As many of you know, there is a group of Footballguys, myself included, that take great pleasure in the use of statistical analysis as a means to succeed in fantasy football. Traditionally, we do much of our work leading up to the draft, using historical trends analysis and number crunching to help fine tune our annual projections for players and teams. But statistical analysis can, when used in conjunction with logical reasoning and sound football acumen, be useful during the season, as well. With that in mind, I will attempt to address some relevant in-season issues each and every week, with a statistical slant of course…

One Week Does Not A Season Make, QB Edition…

There's nothing quite like Week 1 of the football season, is there? After days, weeks, months of preparation, careful and masterful drafting, and a lot of meaningless preseason game action, the players are finally playing for keeps. And that, of course, means we fantasy football enthusiasts are also finally racking up points in the hopes of proving ourselves a cut above our fellow competitors.

And then comes Week One. Your masterful perfect draft ends up yielding you a tough loss; thanks in no small part to disappointing play from your top picks. Nothing is more unnerving and frustrating then getting your tail whooped in the first game of the year, it can make you second guess your entire draft strategy.

In any event, I'm here to remind new and old alike that ONE WEEK DOES NOT A SEASON MAKE. No team is likely as good (or bad as the case may be) as Week 1 scores indicate and it's important to remember this as you attempt to progress through the 17 weeks of insanity we otherwise call the NFL regular season. With that in mind, owners likely are having more reasons to second guess themselves this year than ever before. According to fellow Footballguy Doug Drinen, NFL offenses struggled mightily in Week One, it was one of the worst weeks we've seen since 2000.

Teams simply weren't putting real points on the real scoreboard. In terms of average points scored, this was the 36th-lowest-scoring week (of 570 total weeks of football) since the merger. It was the lowest-scoring week since 2000. Since 1990, only 12 weeks have been lower-scoring.

Top quarterbacks disappointed, but should you panic?

This week wasn't pretty for top tier fantasy QBs. In fact, it was really bad. Just take a look at the output of our preseason top 12:

As you can see, it was a brutal start for this year's projected studs at the quarterback position. Nine of the 12 QBs finished far below expectations, with only McNabb, Vick and Eli Manning living up to (or exceeding) expectations. For many of these players, Week One will be an aberration in an otherwise stellar season. However, for a few of these quarterbacks, this could be a sign of disappointing things to come. Here's my take on the disappointing performances of the nine QBs who fell short of expectations and whether owners should be worried.

• Peyton Manning (QB11) - Manning didn't have a top tier week, but he played well enough to help his fantasy owners win their leagues. Manning completed 63% of his passes for a solid 6.9 yards per attempt; and no one can argue with his 40 attempts or yardage. The bottom line is there's absolutely no reason to worry about Manning. For him a down week meant finishing as QB11; that's something his owners should take solace in. Verdict: Don't Panic



• Tom Brady (QB13) - Brady had an abysmal first half against Buffalo completing three (yes, three) passes out of 11 attempts. He pulled himself together in the second half, completing 8-of-12 passes for 133 yards. So is Brady's subpar Week One a reason for concern? At some point, the Patriots won't be able to recover from the continual stream of free agent departures, and Brady publicly decried the loss of Deion Branch this week. But, after his solid 2nd half performance, it would be foolhardy to panic. Given the uncertain caliber of the Pats receiving corps, don't count on Brady matching last year's totals either; which could mean he'll fall short of his preseason projections. Verdict: Don't Panic, But Be Concerned



• Carson Palmer (QB29) - Palmer was a fantasy non-factor which certainly hurt owners who drafted him in the first few rounds. But much like Manning, there is little evidence to suggest Palmer's Week One was anything but the exception to an otherwise solid fantasy season. For Palmer, he was put in the rare position of having to be a game manager. Rudi Johnson ran the ball with aplomb and the Bengals' defense controlled the game. Palmer completed 68.4% of his passes for 6.7 yards per attempt. Those are rock solid numbers. You can be sure Palmer won't throw fewer than 20 passes in most weeks, nor will he fail to find the end zone. Verdict: Don't Panic



