Fantasy Football Info For Serious Players
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| Introduction • QB: [under] [over] • RB: [under] [over] • WR: [under] [over] • TE: [under] [over] | |||||||||||||||||||
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Undervalued RBs
Sigmund Bloom - The Broncos brought Dayne back and let Mike Anderson go, so you know they want to use him. It sure looks like Dayne will be given every shot to win the lion’s share of the RBBC with Tatum Bell, and a Cedric Cobbs pick late will protect your investment. David Dodds - When your backup is being drafted 33 picks before you are, you know something is wrong. Coach Shanahan has stated that Ron Dayne is the starter, because Bell runs softer later in the game (wears down with more carries). But despite Shanahan’s endorsement, many people refuse to buy into Ron Dayne. They remember the sluggish overweight runner they saw with the Giants. To those critics, all I can offer is that the Denver’s scheme is much closer to what Dayne ran at Wisconsin (where he ran wild). Dayne’s in much better shape these days and Denver consistently produces top backs. Note Mike Anderson finished as the tenth best RB last season despite missing a game. Andy Hicks - It’s easy to laugh about Ron Dayne, but his New York Giant past is irrelevant. He is in prime position to be the back that sees the most carries in Denver. None of Denver’s backs over the last 10 years were as highly drafted as he was and he suits the system perfectly. Mike Shanahan has stated he expects Dayne to see the most carries. After many dismissed his Mike Anderson talk last year, let logic rule, not emotion. Cecil Lammey - Dayne is the starter going into training camp, and unless he sustains an injury it should stay that way. Tatum Bell’s role has already been defined in this offense, and Dayne looks to take over the Mike Anderson role. Coaches are very excited to see Dayne in action full time, and Ron is excited to put his “bust” label behind him. He will be the #1 RB in the Denver system, and thus is a value play at his current ADP. Bob Magaw - This time last year, it would have seemed more likely that there would be an extraterrestrial planetary visitation (not counting Clinton Portis) than that the former Wisconsin Badger All-American could be in line for the coveted Denver Broncos starting RB gig opening day. While probably not as fast as Mike Anderson, he is a load once he gets a full head of steam and might be as good a fit in the DEN one cut and go scheme, with a chance to put up similar numbers. Despite home run hitter Tatum Bell getting 900+ yards and 8 TDs, MA still managed a top 10 finish among RBs. That is the power of the DEN running attack, and it could propel the one time NYG bust far beyond his current ADP value. Chase Stuart - Just typing “Ron Dayne” and “undervalued” on the same page seems weird. But he’s going to be the starting RB in Denver. No one believed head coach Mike Shanahan when he told us Mike Anderson was going to be the starter last year, and apparently there are doubters about Shanahan’s similar proclamation regarding Dayne this year. Shanahan’s top RB has ranked 9th on average during Shanahan’s 11 years in Denver. Ten of those years the Broncos have had a top 15 fantasy RB. I don’t love Dayne’s talent and I think his lofty 5.1 YPC average last year isn’t a strong prediction for 2006, but he presents way too much upside to have an ADP in the 7th round. Maurile Tremblay - Broncos head coach Mike Shanahan and general manager Ted Sundquist have indicated that Ron Dayne will fill Mike Anderson’s role from last year as the team’s starting running back. Tatum Bell is the more explosive runner, but Shanahan apparently believes that he is most effective when his touches are limited. The Broncos have been top five in rushing yards in five out of the last six seasons. Last year they rushed for 2539 yards and 25 TDs. Ron Dayne would need only a fifth of that production to live up to his current average draft position. David Yudkin - In the 11 years with Mike Shanahan as Denver HC, the RB corps has averaged 434 rushing attempts, 1,984 rushing yards, and 16 rushing TD with a 4.6 ypc Assuming an "average" Denver season, Dayne will likely see 60% of the carries (260 of 434) and TD (10 of the 16). Since most think Dayne is not in the same talent pool as other Denver RB of day's past, let's give him a 3.8 ypc (far below average for a Denver RB). Add it all up, and that gives Dayne 988 rushing yards and 10 TD. Give him a modest 70 receiving yards and that would total 165 fantasy points which last year would have ranked him as the #18 RB.
