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Eyes of the Guru Update
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Posted 8/23 by John Norton - , Exclusive to Footballguys.com
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I had not planned to do EOTG updates prior to
week one. Fortunately time has allowed me this opportunity and there are a lot
of things to take about so here we go.
Arizona Cardinals
Two weeks into the pre-season the Cardinals are no more settled at LB than they
were heading into training camp but some things are beginning to take shape. The
coaching staff is pleased with the progress of Calvin Pace who continues to run
with the first unit at SLB and has become a strong candidate to keep the job.
Meanwhile Gerald Hayes has returned to practice and is making a positive
impression. In the team's first two pre-season games Pace started on the strong
side with James Darling in the middle and Orlando Huff on the weak side. Hayes
worked with the second unit in the opener and really turned some heads. He
finished with a game high 7 tackles, intercepted a pass and forced a fumble. In
the game versus New England he was much less impressive in the box scores but
still looked pretty decent on the field while seeing some action with the first
team D. Hayes success adds more fuel to reports that the coaching staff is now
contemplating putting Karlos Dansby at WLB if he ever returns to action. Dansby
went for a second opinion on his ailing toe and the word is he won't need
surgery, but so far there is no target date for his return. Hayes is a guy to
keep an eye on heading into pre-season week 3 and Dansby's stock is beginning to
slip with the injury concern. Toe problems can make great players into very
average ones real quickly. Just look at what happened to Charles Grant last
season.
Buffalo Bills
The Bills dropped a bomb on us a couple of weeks ago when they unexpectedly
switched Takeo Spikes to SLB and Angelo Crowell to WLB. This move obviously has
major box score implications. Crowell proved last season that he is a very good
WLB. He is fast, has good cover skills and a surprising knack for making big
plays. Between Spikes and Crowell the Bills WLB position yielded 91-46-4 in '05
with 3 forced fumbles and a pair of picks. The team should show improvement and
having Spikes on the field will have a little impact even if he is at SLB, but
the WLB position still provides us a quality option. The Bills are looking for
Spikes to be a big play difference maker from SLB and are likely to use him in a
role similar to that of Marcus Washington, Karlos Dansby and Adalius Thomas.
What we need to learn soon as possible is who will be on the field in passing
situations? That will be a huge factor in the box scores. Since Spikes has yet
to play in the pre-season, we are left completely in the dark on this one... One
other note of interest here. Ryan Denney has apparently beaten out Chris Kelsay
for the starting job at DE opposite Schobel. That however, doesn't necessarily
mean anything. If they continue to share time the box score results should look
about the same for both guys.
Cincinnati Bengals
We have been waiting a long time for Justin Smith to have a
breakout year and if the game against Buffalo is any indication, he may finally
have arrived. Smith was moved back to right DE this year in hope of jumpstarting
both he and the Bengals pass rush. He responded by leading the team in tackles
and dumping JP Losman on his can twice on Friday night. While this is certainly
reason for optimism, keep in mind that the sacks came in the second quarter. I
didn't see if the Bills still had their #1 OL in the game but considering
Loseman was still in there, they probably did. For what its worth, Smith is in a
contract year... If your league requires corners keep an eye on Keiwan Ratliff.
He's trying to make a run at replacing Tory James and is getting some attention.
Ratliff has made some impressive plays in the two pre-season games including a
pair of picks and TD return. He's also hurt himself a little by getting beat on
a couple of plays. All in all he's made a positive impression and has shown the
big play ability that Marvin Lewis loves... One more quick note of interest to
some, A.J. Nicholson worked with the second team at MLB this week instead of
Ahmad Brooks who saw very little action.
Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles WLB position has not been a traditionally productive one but that
could have a lot to do with the average players who have worked there in recent
years. Second year man Matt McCoy continues to work as the starter and may have
secured the job already but Shawn Barber is beginning to see action. According
to reports the Eagles will look at working Barber in as the nickel and dime
package linebacker. That move would in essence have Barber sharing time with
McCoy and would ruin them both in box score terms. If one of them should emerge
as an every down player he would be a solid pickup. There are reports that the
coaching staff plans to take a look at Barber on the strong side as well.
