Fantasy Football Info For Serious Players
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Overvalued WRs
Mike Brown - Horn is still being drafted as if he is the #1 WR on the Saints. If he is, I wish someone would have told me. The actual WR1 on New Orleans, Donte Stallworth, is being drafted 36 spots after Joe Horn. Switch the ADP for Horn and Stallworth and that might make some sense, because a 5th round pick is far too high a price for a player whose best days are clearly behind him. Will Grant - Donte Stallworth is going to finish the season with more fantasy points than Horn will. Yet people still want to believe Horn is the man in New Orleans. Maybe he stays healthy, maybe he won’t. But I don’t see him as a #2 WR on your fantasy roster this year. I’d rather have guys like Branch or Mason over Horn. Jeff Pasquino - Joe Horn is on the downside of his career at 34 years old. He played in only 13 games last season, including one he left early with an injury. He had 102 targets but caught less than half. With RB Reggie Bush coming to town, Horn is likely to get fewer chances at receptions. The loss of QB Aaron Brooks, who liked to target Horn, will also hurt his production and keep him well out of the Top 20 receivers. Chris Smith - I have enjoyed watching Horn throughout the years but I believe his time as a top receiver has come and gone. He is on the downslope of his career now and while he will put up pretty good numbers, they won't be good enough to see him finish inside the top-20 at the receiver position in '06. Maurile Tremblay - Horn is no longer the Saints' best receiver. He struggled in the first half of the 2005 season with hamstring injuries; but even during the second half of the season when Horn was completely healthy, Donte Stallworth had more targets, more receptions, more yards, and more touchdowns than Horn – and more than twice as many fantasy points. Mark Wimer - Donte Stallworth took great strides last season during the Saint’s nomadic 2005 season, and Horn dropped off quite a bit (49/654/1 over 13 games). In fact, he’s finished with less than 1,000 yards receiving in 2 of his past 3 campaigns. At 34 years old, Horn is beginning the slide in production that will eventually lead to his retirement. He’ll be hard pressed to land among the top 20 at his position during 2006.
Mike Brown - I seriously don’t get the love for Walker this year. He’s coming off a torn ACL, which typically means that he’s not going to regain his full abilities until next year or at best late this season. He’s also changing teams, coaches, and systems. Finally, if one surgery wasn’t enough, how about a second procedure this past off-season? And you want to use your 4th round pick on a guy with this many question marks? I’ll take Donald Driver or T.J. Houshmandzadeh, players with nearly as much upside and in much more stable situations. David Dodds - He missed last season due to injury. He is changing teams. He lands on a team that has one of the best rushing attacks every year. He will play opposite a great WR in Rod Smith. Does that sound like the makings of the 16th best WR? The Broncos have added a great player here, but let’s not go overboard. Javon Walker is the #2 WR in Denver. Everything would have to go perfectly for him to come near these expectations. His floor could be as low as WR40 if not 100% healthy. Let someone else assume this risk. Andy Hicks - Denver desperately requires a replacement for Rod Smith as he approaches retirement age. They traded for Javon Walker and have their fingers crossed. Walker suffered a serious knee injury last year and had off season surgery to check it out. It remains to be seen if he can return to full fitness this year. Denver has hedged their bets by essentially giving him a one year contract. His current draft slot indicates people expect him to be something like the receiver playing for Green Bay in 2004. Walker moves to a club where he isn’t the clear cut No.1, has to rehabilitate his knee and play for a run orientated offense. Pass. Jason Wood - There are a lot of misconceptions about Javon Walker. One, he’s not a young receiver; he’ll be 28 this season. Two, he’s not a complete receiver. Three, he’s not the Broncos best receiver; that would be Rod Smith. A year or two from now, Walker may well be worthy of such a high draft pick, but in 2006, coming off a season-ending injury, he’s too risky to draft as one of your every week starters. David Yudkin - Walker is one of several players returning from a torn ACL this year, and normally a player's numbers take a hit in his first season back. He's also going to a new team (another scenario when a WR's numbers normally take a hit) and will be going to one of the most run heavy offenses in the league. Add in Rod Smith to the mix, and there's enough to make me think that Walker won't sniff the Top 20 WR this year.
