Fantasy Football Info For Serious Players
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| Introduction • QB: [under] [over] • RB: [under] [over] • WR: [under] [over] • TE: [under] [over] | |||||||||||||||||||
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Undervalued TEs
Sigmund Bloom - Watson could easily step up to become the #2 receiving option in New England with the departure of David Givens. He is ultra talented, and there is even talk of splitting him out at WR this year. He is well worth the investment in the 9th or 10th round. Mike Brown - I am shocked to see that Watson is being drafted after Jerramy Stevens and Dallas Clark. There is no question of Watson’s immense talent; the problem has simply been a lack of opportunity. This year, the Patriots could struggle finding players to throw to. Deion Branch, Kevin Faulk, and Troy Brown are the only returning mainstays who’ll play a significant role in the passing game, and two of those guys aren’t even starters. Watson should finally see a chance to beef up his stats, and should finish as a top-10 TE with ease (with top-5 not out of the question). David Dodds - With the departure of David Givens to the Titans, look for 2nd year Ben Watson to have an increased role in the passing game. This first-round draft selection emerged in the playoffs last year and could easily be the #1 redzone target for the team. He finished as the 15th best TE last year as he learned the offense. No way do 14 TEs finish the year above him this season. Draft him with confidence this late in your draft. Marc Levin - Once the first 8 TEs are off the board, the next batch of TEs contain players who have virtually no NFL experience (Vernon Davis and Kellen Winslow) and players who suffer low target numbers (Dallas Clark, Jerramy Stevens, and Heath Miller). The buzz around Watson, however, should give owners confidence that his weekly production will be competitive with those players. He has extraordinary athletic talent and, with the dearth of receivers in New England, his target numbers should swell. Consider his 15.2 yards per catch average in 2005, his red zone efficiency (he caught 6 of 10 targets for 3 TDs), the fact that he had only one game last year without a catch, and the recent reports that the Patriots are considering giving him time at WR. It is easy to foresee a bust out season similar to Antonio Gates' 2004 season. His ADP places him right in the sweet spot for finding TE value - hopefully, Watson will remain a secret long enough for you to land him at this incredible value. Aaron Rudnicki - Watson is a physical freak for with the size to play TE but the speed and athletic ability to line up at WR. The Patriots lost their #2 WR when David Givens signed with the Titans, and Watson should be the main beneficiary. Really emerged as a reliable and explosive player in the second half of 2005 and should finish as a top-10 TE this year. Chris Smith - Ben Watson off the board as the 15th tight end taken in fantasy leagues. Are you kidding me? Watson has a great chance to jump into the top-six at the position this year and he may slot in as the 2nd best receiver on the Patriots next to Deion Branch while rookie Chad Jackson learns the professional game. Watson has all the tools to not only be a good tight end, but a great one and he showed flashes with 4 touchdowns last year. He may double that in '06. Maurile Tremblay - Watson has phenomenal speed and athleticism for a player his size. He plays in a strong offense led by one of the best quarterbacks in the league. And with the departure of former starting WR David Givens, the Patriots appear to have less depth at the WR position than they did last year – probably meaning more opportunities for the tight end. In short, Watson is an excellent player in an excellent situation, and should improve on last year’s finish as the #15 tight end. He is very likely to outperform his current average draft position. Jason Wood - Ben Watson has been patiently waiting in the wings, and this season is his chance to shine. The Patriots love to spread the ball around, but Tom Brady is going to find his best players most often. Watson has the speed of a receiver and the strength of Antonio Gates. With Deion Branch’s contract status up in the air and David Givens departed, Watson can and will get plenty of targets this year.
