IDP Strong/Weak Plays - Week 1

Posted 9/6 by Anthony Borbely, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

This will be a weekly feature for IDP owners out there who are having some troubles deciding who to start on Sundays. I'm going to analyze the statistics in a few different ways to find favorable matchups and unfavorable matchups and then point out some players who are most likely to be affected by those matchups. I'll provide the reasoning behind these selections so you can think about it and decide for yourselves. I will also review my picks from the week before so you can see how accurate the picks have been. As most people know, predicting performance on a game by game basis can be difficult for offensive players, but that difficulty is often exaggerated with IDPs. A big play or two can drastically change the fantasy points of an IDP, which makes them tougher to predict than offensive players.

Matchups are important, but there are so many other variables that come into play that sometimes you have to just stick with your best players and hope they come through with just one or two big plays. In general, I advise playing your studs, and then mixing in some other players to put your lineup together. Hopefully some of the players listed below can help you with some tough lineup decisions.

NOTE: As the year goes on, the statistics become more relevant than they will be early in the year, due to the early part of the year having a small sample size of statistics. Please take that into account when analyzing any statistics during the early part of the year. With this being the opening week of the NFL season, there are obviously no statistics from this year to base the decisions on.

A brief note about the hit rates: To provide an objective standard to evaluate these selections, seven fantasy points will be used as the cutoff for DL, ten fantasy points will be used as the cutoff for LB, and nine fantasy points will be used as the cutoff for DB. Thus, when a player is listed as a strong start, that means I think he has a good chance to top the cutoff point based on his matchup, and when I say a player is a weak start, that means I think he has a good chance to be below the cutoff point. I will evaluate my success throughout the season to try and provide you with the information you need to make your starting decisions.

Best of luck with your starting lineup decisions this week. Feel free to e-mail me at borbely@footballguys.com with any feedback or suggestions regarding this article.

Strong Plays

DL Oakland Raiders (vs. Detroit Lions) - DE Derrick Burgess
The Lions are expected to throw the ball early and often, and Burgess should have a great chance to rack up a sack or two against a weak Lions offensive line.

DL Washington Redskins (vs. Miami Dolphins) - DE Andre Carter
Carter plays against a porous Miami offensive line, and QB Trent Green is not a very mobile QB. Carter should have some opportunities to make plays throughout the game.

DL Detroit Lions (@ Oakland Raiders) - DE Dewayne White
Oakland allowed more sacks (72) in 2006 than any team in the NFL, and the Raiders did not make any significant changes to the offensive line. White should make a few big plays to go along with solid tackle numbers.

LB Tennessee Titans (@ Jacksonville Jaguars) - SLB David Thornton
The Jaguars feature one of the better running attacks in the NFL, and also are starting QB David Garrard, who likes to run. Garrard is unlikely to throw downfield as much as Leftwich would have. Thornton should put up some solid tackle numbers.

LB Buffalo Bills (vs. Denver Broncos) - MLB Paul Posluszny
The Broncos seem likely to run the ball a lot with their new RB, Travis Henry, which bodes well for Posluszny's tackle numbers. With the injury to WLB Keith Ellison, Posluszny figures to play in the nickel packages, and should be able to add a few coverage plays.

LB Green Bay Packers (vs. Philadelphia Eagles) - MLB Nick Barnett
Eagles RB Brian Westbrook figures to touch the ball a lot against the Packers in both the run and pass game, and Barnett should put up solid tackle numbers.

DB Oakland Raiders (vs. Detroit Lions) - SS Michael Huff
While listed as a SS, Huff plays a lot in coverage. The Lions are likely to be throwing the ball downfield a lot, and that should allow Huff to put up solid numbers across the board.

DB Minnesota Vikings (vs. Atlanta Falcons) - CB Antoine Winfield
The Vikings had the best run defense in the NFL in 2006, and with Viking DTs Pat Williams and Kevin Williams inside, the Falcons will have to either run outside, or throw the ball. Winfield should put up solid tackle numbers in both run and pass defense.

DB Indianapolis Colts (vs. New Orleans Saints) - FS Bob Sanders
Deuce McAllister and Reggie Bush are likely to have a lot of touches, and Sanders will have opportunities to make a lot of plays in run defense.

Weak Plays

DL Tennessee Titans (vs. Jacksonville Jaguars) - DE Kyle Vanden Bosch
The Jaguars will run the ball a lot, including the rushing attempts of QB David Garrard. With Garrard's scrambling ability, sacks will be tough to come by, making Vanden Bosch a risky play in week one.

DL Chicago Bears (@ San Diego Chargers) - DE Mark Anderson
The Chargers have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, and that will make it difficult for Anderson to get sacks.

DL Philadelphia Eagles (@ Green Bay Packers) - DE Trent Cole
QB Brett Favre is one of the toughest QBs to sack in the NFL, and most of the big plays against the Packers are as a result of Favre throwing the ball into coverage, rather than taking sacks. Cole figures to have a tough time trying to make plays against Favre.

LB Oakland Raiders (vs. Detroit Lions) - MLB Kirk Morrison
The Lions likely will be throwing the ball downfield a lot, which will make it tough for Morrison to put up solid tackle numbers.

LB Minnesota Vikings (vs. Atlanta Falcons) - MLB E.J. Henderson
The Vikings are very hard to run on between the tackles and this may hurt Henderson's chance to put up good tackle numbers, as the Falcons may not run the ball much.

LB Seattle Seahawks (vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers) - WLB Julian Peterson
QB Jeff Garcia is elusive in the pocket, and Peterson will have a hard time trying to sack him and create some big plays.

DB Houston Texans (vs. Kansas City Chiefs) - CB Dunta Robinson
The Chiefs will rely on Larry Johnson in both the running and passing game, and the bulk of the leftovers will go to TE Tony Gonzalez, which will make it tough for Robinson to make a lot of plays.

DB Cincinnati Bengals (vs. Baltimore Ravens) - FS Madieu Williams
The Ravens will try to establish the running game with their new RB, Willis McGahee. They don't throw deep a lot, which could limit Williams' ability to make plays.

DB Baltimore Ravens (@ Cincinnati Bengals) - SS Dawan Landry
The Ravens are tough to run against, and the LBs led by Ray Lewis figure to make most of the plays in run defense. The Bengals like to pass downfield, and with Ed Reed patrolling the deep secondary, Landry seems unlikely to make a lot of plays.

FBG IDP Scoring

Solo/Asst = 1.5 pt/0.75 pt
Sacks = 4 pts
INT = 5 pts
FF/FR = 4 pts
PD = 1.5 pt