Pre-Camp Buy Low/Sell High - Running Backs

  Posted 7/25 by Sigmund Bloom, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

As training camps approach, Buy Low/Sell High will cover the league by position, focusing on dynasty value.

BUY LOW

Michael Turner, San Diego - Would you trade Darren McFadden if you owned him right now? How about a first round rookie pick that was guaranteed to be top three? That's the kind of question you should be asking yourself if you own Turner and get an offer for him. This offseason ended up being a letdown for Turner owners after a flurry of talk about trades that would have freed him from the shadow of LaDainian Tomlinson. We can, however, say with certainty that he'll get his shot next year. Turner has a rare combination of a low-built, compact, powerful frame and breakaway speed. He's also got good vision and acceleration. He's not as dynamic a talent as McFadden, but like McFadden, he's a sure bet to be a plug and play fantasy RB in the near future. If your league held its initial draft this offseason, and Turner's owner drafted him to be responsible for a starting running back spot this year, that is a perfect opportunity to pry him away with a lesser back who will be a more reliable producer in the short term.

Larry Johnson, Kansas City - There's a lot of gloom-and-doom talk around Larry Johnson right now. He's going to break down from his workload. The changes on the offensive line are going to cause him to fall off. What are the Chiefs going to do at quarterback? Is he going to hold out and miss part of the season? What this all adds up to is a great buy low moment for one of the true studs at the running back position. He produced at an elite clip through almost as much adversity last year. LJ is a little old (turning 28 this year) for a four year vet, but you have to keep in mind that he has only absorbed 1.5 seasons of feature back wear and tear. He also dishes out as much punishment as he takes (if not more). He's the perfect back to target if you are shopping one of the young, promising "sell high" backs.

Reggie Bush, New Orleans - Bush is another great target if you are looking to sell one of the "it" backs on the sell high list. The expectations for Bush were astronomical when he entered the league last year - so high that his finish as RB17 while learning the ropes and being banged up for part of the year was disappointing to some of his owners. Once he figured out that he can't bounce everything outside and play cat and mouse with NFL defenses, Bush looked a lot more like the back we expected him to be. He rattled off eight touchdowns in the second half of the season - and most importantly, he showed a nose for the end zone. He scored on long breakaway TDs, he scored on third down touches in the red zone, and he even scored three times on one yard goal to go runs. The NFC title game is another example of why Bush is such a valuable fantasy commodity - even when Chicago bottled him up on most every touch, he still busted an 88 yard TD catch and run. Yes, Deuce McAllister is getting the bulk of the carries, but he won't be around forever. A couple more long TDs early in the season, and Bush's owners are going to put in him in the vault, so now could be your last chance to get him.

Jerome Harrison, Cleveland - Just a year ago, Harrison was ripping off big draw plays in the preseason and inspiring some excitement among his dynasty owners. He was ultraproductive at Washington State, showing good bread and butter RB skills like sharp cuts and visions, but Harrison fell to the fifth round because he was considered too small be an NFL feature back. Harrison did struggle with pass protection, which limited his role in 2006, and that fit into that prevailing of Harrison as scatback. A year later, Harrison has bulked up to 212 pounds and he's ready for "take two". The Browns traded Reuben Droughns, but also went out and signed Jamal Lewis. Lewis is no threat to lock up the long term RB job in Cleveland. Harrison's outlook probably tops out at RBBC partner, but the Browns are without their first round pick next year, so they can't bring in a franchise back through the draft. They could make a run at Turner in free agency, but outside of that possibility, Harrison has a shot at a bigger role in 2008. He could also get an audition late in the season once Cleveland realized what we all know - that Lewis is now a sluggish back on the downside of his career.

DeDe Dorsey, Indianapolis - How is this guy still flying under the radar? His 50-words-or-less story is that he lit up the preseason (20/149, 3/83) as an undrafted free agent for the Bengals in 2006. They tried to stash him on the practice squad, and the Colts pounced on Dorsey, keeping him on the 53-man roster for the rest of the season. Dominic Rhodes has gone to Oakland in free agency, yet the Colts didn't draft a running back or sign a veteran. While Joseph Addai will start games this year, there's little sign that the Colts plan on giving him an Edge-like workload, something that Addai has never done in his career, and something that he's not really built to do. There's going to be a good share of touches for someone to pick up, and Dorsey is first in line to be that guy. More importantly, if Addai gets hurt (injuries riddled his college career), Dorsey could have a similar impact to the one Dominic Rhodes had in 2001. Don't let him sit on the waiver wire any longer.

