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Variation in NFL Team Defensive Production (1996 - 2005)
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Posted 8/14 by David Yudkin, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
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There has been a lot of debate as to when to draft a team defense in redraft
leagues, and over the years I have seen the first one come off the board in
single digit rounds while many times other owners take one with their very last
pick. While it is clearly important to have at a minimum an average defense,
many times the investment in a projected top defense is too costly. On many
occasions, defenses get drafted similar to their rankings and production from
the previous season. This got my thinking as to how NFL defenses have performed
from one year to the next. I did some digging and here's what I found.
For starters, scoring for team defenses in fantasy football is SO VARIED that
it would be impossible to define a standard scoring system. Reviewing the leagues
that I personally play in, some give or take away points for yardage and points
allowed (and some ignore either category). Many have different point values
for turnovers, some count forced fumbles but not others, some count blocked
kicks and special teams touchdowns, etc. The bottom line is that the scoring
systems are all quite different. Because of that, the rankings for defenses
in each league were somewhat varied, although rarely did a team have a radical
difference in its ranking from one league to the next.
I elected to look only at NFL rankings for each franchise with regard to points
allowed and yardage allowed. That's it--no turnovers, sacks, return TD, safeties
scored, or anything else. In theory, if a defense minimizes the yardage and
points it gives up, the odds are pretty good that it will do well fantasy wise.
Getting accurate numbers for all the other categories would be a challenge,
as few sites list all the information in an easily accessible format. In reviewing
data in those other categories, I have concluded (without thorough review and
analysis) that many times there is no rhyme or reason for which teams do well
in those categories. Over the years, defensive TD, turnovers, safeties, and
the like vary greatly from year to year. Sacks can often stay within a range,
but for the most part many of these peripheral categories are difficult to predict.
I added each team's yearend ranking in points and yardage allowed for each
of the past 10 seasons. The best a team could do in any season would be a score
of 2 (ranking first in both categories). The worst a team could do in any season
would be a score of 64 (ranking last in both categories). Four teams did have
a year with a perfect score of 2. No team was so anemic to score a 64, but 11
teams did score 60 or higher. Again, in theory, dividing the number by 2 would
give an approximate ranking for where the team might have ranked defensively
in that given year.
To make things a bit easier to understand, I made a color-coded table to help
people visualize how teams performed each year. Teams in the top 3 colors (red,
orange, yellow) should be considered in the top half of the league (Top 15)
and those in the other categories would be below average to poor.
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Points Ranges / Color Coding
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2-10
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11-20
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21-30
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31-40
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41-50
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51-60
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61-63
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Tm
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2005
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2004
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2003
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2002
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2001
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2000
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1999
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1998
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1997
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1996
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Avg
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TB
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9
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14
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9
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2
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14
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19
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6
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7
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5
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18
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10.3
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Pit
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7
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2
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24
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23
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10
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13
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22
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17
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16
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7
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14.1
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Den
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19
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14
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12
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20
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30
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48
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17
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20
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11
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11
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20.2
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Mia
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33
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28
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14
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7
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16
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9
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23
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4
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41
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35
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21
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Dal
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22
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43
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3
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29
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22
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39
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13
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20
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16
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5
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21.2
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GB
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27
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48
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27
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17
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19
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29
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27
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16
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14
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2
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22.6
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Bal
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15
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12
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10
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41
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8
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2
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8
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39
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45
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58
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23.8
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Jac
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12
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18
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24
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29
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28
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25
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6
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42
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39
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34
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25.7
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Buf
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53
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10
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7
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42
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50
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21
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3
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22
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34
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16
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25.8
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Phi
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50
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12
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29
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8
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9
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14
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47
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38
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36
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26
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26.9
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NE
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43
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11
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8
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38
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30
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35
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16
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32
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27
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34
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27.4
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NYJ
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35
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11
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28
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38
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29
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21
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28
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8
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29
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56
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28.3
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NYG
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38
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30
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55
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13
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32
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10
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34
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29
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24
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24
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28.9
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Was
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18
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8
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47
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25
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21
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12
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53
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50
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25
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41
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30
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Car
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8
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36
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18
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7
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59
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39
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52
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57
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26
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14
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31.6
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Chi
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3
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34
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34
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50
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14
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36
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51
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36
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39
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23
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32
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Ten
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48
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57
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26
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20
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50
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4
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33
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26
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34
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22
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32
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Ind
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13
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48
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30
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15
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60
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36
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33
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58
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34
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40
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36.7
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SD
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26
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29
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58
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52
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27
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43
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22
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19
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47
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47
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37
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Oak
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52
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61
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56
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18
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34
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28
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29
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24
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58
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15
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37.5
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StL
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61
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42
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34
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36
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10
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55
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11
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37
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37
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52
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37.5
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SF
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62
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56
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36
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32
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21
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58
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58
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37
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4
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13
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37.7
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KC
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41
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60
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48
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60
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45
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39
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23
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31
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16
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28
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39.1
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Cle
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28
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39
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26
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29
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38
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55
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60
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39.3
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Sea
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23
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48
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35
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51
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38
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56
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31
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38
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29
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51
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40
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NO
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42
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60
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32
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54
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46
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21
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48
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47
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23
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33
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40.6
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Det
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41
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40
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46
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62
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56
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24
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35
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40
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24
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43
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41.1
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Atl
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40
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28
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62
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31
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54
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49
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40
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12
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42
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59
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41.7
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Min
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40
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54
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48
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56
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54
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53
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45
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21
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49
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31
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45.1
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Ari
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34
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24
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56
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58
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