Sigmund Bloom - Gore finished the year on a hot streak and flashed big play and receiving in the closing weeks of 2005. He’s not going to be durable for the long haul, but he proved in 2005 that he could play hurt. Gore should be the starter unless he gets sidelined and he’s worth the risk after in the 5th round and later of most leagues. Mike Brown - At this point, it has become fairly evident that Kevan Barlow is not the answer in San Francisco. Whether Gore is the answer or not still remains to be seen, but he did more than Barlow a year ago despite 47 fewer carries. As we get closer to the season and it becomes more and more apparent that the job is Gore’s, expect his ADP to rise significantly. Clayton Gray - It appears that Frank Gore will be given every opportunity to be the 49ers' starting RB. While we're talking about the San Francisco offense, a probable starting back should not last into the seventh round. Gore can be easily had as a fantasy RB4, and that is some insane depth. Andy Hicks - Frank Gore averaged 1.5 yards more a carry than Kevan Barlow last year, yet he will be drafted as a RB3 or RB4. In the last 3 games of 2005, Gore demonstrated why he was drafted high considering his injury history. He now should have the inside edge to get the majority of carries for the 49ers in 2006 and while he may not be an elite back yet, he should be valuable for many a franchise. Aaron Rudnicki - Norv Turner is the new offensive coordinator in San Francisco and he has created fantasy stud RBs almost everywhere he’s been, including last year with LaMont Jordan in Oakland. Gore will have to beat out Kevan Barlow and certainly has some injury concerns based on his bad luck in college, but he’s a talented runner who averaged an impressive 4.8 yards per carry last year on a terrible 49ers offense. He finished as RB38 last year and could certainly push for a much higher finish this year if he wins the job early and stays healthy. Chris Smith - Last season, Gore managed to 608 yards on only 127 carries and scored 3 touchdowns. Not bad for a player on the rebound from devastating knee injuries and battling shoulder ailments throughout the season. This year, by all accounts Gore has rediscovered his second gear and has looked very good during camps. In addition, the 49ers offensive line looks to be improved and the entire offense cannot help but be better from a dreadful 2005 campaign. He should outperform his 77th overall draft slot by a substantial margin. David Yudkin - Gore took over for a banged up Kevan Barlow for the last three games of the season. In those games, he averaged 108 total yards of offense and 0.67 TD per game. Granted, that's a small sample size but that would be Top 10 in terms of fantasy production on a ppg basis. Gore may have done enough to supplant Barlow as the starter in San Francisco, and if that's the case Gore will produce way better than the RB 37.
Marc Levin - Barber has emerged as one of HC Bill Parcells' favorite players with tough inside running and the ability to block and to catch the ball out of the backfield. Parcells' Cowboys have averaged nearly 500 rush attempts per year, so, even if Julius Jones stays healthy, Barber will probably see 8-10 carries, plus a handful of targets, every game. Weekly numbers from a RB4/5 are what many owners want for bye weeks or to guard against a devastating rash of injuries to the RB position. Since Jones is injury prone, Barber's upside is that he could be a viable RB2 starter for a few weeks or more. His ADP places him two rounds or more behind all the "name" rookie RBs - and he is even further behind many RBs who are expected to split time. That is nice value for a running back drafted in the mid to late rounds. Jeff Pasquino - Barber is moments away from taking over the starting running back job in Dallas. He matched or outperformed RB Julius Jones with 3.9 yards per carry, six yards per catch, five touchdowns and first downs on 20% of their touches. The difference is that Barber scored five TDs on 119 fewer carries and does not suffer from an injury history. His ADP of 101 places this huge value in the ninth round of a redraft. Chris Smith - Last season, Barber finished as the 35th best fantasy running back with 539 rushing yards and 5 touchdowns. Head Coach Bill Parcels really likes him, and fellow running back Julius Jones has Parcels frustrated with his inability to stay healthy. Worst-case scenario for Barber this season would be numbers similar to a year ago. However there is a chance he will wrestle the starting job away from Barber with a great start to the year. He is good enough to make that happen and talented enough to ultimately become a fantasy star.