Sigmund Bloom - I’m not sure how you can automatically project Burleson with good WR2 numbers in his first year in Seattle. He will likely only be bye week/injury filler unless Darrell Jackson gets hurt. There are just too many viable targets for Matt Hasselbeck in that passing offense. Burleson should be going at least 3-4 rounds after his ADP. David Dodds - Did I miss the memo that said he would surpass Bobby Engram on the depth chart and have a breakout season? Burleson was awful last season and finished as the 93rd best WR. I don’t expect he will reach his ADP of WR28 and I suspect he could miss by a wide margin. He will play for a Seattle team that loves to throw the ball, but I expect Engram, Jackson, and Stevens to get the majority of the balls this season. The new guy will slowly gain a larger role as the season moves forward. If you are intrigued about Burleson, trade for him after a few weeks of minimal production. Clayton Gray - Nate Burleson is getting drafted this high based primarily on a good 2004 season. He still has only four career 100-yard games. Last season, he crossed the 50-yard mark only once and scored a single TD. He might only be the third best WR in Seattle. Chris Smith - There is no reason for Burleson to be ranked inside the top thirty of his position this season and yet that is where he is going in fantasy leagues. First of all, the Seahawks will run the ball a lot once again in '06 with the talented Shaun Alexander. After that WR Darrell Jackson will be the first option, Bobby Engram will remain an important part of the offense and TE Jerramy Stevens is also no slouch. There simply aren't enough balls to go around to everybody and while I believe Burleson will play much better this season, he won't get enough looks to warrant this draft position.
Mike Brown - Probably through no fault of his own, I think his decline will have more to do with the re-emergence of Michael Clayton than anything. I see a reversal of statistics in Tampa this year, with Clayton becoming the WR1 and Galloway taking a back seat. He should still put up solid stats, but I think his days as a top-5 WR are long gone. That is somewhat reflected in his ADP by him already being dropped to the 6th round, but I see it dropping even lower. There just won’t be enough footballs to go around. Will Grant - Didn’t see it when the magazine article came out. Don’t see it now. Galloway had a career year in 2005, and does not have a history of playing a full season. The last time he put up those kind of numbers was 1998. To expect back-to-back performances like that is a huge risk for a sixth round pick. Jeff Pasquino - Galloway accounted for over 40% of the Buccaneers’ receiving yards in 2005, well beyond the normal range. Tampa ranks in the lower third of the league in passing and will favor distributing the ball more to TE Alex Smith and WR Michael Clayton. Galloway also turns 35 this year and while he put up 1,287 yards last year, it was his only season over 1,000 since 1998. That screams “fluke year” to me. Jason Wood - Joey Galloway finished as the 5th best fantasy receiver last year, which means a lot of my fellow writers probably voted him UNDERvalued this season (his current ADP = WR23). Yet, I see it quite differently. Galloway is turning 35 this year, and hadn’t had a 1,000-yard season for SIX years prior to last season. Even if you presume he can stay healthy again, he also must contend with a healthy Michael Clayton for targets. Galloway could be good, but I wouldn’t roll the dice on him this year ahead of guys like Rod Smith, Reggie Brown, Eddie Kennison and Terry Glenn.
Sigmund Bloom - The Rams paid Ike Bruce much more money than they paid Kevin Curtis to return in 2006. The new passing offense should deemphasize the 3rd WR. Curtis took a back seat to Bruce once he was healthy in 2005. Curtis ADP is over inflated; he’s merely a fantasy afterthought unless Bruce gets hurt again. Aaron Rudnicki - Curtis finished last season as WR27 but his production was largely dependent on Isaac Bruce being hurt and the offensive system of Mike Martz which used a lot of 3WR sets. He should see much fewer targets this year, however, because Bruce was re-signed to a large contract and will hold onto the starting spot opposite Torry Holt. Also, the Rams drafted 2 very good receiving TEs and the new coach Scott Linehan will likely run a more traditional offense with much fewer 3WR sets. David Yudkin - Curtis FILLED IN FOR an injured Isaac Bruce in the middle of last year. When Bruce returned, Curtis saw a minimal amount of targets and receptions and Bruce went back up to around his usual numbers. The Rams also signed Bruce to a 3-year, $15 million deal when they could have let him walk. St. Louis did not resign Bruce for $5 million a year to be a WR3. Despite the perception that Bruce is old and frail, he played in all but one game the six seasons before last year and there are many other receivers in his age group that no one is suggesting is over the hill. Getting a back up receiver at almost a fantasy WR3 price tag is the epitome of overvalued.
