Pre-Camp Buy Low/Sell High - Quarterbacks

  Posted 7/18 by Sigmund Bloom, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

BUY LOW

Alex Smith, QB, San Francisco - Smith entered the league at 21, and in his third year, finally has an offensive coordinator (Jim Hostler) that is crafting the game plan to his abilities. Darrell Jackson and a maturing Vernon Davis will make his weapons more potent this year. Smith also is also a threat run a few into the end zone and add occasional rushing yards. He's around the top of the third tier of fantasy QBs right now, but could zoom to the top of a second tier filled with a lot more potential than production with a strong start to 2006. His value and his game have lots of room to grow.

Byron Leftwich, QB, Jacksonville - It seemed like Leftwich was written off by the Jaguars last year, and apparently many fantasy players followed suit. It's interesting that while the Jags have reconsidered that decision, the fantasy world has not. Leftwich is almost an afterthought for redraft this year, and he's fallen into the 20s in the consensus FBG dynasty rankings. Yes, he's injury prone, and a modest fantasy producer, but he's still a classic dropback QB with a great arm whose toughness compels him to run a few touchdowns in each year. Dirk Koetter should open up the offense which helps Leftwich's short term outlook. Even though Leftwich is in a walk year, I have a good feeling that he's firmly in the top 32 quarterbacks in the league. Any team that signs him will probably look to him to start, and he should at worst maintain his current value for the next few years

Tony Romo, QB, Dallas - Tony Romo was one of the top fantasy QBs in the league from the moment he hit the field in week 7, yet there is a still a kernel of doubt in the mind of Jerry Jones, who is putting off signing Romo to a long term deal, and fantasy owners, who seem hesitant to put him in a tier befitting his tremendous first season rate of production. Yes, he did falter for the most part in weeks 13-16, and teams indeed figure out some things about Romo. Bill Parcells needed Tums as Romo was too casual with the ball. He lacked a sense of urgency and trusted his reads a little too much. I still feel good about his future because he was a proactive QB who took the game to the opponent, and you know he's a hard worker since he rose from the ranks of the undrafted free agents to become a starter. Romo set a lofty PPG ceiling last year, higher than any other QB in the second tier, and keep in mind that it was in his first season as a starter. He carries some risk, but if he only sustains last year's level of play, he won't be this cheap again for a long time.

BUY LOW and SELL HIGH

Jon Kitna, QB, Detroit - Whether Kitna is a buy low or sell high depends greatly on your roster. If you have a Peyton/Palmer/Brady/Brees/Bulger, you should sell Kitna to the highest bidder. He'll turn 35 this season, and he's in most people's top ten for redraft. Even if he hits the highest expectations for performance early in the season, his value won't grow unless a contender in your league loses their only viable starting QB to injury for the rest of the season or has a stable of busts at QB. On the other hand, if you are looking down the barrel of having to start a second tier (or worse) QB, Kitna is a prudent investment. If the team you are looking to pry him from is valuing him as their starter, the price might be a little high, but you do have the chance of getting hidden value in the form of a 2nd year - there is also upside to spare for 2007 with the addition of Calvin Johnson. If I could use Kitna, I would part with a 2008 second rounder for him all day. If I couldn't, a 2008 second would seem like a decent return for him - value is in the eye of the beholder.

SELL HIGH

Eli Manning, QB, New York Giants - At this point, I am feeling pretty confident that Eli lacks the fire to take his game to the next level. His stats and his play dropped off sharply as the season went on last year, and he enters a new offense without star RB Tiki Barber or a proven left tackle. I don't really believe in Eli, but even if I did, he's facing a tough situation. If Manning performs like he did last year, the Giants are going to start making other plans at QB. He's as close to David Carr as he is to some of the QBs around him in the FBG consensus dynasty rankings.

Rex Grossman, QB, Chicago - Grossman is at a huge crossroads in his career. A good start to 2007, and he could secure a long term extension and keys to the Chicago offense for the foreseeable future. A bad start and he could have his ticket punched for QB purgatory. While Grossman has a good arm and seems to make great throws when he's comfortable, I think defenses are going to sell out to continue to expose his glaring lack of pocket presence. QBs who blindly throw the ball up for grabs when they are harassed don't last too long as starters. Even if Grossman does hold on to the Chicago starting job, I would not feel comfortable starting him after seeing some of the horrid showings that put him in the negatives a few weeks last year. When Grossman is bad, he's bad enough that he can sink an otherwise successful fantasy week. Trade him while others still think that big things are possible in his future.

Charlie Frye, QB, Cleveland - I'm not sure you can get much for Charlie Frye at this point, but the FBG consensus dynasty rankings puts him above QBs I'd happily trade him for, like Jeff Garcia, Matt Cassel, and Troy Smith. Frye has missed his chance to be the Browns franchise QB, and maybe even 2007 opening day starter, as Derek Anderson seems to have the early edge there. Soon enough, the team will be Brady Quinn's, and Frye will have started his laps on the backup circuit.

Joey Harrington, QB, Atlanta - Try to trade him to the Vick owner while the specter of a suspension still looms. Harrington helped the case that he still has fantasy value by putting up a few OK games last year. He doesn't, and this is a "get (value) while the gettin's good" situation.

Damon Huard, QB, Kansas City - It's hard to picture Huard having much more value than he does right now. Yes, he performed admirably in his stint last year, but if your starting QB is Huard, I think you're probably hurting regardless. I do also think that the Chiefs would be smart to start Huard and let Brodie Croyle continue to develop for another season. Still, the franchise wants Croyle to win the job, meaning Huard would almost have to be an all-pro to keep them from being tempted to plug Croyle later on in even if Huard does win the job in camp. There's also the fact that he would be running a Herm Edwards offense, and the fact that QBs don't usually break out in their mid 30s. I especially like the idea of trading a Croyle/Huard package if you've got it, I don't see either being the starter in KC in 2-3 years.

Chris Simms, QB, Tampa Bay - Simms has fallen from the top of the Tampa depth chart, maybe as far as a fourth, which wouldn't even guarantee him a roster spot come September. Simms may not be fully recovered from his ruptured spleen, and it's not like he was lighting the world on fire before that epic injury. Simms will continue to seem to have potential as the statuesque athletic QB with a big arm and a great pedigree, but besides a spike when value when another team gets taken in by the illusion of talent that is Simms, he's unlikely to have fantasy value in the future.