David Dodds - Despite splitting time with Erron Kinney, Ben Troupe finished as the 12th best TE (in 15 games) last season. He had career highs on targets, catches, yards and TDs in his second season. I believe he will continue to progress so am shocked to see his ADP at TE16. He would need to regress by about 15% to finish at TE16 and that seems unlikely. Andy Hicks - A common issue that arises when discussing Troupe is the committee approach seemingly favored by Tennessee. Under Jeff Fisher’s tenure the Tight End position has flourished. Frank Wycheck was a top 6 tight end for 6 consecutive seasons, before the mantle was to be passed to Erron Kinney. Kinney has failed to live up to expectations and now Troupe will be given the opportunity to become the No.1. Kinney is 29, injury prone and towards the end of his career. Troupe is 23, with 2 years under his belt and ready to reach his prime. Marc Levin - Troupe has tremendous value for owners who like to wait on their TE, or for owners who want to back up an elite TE with a solid option. Once the first 8 TEs are off the board, it is advisable to wait for a player like Troupe rather than taking an inexperienced TE like Kellen Winslow Jr. or Vernon Davis, or a TE who faces a lot of competition for targets like Dallas Clark or Jerramy Stevens. Troupe will emerge as the primary receiving TE in 2006 over Erron Kinney, especially in the red zone - Troupe had 4 red zone TDs against Kinney's 1, and Troupe had a better red zone catch percentage. He received 80 targets in 2005 and he gains decent yardage numbers. Since he could easily match or surpass his 2005 finish as the TE12, Troupe holds great value as the TE16. Chase Stuart - Ben Troupe’s turns 24 years old just one week before the 2006 season. He’s been hyped as the next stud TE for a few seasons now, so it’s easy to forget how young he is. Troupe caught 55 passes last year and ranked as the 12th best TE. He’s got all the physical tools you look for in a TE (6-4, 260 lbs, 4.65 40 yard dash) and has very soft hands. He’s a steal in 13th round, and has the upside to finish in the top five TEs. David Yudkin - Troupe has never been fully healthy and is still learning the pro game. He ranked as the No. 12 TE in 2005 and plays in a system that maximizes TE production. Tennessee's tight ends yielded 149 receptions, 1,359 receiving yards and eight TDs last year. Troupe should produce similar or better numbers, giving him more than enough production to outrank his draft position.
David Baker - Nobody has ever disputed that Winslow can play the game. His attitude, immaturity and injuries have seemed to get in the way, though. Well, Winslow is back, or at least close to it. The injuries he suffered from the motorcycle accident are healing, and although he's not 100%, he's getting there and many believe he'll be close to 100% before opening day. If Winslow is anywhere near 100%, he could be a huge contributor to a Browns' offense that lacks other receiving threats, especially with Braylon Edwards on the mend. If healthy, there's no reason why Winslow won't be a top five tight end in fantasy leagues. Mike Brown - The 10th round is not where we expected to see Winslow being taken on average upon entering the league, but let that be your gain. His ACL surgery was long ago enough that he should be 100% by the time the season rolls around. What’s more, there aren’t many other playmakers in Cleveland (and very few TEs around the league to match Winslow’s pre-injury talent level). Almost by accident, he’ll be a top-10 TE with an upside significantly higher. Will Grant - I’ve warmed up on this one bit and I’m now ready to say that at 115 overall, Winslow is worth a shot. The early reports out of Cleveland say that he’s 100% recovered and playing well. If Winslow has his head screwed on straight, he’ll easily finish in the top 10 for a TE. With a young, inexperienced QB at the helm (Charlie Frye only appeared in seven games last season), Winslow makes a great safety valve to dump off to. With the WR corps a bunch of question marks after Joe Jurevicius, Winslow could easily end up the Browns’ #2 pass catcher this season. Mark Wimer - Kellen Winslow has impressed during organized team activities/mini-camps, and seems poised to put his injury-riddled past in the rear-view mirror. Given a relative lack of other receiving threats (besides Winslow and Joe Jurevicius) on the team, a lot of talk has been heard about splitting Winslow out to play at WR during games, as well fulfilling his role at TE. If true, Winslow will see a lot of balls every game – he should easily outstrip his ADP of TE #12. David Yudkin - The Browns lost their most productive receiver in Antonio Bryant, signed a perennial run of the mill WR in Joe Jurevicius, and have their franchise WR trying to come back from a serious injury. That leaves Winslow with an excellent chance to be the primary receiving threat this season. There's talk of Braylon Edwards missing up to the first half of the season, and he'd most likely be hampered once he returns. People are turned off by Winslow's own injury history and lack of on-field experience, but he was thought by many as a can't miss tight end with the chance to post big numbers.