Marc Levin - The influx of new blood to the Redskins' offense will deplete Santana Moss' ability to repeat his 2005 performance as a top fantasy WR. New OC Al Saunders likes to spread the ball among his receivers and the Redskins' WR crew is deeper and more talented than last year after the team added Brandon Lloyd and Antwaan Randle El. With additional competition for targets from TE Chris Cooley, Moss' targets are likely to plummet from the 134 he received in 2005 to around 100. Moss is certainly a playmaker, but he is unlikely to come close to his 2005 reception or yardage numbers. He will be a feast or famine WR who will need double digit TDs to live up to his ADP. Jeff Pasquino - Santana Moss was a huge contributor in the Redskins’ passing game last season, catching 84 balls for over 40% of the team receiving yards. Washington lost all of their receivers to injuries last year aside from Moss and Cooley, and they have addressed that shortcoming this offseason by adding WRs Brandon Lloyd and Antwaan Randle El. Moss will see a production dropoff due to a more balanced passing game Mark Wimer - Santana Moss saw 44.3% of all the passes thrown to receivers in Washington last season. With Brandon Lloyd and Antwaan Randle-El in town, there is no way history repeats itself this year. Moss will not please the fantasy owners that draft him as their #1 WR – he’s going to fall back into average-to-above average fantasy points at his position this year as Lloyd and Randle-El share the load in Washington – Moss won’t repeat his career season during 2006.
Mike Brown - I’m not saying to not draft him. At some point, every player has value. But those people expecting a 1,500/15 season out of him need to realize that that isn’t what Bill Parcells is all about. He could just be blowing smoke, but he’s already gone on record that Owens will not catch 100 balls in this offense. And considering he’s going ahead of the following players -- Larry Fitzgerald, Torry Holt, Randy Moss, Marvin Harrison, Anquan Boldin -- I just don’t think the risk outweighs the reward. Chase Stuart - If Terrell Owens had the personality of Jerry Rice, he’d probably have an ADP no higher than where he stands right now, in the middle of the second round. He’s going to a new team, with a QB that has an excellent rapport with two very talented receivers already in Terry Glenn and Jason Witten. Yes Owens was great in limited time last year, but the Eagles ranked second in the league in pass attempts through seven weeks. Owens is a huge risk to miss games due to suspension, injury or something that doesn’t even exist yet. There are a lot of guys who are safer picks than Owens, whose ADP is only justified by looking at his upside and ignoring the glaring risk. Mark Wimer - Terrell Owens is going to be playing for Bill Parcells this season, who has flatly stated that Owens won’t catch 100 balls in the Cowboys offense. He’ll be a top 10 receiver, but I don’t see him making the top 5 at his position – he just won’t have enough opportunities in the Dallas offense.
David Dodds - It’s hard not to love the play of Steve Smith. I know I am a huge fan. But I am not expecting he will live up to his ADP of WR1. The Panthers had no other options at WR last season. This year they have Keyshawn Johnson. They also have Drew Carter who may turn some heads as early as training camp this year. Everything went right for Smith in 2006. He should again be productive, but this offense is too balanced for me to believe he will repeat as the best WR in the league. Chase Stuart - With an ADP at the end of the first round, Steve Smith’s overvalued. There’s no point in drafting Smith there, when he is marginally better than the eight WRs below him. He’s had exactly one season where he ranked in the top 12 wide receivers, and now he’s a top 12 pick? I’m skeptical that a player of his size can remain dominant in consecutive years, and that risk is enough to pass on him for a stud RB at the end of the first round. Expect Keyshawn Johnson to eat into Smith’s numbers as well. Jason Wood - I’m going to be filleted for this pick, but I honestly believe Steve Smith is overrated this year. First of all, I find it very hard to believe he’ll finish as the top overall WR this year. It’s not easy to duplicate the kind of season he had in 2005, and that’s under ideal circumstances. Meanwhile Smith has to contend with a much better WR2 taking targets away, as well as a renewed emphasis on the ground game with DeAngelo Williams in the fold behind DeShaun Foster. Smith, if healthy, IS absolutely a fantasy WR1. But no WR is worth the 12th overall pick this year, Smith included.
Sigmund Bloom - Many are forecasting Clayton to return to 2004 form, but that analysis discounts the effect of the Simms to Galloway connection. Chris Simms is clearly on the same page with Joey Galloway, and Simms will heavily target Galloway over Clayton. If Galloway lives up to his top 25 WR ADP and Tampa plays ball control, Clayton will have a tough time living cracking the top 35, forget about the top 25. Andy Hicks - How does Clayton go from a fantastic rookie season with 80 catches for almost 1,200 yards and seven TDs to 32 catches for 372 yards and zero TDs? Recovery from an offseason knee injury and the inability to train properly killed his and many fantasy owners’ season. Call me suspicious, but all the talk of being back to health is something I need to see to believe.