New York Giants
Dynasty owners, if its not too late to get your hands on Mathias Kiwanuka you
need to do it. This kid has drawn rave reviews since the beginning of camp and
gave us all a little glimpse of why against the Chiefs. Kiwanuka went 2-1-1 and
forced a fumble. Granted his playing time came against second team opponents but
the kid just looks smooth. Kiwanuka looks like the next Will Smith and Strahan
can't play forever... Carlos Emmons is still waiting for medical clearance,
meanwhile Brandon Short is filling the position and possible making a case to
keep it.
Kansas City Chiefs
Sammy Knight is still working with the first team at SS but Bernard Pollard
continues to close the gap. Pollard saw a few snaps with the first defense
against the Giants in the second pre-season game but worked mostly with the
second team. He didn't fail to impress however. In less than 2 quarters of
action Pollard went 3-1-0, forced and recovered a fumble. Meanwhile Knight had a
very slow evening and did nothing to distinguish himself. This situation puts us
between a rock and a hard spot. Pollard is very likely to claim this job
sometime during the season but how do we know when? Pollard is undoubtedly the
long term answer to the who who I grab question but for the immediate future the
only safe play is to grab them both and play Knight until Herman Edwards pulls
the trigger. This position is so productive that it's worth 2 roster spots to
ensure that you have it locked up... Kawika Mitchell has been nothing short of
impressive through 2 pre-season games. He's making plays all over the field and
is staying on the field in all passing situations. He's entering his third
season and is beginning to have the look of an elite fantasy LB.
Cleveland Browns
Chaun Thompson missed some time with a calf injury which allowed rookie D'Quell
Jackson to seemingly take control of the competition for the RILB job. While
Jackson may still have the edge, the job apparently remains in contention.
Thompson returned to full speed practice following the Browns second pre-season
game and went right back to work with the first team. Lets see who starts and
what happens in game three before we anoint Jackson the winner... Sean Jones
didn't make a big splash in the box scores against the Lions but he made some
nice plays and continues to lead the battle for the SS position. He seems to
have made great strides in pass coverage which had been the negative that held
him back for the past couple of seasons. Brodney Pool made more tackles but saw
action exclusively with the second team defense. It's looking more and more like
Jones will be the guy.
Detroit Lions
A lot of people jumped right on the Boss Bailey band wagon as soon as he took
the first snap at MLB. I sure hope those people weren't expecting a long ride.
Bailey practiced for only a few days before the wheel came off the wagon and he
headed back to the trainers room with a new injury. He is now nursing a sore
hamstring that caused him to skip the Browns game. According to the Lions staff,
Bailey is expected to see action in the third pre-season game but I'll believe
it when I see it at this point. What we really need to see is Bailey heading to
the team bus after the game without crutches, wheelchair or an ice pack on
something... Teddy Lehman is still not close to returning. It's looking more and
more like he could open the season on the PUP and not be eligible to play until
after week 6... The good news here is that Ernie Sims continues to impress and
has finally been officially promoted to starter at WLB. He's healthy and in line
to tear up the box scores until/unless Lehman or Bailey become a factor. Against
Cleveland the Lions started Alex Lewis at WLB, Levar Woods at MLB and Paris
Lenon at SLB. The result was ugly if you are a Lions fan. It will be a long
season in Detroit if we continue to see a lot of these three guys... Another
interesting not on the Lions is that Daniel Bullocks did not start the game
despite rreports that he had been moved into the starting lineup. Terrence Holt
got the call instead. In fact Jon McGraw even got on the field ahead of Bullocks
who didn't play until late in the second quarter. To his credit, Bullocks looked
good against the Browns backups but that doesn't help when you are looking at
your potential starting lineup for week 1... James Hall is looking real strong.
He played most of last year with a sore groin which put a kink in his sack
production but in little more than a quarter of action versus Cleveland he went
3-1-1 and forced a fumble... Kalimba Edwards didn't get the start against the
Browns but it looks like he is seeing more playing time on early downs. This
could lead to very useful numbers for us.
Chicago Bears
Mike Brown continues to sit with what is being termed a strained Achilles. When
the initial reports of the injury came out it sounded much worse. The injury is
not season threatening at this point but there is still concern that he may not
be able to go in the opener and possibly beyond. News of the injury hit just as
I was finishing last weeks projections and I jumped the gun a little. Based on
the initial reports I stuck Danieal Manning in there with starting SS numbers.
Against San Diego the Bears shifted Chris Harris over to SS and inserted manning
at FS. Both of the Bears safety position have a history of strong box score
production but the SS is generally the fantasy gem here. I am very high on
Manning who has a bright future at either position so keep an eye on the
situation, especially if you are sitting on Brown.
