Fantasy Football Info For Serious Players
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| Introduction • QB: [under] [over] • RB: [under] [over] • WR: [under] [over] • TE: [under] [over] | |||||||||||||||||||
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Overvalued RBs
David Dodds - He has lost a step. Actually, make that multiple steps. Don’t believe the hype that Jamal Lewis is back. His ypc is going to be awful and he will eventually be in a full blown RBBC with Mike Anderson on this team. He had just 906 yards and 3 TDs despite playing in 15 games. His yards per carry was 3.4, well below the league average. I believe Jamal will again be given the chance to show he should be the starting RB. I just don’t expect him to convince anyone he should keep the job all season long. Way too much downside for me based on where Lewis is being drafted. Clayton Gray - When you take a running back near the top of round three, you should expect him to be a solid starter all season long. With Mike Anderson on the Baltimore roster, Lewis is a reach at this ADP. Aaron Rudnicki - Lewis finished each of the last two seasons as the 25th ranked fantasy RB, although he was actually much worse in 2005 when he played in 3 fewer games and averaged nearly 1 fewer yard per carry. The Ravens no longer have a dominant offensive line or a dominant defense and they have dramatically upgraded their passing game with the additions of Derrick Mason, Mark Clayton, and now Steve McNair. All of these factors combined with the fact that Lewis just isn’t as good as he used to be suggest that Lewis will have a difficult time living up to his current ADP. The Ravens did lose Chester Taylor to free agency but signed a pretty good replacement in Mike Anderson who is coming off a top-10 season so that is probably a wash for Lewis. Chase Stuart - Jamal Lewis was awful last season, averaging just 3.4 YPC and rushing for only three TDs, despite being the starter for fifteen games. He hasn’t looked very good the past two seasons, has lost his breakaway speed and was never a good receiver to begin with. Mike Anderson meanwhile, was the starting RB on the second best team in the AFC last year and looked impressive while running for 108 more yards on 30 fewer carries, and scoring nine more TDs. Lewis going as the 18th RB this year is hard to justify even if Mike Anderson didn’t go to Baltimore; with Anderson there it’s insane. David Yudkin - As best as I can tell, the Ravens are the first team to sign a 1,000-yard rusher from another franchise in the previous season and NOT start him in the following season. Many people remember Lewis as a 2,000-yard rusher, but since then he's been a disappointment both on and off the field. His ypc has fallen almost a full yard both seasons, he's only scored 11 times in his last 546 touches, and he doesn't get a ton of receiving yards. With Anderson looking to steal some carries and talk of a more vertical offensive attack, Lewis will struggle to rank in the Top 20 and could fall even further.
David Dodds - It pains me to write this because I fully expect Bush to be a monster in this league. And it could be this season. But as talks between the two sides breakdown, this could be a nasty holdout in the making. I think it represents enough risk that Bush is now way over-valued. The talent is there, but he will need to sign early to realize that potential this season. And I don’t see that happening. Clayton Gray - I like watching Bush play, but spending a third round pick on an NFL team's backup RB seems to be a bit of a reach. At this stage of the draft, Bush must be the primary Saints RB by a large margin. The presence of Deuce McAllister will preclude that from happening. Marc Levin - Unless Deuce McAllister is unable to play in 2006, Bush's current ADP is a bit too high since he is being drafted as a starting RB2 from day one. Will he help your team as much as Warrick Dunn, Tatum Bell, Corey Dillon, DeShaun Foster, and Thomas Jones? The word out of New Orleans is that Bush will be used all over the field, which sounds similar to how the Miami Dolphins handled Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams last year. Though Brown finished as the RB23, his numbers were sporadic and they fell off tremendously soon after Williams returned. I envision a similar situation for Bush - as long as McAllister is available, it will be difficult for Bush to live up to his ADP. Jeff Pasquino - Reggie Bush is a major talent, but we have yet to see how that translates to the NFL. New Orleans will get him the ball, but he is not the only option in the Saints’ offense. QB Drew Brees has the choice of WR Joe Horn, WR Donte Stallworth, TE Zach Hilton, and RB Deuce McAllister in addition to Bush. While the Saints will find ways to use his talents, he is not worthy of being the 20th running back in your draft.
