Under this hypothesis, an every down linebacker with top talent in an aggressive 3-4 scheme is a potential stud. In 2007, that means that Patrick Willis could very well put up top ten numbers once he settles into life as an NFL LB. It also means that the situations in Dallas and San Diego warrant very close monitoring. For now, there are a number of issues with Matt Wilhelm, the presumptive Charger RILB. It remains unclear whether Wilhelm is assuredly an every down ILB, whether he's fully recovered from a calf injury, whether he can outperform talented LILB Stephen Cooper and whether Ted Cottrell will be as aggressive as Wade Phillips had been. In Dallas, RILB Akin Ayodele won't play in the nickel which will make LILB Bradie James the better option and a likely rare exception to the Phillips rule.

Stunts

With WLB Keith Ellison out for at least a month with a high ankle sprain, the Bills will give former safety Coy Wire extended playing time. Wire may have some up-and-down value depending on the matchup, but the ripple effect for Paul Posluszny is the real story here. Posluszny was finally named the starting MLB this week after a training camp battle with John DiGiorgio that was really never a battle. However, the starting nickel job was still in question. The team had been using whichever MLB was in the game in the nickel during the preseason, but had also spent all offseason praising Ellison's coverage skill. With Ellison out, Posluszny will play every down and should play well enough to keep Ellison from playing on passing downs when he returns from the ankle injury. We noted that history favors Willis as a potential top ten backer. Posluszny may be right behind him.

Barrett Ruud owners shouldn't fuss over Tampa Bay's signing of former Philadelphia MLB Jeremiah Trotter. While there's been evidence that the Bucs are looking to get more aggressive in the front seven after they significantly increased their blitz percentage last year and are considering using some 3-4 at times, Monte Kiffin is still a Tampa-2 believer at heart. Trotter has never been a great coverage backer and his knees are in no condition to be sprinting back to cover the deep middle zone on pass plays. Ruud may not have been able to crack the lineup with Shelton Quarles around, but Trotter doesn't have what it takes to keep him on the bench in 2007.

Although he has regressed significantly as a tackler and coverage safety, it might be worth taking yet another flier on Michael Boulware, who has little competition for the Texan SS job. Boulware may not find every week starter value, but a change of scenery could be enough to make Boulware a roster option again. If he flops again, he's an easy cut. If he explodes, you'll have to fight for him on the waiver wire.

The Titan front office apparently sees something in Ryan Fowler that many haven't in the past. After giving him a hefty contract in RFA, the Titans had more or less given the job to Fowler despite the "camp competition." Fowler was never anything special in Dallas and won't be an every down linebacker with Keith Bulluck and David Thornton around. There's not much value to be had. Stephen Tulloch may still be the long term answer here and should be held in deep dynasty leagues. Shallow dynasties and redrafts can move on for now.

Omar Gaither looked like an emerging option in all league formats after finally inheriting the job when the Eagles dumped Jeremiah Trotter. Interestingly, despite the offseason reports that he would be a nickel contributor, Gaither was sitting in favor of Chris Gocong in the third preseason game. It wouldn't be shocking to see Jim Johnson give Gocong some coverage snaps to coach him up, so don't be too concerned about starting Gaither. He should still have a LB3 floor this year.

Those who have been listening to our IDP Roundtable podcasts this offseason are already aware of this, but it warrants mentioning here as well. Cleveland LB Andra Davis will see his value drop significantly this year. He's already been taken off the field in favor of Leon Williams in the nickel packages and could struggle to get his starting job back when he returns from his ankle injury. Watch the injury reports very closely this week. Williams will be a stud play against Pittsburgh if Davis can't go and is a must roster before his breakout week.

The season-ending injury to LB Chike Okeafor may have been a blessing in disguise for LB Karlos Dansby. The Cardinals have no interest in moving Dansby outside in the 3-4 base defense despite his attractive skill set and Okeafor's replacement, Darryl Blackstock, has been slotted at SLB in the 4-3. That leaves Dansby in the very favorable position of having 3-4 RILB and 4-3 WLB responsibilities with a nice mix of pass rush and big play opportunity by design. If he can stay healthy, he looks like a lock for a great season. Sharks might try to move a guy like Andra Davis, Bart Scott or similar "name" player for Dansby early in the year and reap the benefits.

Owners who feel light at their defensive line position early in the year needn't worry. 2007 is shaping up to be the year of the emerging young stud DE. Guys like Robert Geathers, Ray Edwards, Stanley McClover, Justin Tuck, Jamaal Anderson, Bobby McCray, Darryl Tapp and Elvis Dumervil have been undervalued in most redrafts and some may still be available in moderately deep dynasty leagues. If any of these guys start out strong, it's no fluke. Should one be dropped after a slow start, keep a wary eye and be ready to pounce if the slow start was due to poor matchups or surrounding cast issues that are due to improve.

Don't forget to check out our Thursday night IDP podcast on The Audible for the most up-to-date information available on injuries, emerging players and strategy talk.

Confused about defensive terminology, a particular scheme or have a suggestion for something you'd like to see broken down? Have a general IDP strategy question? Send your question to bramel@footballguys.com and we'll do our best to answer each week.