Posted 11/28 by Sigmund Bloom, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
Buy Low
Lee Evans, WR, Buffalo Bills - We've been through this with Evans
before in 05, and his outlook certainly did not look better in 2006 with JP
Losman returning as his QB. Anyone who traded him away regretted it, and anyone
who traded for him was a lot better off for it. Evans is one of the elite
WR talents in the league in the areas of straight line speed, ability to go
up and get a jump ball, and small area quicks. Those talents haven't translated
into production this year for any number of reasons, but over time, they will.
The Bills are turning to Trent Edwards, and he is just a better overall QB
than Losman and will run the offense much better. Time to see if a frustrated
Evans owner is fed up with the rollercoaster ride.
Jake Delhomme, QB, Carolina Panthers - Remember me? Delhomme threw
for eight TDs in 11 quarters before suffering a season ending injury to his
throwing elbow. The QB play has ranged from barely adequate to terrible, but
it always reminded Carolina just how much they miss Delhomme. He'll be the
man through the end of his contract in 2009, and Steve Smith owners will be
able to sleep soundly again. He'll also be a fine bye week/injury player,
and maybe a surprise #1 in 2008 - after all he was producing at that level
before he went down this year.
Julius Jones, RB, Dallas Cowboys - Jones has steadily disappointed
us since his rookie second half portended great things, but it would be unwise
to give up on him on the verge of his foray into free agency. Jones still
runs with conviction and should at worst be part of an RBBC, but I doubt he'll
have as strong a partner as Marion Barber. I see a lot of mediocre RBs producing
in good situations - situations that would be improved if Jones was introduced
to them. With the frequency of RB injuries and Jones durability, he should
be the kind of RB to have at least a handful of startable games a year, which
is more value than most people see in him right now.
Darrell Jackson, WR, San Francisco 49ers - OK, we all knew Jackson
was in for a fall leaving Seattle, but no one saw this freefall coming. Jackson
has been guilty of drops at key moments, but he has also been mired in one
of the worst offenses in the league. I see shades of Randy Moss being deflated
when he was with the team on the other side of the bay. Jackson is just turning
29, so he has a few more prime years left. Things will either improve in SF
(they can't get worse) or Jackson will find a new, more hospitable home. I'm
still seeing him get behind safeties at times. This season should look like
a statistical aberration in a few years.
Zach Miller, TE, Oakland Raiders - Miller continues to improve, and
even prove some doubters wrong by getting into space and ripping the seams
on occasion. He's a comparable talent to Heath Miller, and while his rookie
numbers aren't as good, he should settle into a similar role. In general this
is a good time to go shopping for rookies who have "disappointed"
by not being startable fantasy players.
Jerricho Cotchery, WR, New York Jets - Cotchery has been playing
as well as ever, but Kellen Clemens has had some trouble finding him when
he is open. Defenses have also been able to focus on him a little more while
Coles has been out. He is frustrating his owners right now, but Cotch still
projects as a solid WR2/3 for a while. Try to buy while he's in a slump.
D.J. Hackett, WR, Seattle Seahawks - It was a nice (if short) run,
but DJ Hackett hurt the ankle that cost him over a month earlier in the year,
and he will probably be a non-factor for the rest of the year. Chances are
his owners won't want to deal in the wake of his nice November, but they might
be hard up for a starting quality WR. There's no reason to think Hackett will
be injury prone in the future. It is a bit of a risk that he won't have as
good an offensive situation as Seattle after free agency, but his talent looks
like it will translate no matter where he ends up.
Drew Carter, WR, Carolina Panthers - Carter's situation can only
get better after free agency, and he continues to demonstrate the speed and
ups to be a top big play threat wherever he ends up. Carter is just on the
cusp of his prime, and he will be on a team that covets him and values his
talent. He and Bryant Johnson should be given honest chances to start after
toiling away as talented #3s for the last few years and they should be sought
in minor trade deadline deals.
Sell High
Chad Johnson, WR, Cincinnati Bengals - 85 did what he does a few
times a year last week, so maybe, just maybe, you can get someone to give
you elite #1 WR value for him in the wake of his blowup. He's still a strong
fantasy #1 and acceptable #2, but the last two years have shown us that Johnson
is not a consistent red zone target and likely to get banged up a few times
a year and take too many huge hits. His owners know how inconsistent he is
in the box score, but someone seeking a WR in a trade and just looking at
YTD numbers may not know the extent of the "when it rains, it pours"
nature of Ocho Cinco's production.
Greg Lewis, WR, Philadelphia Eagles - If you can get a wooden nickel
for him, you just got a wooden nickel cost free.
Jamal Lewis, RB, Cleveland Browns - You should not deal Lewis if
you are in a title hunt, but otherwise, it's time to pull the ripcord. Things
have come together for Lewis and the Browns, and while it's very possible
that the Browns bring him back when his one year deal expires in the offseason,
it's not a given. Even if he does return, it's easy to forget that Lewis was
a non-factor for fantasy in more than half the games this year. He's running
with urgency, but he'll be 30 when the 2009 season begins, and the next time
he loses a starting time might be the last time he has one. I've been impressed
with Lewis, especially as a receiver, and he should finish strong, so the
ideal sell high time could be the offseason, as long as you're confident the
Browns will renew his deal.
Earnest Graham, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers - It's been a good stretch
for Graham, but with Jeff Garcia feeling his age, Graham will find much less
room to run. Unless he's been a starter for you and you're heading to the
playoffs, he should have been traded weeks ago.
Kenny Watson, RB, Cincinnati Bengals - Last week confirmed that when
the Bengals have a lead to protect (it's been so rare this year), they will
turn to Rudi Johnson to nurse the clock. Watson is still a nice third down
back, and he has certainly improved his standing around the league, but he
is not going to inherit this job, even if he has been more effective than
Johnson. Next year should bring the return of at least one of Kenny Irons
and Chris Perry, if not both, and Watson will go back to being a utility back.
Adrian Peterson, RB, Chicago Bears - Sell immediately. Peterson was
fine on runs out of passing formations and on passing downs, but when he had
to get the bread and butter yards vs. Denver (no juggernaut vs. the run),
Peterson was stymied time after time. He bulled his way into the end zone
for a TD, and got solid total yards because of his receptions, but he might
be one of the least attractive starting backup RBs to own right now because
teams will likely force Rex Grossman to beat them. This is likely the highest
Peterson's value will ever be in dynasty leagues.
