The Rookie 100 - Part Three

  Posted 7/22 by Sigmund Bloom, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

This article will be released in 4 parts (each 25 players long). It reflects dynasty worth for this year's draft class.

51. Stephen Nicholas, LB, Atlanta - It's hard to not like Nicholas' outlook in Atlanta. Demorrio Williams tore a pec in the offseason and his contract ends after this season. Williams' recovery is ahead of schedule according to Atlanta coach Bobby Petrino, but he is not a lock to be ready for the start of the season. The Falcons brought in veteran Orlando Huff, but he's nothing more than insurance in case Nicholas is overwhelmed if he gets the call as a rookie. Nicholas is an excellent pass rusher, which gives him a good chance of staying on the field on 3rd down. Nicholas was the first Atlanta rookie to sign and word is that they really like him.

52. Eric Weddle, S, San Diego - Weddle should get a chance to freelance and roam more with Marlon McCree as his future partner in the middle of the secondary. The chances of him getting moved to corner were reduced when the Chargers took CB Paul Oliver in the 4th round of the supplemental draft. Weddle exhibits great anticipation and a big play mentality. He will never rack up tackles like an "in the box" intimidator, but he will have a game-changing impact, and he's more than willing in run support. Norv Turner said about Weddle, "he's got a lot to learn, but he's moving around really well and showing great instincts."

53. Garrett Wolfe, RB, Chicago - Wolfe is a very intriguing player, if only because Chicago seems really like him. When we talked to John Crist (of the Bear Report magazine and website), he said that he expected Wolfe to pass Adrian Peterson as the primary backup to Cedric Benson by midseason, citing the value Peterson has a special teamer as part of the reason. Wolfe is something like a mini-MJD (which seems redundant), he has that compact "pinball" running style. The Northern Illinois product also reportedly questioned commissioner Roger Goodell at the rookie symposium about the quality of his viewpoint considering he had never played football. Chicago is very good about getting their rookies signed early, and Wolfe was no exception. He seems worth a 4th if you own Benson, otherwise it comes down to your assessment of whether Wolfe's unique, but limited talent will translate enough to register a statistical impact. History suggests the answer is no.

54. Troy Smith, QB, Baltimore - Troy Smith's questioning of Goodell was more highly publicized than Wolfe's (Jordan Palmer also had a question for the commish), so his behavior didn't really stand out as much as the initial reports would have led you to believe. Smith will only have to beat out Drew Olson to be the third stringer in Baltimore, which means he has a clear path to have a shot to start in the future. Steve McNair is in the twilight of his career and Kyle Boller is an impending free agent. Smith might be one of those QBs whose game only works in college, but he's also got a lot room to grow in his game. His opportunity alone makes him worth drafting and holding in deep leagues.

55. Darrelle Revis, CB, New York Jets - Revis has reportedly been making the Jets feel good about moving up to take him, picking up where he left off at Pittsburgh. Coach Eric Mangini said, "I like the way he's been physical at the line of scrimmage. A lot of the same characteristics we saw in college we're seeing here." Revis has top notch anticipation, confidence, and return ability, and he's more than willing in run support. He also should start early enough that he won't clog a roster spot for long as a developmental CB, which is usually why I advocate passing on CBs in rookie drafts.

56. Aaron Rouse, S, Green Bay - Rouse is signed and ready to compete for the starting strong safety position in Titletown. He's got the profile of a striker "in the box" safety, and Nick Collins can cover enough ground for Rouse to freelance. He only has to beat out the disappointing Marquand Manuel and Marviel Underwood, who is coming back from a torn ACL. He did get benched in his Senior year at Virginia Tech, partially due to a personal foul spree. Rouse is the classic tweener, he even spent his first two years at Virginia Tech at linebacker. He might completely flame out and lack a natural position in the NFL, but at least you'll learn a lot about him early since he's competing to start right away.

57. Brandon Meriweather, S, New England - Meriweather should fit right in a Patriots secondary full of interchangeable parts. Like Weddle, he's not an "in the box" safety, but that did not stop him from racking up tackles and being very active in run support in college. He even had 13 tackles for loss in his junior season, which highlights Meriweather's aggressive style. The possibility of Meriweather playing some slot corner and centerfielder does take the edge of his future fantasy value, but I also trust the Patriots to use him in a way that suits his strengths.

58. Tony Hunt, RB, Philadelphia - Hunt is signed and ready to start playing the role of utility back in the Eagles offense. Eagles offensive coordinator Marty Mornhinweg said, "he is more than a big back. He does a lot of things on the field. He fits into this system." Hunt may get some goal line vulture action and is probably a wise handcuff for Brian Westbrook owners, but I don't see him ever being a feature back in the NFL.

59. Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, New York Giants - This shifty back has been turning some heads in Giants minicamp and OTAs with his burst and quickness. He's been one of the most talked about players in the Giants practices, also getting compliments on his hands, and his explosion through the line on inside runs. Bradshaw has more talent than a typical 7th rounder - he's not that far off of Antonio Pittman and Brandon Jackson as a physical specimen. He could have value down the line if Brandon Jacobs doesn't work out as a feature back.

60. Trent Edwards, QB, Buffalo - Edwards is signed and ready to start gunning for Craig Nall's backup job. His main chances to have value in the future are if Losman busts, which seems less likely after his strong finish to 2006, or if Edwards develops well and draws interest as a trade target, a la Matt Schaub. The Bills took him as a BPA, and we know how scarce starting quality QBs are, so this is not as remote a possibility as it sounds. In other words, you're going to have to hold Edwards for at least 2-3 years before you see value, and that's why he's this low on the list despite having considerable physical and mental upside as a QB. One big thing Edwards has going for him is that, unlike his career at Stanford, he's likely to stay injury-free carrying a clipboard and running the scout team for Buffalo.

61. Antwan Barnes, LB, Baltimore - This lethal edge rusher is signed and ready to add yet another scary presence to the Ravens defense. Dan Cody is turning into a chronic medical case, and Jarret Johnson lacks Barnes explosion off the line and killer instinct - I think we could see Barnes play a big role on passing downs from the get-go. I don't know if he's versatile enough to reprise Adalius Thomas's three down role, but like Stephen Nicholas, his pass rush ability gives him a chance to stay on the field on passing downs as a standup edge rusher. Ravens defensive coordinator Rex Ryan is on the record saying, "He's a young man who is an explosive athlete. This could be a guy who, if he keeps his head on straight, is going to be a major contributor for us."

62. Johnny Baldwin, LB, Detroit - This raw athlete is signed and he could start pushing Paris Lenon for the starting MLB job at some point this year. Lions defensive coordinator Joe Barry said Baldwin was "a million miles away from where he needs to be but that's OK because he started two million miles away", so that should temper any short term expectations you might have for Baldwin. Baldwin is still in line to compete for a nice IDP slot as a middle linebacker, so he's worth drafting late and holding, especially if you have Lenon.

63. Kolby Smith, RB, Kansas City - Smith is signed, and if Larry Johnson decides to sit out for more money, he will have a chance to get some valuable carries, because the porcelain RB, Michael Bennett, is currently #2 on the depth chart. Smith's real value lies in the possibility that Johnson walks next year. Smith could have a shot at being the #1 by default if the Chiefs don't spend a high pick or dole out a big contract in free agency for an RB in the 08 offseason. The Louisville product is an average, but productive player. I don't see him holding long term value in any scenario, but he's a great hedge if you own LJ, and worth holding for until 2008 or until LJ signs a long term deal, whichever happens first.

64. Quentin Moses, DE, Oakland - Moses will likely rotate with Kevin Huntley (or even Tommy Kelly or Tyler Brayton) early on, but he should be groomed to be the other pincher of the pass rush opposite Derrick Burgess, another undersized end. The fact that the Raiders have made Burgess work is a sign that he landed in an ideal spot for a player with his profile. The Raiders also have an underrated defense - an aggressive unit that could set Moses up to have double digit sacks if he becomes a starter.

65. Charles Johnson, DE, Carolina - Johnson is signed and he'll be battling Stanley McClover to be the backup to Mike Rucker, who is coming back from a season-ending ACL tear. If Rucker is not ready to start the season (he is on the wrong side of 30), Johnson could inherit his future role as Julius Peppers sidekick right away. Johnson strikes me as a DE who is better in run support than rushing the passer, but the mere presence of Peppers and the great young set of corners could give him lots of opportunities for coverage sacks because the protection schemes will surely be distracted - Johnson is very unlikely to face double teams, and some say that's how he did so well at Georgia last year while Quentin Moses was drawing two blocker on passing downs.

66. Reggie Nelson, S, Jacksonville - Nelson will start right away at free safety, but his outstanding range dictates that he will be stranded in centerfield. His best chance to have a fantasy impact is a game in the mold of Ed Reed - a ballhawk who can cover the deep middle by himself who looks to make big plays when the ball is in his hands. Nelson could also be a bust since he's a one year wonder who played behind a front seven that sported four defensive lineman who were drafted in April (and the likely best of the bunch, Derrick Harvey, is still at Florida).