Bob Magaw - Though finishing three of four seasons on IR, CAR showed confidence with multi-year contract. Dangerous size/speed combo (6' 222 - prep 10.6 100 m) who had nearly 900 yards rushing despite getting more than 12 carries once through the first ten games (2005). Flashed signs of breaking out with 165 yards - 18 carries week 17 (ATL) and 151 yards - 27 carries in the wildcard tilt (NYG). HC John Fox is fiercely loyal to veterans (witness how he stood by Stephen Davis almost to a fault). Prized first rounder DeAngelo Williams is an essential handcuff, and he is too talented to not get his chance and run with it someday... but someday may not be 2006. Maurile Tremblay - DeShaun Foster will lead the Panthers’ power rushing attack as long as he stays healthy, and has the potential to put up some very nice numbers running behind the team’s strong offensive line. Look to the end of last season for proof: Foster closed out the season by rushing for 165 yards in the final regular season game, and then rushed for 151 yards in the Panthers’ first playoff game (before breaking his ankle in the second playoff game). Mark Wimer - When the Panther’s offense is operating as the coaching staff intends, the running backs log around 500 carries per season. With Stephen Davis out of the mix, DeShaun Foster is the Panther’s “featured” running back this year. He’ll get a lot of carries, and despite the team’s poor yards-per-carry average last year, Foster actually managed 4.3 yards per tote in his chances. Foster should easily outperform his ADP of RB 25.
Cecil Lammey - Chester will finally get a chance to prove himself as the “main man” at RB. He is a great receiver out of the backfield, and should be a big part of the offense in Minnesota. Much like LaMont Jordan last year, Taylor has been waiting patiently for his opportunity, and he can excel with increased playing time. Jeff Pasquino - Forget what you know about the Minnesota Vikings running backs. All of that has changed now that Brad Childress is in charge. Childress helped RB Brian Westbrook in Philadelphia to become a productive offensive player, and now Childress sees those same traits in Taylor. Look for Taylor to outperform his ADP of 33 and RB#21, potentially posting statistics on the level with a Brian Westbrook or Dominick Davis. David Yudkin - Taylor will be running behind Pro Bowlers Matt Birk, Steve Hutchinson, and Tony Richardson. Minnesota has stated they hope to get Taylor the ball 20-30 times a game and have relegated Mewelde Moore to special teams. Fear not the dreaded RBBC, as Childress tried to use a primary back in Philadelphia but due to injury often had to find other options (see Duce Staley's two solid years as the Eagles' No. 1 back).
David Baker - Despite being 30 years old, I like Taylor this year. He seems healthier than he's been since 2003 and there's been some indication that Jack Del Rio wants to build the offense around him, especially with the departure of WR Jimmy Smith to retirement. Taylor was recently seen in terrific shape, perhaps the best shape he's been in a long time, after going through a rigorous offseason training program with a personal trainer. He also did a lot of work on receiving. I think Taylor is going to have a huge comeback season. Mike Brown - The news surrounding Taylor has been nothing short of amazing this off-season. He came into minicamp in the best shape of his life, perhaps spurred on by contract negotiations and the team’s drafting of Greg Jones and Maurice Drew in recent seasons. Considering HC Jack Del Rio’s penchant to run the football, Taylor will have plenty of opportunity to greatly improve upon his 2005. Marc Levin - Taylor reported to the team in excellent shape after an offseason program designed to give him back his burst. Though there are several young RBs breathing down his neck in Jacksonville, Taylor is highly likely to be the team's primary back - at least between the 20s. His 4.1 yards per rush average in 2005 was the best of all Jacksonville RBs. Though his diminished use in the passing game and on the goal line is troubling, he is still capable of monster rushing yardage. His 2006 ADP places him squarely in the middle of the RB3 pack, and he falls more than 10 slots below RBs with a similar injury risk, such as Deuce McAllister, DeShaun Foster, and Corey Dillon. If he stays healthy, the Jaguars' commitment to the run should enable Taylor to amass sufficient rushing yardage for a finish in the top-20 for RBs - Taylor is all reward and little risk as an RB3.