Marc Levin - Edwards is not scheduled to return from a 2005 injury until late October. The Browns are committed to developing inexperienced Charlie Frye as their QB. Fantasy owners who select Edwards at his current ADP can only count on him to be productive during the second half of the season. Edwards faces a brutal week 14-16 fantasy playoffs schedule as the Browns face Pittsburgh and Baltimore on the road, and then Tampa Bay at home. An owner would be better off with Keenan McCardell, Kevin Curtis, Eric Moulds, or Isaac Bruce. Look away from the WRs at that part of the draft, which is a sweet spot for sleeper TEs and QBs. David Yudkin - Edwards could very easily miss the first 6 games of the season if not more. With the typical recovery time for a torn ACL at 12-months, he will be trying to come back a few months earlier and should not be close to 100% once he hits the field. If he played on the Colts, Edwards might still have a shot at ranking as the #39 WR, but he stands little chance playing for the Browns (Bottom 5 in most passing categories the past three years).
Andy Hicks - With the departure of Eric Moulds, Lee Evans is expected to shoulder the load at Buffalo. At his current draft slot people are expecting this to be a walk in the park. With instability, or even worse J.P. Losman starting at QB, an uninspired Willis McGahee and a plethora of has beens and never weres as supporting receivers, who are opposing defenses going to lock onto? At only 5ft 10, it’s a tough task to ask Evans to perform at his ADP, let alone exceed it. Cecil Lammey - Evans has shown tremendous ability from the #2 spot in the Bills WR corps. He has had decent production, even with subpar play at QB. The QB job is up in the air, but none of the players in the running strike fear into opposing defenses. And with the departure of Eric Moulds, Evans will step into the #1 receiver role on a team that can’t throw the ball effectively. Will he be the next Alvin Harper? Only time will tell.
Cecil Lammey - Jerry Porter played opposite of Randy Moss last year and still didn’t put up the astronomical numbers that people expect from him. He seems to be one of those players that will never live up to his potential. And now, with the inconsistent Aaron Brooks at QB, there’s no reason to think that Porter will reach his potential this year either. Maurile Tremblay - For all his physical ability, Jerry Porter has never had a thousand-yard season in the NFL, and by this point must be considered somewhat of an underachiever. Moreover, Doug Gabriel and Ronald Curry are both very talented receivers, and I believe they are capable of upstaging Porter during the season. Porter is currently being drafted as the 33rd wide receiver, suggesting that he is one of the top number two receivers in the league. I don’t think his play on the field merits that kind of optimism.
Andy Hicks - I like Reggie Brown. He is promising, did well in his rookie season and has a strong work ethic. Unfortunately his ADP indicates he’s a starting quality fantasy WR. Did I miss a year? It is possible Brown could slip in some drafts and if that were the case I’d consider him strongly, but if he’s taken anywhere near his current ADP, let him go. The Eagles offense is very difficult for a young WR to learn and being thrust into the position of go to guy won’t come easy. Philadelphia has other options in the passing game and it’s very likely Brown won’t perform to his ADP.
David Yudkin - The Cardinals threw the ball an astounding 670 times last year, and the addition of Edgerrin James will likely cut that total by 100 passing attempts this upcoming season. Arizona did not shell out big money for Edge to watch passes zoom left and right. They brought him in to be a workhorse back like he was for the Colts. Fewer passes means lower production, and Fitzgerald could see 20 fewer receptions this year and could make Fitzgerald a borderline Top 10 WR this year.
Aaron Rudnicki - Holmes was the most NFL-ready of the rookie WRs this year, but he’ll be joining a veteran team that just won a Super Bowl and probably won’t rely on a rookie too much if they can help it. Cedrick Wilson is a perfectly capable WR2 so Holmes is expected to be the WR3 in a run-heavy offense. Antwaan Randle El was a much more proven player last year who was the clear cut #2 WR, but he still only finished as WR52. Holmes recent legal troubles are another cause for concern.
Chris Smith - What! Am I crazy? The great WR Torry Holt is overrated? Have I lost my marbles? No, the fact is that the second round in a fantasy draft is too high to select Holt in '06. The Rams passing attack has had inflated numbers over the past several years thanks to former coach Mike Martz who was as pass happy as one could possibly be in the NFL. The new offense will still feature a strong passing attack but will share the limelight with a much more prominent rushing attack. RB Steven Jackson is expected to carry the ball 20+ times per game. Holt will still be good but he is going about a round too early in my opinion based on what he's done in the past.
