Fantasy Football Info For Serious Players
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| Introduction • QB: [under] [over] • RB: [under] [over] • WR: [under] [over] • TE: [under] [over] | |||||||||||||||||||
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Overvalued TEs
David Dodds - This guy is a freak and showed it at the NFL combine. We all get it. He can lift and jump and is blazing fast. He is going to be a star in this league someday. But he was drafted by the 49ers. Ouch. At an ADP of TE9, Davis is likely too hyped to reach that goal this season playing for such a dismal offense. The team also has Eric Johnson who could cut into the rookies snaps. With better options available 2-3 rounds later, you should pass on the high asking price of this rookie phenom. Marc Levin - A rookie as the #9 TE? Rookie TEs usually take some time to develop, especially when paired with an inexperienced QB like Alex Smith. He also faces competition for targets to the TE from a healthy Eric Johnson - at least until Johnson's next injury. Moreover, the 49ers' ranked dead last in 2005 in pass yards and passing TDs. Unless there is a massive turnaround in the 49ers' passing offense, it is a huge risk to draft Davis as a starting TE when proven and reliable TEs are available much later. Aaron Rudnicki - Davis is certainly one of the most impressive TE prospects to enter the league in recent years, although Jeremy Shockey and Kellen Winslow were probably comparable. Shockey obviously lived up to the hype as he finished his rookie season as the #3 TE in the league, but there weren’t nearly as many quality TEs in the league then as there are now. In addition to having a lot of competition at the position, Davis will be joining the league’s worst offense with perhaps the worst QB throwing him the ball. While it is certainly possible that Davis could live up to this draft spot, he carries much more risk than many of the other TEs available at this point. Mark Wimer - Vernon Davis is a rookie. Over the time frame 1998-2005, 22 tight ends were selected in the 1st or 2nd rounds of the NFL draft, and only 2 finished among the top ten in fantasy points at their position in their first season. With a healthy and experienced Eric Johnson also in the mix at his position, and the normal rookie growing pains for Davis, he’ll be hard pressed to land in the top 20 at his position, let alone the top 10. Jason Wood - I think Vernon Davis COULD be the best fantasy tight end in the league someday; but not this year. Take a look at rookie years for Tony Gonzalez, Todd Heap, Antonio Gates, Jason Witten, and Alge Crumper. None of them were worth owning, much less as your starter. Why should Vernon Davis be any different? David Yudkin - Last year, the No. 9 tight end produced 86 fantasy points. Since 1990, only Jeremy Shockey, Cam Cleeland, and Ken Dilger scored that many points as a rookie. None of those players played on an offense quite so anemic as the 49ers' (San Francisco ranked Bottom 3 in almost every passing category last year). And none of them had had a teammate at TE that had had an 80+ reception season.
David Dodds - After Santana Moss, the Redskins had limited options in the passing game last year. So they went to Chris Cooley often. In the offseason, the Redskins addressed this lack of a #2 WR and signed both Brandon Lloyd and Antwaan Randle El to big contracts. No one was hurt more by this move than Chris Cooley. No way does he come near his 4th place finish last season. In fact at his ADP (TE7), he seems like a big reach to me. I would pass on Cooley to grab Watson, Troupe or Winslow many rounds later. They offer more upside with a lot later pick. Clayton Gray - Cooley had an outstanding 2005 campaign, but it was primarily due to a lack of other options at receiver. After Santana Moss and Cooley, no Redskin caught more than 217 yards receiving. With Brandon Lloyd and Antwaan Randle-El in town, there will be fewer opportunities for Cooley. Will Grant - I don’t have an issue with Cooley being the 7th best TE this year so much as I have with him being taken in the 6th round. By that point, you’re talking less than 1 point per game between TE8 and TE12. There are still plenty of WR and RB in the 6th round who have bigger upside than Cooley does and could still give you more than a point per game. Jeff Pasquino - Cooley benefited from the Redskins’ lack of many options in the passing game in 2005. QB Mark Brunell threw mostly to WR Santana Moss and to Cooley. After adding both Brandon Lloyd and Antwaan Randle El, Washington will have more chances to distribute the ball to multiple receivers. Cooley’s totals will likely suffer as a result. Chase Stuart - Chris Cooley was a star last year, but the Redskins second and third WRs totaled just 411 yards last year. If Cooley, Brandon Lloyd and Antwaan Randle El combine for just 1185 yards in 2006, Cooley’s not going to have any fantasy value. Washington addressed a serious need by adding two big play receivers in Randle El and Lloyd. Cooley was the number two guy by default last year, but an ADP in the 7th round for a guy whose teams just added two WRs who combined for 1,291 receiving yards last year seems unwarranted.