Bob Magaw - Even with TO in the starting lineup, Smith's production took a quantum leap in his third year, eclipsing his previous career highs in receptions and yards (34 - 377) by nearly double (61 - 682). He not surprisingly had much better numbers in the first part of the season (50 of his 61 total receptions in the first 10 games and all 3 TDs in the first seven), roughly aligned with the time QB Donovan McNabb was healthy enough to play. The return to full strength of the PHI team leader and pivot man bodes well for Smith. If he betters his career numbers from last season, has a chance to sneak into the top 5 among TEs, yet is still in stealth mode and flying under the radar somewhat due to McNabb's injury-plagued 2005 depressed stats. Jeff Pasquino - With no clear WR2 in Philly, L.J. Smith should get a lot of looks from a healthy Donovan McNabb. The Eagles like the TE in their offense, and Smith had 49 catches for 501 yards and 3 scores in the first 10 games before the Eagles took a nosedive last season. Aaron Rudnicki - LJ Smith has become a bigger part of the Eagles offense each season and last year finished as the #9 ranked fantasy TE despite playing with backup QBs for much of the year. With Owens now gone and an unproven Reggie Brown stepping into the WR1 role, McNabb will likely rely on Smith more than ever. There might be more viable fantasy options at TE this year than ever before, but Smith is a great value as the 11th TE off the board.
Bob Magaw - Since new MIN HC and ex-PHI OC Brad Childress didn't call plays for the Eagles, there is some uncertainty associated with how Wiggins will be used in the Vikings new scheme, but he clearly is the best receiving TE on the team. Though not a prolific TD scorer, his 140 combined receptions since 2004 are fourth best among TEs behind only Tony Gonzalez, Antonio Gates and Jason Witten. Wiggins isn't a burner but has good hands, nifty feet, surprising athleticism and uncanny instincts for how to find the soft spots in zone defenses. With Childress expected to run more of a short to intermediate pass attack that meshes with new/old starting QB Brad Johnson's skills, that could also play to the strength of Wiggins (he reportedly showed up at OTAs noticeably leaner and quicker and looks ready to rumble). Jason Wood - Jermaine Wiggins shouldn’t be considered a top tier fantasy option, but he deserves to be one of the first backup TEs drafted in 10- and 12-team leagues. He’s got soft hands and plays for a team with nary a proven option at wide receiver. Furthermore, new HC Brad Childress isn’t a fan of using spread formations, meaning Wiggins will see a ton of snaps.
Cecil Lammey - Davis will start the season as the 49ers #1 target, and he should see solid numbers because of it. The WR corps in San Francisco isn’t very threatening to a defense, so Davis will take advantage of his unique opportunity. It’s not out of the realm of possibility that Davis could end the season as the leader in receptions and receiving yards for the 49ers. Vernon is also a great red zone target if the 49ers get close enough. Even though he’s a TE, and a rookie, he should outperform any WR on his team.
Mark Wimer - While neck and back injuries are hard to predict, all indications out of Green Bay are that Franks is healthy this year and that he is firmly entrenched at #1 on the depth chart entering training camp. During the four campaigns prior to 2005, Franks scored 27 TDs, and averaged 341.5 receiving yards per season. If he can regain his pre-2005 form, Franks should easily outperform his current ADP as TE #23.
Sigmund Bloom - Gates is the clear cut #1 TE with no peers. He is worth a top 20 pick in PPR leagues, and is arguably on a par with Peyton Manning in value. His dominance is underrated in fantasy circles.
Chase Stuart - From 1999-2004, Tony Gonzalez’s VBD value ranked in the top 30 each year, and in the top 15 six times. Last year, from week seven until the end of the season, Gonzalez led all TEs in receiving yards. Yet Gonzalez’s ADP is in the 5th round? The 7-time Pro Bowler started off horribly last year after LT Willie Roaf was injured and Gonzalez was utilized almost exclusively as a blocker. Despite being a stud TE once Roaf was back, and despite having a history of being worth a second or third round pick, Gonzalez can be had in the fifth right now.
Jeff Pasquino - With the loss of Antwaan Randle El to Washington, Pittsburgh loses the second option in their passing game. Someone will rise to fill that void, and Heath Miller seems like the best candidate. Miller scored six touchdowns and caught 75% of his 52 targets last year, so if he gets 20-30 more balls thrown in his direction a Top 5 TE finish is well within reach.
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