Jeff Pasquino - Darrell Jackson is a very good receiver – when healthy. This remains an issue after missing most of 2005 with injuries. Jackson has surpassed 1,000 yards in his last three full seasons with at least seven touchdowns, but he missed 10 games last year. The Seahawks added Nate Burleson in the offseason as insurance against another Jackson injury, and Jackson had his knee scoped again in March.
David Dodds - This guy is such a tease. I, like most football scouts, love the potential. But enough is enough. The Texans will struggle on offense like they always do. And despite boatloads of talent, Andre Johnson will likely under-perform the lofty expectations placed on him. He finished as the 47th best wide receiver last season. He had six games where he was held to 40 yards or less. Let someone else reach for him at WR18. I think his ceiling is likely a few rungs below that and his floor is even worse. He is a player I doubt will be on any of my fantasy rosters this season.
Aaron Rudnicki - Jones showed flashes of the talent that convinced the Jaguars to take him in the first round even though he had never played WR before, but he’s far from a finished product at this point. The retirement of Jimmy Smith is expected to open up a starting spot for him, but he’ll face tougher coverage than he’s used to and will still need to compete with Reggie Williams and Ernest Wilford for targets in an offense that likes to spread the ball around. Jones certainly has the athletic ability to become a #1 WR, but many have questioned his work ethic and dedication. I think there are much safer WR choices at this point in the draft who have similar upside.
Chris Smith - Lloyd is great at making the highlight reel catch. However he is also great at disappearing for long stretches of time during the game. Santana Moss will continue to see a lot of passes thrown his way as will TE Chris Cooley. In addition to this, the Redskins will spend a lot of the game featuring a strong rushing attack and will continue to pound the ball when they get a lead. Lloyd will have a big game or two this year but the flip side of that will be a number of games with little to no production. Very little upside for Lloyd this year.
Aaron Rudnicki - Based on ADP, Moss might be one of the most overvalued players in all of fantasy football this year. First, he’s extremely unlikely to take over a starting job from Plaxico Burress or Amani Toomer. Second, the Giants also have perhaps the best RB/TE receiving tandem in the league with Tiki Barber and Jeremy Shockey. Third, Moss is a 5’8” rookie WR who was just drafted in the second round and only managed 600 yards and 6 TDs during his last year in college. It’s pretty unlikely that he’ll finish as a top-60 fantasy WR this year, much less at WR48.
Maurile Tremblay - Koren Robinson has too much competition at the wide receiver position in Minnesota for me to view him as a fantasy WR3. Travis Taylor, Marcus Robinson, and Troy Williamson all figure to play significant roles in the WR rotation this year, all of them eating into Robinson’s opportunities. Robinson had only 22 receptions last year in 14 games, so I think it’s far from a sure thing that he’ll be the Vikings’ top WR this year.
Jason Wood - No way am I using a 3rd round pick on Reggie Wayne, particularly as my top fantasy receiver. He’s talented and in an offense that will target him a lot. But he’s also had exactly one top-10 fantasy season to his credit. Last year, he finished 21st and regressed significantly from his 2004 breakout. Armed with financial security, Wayne is more likely to plateau or regress than improve. Don’t overpay for him.
Sigmund Bloom - Wilford makes the spectacular catch, but he’s not consistent enough to be counted on as a starter. Some have penciled him into Jimmy Smith’s spot, but he’s likely to be only one of many big targets for Byron Leftwich combining to soak up Smith’s production. There are much surer WR2s for their teams to target before Wilford.
Maurile Tremblay - Granted, blowing a fifteenth-round pick is not the end of the world – but a wasted pick is a wasted pick, and Mike Williams should not be drafted at all. Roy Williams and Corey Bradford are expected to start at wide receiver for the Lions, with Mike Furrey the likely number three receiver. After that, Scotty Vines and perhaps Charles Rogers should round out the depth chart. Mike Williams does not figure to be in the rotation at all, if he even makes the team.
Mark Wimer - Roy Williams is a great talent, but the other high round picks surrounding him have been busts to date. With no legitimate #2 WR across from Williams, he’s going to be forced to fight through too many double- and triple- teams to land among the top 20 fantasy players at his position. He’s way overvalued at his current ADP of WR 14.
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