David Yudkin - Running Back Turnover for the Fantasy Playoffs

Many leagues haven't even drafted yet, but it's never too early to start strategizing about the fantasy playoffs. Sometimes teams are fortunate enough to have a solid regular season but then peter out in the fantasy post-season. Similar to the regular season, having strong RB production is an integral part to any playoff run, but most people are not fully aware at just how much things change in NFL backfields by the end of the season.

About this time of year, fantasy owners scamper to scoop up running backs early in fantasy drafts. While rostering a lot of running backs makes a lot of sense, owners have to pay a draft day premium based on current market conditions based on a snapshot of team depth charts heading into the season. However, many times you have to overpay due to the limited number of starting running backs that play in the NFL.

I revisited what's happened with running backs over the past few years, and the numbers are a bit staggering. To set some baseline ground rules, I made the assumption that the fantasy playoffs would occur in Weeks 14-16. With the fantasy playoffs being a win or go home proposition, I grouped the three weeks almost as one because you need to win in all of them if you want to win your league title. In the NFL, someone lined up at running back in the backfield to play that game, and if your guy wasn't that guy, you could be out of the playoffs.

Over the past three seasons, adding up the total number of teams (32) times the number of seasons (3) would mean that there were 96 running backs that were tabbed as "starters" on opening day and were expected to be the primary ball carrier for their team. There may be a few instances where there wasn't a 100% defined starter, but I used the player that started the year with the majority share of the workload. Here's how things looked at the end of the season. Colored fields were primary running backs that were different than the Week 1 primary running back.

2005	Week 1	Week 14	Week 15	Week 16
BAL	Lewis	Taylor	Lewis	Lewis
BUF	McGahee	McGahee	McGahee	McGahee
CIN	Johnson	Johnson	Johnson	Johnson
CLE	Droughns	Droughns	Droughns	Droughns
DEN	Anderson	Bell	Anderson	Bell
HOU	Davis	Davis	Wells	Wells
IND	James	James	James	James
JAX	Taylor	Taylor	Taylor	Taylor
KC	Holmes	Johnson	Johnson	Johnson
MIA	Brown	Williams	Williams	Williams
NE	Dillon	Dillon	Dillon	Dillon
NYJ	Martin	Houston	Houston	Blaylock
OAK	Jordan	Jordan	Jordan	Crockett
PIT	Parker	Parker	Parker	Parker
SD	Tomlinson	Tomlinson	Tomlinson	Tomlinson
TEN	Brown	Brown	Brown	Henry
ARI	Arrington	Arrington	Shipp	Shipp
ATL	Dunn	Dunn	Dunn	Dunn
CAR	Davis	Foster	Foster	Foster
CHI	Jones	Jones	Jones	Jones
DAL	Jones	Barber	Jones	Jones
DET	Jones	Pinner	Pinner	Pinner
GB	Green	Gado	Gado	Herron
MIN	Bennett	Bennett	Bennett	Moore
NO	McAllister	Smith	Stecker	Smith
NYG	Barber	Barber	Barber	Barber
PHI	Westbrook	Moats	Moats	Moats
SEA	Alexander	Alexander	Alexander	Alexander
SF	Barlow	Barlow	Gore	Gore
STL	Jackson	Jackson	Jackson	Jackson
TB	Williams	Williams	Williams	Williams
WAS	Portis	Portis	Portis	Portis
.	17 teams		20 alternate RBs

2004	Week 1	Week 14	Week 15	Week 16
BAL	Lewis	Taylor	Lewis	Lewis
BUF	Henry	McGahee	McGahee	McGahee
CIN	Johnson	Johnson	Johnson	Johnson
CLE	Green	Green	Suggs	Suggs
DEN	Griffin	Bell	Bell	Droughns
HOU	Davis	Davis	Davis	Davis
IND	James	James	James	James
JAX	Taylor	Taylor	Taylor	Jones
KC	Holmes	Johnson	Johnson	Johnson
MIA	Gordon	Morris	Morris	Morris
NE	Dillon	Dillon	Dillon	Dillon
NYJ	Martin	Martin	Martin	Martin
OAK	Wheatley	Zereoue	Crockett	Crockett
PIT	Staley	Bettis	Bettis	Bettis
SD	Tomlinson	Tomlinson	Tomlinson	Tomlinson
TEN	Brown	Smith	Smith	Smith
ARI	Smith	Smith	Smith	Smith
ATL	Dunn	Dunn	Dunn	Dunn
CAR	Davis	Goings	Goings	Goings
CHI	Jones	Jones	Jones	Jones
DAL	George	Jones	Jones	Jones
DET	Jones	Jones	Jones	Jones
GB	Green	Green	Green	Green
MIN	Smith	Smith	Bennett	Bennett
NO	McAllister	McAllister	McAllister	McAllister
NYG	Barber	Barber	Barber	Barber
PHI	Westbrook	Westbrook	Westbrook	Levens
SEA	Alexander	Alexander	Alexander	Alexander
SF	Barlow	Hicks	Hicks	Barlow
STL	Faulk	Harris	Faulk	Jackson
TB	Garner	Pittman	Pittman	Pittman
WAS	Portis	Portis	Portis	Portis
.	17 teams		20 alternate RBs

2003	Week 1	Week 14	Week 15	Week 16
BAL	Lewis	Lewis	Lewis	Lewis
BUF	Henry	Henry	Henry	Henry
CIN	Dillon	Dillon	Johnson	Johnson
CLE	Green	White	White	Suggs
DEN	Portis	Portis	Portis	Griffin
HOU	Mack	Hollings	Davis	Davis
IND	James	James	James	James
JAX	Taylor	Taylor	Taylor	Taylor
KC	Holmes	Holmes	Holmes	Holmes
MIA	Williams	Williams	Williams	Williams
NE	Smith	Smith	Smith	Smith
NYJ	Martin	Martin	Martin	Martin
OAK	Garner	Wheatley	Wheatley	Wheatley
PIT	Zereoue	Bettis	Bettis	Bettis
SD	Tomlinson	Tomlinson	Tomlinson	Tomlinson
TEN	George	George	George	George
ARI	Smith	Shipp	Shipp	Shipp
ATL	Dunn	Duckett	Duckett	Duckett
CAR	Davis	Davis	Davis	Foster
CHI	Thomas	Thomas	Thomas	Thomas
DAL	Hambrick	Hambrick	Hambrick	Hambrick
DET	Gary	Bryson	Bryson	Pinner
GB	Green	Green	Green	Green
MIN	Williams	Bennett	Smith	Smith
NO	McAllister	McAllister	McAllister	McAllister
NYG	Barber	Barber	Barber	Barber
PHI	Staley	Buckhalter	Westbrook	Staley
SEA	Alexander	Alexander	Alexander	Alexander
SF	Hearst	Barlow	Barlow	Barlow
STL	Faulk	Faulk	Faulk	Faulk
TB	Jones	Jones	Jones	Jones
WAS	Canidate	Canidate	Cartwright	Cartwright
.	14 teams		19 alternate RBs

Looking at how things played out by the END of the season, here's what happened:

48 of those 96 teams had a different RB as the primary ball carrier in at least one of those three playoff weeks.
Over that three-year span, there were 59 running backs that were the primary ball carrier in one of those weeks but were not the primary ball carrier in Week 1.
There were 43 running backs that were the primary ball carrier in Week 16 but not the go-to guy in Week 1. That's 45% of the time where the guy in the fantasy Super Bowl was not the guy that started the year as the No. 1