Will Grant - The Carolina running back situation is a pretty scary mess this season. Foster might be the #1 back now, but I can't see him holding onto that spot with DeAngelo Williams in town now. Eric Shelton will be in the mix somewhere as well, and let's not forget that Foster isn't a guy that you can count on to make it a full 16 games. He's a big risk. To spend a high 5th round pick on a risky back that might not make it the full season is a bit much. Cecil Lammey - Foster’s injury history is very well documented. Dating back to his days at UCLA, Foster has never been able to stay healthy. The Panthers are expected to contend for a Super Bowl again this year, and Foster has the talented rookie DeAngelo Williams right behind him on the depth chart. If Foster is injured (again) or ineffective, Williams may take that job and never look back. Aaron Rudnicki - Foster has earned a reputation for being injury prone, missing 31 games over his 4-year career and suffering a broken leg in the playoffs last year. He had trouble beating out an aging Stephen Davis for the starting job, and could wind up losing his starting job to 1st round pick DeAngelo Williams this year. Risky pick without the upside to warrant being ranked this high. Jason Wood - Stop the insanity! How many years are people going to keep wasting a pick on this guy? Last year he played in 15 games and still failed to rush for 1,000 yards. He rushed for a grand total of TWO touchdowns. In games with 20+ rushes, he averaged an uninspiring 3.9 yards per rush and found the end zone once. Then, in the playoffs he proceeded to suffer yet another major injury. As if that weren’t enough, the Panthers drafted a true franchise back in DeAngelo Williams. Let sleeping DeShaun Foster’s lie.
Marc Levin - Injuries prevented Jones from having the bust out 2005 season that was expected after his incredible 2004 run, and the door was opened for Marion Barber III to find his way into Bill Parcells' good graces (and for Jones to find his way into the doghouse). Parcells is known for having little tolerance for oft-injured players and he favors the lunch pail guys - Jones has often been injured and Barber excels at the non-glamorous jobs of blocking and fighting for yardage between the tackles. Even if Jones is not hurt by Barber's playing time, he has to compete with Terrell Owens, Terry Glenn, and Jason Witten for touches, especially in the red zone. Jones is overvalued when compared to the other players available at his ADP, including top-flight WR1s Randy Moss, Marvin Harrison, Anquan Boldin and RB2s Jamal Lewis and Willie Parker. Jeff Pasquino - Julius Jones struggles to keep his job as the starting tailback in Dallas. With questions about his durability and work ethic, the door remains open for Marion Barber III to take away carries and production. Until Jones can show Head Coach Bill Parcells that he can consistently handle the workload on all three downs for multiple games, his job is in jeopardy. Chris Smith - There is no denying that Julius Jones has considerable talent. However he is very similar to his brother Thomas Jones in that he simply cannot stay healthy on a consistent basis and he has a very talented player in his own right, Marion Barber III breathing down his neck. Head Coach Bill Parcels appears to really like Barber and Jones has his work cut out just to be named the starter this season. He will split touches with Barber and he is going too high in fantasy drafts this year. Mark Wimer - Julius Jones is not an entrenched “featured” back in Dallas. Marion Barber III had as much productivity running the ball as Jones did last year (3.9 yards per carry) and slightly better yards per catch (6.4 for Barber, 6.2 for Jones). Both Jones and Barber scored 5 TDs on the ground. With Barber around to snatch away carries and TDs from Jones, Jone is unlikely to land in the top 20 at his position by year’s end.
Andy Hicks - Ahman Green has struggled with fitness the last 2 seasons, but his torn quadriceps has been particularly hard to overcome. He will not be ready to participate until the middle of training camp at the earliest, leaving his preparation heading into 2006 inadequate. Add the fact that there is a new coaching staff, the offensive line still needs improvement, Brett Favre is on his last legs and the receivers are young and inexperienced and I’m afraid Ahman Green is a player I’m giving a wide berth. Chris Smith - Green was an elite fantasy performer not too long ago but injuries have taken a toll on him and he doesn't appear to be the same player he once was. Add to that an older, less effective Brett Favre, one of the worst offensive lines in all of football and a new offensive scheme and it is unlikely that Green will put up enough numbers to justify him as the 31st fantasy running back taken. David Yudkin - Green's season ended last year after he suffered a torn quadriceps tendon It's not a very common injury, but from what I've researched not many athletes have been able to return and get back to 100%. That does not bode well for Green, and it's starting to look like he will miss a significant chunk of training camp and his contract would allow him to be cut with very little cap hit. Green won't be worth his draft slot if his workload is reduced, gets hurt again, or if hampered and a lot less productive. All those are realistic concerns that have a decent chance of presenting themselves this year.