• Matt Hasselbeck (QB18) - Hasselbeck had a strange week. He completed an astounding 83.3% of his passes but threw for just over 200 yards with no touchdowns. Obviously Hasselbeck's completion percentage should tell you there's little to worry about. Furthermore, the Seahawks acquired Deion Branch this week, which gives them a receiving corps that runs four deep. As long as Walter Jones hamstring isn't a major problem, Hasselbeck is on track for the year we projected. Verdict: Don't Panic



• Marc Bulger (QB22) - A quarterback's primary goal is to lead his team to victory, and to that end Bulger was successful in his 2006 debut. However, the Rams arguably beat the Broncos in spite of Bulger. The signal caller threw for only 217 yards with no TDs. He only completed 53% of his passes for a modest 6.4 yards per attempt. His performance wasn't bad enough to ring the alarm bells, but owners should recognize that Bulger has the added risk of playing for Scott Linehan instead of Mike Martz. We know that Mike Martz can turn average QBs into stars, can Linehan do the same? Verdict: Don't Panic, But Be Concerned



• Daunte Culpepper (QB17) - Culpepper was playing well against a stout Pittsburgh Steelers defense until late in the game when he threw interceptions in consecutive pass attempts. Considering Culpepper probably shouldn't even be healthy enough to be on the field yet, it's hard to take him to task for his late game gaffes. That said Culpepper is on tenuous ground as he goes to a new team and must prove that last year's debacle wasn't a harbinger of things to come. Verdict: Don't Panic, But Be Concerned



• Jake Delhomme (QB26) - Delhomme had a terrible Week One, against a Falcons secondary that was considered susceptible. Of course, many owners will discount Delhomme's struggles because Steve Smith wasn't on the field. There's no question that Steve Smith makes an enormous difference, but it's also unclear when Smith will be back on the field, having sought a second opinion this week on his hamstrings. Delhomme has always been a bit overrated from a fantasy perspective, as his year end ranking has as much been a byproduct of staying healthy as putting up solid numbers on a per game basis. With Smith's health up in the air and LT Travelle Wharton lost for the season, Delhomme goes from a fringe every week starter to someone that needs a short leash; at least until Steve Smith comes back at full strength. Verdict: Be Concerned



• Jake Plummer (QB33) - Jake Plummer threw three interceptions, completed only 50% of his passes and completed a meager 13 passes for 138 yards. It's hard to believe he's the same player who threw just 7 interceptions all of last season. Plummer has a history of erratic play; but had shed that label in Denver until last year's AFC Championship game loss. His performance in Week One was even more concerning when you consider it came at the hands of the St. Louis Rams defense; widely considered to be one of the weaker units in the NFL by preseason pundits. With highly touted rookie Jay Cutler in the fold, and Broncos fans expecting a run at the Super Bowl, Plummer can ill afford another poor performance. Verdict: Don't Panic, But Be Concerned



• Drew Bledsoe (QB15) - Drew Bledsoe ranked 12th in our preseason rankings, and finished as the 15th ranked fantasy QB this week. There would seemingly be little reason to panic based on the rankings alone. However, when you peel back the onion, you can see why Bill Parcells is being peppered with questions about Tony Romo this week. Bledsoe completed just 48.5% of his passes and threw 3 interceptions (along with a TD). While some of the blame has to fall at the feet of the offensive line, that doesn't do fantasy owners any good unless the offensive line suddenly plays better. With Terry Glenn, Terrell Owens and Jason Witten, Bledsoe could (and should) easily rebound this week against a beaten up Washington secondary; but if he struggles again, you better hope you have a solid alternative on your roster. Verdict: Be Concerned

In conclusion, very few owners are willing to part ways with their struggling players after Week One. No one is, or should, give up on their starters after one game. However, by taking a hard look at the struggles of a given player early, you get a better sense as to whether you should a) jettison them in a week or two if their struggles continue and b) pursue a trade with someone for a player who starts slowly and gets their owners spooked.

Notes:
1) All fantasy point production assumes the Footballguys Scoring System:

• 1 point per 20 yards passing
  
• 1 point per 10 yards receiving or rushing
  
• 4 points per passing TD
  
• 6 points per rushing or receiving TD
  
• -1 per interception thrown

2) Special thanks to Doug Drinen (www.pro-football-reference.com) for providing the relevant statistical databases

3) Feel free to contact me (wood@footballguys.com) if you wish to discuss this column further or share other ideas for future issues