Buy Low/Sell High - WRs and TEs
Posted 8/10 by Bloom, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
BUY LOW
Demetrius Williams, Baltimore - Williams proved last year that his high wire act from Oregon would translate to the NFL despite his slight frame. He was able to get behind defenses and give the Ravens the big play threat they lacked in the WR corps. Derrick Mason is assuming his place as dependable veteran possession WR, but the spot opposite Mark Clayton is earmarked for Williams. Williams is going much cheaper than other young WRs who have already captured a starting job, but at some point this season, he will displace Mason and his value will explode.
Isaac Bruce, St. Louis - If the team that owns Bruce in your league is not set up to be a contender, you should be able to land this likely WR2 for pennies on the dollar. Bruce's age will scare a lot of people off of him in the dynasty format, but he showed no signs of an impending decline last year. If you're making a push for a title this year, try to turn next year's second or third round pick into Bruce.
Braylon Edwards, Cleveland - Edwards may struggle as the Browns go through quarterbacks and adjust to a new offense this year, but he had to contend with the same factors last year, plus only being one year removed from an ACL tear. All reports out of camp say that the total package of abilities that made him the #3 overall pick is on display again, pointing towards a large improvement on last year's numbers. Edwards could easily settle into the Lee Evans/Javon Walker dynasty tier - young #1's whose best years are ahead of them.
Greg Jennings, Green Bay - Jennings scalding start was one of the most overlooked stories in fantasy football last year. While it is troubling that he was never able to completely recover from a sprained ankle, Jennings ability to be a major part of the Packers offense from day one portends great things in his future. If he stays healthy this year, Jennings should be a 1B to Donald Driver's 1A, and he's set up to inherit the #1 WR role.
Ronald Curry, Oakland - Curry was a highly valued dynasty commodity before tearing his Achilles in 2004. After he re-tore the Achilles in 2005, most of us left him for dead. The Oakland offense was a wreck in 2006, and while wrecks get our attention at first, after a while, they become too grotesque to keep watching. Not only did Curry walk away from that wreck unscathed, he actually looked like the hard-nosed sure-handed target we were so excited about in 2004. Buy while the Oakland offense still seems to be in disarray.
Santana Moss, Washington - In 2006, Moss struggled through a hamstring injury, one QB on the decline, and another getting broken in. He's still a true #1 WR, and Jason Campbell will not only be improved this year, but he also showed the deep arm to harness Moss speed last year. Moss is a deep threat, but he is not one dimensional, he is also a gritty receiver who will make the tough catch on third down and he's got good hands and field awareness. His hip/groin issues in training camp are a reason for pause, but you should be able to knock his price down that much more if you play that news up to his owner.
Troy Williamson, Minnesota - If Williamson fails this year, we may not hear much from him again. I am not sure if he will succeed, but the reward is so high, and the cost is low, that it would be foolish to not take a chance on the guy Minnesota wants to be their #1. Williamson can be had as a throw-in in a larger deal, a pittance for guy who will be featured in the passing attack, at least at the beginning of the season.
Bryant Johnson, Arizona - Johnson showed the ability to produce against starting cornerbacks when Larry Fitzgerald was out last year. While this illustrates that Johnson could be a startable player if either Fitz or Anquan Boldin gets hurt in 2007, the more important point to take away from his 2006 is that he can be a legitimate NFL starting WR. Johnson will be a free agent in 2008, and he should at least get a shot to compete for a starting job. Even though he's a first rounder who has not broken out, it is not because he is a bust. The Cards could not pass on Larry Fitzgerald in 2004, and they did not anticipate Boldin's breakout when they took Johnson in the same draft in 2003.
Arnaz Battle, San Francisco - The illusion that Ashley Lelie is going to start opposite Darrell Jackson in San Fran is already dissipating. Battle is going to resume his role as the tough dependable WR who will play through pain. Jackson and the eventual emergence of Vernon Davis may keep Battle from putting up numbers that would make him startable in start 2 WR leagues, but he's going to settle in comfortably at in the WR3/WR4 tier and provide reliable depth.
Marcedes Lewis, Jacksonville - Lewis was brought in to be the big receiving threat in the middle of the field, but has struggled to make an impact after an early high ankle sprain derailed his 2006. Now he's got an offensive coordinator (Dirk Koetter) who made stars out of Todd Heap and Zach Miller at Arizona State (and also saw Lewis once a year as an opponent). Lewis has WR hands, and a WR frame, and it's only a matter of time before he's used that way. He's got as much long term upside as any TE outside of the top 8.