Mike Brown - Taylor finally earned a starting gig this off-season and responded by getting out of shape and coming to minicamp overweight. Second, Chester Taylor is not Jim Taylor, and there are other RBs on the roster capable of producing if Taylor is out of shape or falters. There will be an owner in every league who sees Taylor as LaMont Jordan II. Don’t be that guy. His job isn’t as secure as Jordan’s, he doesn’t have the talent of Jordan, and the Vikings offense is not what it used to be. There are far safer choices with just as much upside in the picks just after Taylor (DeShaun Foster, Joseph Addai). Marc Levin - The recent reports about Taylor showing up at mini-camp out of shape should raise red flags regarding his fantasy worth, especially after the team told him he is not guaranteed the starting job. Even if he wins the starting role, RB Mewelde Moore is a speedier player and an excellent receiver who will probably steal quite a few touches from Taylor. The Vikings' running game struggled in 2005 and the team had less than 400 rush attempts. At Taylor's ADP, Warrick Dunn is a much safer RB2 selection and there are still quality WRs available. Don’t get sucked into a desperation move for a RB2 like Taylor unless he is really impressive in preseason and locks down a role as the workhorse back. Jason Wood - Repeat after me, Chester Taylor is NOT Priest Holmes. Yes, Taylor, like Holmes, was a backup in Baltimore that changed teams for a chance to start. But to presume Taylor will come close to repeating what Holmes did is absurd. He’s unproven, having never logged more than 160 carries; he’s scored four rushing touchdowns in FOUR seasons, and has neither breakaway speed nor the build to take a pounding. Sure, he may be successful in Minnesota, but I’m not making that bet at his current ADP.
Sigmund Bloom - Tatum Bell’s role seems set in Denver, as second fiddle to a more rugged RB. His body of work and durability record does not merit the premium pick he is going at. Spend that top 50 pick on a stud WR or TE instead. Mike Brown - How hamstrung would you be if Bell simply does what he did last year? The Denver RB situation is the same as a year ago, and unless we see something in training camp and preseason that dramatically changes his status, Bell will likely get a similar workload as in 2005. Despite his high ranking, his production was very top-heavy (most of his productivity came in just four games) and his value was very limited in head-to-head formats.
David Dodds - Did I miss the news conference where Lovie Smith named Benson the starter this year? Oh that’s right….it has not happened. And for good reason. He is not better at this point in his career than Thomas Jones. Jones is far and above the better blocker and better receiver too. So what’s that leave for Benson? Table scraps from my perspective. He will have an increased role over last year, but I don’t think he is anointed as the fulltime starter until after Jones moves on (and that will be next year). Jason Wood - I was a fan of the Bears selection of Cedric Benson and believe he’ll some day be an excellent pro. But he’s being drafted, on average, just two RB slots lower than his teammate Thomas Jones, and ahead of the likes of Joe Addai, DeAngelo Williams, Chris Brown and LenDale White. Until Benson improves his pass blocking and shows more patience (both areas he struggled with in mini camp), Thomas Jones is going to shoulder the bulk of the offensive workload.
Cecil Lammey - Chris Brown has an amazing skill set, and would be a productive NFL back if not for two things. First, his durability is a concern as he has never played a full season in the pros. Second, he has a rookie back that will take most all the carries away from him. Jeff Fisher has stated that he sees Brown as a situational running back. Jeff Pasquino - Chris Brown has missed 11 games over the past three seasons, and now has both RB Travis Henry and rookie RB LenDale White pushing him for the starting job. He is one of the most likely starting tailbacks to lose that role at some point this year, which adds to his tenuous position. Brown does not warrant a redraft selection as high as the sixth round based on his ADP of 72.
Andy Hicks - If Domanick Davis could stay healthy for a full season, then I’d feel comfortable with his current draft slot. Right now he is having trouble regaining fitness following off season surgery. Is he going to be a player the new coaching staff trusts or will he be discarded for a back that suits their system better? Right now, there are many more durable, quality backs to use my late first, early 2nd round pick on. Chris Smith - I was actually high on Davis earlier this season but the news out of Houston is he is having difficulty getting healthy and it doesn't appear he is going to withstand the grind of a 20-carry per game pace in '06. He has the tools to do very well this season but with his questionable healthy going into training camp, it is impossible to justify him going out as the 15th player in fantasy football. Look elsewhere for your running backs unless he drops to the latter stages of round two or beyond.