Sigmund Bloom - The Titans drafted White to be a workhorse and he has a real shot to play a Rudi Johnson type role for Tennessee this year. White should get the goalline work at worst, and he should get a good shot to win the feature job from Chris Brown. His upside more than justifies a pick once you get into the 60s. Cecil Lammey - White went to a perfect situation, with a coach that will use him extensively, and an offensive coordinator that knows how to use him best. LenDale has a nose for the endzone, having ended his career at USC as the all-time leader in touchdowns. White is the perfect power back to play in a ball control offense, and give his inexperienced QB some relief. Sterling Sharpe recently called him “the darkhorse for Offensive Rookie of the Year.” Bob Magaw - Despite splitting time with the preternaturally gifted Reggie Bush and coming out a year early, he set a few conference and school rushing records (and the Trojans have a storied RB tradition). Viewed as a top 10 overall talent before his post-Combine/pre-draft freefall, the hamstring injury which prevented him from working out and was the primary cause of his descent appears to be fully healed leading up to training camp. Unlike nearly all rookies, he won't be challenged with a new scheme and inundated with unfamiliar terminology, as he will be reunited with his ex-OC Norm Chow. A TD machine that is a nasty, freakish combination of an Eddie George-like banger with the feet, agility, coordination and athleticism of a basketball player (his cousin is point guard Chauncey Billups of the Detroit Pistons). Watch him chew up yardage and mow down more DBs as a rookie than "Tsunami" Kobayashi does hot dogs.
Chris Smith - The more I think about Tatum Bell this season, the more I like his situation. Worst-case scenario appears to be he'll split time with Ron Dayne. Bell is explosive and is a threat to score from anywhere on the field. While Dayne may ultimately get more carries, I expect Bell to do much more when he gets the ball in his hands. We all know the Broncos track record when it comes to running the ball. Bell will be money in '06. Jason Wood - Mike Shanahan is trying to motivate Tatum Bell by declaring Ron Dayne the nominal starter. But don’t overthink things. This is RON DAYNE we’re talking about. The same guy that was supposed to be better than Tiki Barber. Bell isn’t a complete player, but his cutback style is a near perfect fit for the Broncos zone-blocking scheme and he can easily outperform his ADP substantially with 220-230 carries. I expect him to get closer to 270 carries; which could put him in the top-12.
David Dodds - Last year Reuben Droughns finished as the 14th best RB despite scoring just two TDs. In the off-season this team upgraded their offensive line. With a raw QB (Frye behind center), Droughns will get his opportunities. I see his floor at last year’s season and a ceiling that includes another 200 yards and 4-5 TDs. Jeff Pasquino - Reuben Droughns is the only running back in town for the Cleveland Browns, just like last season. Droughns posted over 1,600 all-purpose yards in 2005, but fell short of being a Top 10 running back because of his lack of touchdowns. Now that Cleveland has added more weapons on offense, look for the passing game to open more lanes for Droughns and for him to find the end zone on a regular basis to put him as a borderline #1 fantasy running back.
Marc Levin - Since joining the Falcons four years ago, Dunn has averaged 12 fantasy points per game and finished as a top-20 fantasy RB in three of those years, including a career best RB12 ranking in 2005. He is a consistent fantasy scorer who rarely hurts his owners (he had 5 games under 10 points, and only 3 games under 8 points, in 2005). While T.J. Duckett and Michael Vick steal goal line attempts, Dunn is the workhorse back on a powerhouse running offense. His ADP places him behind RBs with questions about playing time and experience, such as Reggie Bush, Willie Parker, Julius Jones, Chester Taylor, and Ronnie Brown. Dunn could easily finish in the top-15 RBs and ahead of many of those backs on both an overall and per game basis. Mark Wimer - The Falcons were the most successful rushing team in the league last season, averaging 4.79 yards per carry (1st in the NFL) while amassing 531/2546/17 on the ground. Warrick Dunn should once again approach 300 carries and 30 receptions playing in Atlanta this year – he’ll have too many yards and too many scoring opportunities to fall outside of the top 20 at his position.
