Fantasy information, fantasy Fantasy news, Fantasy articles, Fantasy rankings           Fantasy Football Info For Serious Players


Forums
News
Login / Signup  
  Home  
Articles
•  Forecast  
•  Humor  
•  Links  
•  Players  
•  Stats  
•  Tools  
•  Updates  
 
Variation in NFL Team Defensive Production (1996 - 2005)

There has been a lot of debate as to when to draft a team defense in redraft leagues, and over the years I have seen the first one come off the board in single digit rounds while many times other owners take one with their very last pick. While it is clearly important to have at a minimum an average defense, many times the investment in a projected top defense is too costly. On many occasions, defenses get drafted similar to their rankings and production from the previous season. This got my thinking as to how NFL defenses have performed from one year to the next. I did some digging and here's what I found.

For starters, scoring for team defenses in fantasy football is SO VARIED that it would be impossible to define a standard scoring system. Reviewing the leagues that I personally play in, some give or take away points for yardage and points allowed (and some ignore either category). Many have different point values for turnovers, some count forced fumbles but not others, some count blocked kicks and special teams touchdowns, etc. The bottom line is that the scoring systems are all quite different. Because of that, the rankings for defenses in each league were somewhat varied, although rarely did a team have a radical difference in its ranking from one league to the next.

I elected to look only at NFL rankings for each franchise with regard to points allowed and yardage allowed. That's it--no turnovers, sacks, return TD, safeties scored, or anything else. In theory, if a defense minimizes the yardage and points it gives up, the odds are pretty good that it will do well fantasy wise. Getting accurate numbers for all the other categories would be a challenge, as few sites list all the information in an easily accessible format. In reviewing data in those other categories, I have concluded (without thorough review and analysis) that many times there is no rhyme or reason for which teams do well in those categories. Over the years, defensive TD, turnovers, safeties, and the like vary greatly from year to year. Sacks can often stay within a range, but for the most part many of these peripheral categories are difficult to predict.

I added each team's yearend ranking in points and yardage allowed for each of the past 10 seasons. The best a team could do in any season would be a score of 2 (ranking first in both categories). The worst a team could do in any season would be a score of 64 (ranking last in both categories). Four teams did have a year with a perfect score of 2. No team was so anemic to score a 64, but 11 teams did score 60 or higher. Again, in theory, dividing the number by 2 would give an approximate ranking for where the team might have ranked defensively in that given year.

To make things a bit easier to understand, I made a color-coded table to help people visualize how teams performed each year. Teams in the top 3 colors (red, orange, yellow) should be considered in the top half of the league (Top 15) and those in the other categories would be below average to poor.

Points Ranges / Color Coding
2-10
11-20
21-30
31-40
41-50
51-60
61-63
Tm
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
Avg
TB

9

14

9

2

14

19

6

7

5

18

10.3

Pit

7

2

24

23

10

13

22

17

16

7

14.1

Den

19

14

12

20

30

48

17

20

11

11

20.2

Mia

33

28

14

7

16

9

23

4

41

35

21

Dal

22

43

3

29

22

39

13

20

16

5

21.2

GB

27

48

27

17

19

29

27

16

14

2

22.6

Bal

15

12

10

41

8

2

8

39

45

58

23.8

Jac

12

18

24

29

28

25

6

42

39

34

25.7

Buf

53

10

7

42

50

21

3

22

34

16

25.8

Phi

50

12

29

8

9

14

47

38

36

26

26.9

NE

43

11

8

38

30

35

16

32

27

34

27.4

NYJ

35

11

28

38

29

21

28

8

29

56

28.3

NYG

38

30

55

13

32

10

34

29

24

24

28.9

Was

18

8

47

25

21

12

53

50

25

41

30

Car

8

36

18

7

59

39

52

57

26

14

31.6

Chi

3

34

34

50

14

36

51

36

39

23

32

Ten

48

57

26

20

50

4

33

26

34

22

32

Ind

13

48

30

15

60

36

33

58

34

40

36.7

SD

26

29

58

52

27

43

22

19

47

47

37

Oak

52

61

56

18

34

28

29

24

58

15

37.5

StL

61

42

34

36

10

55

11

37

37

52

37.5

SF

62

56

36

32

21

58

58

37

4

13

37.7

KC

41

60

48

60

45

39

23

31

16

28

39.1

Cle

28

39

26

29

38

55

60

 

 

 

39.3

Sea

23

48

35

51

38

56

31

38

29

51

40

NO

42

60

32

54

46

21

48

47

23

33

40.6

Det

41

40

46

62

56

24

35

40

24

43

41.1

Atl

40

28

62

31

54

49

40

12

42

59

41.7

Min

40

54

48

56

54

53

45

21

49

31

45.1

Ari

34

24

56

58