San Diego Chargers
Back in June we were hearing all about how Marlon McCree was the answer at FS
and Clinton Hart was working as the starter at SS. Yet through 2 pre-season
games neither of those guys has been in the starting lineup. Terrence Kiel has
started both games at SS and looks like the same guy who put up 72-25-1 in 14
starts back in '04. Kiel struggled with nagging injuries all last season but is
showing no ill effects. He's playing faster and hitting harder than last year
and looks to be tightening his grip on the starting job. Meanwhile despite all
the hype, McCree has not been able to unseat Bhawoh Jue from the drivers seat at
FS. McCree is the best pass defender among the safety group but the coaching
staff likes Jue and seems to see him as the more complete player. The FS
position in San Diego doesn't have a great deal of fantasy implication but the
SS does. Kiel has been falling into the very late rounds in all the drafts I
have seen and could be a post round 20 steal... With Donnie Edwards being nicked
up and disgruntled it's no surprise that he has been sitting out the pre-season
thus far. There are rumblings of possible trades while Edwards and Chargers
ownership spar verbally in the media. With Edwards sitting the club is getting
more and more comfortable with Matt Wilhelm in the lineup. Meanwhile Randall
Godfrey has all but anointed Stephen Cooper as the starter at the other ILB
position. Godfrey has missed some practice time and has not played in either
pre-season game despite not being injured. The team sites his time off as
"veteran rest". Godfrey contemplated retirement during the off-season but
elected to return for one more season. Speaking about Cooper he said "he's ready
(for the starting job), I'm not going to give it to him though." If the club
doesn't trade Edwards is would come as no surprise to see Godfrey cut before the
opener. I mentioned in the initial EOTG that Wilhelm and Cooper could be the
starting ILB tandem by '07. It looks like Cooper could get a head start. Don't
overlook the fact that Cooper is playing the LILB position which is generally
the most fantasy productive of the inside backers in a 3-4. Edwards plays RILB
and has been the exception to that rule over the past few seasons but a changing
of the guard could make Cooper the man to have here in the near future.
Carolina Panthers
The competition is ongoing at WLB in Carolina but it appears that veteran Na'il
Diggs will open the season as the starter. Keith Adams is rumored to be on the
outside of the roster bubble and the coaching staff is a little reluctant to go
with rookie James Anderson in a season where they have Super Bowl aspirations.
Diggs is a serviceable veteran but has very little chance at making a box score
splash. Anderson saw action with the starters against Jacksonville and is likely
the long term answer. He could move into the lineup during the season,
especially considering Diggs history of injuries... The bigger question in
Carolina is who will replace Dan Morgan when he is injured? The coaching staff
believes second year pro Adam Seward can handle that task if called upon. Seward
was been strong through the two pre-season contests and is a player the Panthers
were high on coming into the season. He is one of the reasons they were willing
to let Will Witherspoon leave. Tuck the name away in your memory and jump on
Seward the first time you see Morgan limp off the field or trot off holding
something... Many of us spent early picks on Thomas Davis in last year's dynasty
rookie drafts and have been very disappointed with the turn of events thus far.
Those of us who are still sitting on him at this point may end up having the
last laugh. Yes he's stuck at SLB but Thomas is staying on the field in the
nickel package and has looked very good in the new role. He isn't playing the
traditional SLB duties, instead the coaches have him moving around the formation
with a very aggressive attitude. Thomas is flying around the field just like the
last guy to wear #58 (Mark Fields). Against Jacksonville he recorded 4 tackles
in just about a quarter and a half of action.
Green Bay Packers
There is not much new to report on the LB situation. Barnett is still working in
the middle and Hodge is still backing him up, at least for now. Barnett chimed
in on the idea of his moving to WLB and was adamant that he is a middle
linebacker. He went on to say that he would move outside if the club insisted
but hinted that if he were moved it would take a contract extension and a raise
to make him happy about it. The soap opera continues... Early word out of the
Green Bay camp was that Hodge had been more impressive than Hawk. In the first
pre-season action Hawk looked slow to react and not at all comfortable. He
looked much better in game two against Atlanta and seemed to be reacting without
thinking as much... The interesting situation in Green Bay is at SS where
Marquand Manuel has been out with a calf injury and backup Marviel Underwood has
already been lost for the season. Against Atlanta rookie 6th round pick Tyrone
Culver was plugged into the lineup and the kid really turned some heads. He had
been working at FS but may have a new job after making plays all over the field,
leading the club in tackles for the game and making a very nice play on a big
interception. At the least he is likely to become the top backup at both
positions and Manuel may want to get back on the field soon while he still has a
starting job. Its a situation to keep a serious eye on.