Mike Brown - This appears to be the year to either you draft one of the three stud tight ends (Gates, Shockey, Gonzalez) or you wait. The players in the middle (Heap, Crumpler, Witten, Cooley, McMichael) are all interchangeable and one is probably not significantly better than the rest. Couple that with news about Crumpler’s mystery off-season surgery and whispers that the Falcons may want to use the TE as more of a blocker this year, and we might actually have seen Crumpler peak in ’06. I don’t want to pay for a player who just peaked; I want a guy who is about to (Witten, McMichael, both of whom can be had much later). Jason Wood - Alge Crumper is a fantastic tight end and the Falcons would be lost without him. But here’s the thing. He had shoulder surgery just a few months ago and you can’t possibly be sure of his status for training camp. Now that the league has so many productive tight ends, it’s difficult to endorse drafting Crumpler in the sixth round when Jason Witten, Chris Cooley and Randy McMichael may still be on the board.
Jeff Pasquino - Tony Gonzalez used to be an elite tight end, but no more. The aging offense in Kansas City, particularly on the offensive line, has forced Gonzalez to block more and run routes less. Las season he slipped from the Top 2 TEs down to #7 overall. With many other NFL tight ends on the rise, selecting Gonzalez in the fifth round (based on his ADP of 53) seems a few rounds too early. Chris Smith - A new offense with a conservative head coach, an offensive line that is beginning to show cracks due to age, an aggressive running attack and lots of depth at the tight end position this season are all reasons to avoid selecting Gonzalez too early in '06. Once way ahead of the curve, the pack has definitely come back to him and players like Ben Watson, Todd Heap, Alge Crumpler, Chris Cooley and Dallas Clark all have better value this season.
Sigmund Bloom - Peyton Manning spreads the ball around too much to make a stud out of Clark. He is a good receiver, but the Colts offense always splits production at around 50/50 between the top 2 TEs. He’s only worth carrying as a backup, and backup TEs are not the pick he is going at.
Mike Brown - It’s not that I don’t see Heap performing well this season; it’s just that I don’t see him performing that much better, if at all, than the tight ends taken after him. We always advise strongly against taking a particular player simply because he’s the next-highest ranked guy at the position. If he’s the top guy on a large tier, and you can get a similar talent later, you wait. In other words, why take Heap at 51 when you can take Randy McMichael at 86 or even a potential breakout sleeper like Zach Hilton at 194?
Marc Levin - Even though Miller was the #11 fantasy TE in 2005, his numbers were extraordinarily TD driven and were generated mostly in weeks 5 through 8, when he averaged 12.1 fantasy points per game. For the rest of the year, he failed to crest 7 fantasy points in any game, he averaged only 2.88 points per game, he had 2 zero point games, and he had 5 games with 3 or fewer targets. He had only 52 targets all year. That kind of inconsistency is tough to stomach from a starting TE, especially when Ben Watson and Ben Troupe are available much later and are more likely to develop into consistent yardage producers.
Mark Wimer - Smith had a great season with 61/682/3, but the circumstances were unusual. Brian Westbrook, a key to the passing game, out for the final 4 games; #1 WR Terrell Owen, out for 9 games (suspended); and #2 WR Todd Pinkston went down in August (Achilles injury). Smith saw 62 more targets during 2005 than he had in 2004 (107 vs. 45) – he was one of the only targets left.
Sigmund Bloom - We saw Stevens’ peak production last year, and it was not overwhelming. He was mostly a non factor in weeks when he didn’t catch a TD. Stevens only got enough targets to allow for modest production last year, and the WR corps should improve. Stevens will be outperformed by at least 3 or 4 TEs that go after him.
Chris Smith - I understand that folks still are drooling over his potential but to draft him ahead of proven, talented guys such as Ben Watson, Ben Troupe, Dallas Clark and Jerramy Stevens at this point in his career is silly. He has a very green quarterback throwing him the ball in Charlie Frye and he is unlikely to step right in and be the impact player some are anticipating. Just stepping on the field will be a victory for him in '06.
Chase Stuart - With an injured Julius Jones and Keyshawn Johnson on the team, Witten ranked as the sixth best TE. With a healthy Julius Jones and Terrell Owens, it seems unlikely that Witten can remain as productive. The loss of TE Mark Campbell might require Witten to stay in and block more, which would hurt Witten’s fantasy value. Witten was a stud in 2004 because Terry Glenn was injured, but the Cowboys have too many other playmakers to expect Witten to have a big year. There are several TEs that are much nicer values than Jason Witten in the 7th round.
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