SELL HIGH

Joseph Addai, Indianapolis - Addai is going at some astounding heights in initial dynasty drafts, as high as fifth overall. While Addai was a nice surprise for the Colts last year, do not mistake him for a workhorse. He won't hold up under a feature back load, and he's not really a pile mover. I would not expect him to get much more than 300 touches, and the Colts brass and coaches have given no signals that his workload will greatly increase from last year. In addition to the dubious assumptions about Addai jumping to a 350+ touch workload, Addai is not a slam dunk to get double digit TDs - Peyton Manning called his own number inside the five three times during the 2006 season, and once in the playoffs, combining for four, one less than the number of TDs Addai scored inside the five. I would definitely be trying to turn Addai into a more proven RB1 if I owned him right now.

Laurence Maroney, New England - Like Addai, Maroney is in a good sell high moment because his value is basically in line with what it will be if he hits his ceiling. Maroney's current value puts him as a late first rounder in initial dynasty drafts, and it's hard to imagine that rising too much unless Maroney does something like run for 1600 yards and 15 TDs. While that's certainly possible, there's also a chance that Maroney underperforms his first round status, and never attains this kind of dynasty value again. Maroney is much better suited for 25 carry games and goal line carries than Addai is, but the bottom line for both is that there's a decent chance that their value is at an all-time high. In some ways, trading Addai or Maroney right now is basically playing the law of averages - at this "jumping off" point in their career, you might be able to cash them in at a price that assumes success before either player has proven they can achieve it, risking that you trade away an uberstud on the verge of his breakout. The trade you want to aim for is a 2 or 3 for 1 where you turn one of these two young possible stud RBs into an LJ, Bush, or Gore type of back (or maybe straight up for Adrian Peterson if your team is not ready to contend). Heck, you should also try to put together a package for Tomlinson or Steven Jackson, but good luck with that. If you can't pull a deal for better RB, or maybe a lesser young RB (like Cedric Benson or DeAngelo Williams) and another stud, it's probably best to hold Addai/Maroney and hope for the best.

Chris Brown, Tennessee - Brown is a great sleeper for redraft leagues, and he might fetch a decent price in the form of draft picks/prospects from a team that has LenDale White. The amount of time Chris Brown spent as a free agent should tell you that the interest around the league was tepid at best. While Tennessee's lack of trust in White or rookie Chris Henry has caused his short term value to spike, Brown's long term value remains weak. His value could go up considerably if he wins the job and does well with it, so the best sell high moment could be in September.

Vernand Morency / Brandon Jackson, Green Bay - Try as I might, I just can't picture either of these guys locking up this job for the long haul. If you own one of them, I would try to sell him to the owner who has the other. Even more so than Brown, the best sell high moment may be to come, no matter which you own, so patience could be rewarded. The main point here is to be on the lookout for selling opportunities if you own these backs. If you do own both, selling them as a package is advisable, especially because they could split the work in a way to make both shaky week to week plays - plus this is a case where the sum is greater than the parts because your trading partner will have the assurance of owning both halves of the Green Bay RBBC. I do think each possesses enough talent to have a big game if given the chance - which plays even more into the "the true sell high moment yet to come" theory.

Jamal Lewis, Cleveland - This is a corollary to the Jerome Harrison buy low. Lewis had a few touches each game last year that made him look like Jamal of old, but the majority of them just made him look old. He's a hesitant plodder, and he lacks that unstoppable power and momentum that made him a sensation earlier in his career. Just like the other middling backs on the sell high list, patience could be a virtue here if Lewis has a big early game. There are some reports that he looks sharper than he did last season, so that's another reason to be patient, but if Lewis comes out like he did last year, with one touchdown and no hundred yard games in his first six games, he will be written off by any dynasty owners who haven't done so already.

Fred Taylor, Jacksonville - I'm actually more confident in Taylor's ability to help a fantasy team this year than Lewis', but he's closer to hanging up the spikes at age 31. Maybe Taylor has another productive year in him after 2007, but history at the RB position suggests otherwise. Warrick Dunn will be a good test case, about a year older than Taylor with around 400 more career touches. If Dunn can keep it going this year, then 2008 could be a bonus year for Taylor owners. That's the main risk that goes with trading Taylor, that you might be losing an additional year of RB2/3 production. He's unlikely to outperform his mid RB2 ceiling from last year, when the Jaguars went run happy after Byron Leftwich was shelved for the second half of the season. Unless Taylor is your key depth as RB3 on a team with a chance to win a title, you should start shopping him around.

Mike Bell, Denver / Wali Lundy, Houston - Both of these middling talents are in danger of not even making the team in 2007. It would be extremely difficult to get any value for either right now (maybe Bell would fetch a prospect or draft pick from the Travis Henry owner). This listing is more a reminder to be wary of the training camp sensations that don't have the innate talent to consistently produce above and beyond the norm. It takes a gambler's a mentality, but you have to be willing to sell at the height of the optimism (see Addai and Maroney). Both Lundy and Bell experienced sell high moments during training camp last year that were not surpassed at any point during the season. Be ready to pull the trigger on selling training camp sensations if they capture headlines unless you really believe in them.