Chase Stuart - Sure, Martin’s a 33 year old RB coming off an injury plagued season where he averaged just 3.3 YPC. Yet even in by far the worst season of Martin’s storied career, he ranked 29th, five spots higher than his current ADP of RB34. He’s just two years removed from leading the league in rushing, and he didn’t lose three steps in one year. He fought nagging injuries all season and faced 8 or 9 in the box because of the Jets anemic QB play. The Jets improved the OL this year, and Martin’s body should be rested after a light year of touches. One bad season isn’t enough to doom Martin, who will still clear 65 rushing yards per game. Mark Wimer - The Jets’ offense imploded last year when their #1 and #2 QBs went down to a series of shoulder injuries. Martins’ right knee got balky due to bone chips in the joint, and he ended the year prematurely. However, he’s still the top back in New York, and though there are rumors of a reduced role for Martin this season, he should still log enough touches to outperform his current ADP of 34.
Aaron Rudnicki - The Panthers wasted little time in picking Williams on draft day. He’s the NCAA’s career leader in yards from scrimmage and an explosive RB who could easily emerge as the feature back in Carolina this season. DeShaun Foster is coming off a broken leg suffered in the playoffs and has never proven himself to be a durable RB who can handle a heavy workload over an entire season. Jason Wood - The only thing stopping Williams from a monster rookie season is DeShaun Foster. Let me repeat…the only thing stopping Williams from a monster fantasy season is DeShaun “Injured Reserve” Foster.
Maurile Tremblay - I expect Addai to be the Colts’ starting running back this year, which would pretty much automatically make him a top fifteen fantasy running back. The Colts’ offense scores too many points for its starting running back to be a fantasy backup. I do not believe Dominic Rhodes is talented enough to keep Addai off the field.
Chase Stuart - Thomas Jones is a very good RB, one of the better all-purpose runners in the NFL. That being said, by mid-season the Bears will be Cedric Benson’s team. Benson’s a guy you’re going to absolutely want on your team for the fantasy playoffs, when he’s got a pretty easy schedule and should be getting 25 carries a game. His smash-mouth style is well-suited for the Bears, and he’s going to be a very good runner for a long time. He may not end the season a whole lot higher than his current ADP, but he’ll be a stud when it matters most.
Jason Wood - I’m not certain Gado will be the work horse in Green Bay with Green and Davenport returned from injury. However, he played far too well last year to assume that the new coaching staff won’t give him a chance to win a major role. Given Ahman Green’s age and downtrend in his performance, it shouldn’t surprise anyone if Gado starts a good portion of the season. At RB41, he screams value.
Mike Brown - Of all the non-first round running backs this year, none has as great of an opportunity to become a first rounder by 2007 than Kevin Jones. The addition of Mike Martz as offensive coordinator is a GREAT thing for Jones. Despite Martz’s tendency to throw the ball, his backs have consistently ranked amongst the best in the league when healthy. Jones will be “the man” in the running game and be an every-down back, and will also play a significant role in the passing game. If there’s one piece of advice I give this off-season, it’s to position yourself to draft Kevin Jones and reap the rewards.
Aaron Rudnicki - Jones finished 2005 as the #9 ranked fantasy RB despite missing a game and is a tremendous value as the 26th RB off the board. While many think Cedric Benson will overtake him, that is no guarantee at this point. Jones is a better blocker and has already proven himself in this system while Benson will need to win over the confidence of the coaching staff. There is some risk involved with Jones because of how much the Bears have invested in Benson, but he has enough upside to warrant a much earlier selection than this.
David Dodds - The fantasy community seems to have given the starting RB job over to rookie Joseph Addai. And that may very well be the case for 2007 going forward. But I am not ready to say that Addai wins this job out of camp. The Colts offense is very complex. And despite all the yards this offense generates, it has a suspect offensive line. The running back is expected to pick up the blitz and that fact alone will likely keep Addai in a reserve role through most of this season. I fully expect Dominic Rhodes to get a shot to prove what he is worth this season. At RB32, Dominic represents outstanding value. If he can hold off Addai and stay healthy all season, he has a shot at top 12 RB numbers.
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