Chase Stuart - Steven Jackson is a young Rams RB, and fantasy drafters still remember the days when Faulk was head and shoulders above the rest of the NFL. But Faulk was an all-time great, and Jackson won’t just magically produce those numbers. His 4.1 yards per carry average matched the league average for running backs, and he ranked fourteenth in FP/G last year. Jackson’s got one of the hardest schedules in the league, and a significantly more difficult one than last year. With an ADP of 7, he’s going to have to improve quite a bit to meet that. Don’t forget that Jackson’s three best rushing games last season came when Marc Bulger was injured. Mark Wimer - Steven Jackson runs behind a very mediocre OL that has not been improved during free agency or the 2006 draft. As of the end of organized team activities/mini-camps, new head coach Linehan said that the offense is only about 40% installed, with short yardage/ red-zone portion of the attack yet to be worked upon. So, the Rams mediocre line is learning a new blocking scheme, and they haven’t even begun working on goal-line situations. Assuming that Jackson will vault into the top 10 at his position appears premature to me.
Mike Brown - The backs who are going just after him (Domanick Davis, Brian Westbrook, Julius Jones) all have their own issues, mostly with injuries, so one can expect that McGahee is a reasonable selection ahead of them. But I just think it might be best to steer clear of that whole crew and let someone else grab them. The early second round could be a nice place to grab your #1 WR this year and wait for a value RB later on. It’s a risky play, but I’d rather lock in a guy at WR1 that I know will produce rather than a RB2 who may or may not. Mark Wimer - McGahee disappointed in his second season, scoring only 5 TDs (325/1247/5 rushing and 28/178/0 receiving), while breaking the 100 yards-rushing barrier in only 1 game and punching in only a single score during the final half of the 2005 season. The team has a new coaching staff headed by Dick Jauron - nonetheless McGahee elected to skip the “voluntary” off-season OTAs and mini-camps, and he’s agitating for a new contract. He’s wildly over-rated at RB 12.
David Yudkin - Deuce is returning from a torn ACL, which normally yields lower numbers for RB in their first year back on the field. Add in that the Saints added all-world prospect Reggie Bush, and McAllister could see a much smaller piece of the RB pie. In recent seasons, the Saints RB totals have not been great and McAllister's value came from getting a huge majority of the workload. If Deuce is sluggish out of the gate, Bush could get the majority share and McAllister the leftovers.
Andy Hicks - Last year, against weak defenses Willie Parker was very good. A strong defense usually neutralized Parker. Parker was phenomenal for the first 2 weeks and the last 2 weeks of the regular season. In between he was decidedly average. Examining the numbers, he accrued a total of 602 yards and 3 TDs in these 4 weeks and 818 yards and 2 TDs in the other 12 weeks. This was further emphasized in the playoffs where in the 4 games he averaged less than 2.7 yards a carry, if we exclude his 75 yard touchdown run in the Super Bowl. If you choose to draft him in the 2nd or 3rd round beware that there will be many games which produce little reward. Can you afford that from your RB2?
Sigmund Bloom - Rhodes was not impressive last year and hasn’t shown anything of note since 2001. While he will have opportunity in Indianapolis with Edge gone, his ADP is too high for an RB of limited talent who may well end up in an RBBC.
Aaron Rudnicki - Taylor developed a reputation as an injury prone back early in his career, but eventually started to shake the ‘Fragile Freddie’ label when he played 2 full seasons in a row in 2002 and 2003. But, the injury problems appear to be coming back as he missed 5 games last year and also finished with the lowest yards per carry numbers of his career. Taylor turned 30 years old back in January and appears best suited to a part-time role at this point of his career. The Jaguars have also brought in a lot of talent at the RB position in recent years with the additions of Greg Jones, Maurice Drew, and Alvin Pearman so they no longer rely on him as much as they used to.
Maurile Tremblay - Notwithstanding DeShaun Foster’s injury history, a sixth-round pick is too high to spend on an NFL backup. Foster, not Williams, heads into the season as the starter, and will likely remain the starter as long as he is healthy. I know a lot of people think an injury to Foster is a sure thing; but I am of the general opinion that previous injuries do not portend future injuries. In any event, unless we are talking about a very special case like Larry Johnson 2005, I would recommend sticking with NFL starters in the first half of your fantasy draft.
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