67. Lamarr Woodley, DE/OLB, Pittsburgh - Woodley's transition to 3-4 OLB is going swimmingly. LB coach Keith Butler said, "compared to the other guys we've had here and trying to make the transition with them, he's further along than anybody we've had." Woodley has probably passed first round pick Lawrence Timmons on the OLB depth chart since Timmons has been hurt. Woodley's is a little lower on this list than his talent would dictate, because his future value depends on whether a switch to Tampa 2 is in the cards, although he actually might end up having more value as a DE.

68. Leon Hall, CB, Cincinnati - Deltha O'Neal will be replaced by Leon Hall sooner than later. O'Neal skipped some OTAs to try to get a new contract (nice try) after reportedly being on the trading block coming off a 2006 that saw him get burnt on big plays way too often. Hall is aggressive and hard-nosed in run defense and he has an aggressive mindset in coverage. He should be a serviceable CB in leagues that break out the position. The only question is how long you'll have to hold him until it's safe to plug him into the lineup.

69. Aaron Ross, CB, New York Giants - Like Hall, Aaron Ross should be able to leapfrog the starter in front of him (Corey Webster) as soon as he shows any signs of being ready. He's another big, physical corner, and his experience as a punt returner gives him the instincts to break a big return when he intercepts a pass. Ross is another fine late pick in leagues that break out CB, although I usually don't advocate carrying extra CBs unless they have top 10 upside, and I think only Revis has that out of the 2007 group.

70. Ken Darby, RB, Tampa Bay - I had basically given up on Darby after his extremely disappointing 2006, but the Bucs really seem to believe in the Alabama product. Jon Gruden has praised his receiving ability, and he has been one of the most talked about players during Bucs minicamp, being compared favorably to Aaron Stecker (not exactly a fantasy force) by Bucs RB coach Art Valero. The team seems to believe the Darby who was a top draft prospect coming into 2006 is the real Darby, chalking up his poor season to off the field distractions from his father's illness and death

71. Michael Griffin, CB, Tennessee - Griffin has a hitter's mentality and top end closing speed, yet the Titans seem insistent on moving him to corner, even after they signed Kelly Herndon after he was released by Seattle. Those abilities will help his eventual fantasy value. He has a higher ceiling than Ross or Hall at CB. The problem is that you will have to wait even longer for production from Griffin while he's being converted, not to mention the added bust risk from a position switch. Griffin's raw physical tools make him a nice stash and hold IDP, but only in the deepest of leagues.

72. Amobi Okoye, DT, Houston - Okoye is a very solid pick in leagues that break out DTs and weight sacks. He has rare quickness for a player with enough heft to play DT. His upside is mind-boggling as a guy who played Division I college football at 16 and just now turned 20. I don't know if Okoye will put up startable numbers for a while, so you might be forced to carry two DTs while he develops, which is something I never like to, although the possibility of Okoye turning into one of the truly elite fantasy DTs probably makes him worth clogging that roster spot for a year.

73. Thomas Clayton, RB, San Francisco - Clayton, like Ahmad Bradshaw, fell further than a player with his physical abilities should have because of off the field issues. The 49ers like his shiftiness despite being a back with a thick, compact frame. The main problem for Clayton is that he'll be blocked by Michael Robinson even if he can beat out Maurice Hicks to be the #3. Still, RB scarcity dictates that any young RB of Clayton's caliber should rostered in most leagues.

74. DeShawn Wynn, RB, Green Bay - The Packers were impressed with Wynn's progress in understanding the offense during minicamp and OTAs, and he also got praise for his vision and footwork. Wynn probably should be higher on this list because of his measurables (which he never played up to at Florida) and the fact that he's on a team with an unsettled RB situation. I just have trouble believing in his ability to beat Noah Herron and make the roster after watching him run soft in college despite having first day draft pick physical tools.

75. Jarvis Moss, DE, Denver - The lanky Moss is trying to gain weight so that he can be more than a pass rush specialist in the pros, but my gut feeling is that his slight frame will keep him from ever being a startable fantasy DE. The Broncos also like to heavily rotate their defensive lineman, although this could be more due to lack of a standout player than a system. The team also drafted Tim Crowder, who has a lot of the run stuffing skills Moss lacks, so he could also stand in the way of Moss ever being a three down DE. I also do not advocate carrying developmental DEs unless they have top 20 upside, and I just don't see it from Moss, His raw pass rush ability does makes him worth drafting in sack heavy leagues.