IDP Strong/Weak Plays - Week 13

Posted 11/28 by Anthony Borbely, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

This will be a weekly feature for IDP owners out there who are having some troubles deciding who to start on Sundays. I'm going to analyze the statistics in a few different ways to find favorable matchups and unfavorable matchups and then point out some players who are most likely to be affected by those matchups. I'll provide the reasoning behind these selections so you can think about it and decide for yourselves. I will also review my picks from the week before so you can see how accurate the picks have been. As most people know, predicting performance on a game by game basis can be difficult for offensive players, but that difficulty is often exaggerated with IDPs. A big play or two can drastically change the fantasy points of an IDP, which makes them tougher to predict than offensive players.

Matchups are important, but there are so many other variables that come into play that sometimes you have to just stick with your best players and hope they come through with just one or two big plays. In general, I advise playing your studs, and then mixing in some other players to put your lineup together. Hopefully some of the players listed below can help you with some tough lineup decisions.

One thing that I expect to be a common theme in the selections will be the inconsistent sack totals of the defensive linemen. In FBG scoring, if a player gets a sack, it amounts to 5.5 points (1 sack, 1 solo tackle). With the cutoff at seven points, if a lineman gets a sack, he is likely to make the cutoff. I expect the DL hits and misses to be the toughest to predict all year, because of the difficulty in predicting sacks, and the weight that one sack carries in the point totals.

NOTE: As the year goes on, the statistics become more relevant than they will be early in the year, due to the early part of the year having a small sample size of statistics. Please take that into account when analyzing any statistics during the early part of the year.

A brief note about the hit rates: To provide an objective standard to evaluate these selections, seven fantasy points will be used as the cutoff for DL, ten fantasy points will be used as the cutoff for LB, and nine fantasy points will be used as the cutoff for DB. Thus, when a player is listed as a strong start, that means I think he has a good chance to hit the cutoff point based on his matchup, and when I say a player is a weak start, that means I think he has a good chance to be below the cutoff point. I will evaluate my success throughout the season to try and provide you with the information you need to make your starting decisions.

Best of luck with your starting lineup decisions this week. Feel free to e-mail me at borbely@footballguys.com with any feedback or suggestions regarding this article.

Review of Last Week's Strong Plays

DL Indianapolis Colts (@ Atlanta Falcons) - DE Robert Mathis: 1 solo, 1 asst = 2.25 pts. Miss
DL Oakland Raiders (@ Kansas City Chiefs) - DE Derrick Burgess: 4 solos, 1 asst, 2 sacks = 14.75 pts. Hit
LB Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. Washington Redskins) - MLB Barrett Ruud: 5 solos, 5 asst = 11.25 pts. Hit
LB Denver Broncos (@ Chicago Bears) - MLB D.J. Williams: 9 solos, 2 asst = 15 pts. Hit
DB San Francisco 49ers (@ Arizona Cardinals) - CB Walt Harris: 3 solos, 2 INT, 2 PD = 17.5 pts. Hit
DB St. Louis Rams (vs. Seattle Seahawks) - CB Fakhir Brown: 3 solos, 1 asst = 5.25 pts. Miss

Strong Plays Summary

Hit rate for week 12: 4/6, 67%
Year to date: 45/80, 56%

Review of Last Week's Weak Plays

DL Tennessee Titans (@ Cincinnati Bengals) - DE Kyle Vanden Bosch: 2 solos, 1 asst, 1 sack, 1 FF = 11.75 pts. Miss
DL St. Louis Rams (vs. Seattle Seahawks) - DE James Hall: 0 pts. Hit
LB New Orleans Saints (@ Carolina Panthers) - SLB Scott Fujita: 6 solos = 9 pts. Hit
LB Green Bay Packers (@ Detroit Lions) - WLB A.J. Hawk: 5 asst = 3.75 pts. Hit
DB Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. Miami Dolphins) - CB Ike Taylor: 3 solos, 1 asst, 1 PD = 6.75 pts. Hit
DB New York Giants (vs. Minnesota Vikings) - CB Sam Madison: 1 solo = 1.5 pts. Hit

Weak Plays Summary

Hit rate for week 12: 5/6, 83%
Year to date: 39/79, 49%

This Week's Strong Plays

DL Minnesota Vikings (vs. Detroit Lions) - DE Ray Edwards
Edwards had his best fantasy score of the year earlier this season against the Lions, who lead the NFL in sacks allowed. The Lions are a great matchup for defensive lineman, and Edwards should have a solid day
DL Denver Broncos (@ Oakland Raiders) - DE Elvis Dumervil
Dumervil has slowed down after a fast start and only has two sacks in his last five games. But he faces a Raider team that is in the top ten in sacks allowed and is one of the best matchups for a DL. Dumervil should get back on track this week.
LB Buffalo Bills (@ Washington Redskins) - MLB John DiGiorgio
The Redskins have given up big numbers all season to LBs, and are in the top five in the NFL in rushing attempts. DiGiorgio figures to see a lot of Clinton Portis this week and should be able to rack up a lot of tackles.
LB New York Giants (@ Chicago Bears) - MLB Antonio Pierce
Pierce faces a Bears team that has given up huge numbers to inside LBs all season He is a solid start in week 13.
DB Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. Cincinnati Bengals) - CB Ike Taylor
The Bengals have been one of the best matchups for DBs all year because of their high powered passing attack. Taylor is a great play this week.
DB Tampa Bay Buccaneers (@ New Orleans Saints) - CB Ronde Barber
The Saints lead the NFL in pass attempts, and have been a great matchup all year for DBs. Barber will have many chances to make plays in coverage, and is also strong in run defense. He should be in your lineups this week.

This Week's Weak Plays

DL Tampa Bay Buccaneers (@ New Orleans Saints) - DT Jovan Haye
Haye has had a great season and is currently a top 20 DL in FBG scoring, but he has a poor matchup this week against the Saints. There have only been two DL to have more than three solo tackles against the Saints in their last eight games. The Saints have also only allowed eight sacks all season, which is the fewest in the NFL. You should be able to find a better option than Haye this week.
DL Philadelphia Eagles (vs. Seattle Seahawks) - DE Trent Cole
Cole has been a top ten DL all season, but has not had a sack in his last four games. There has only been one game all season in which the Seahawks allowed more than one sack to a defensive lineman. Cole is a risky play this week.
LB Minnesota Vikings (vs. Detroit Lions) - WLB Chad Greenway
Greenway faces a Lions team that has been a terrible matchup for LBs all season. He should be on the bench this week.
LB Indianapolis Colts (vs. Jacksonville Jaguars) - MLB Gary Brackett
The Jaguars have only allowed two inside linebackers to get more than six solo tackles. No LB all season has had a sack or an interception against them. Brackett is a poor option this week.
DB New Orleans Saints (vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers) - FS Josh Bullocks
There have only been two games all year in which a DB has had an interception against Tampa Bay. DBs have also only had 10 passes defended all year, and six of those came in one game. There has only been one free safety all season to have more than four solo tackles against the Buccaneers. Needless to say, Bullocks has a terrible matchup this week, and should be on your bench.
DB Denver Broncos (@ Oakland Raiders) - CB Champ Bailey
The Raiders have been one of the worst matchups for DBs all season. The Broncos run defense ranks near the bottom in almost every major category, and the Raiders are likely to lean heavily on the running game this week. Bailey may not have many chances to make plays in coverage and is a risky play this week.

FBG IDP Scoring

Solo/Asst = 1.5 pts / 0.75 pts
Sacks = 4 pts
INT = 5 pts
FF/FR = 4 pts
PD = 1.5 pts