Vernon Davis, San Francisco - Final boarding call for the Vernon Davis Express. The league has never seen a TE with Davis' abilities, and he is no workout warrior, he knows how to use his exceptional strength and speed to checkmate defenders. His broken leg and rookie struggles last year mask that he flashed that talent enough to know that he's the "real deal". Davis is the best run after catch thread of any TE in the league, he's already shown that he can be a #1 receiving option in Maryland, and San Francisco wants him to be their #1 option. Once people see what he can do on a regular basis, you won't be able to pry him from his owner. You've been warned.
SELL HIGH
Vincent Jackson, San Diego - It's hard to get excited about any WR on San Diego because you know they will never be higher than the #3 option in the passing game, but there are other reasons to be bearish on Jackson's stock. Malcom Floyd looked just as good or better than Jackson last year, he just couldn't stay healthy. The team is raving about first round pick Craig Davis in camp. The thing that nags me most about believing in Jackson is that he is just not a natural receiver. He's got an outstanding size/speed combination, and he uses it to get open, but when it comes time to seal the deal by making the catch, Jackson seems to run hot and cold. This is the time to trade Jackson - you know there are a few owners in every dynasty league who see him as a future stud.
Donald Driver, Green Bay - Could Driver's early shoulder injury (one that he showed up with, not suffered in camp) be a sign that his age is catching up with him? Probably not, but when you add that to the other factors breaking against Driver, it seems like it's time to sell. Brett Favre is not only likely at the end of his career, his accuracy plummeted to 56% last year, and he had his lowest TD pass total since his first year as a starter. Greg Jennings relegated Driver to a 1A in the first five weeks of the season - if Jennings stays healthy, that trend should continue. Rookie James Jones looks like he's going to give the team a real #3 WR. Driver is perennially underrated, but this season, he might be overrated. Trade him while some still see him as a #1 WR.
Randy Moss, New England - No matter how giddy you are about the Brady to Moss hookup, temper it with the reality that the Pats only signed Moss to a one year deal. In addition, we've learned a lot about Moss in the last three years, and none of it is good. He quits on his team. He's a slow healer. He's ineffective when playing hurt. We also know New England spreads the ball around (and they have the weapons to do it this year), and we know that Moss already tweaked his hammy in camp. If I owned Moss, I would be putting him at the centerpiece of a package to land a real #1 like Steve Smith or Chad Johnson.
Chris Chambers, Miami - I'll admit it, I thought Daunte Culpepper was going to make Chambers look like Randy Moss last year. By far the strength of his game is going after deep balls and jumpballs, and Culpepper showed a willingness to do that for Randy, so what could go wrong? The answer: Everything. Chambers 2006 was a disaster because of poor play from both him and the QBs, and now Cam Cameron is installing an offense that emphasizes a different kind of receiver than Chambers. Not to mention the QB situation has not gotten any better, and the offensive line is even more of a question mark than it was last year. Some see him as a buy low, so this is the time to cash in the lingering value from his excellent 2005.
Devery Henderson, New Orleans - Henderson might put up numbers as the #2 WR by default as Robert Meachem adjusts to the NFL, but it seems likely that he will never turn his considerable physical talent into startable fantasy production in the NFL. He will be good for some huge weeks because he can get deep (and Drew Brees knows how to find him), but he won't be a dependable every-week starter. Henderson's spotty hands will probably keep him from becoming an entrenched starter at any point in the future. Sell while his short term outlook is positive.
Donte Stallworth, New England - If you haven't already been scared off of Stallworth by his numerous hamstring injuries (I can hear his owners collectively groaning at the mention of "hamstring"), his new situation should be enough to persuade you to put him on the trading block. The Patriots "spread it around" passing game will make it almost impossible to know when he is going to go off, and when he is going to disappear from the box score. His contract was basically a one year deal, so even if you see the New England surroundings adding value because of Tom Brady, that part of his outlook could be fleeting. Stallworth adds a dimension to his team's passing offense, but he is not the kind of receiver that becomes a central part of passing attack. Much like Moss, the perceived bump to Stallworth's value as a Patriot should be the window you use to trade him to a more optimistic fantasy GM.
Kellen Winslow, Cleveland - Although Winslow accumulated good numbers last year as the preferred checkdown option for Charlie Frye, his production tailed off a bit after Derek Anderson was installed. He also complained of knee soreness after every game. While he did have knee surgery during the offseason, it was risky microfracture surgery. Winslow's body already has the wear and tear of a ten year veteran. While early reports out of camp are positive, eventually the bottom is going to drop out. Trade him while the illusion that he's an elite fantasy TE still exists.
Alge Crumpler, Atlanta - Michael Vick only had eyes for Crumpler, so his legal troubles can not be good for Crumpler's dynasty outlook. Joey Harrington, and whomever comes after him will actually see and use all of the eligible receivers. Crumpler has also been nagged by knee issues for most of his career, and we have already learned that he is having to miss time in camp because a right knee he had surgically repaired in the offseason. His four year run as a top 5 fantasy TE is likely to end this year, and he may never reach those heights again.