Minnesota Vikings
The season ending knee injury suffered by Chad Greenway sheds a whole new light
on the Vikings LB situation. E.J. Henderson has supposedly been playing the best
football of his career and according to the coaching staff is a great fit in
their new scheme. With Greenway out of the picture Henderson should be one of
the team's nickel linebackers and may even see time in the dime. He becomes the
best fantasy option of the group, at least at this point. Ben Leber has locked
up the SLB job but doesn't play on passing downs which leaves only the MLB job
undecided. Napoleon Harris opened as the starter in each of the first 2
pre-season games but Dontarrious Thomas has been making some noise. Thomas is
the Vikings best linebacker when it comes to coverage skills and is all but
certain to replace Harris in passing situations. He has looked very good in
general thus far and there are rumblings that he could get a shot at the full
time role over the next couple of weeks. Thomas demonstrated a lot of box score
potential as a rookie in '04 when he started a few games. If he somehow comes
away as the starter here he would be an every down player and should make a very
strong pickup.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Shelton Quarles sat out the team's second pre-season game after practicing just
once a day during training camps two a day schedule. There doesn't seem to be
anything ailing with the soon to be 35 year old who was likely just getting some
"veteran rest". That said, he probably doesn't want everyone to get too good a
look at Barrett Ruud or Quarles may end up getting a lot of rest. Ruud made the
start against Miami and displayed the reasons that the Bucks sent a second round
pick on him a couple of years back. He recorded 5-3-1 and forced a fumble
against the Dolphins and only played 4 series in the game. It's only a matter of
time and I have to seriously wonder after this performance, if the coaching
staff isn't considering making a move with him sooner rather than later.
St. Louis Rams
just a quick note here. Pisa Tinoisamoa is looking very strong in the Rams new
scheme. He went 3-0-1 in a half game against the Texans. The new attacking
scheme has made a world of difference. I only got to see a couple of series in
that game but Tinoisamoa seemed to be everywhere. I'll make it a point to try
and get a better look at him in week pre-3.
Dallas Cowboys
Everyone expected rookie Bobby Carpenter to step in at OLB in the Dallas 3-4 but
after working him there for much of the off-season, the Cowboys threw us a curve
by moving him inside. Apparently the coaching staff has liked what they have
seen since they traded Scott Shanle to the Saints and moved Carpenter up to #2
behind Akinola Ayodele at RILB which the Cowboys call the "joker" position. How
long he remains "behind" Ayodele remains to be seen... Greg Ellis continues to
work at OLB and has taken to the new position surprisingly well. Most leagues
still have him listed at DE. As a 3-4 OLB being scores as a DE, Ellis could be
very productive.
New Orleans Saints
The Saints are really struggling at linebacker. After Anthony Simmons left them
at the alter and retired, they re-shuffled the alignment and put Scott Fugita at
SLB. Alfred Finched worked at MLB for a while but got the hook for the teams
second pre-season game in favor of journeyman Jay Foreman. Foreman made 7
tackles against the Cowboys but he looked horrible. In fact the entire Saints
first team D was ugly. After apparently giving up on Fincher and seeing Foreman
struggle the Saints pulled the trigger on a trade with Dallas for Scott Shanle.
I'm not certain how much of an improvement Shanle will be but apparently the
Saints believe he can't be any worse. look for him to get a shot at the starting
MLB job right away as the Saints quickly try to plug holes before the opener.
Shanle has looked good at times with Dallas but has not been very consistent.
Keep an eye on him however, as this s a very high potential position... Maybe an
even bigger surprise was Jay Bellamy getting the start over Josh Bullocks at SS.
Bellamy didn't look very good either so Bullocks owners shouldn't panic just
yet. There are still 2 more preseason games... What was not such a surprise is
that rookie Roman Harper made the start at FS... There is a ton of fantasy
production to be found with the Saints defense but until they settle some
issues, we should probably avoid everyone but the defensive ends.
That covers most of the important updates
through the second round of pre-season games. Until week one,
Just Win Baby!
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