Fantasy Football Info For Serious Players
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| Introduction • QB: [under] [over] • RB: [under] [over] • WR: [under] [over] • TE: [under] [over] | |||||||||||||||||||
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Overvalued QBs
Clayton Gray - As the second QB off the board, Palmer will need to play all 16 games just to justify that ADP. It is extremely unlikely that he'll be able to provide much upside here. If he does miss some time, this could be a horrible pick. Andy Hicks - To see Carson Palmer being drafted as the 2nd QB is shocking. His knee injury was serious, with two torn ligaments, yet he is being drafted as if he’ll be fit for the season opener. Even if he plays in the season opener, missing Training Camp & some or all of Pre season will take its toll early in the season. If you are looking for a guy who may do well in the 2nd half of the season Palmer might be your man, but to use an early 4th round pick is a waste. Chris Smith - Let me get this straight. Palmer is coming off of knee surgery, may have problems starting by week one, could see his numbers drop slightly from an amazing 2006 season with a team actually built to pound the ball when they get a lead and he is being drafted as the 2nd quarterback taken, only 38 spots into the draft. This is a year when you are much better off waiting until at least round six before considering a quarterback. There is a ton of options at the position and you can land a very good quarterback while loading up at running back and receiver. Taking Palmer early this season is a mistake, plain and simple. Jason Wood - Don’t get me wrong, Carson Palmer on talent and opportunity is easily worth a 4th round pick in 10-team leagues. But this guy got his knee busted up a little over six months ago and, while he appears to be ahead of schedule, can you really afford to take a chance on him that early? David Yudkin - Palmer suffered a serious knee injury in January with a typical recovery time of 12 months, meaning Palmer will try to return in 8-9 months. There is no guarantee that he will come back at 100% out of the gate. There were reasons to think that Palmer would have had difficulty repeating his 2005 totals even without an injury. The Bengals defense forced 44 turnovers last year-a number they will be hard pressed to come close to this year. They also have a lot tougher schedule (NFC South, AFC West, NE, IND). Combine these factors and Palmer will have an uphill battle to rank as the #2 QB.
Mike Brown - I have Brady ranked as the #4 QB, and think he’ll perform very well. I also know that I won’t have him on any of my teams. Why? While some people fall over themselves to land Brady in the fourth round, I’ll sit back and grab my #2 WR or #3 RB and then wait for the QB value to emerge. There’s plenty of it this year, and no shortage of terrific QBs in the middle rounds. There isn’t much difference between QB4 and QB14 this year, so wasting such a high pick doesn’t make mathematical sense. Aaron Rudnicki - Everybody knows that Tom Brady is one of the best QBs in the league, and he’s coming off the best statistical season of his career when he finished as the #2 ranked QB in the league. However, he finished as QB9, QB11, and QB10 in the three previous seasons so last year looks like it might have been a little bit of a fluke. The Patriots defense was much worse than usual and the running game wasn’t all that effective so Brady had to throw the ball a lot more than Belichick would probably prefer. This year, the team lost David Givens in free agency and added a 1st round RB in Laurence Maroney. Brady should still be a top-10 QB but QB3 seems very optimistic. Maurile Tremblay - Tom Brady is an excellent NFL quarterback, but he’s finished as a top eight fantasy quarterback only once. It was last year, of course, which is why he’s ranked so highly this year – fantasy owners have short memories. But even if Brady is appropriately ranked as the third-best fantasy quarterback this year, a fourth-round pick is too high for any quarterback not named Peyton Manning. There are many solid quarterbacks who will be available several rounds later, so passing up a starting-quality running back or wide receiver in the fourth round is not worthwhile. Trent Green and Jake Plummer, for example, are being drafted in the eighth round this year. Would you rather have Tom Brady and Marion Barber III, or Trent Green and DeShaun Foster? David Yudkin - Brady benefited from injuries on both sides of the ball and a depleted RB corps. New England had 85 fewer rushing attempts and 80 more passing attempts than in 2004. Look for the team to reestablish the run, especially with questionable WR depth this year. With better health all around and the defense not giving up 30 points a game, Brady should see his numbers adjust back to when he ranked in the QB 9-11 range.
Marc Levin - While Manning finished as the 4th best fantasy QB in 2005, he really fell apart in the fantasy playoffs. On the year, he had a poor 52% completion percentage and he threw the second most interceptions (17) of all QBs. The quarterback pool this year is exceptionally deep, and the value at the position is several rounds after Manning's current ADP, where QBs like Jake Delhomme, Drew Bledsoe, Trent Green, and Jake Plummer are being selected. Select Manning if he falls a couple of rounds, but, at his current ADP, the fantasy owner is better served by drafting a starting WR or elite TE. Chris Smith - Sure Manning had a breakout season of sorts last year (interceptions aside) but there is no reason to get silly and draft him in the 4th or 5th round this year. The Giants have a terrible schedule this year, clearly the worst in the NFL and even if he improves as a player this year, he'll have a very tough time approaching the numbers he put up in 2006. There is no way he should be considered before round seven. Chase Stuart - Eli Manning was a below average QB last year that was a fantasy stud because he was a compiler. He ranked 2nd in interceptions, 3rd in pass attempts, 4th in passing TDs and 5th in passing yards. He completed just 53% of his passes, ranked 23rd in QB rating (out of 30 QBs) and ranked 20th in adjusted yards per attempt. He did this despite facing a schedule that was easier than average. Sure, if Manning improves a ton or again ranks in the top 3 in pass attempts, he’ll be worth his ADP – but that’s asking a lot. Maurile Tremblay - Eli Manning had a very good fantasy season last year. He finished as the #4 fantasy quarterback, but that was largely because he had the third most pass attempts in the league. The Giants as a team, in fact, had the second most offensive plays in the league. Number of offensive plays is not highly correlated from year to year, however; and if Manning’s number of pass attempts falls back to the pack this season, his fantasy numbers will as well. It is also worth mentioning Manning did not finish the 2005 season nearly as efficiently as he started it, and the Giants have a brutal 2006 schedule.
David Dodds - I saw this injury on the TV as it happened. I then proceeded to watch it another 4 to 5 times. It is ingrained in my memory. I don’t believe Daunte Culpepper can be the mobile player he used to be this season. I am not convinced he will even be able to play before the midway mark in 2006. And even if he can somehow get on the field with a limp, I remain skeptical that he will torch the league with a new offense and new receivers. Let others burn a pick on this player. He is not going to repeat his electric numbers from a few seasons ago anytime soon. Andy Hicks - There are many reasons to be wary of Daunte Culpepper this season. First of all is his health. Will he be fit for the season opener? Next is the change of scenery. Those who take Daunte are likely to have to draft him as their starter. Can he learn a new offense quickly? Does he have a player the caliber of Randy Moss to make him look like an elite QB? One also has to see what his performances were like before he was injured in 2005. Is putrid too strong a word? Will his crucial running be affected by his knee injury? There are too many questions surrounding Culpepper for me to take him as my starter. Mark Wimer - Culpepper’s gruesome knee injury (torn right ACL, MCL, and PCL) was inflicted 10/30/05 – recovery will take time. He has stated: “I'm not going to predict, or rush myself or be unsmart about anything about it because I know it's a very sensitive injury. Only a couple people have ever had it and came back from it…” While all reports have indicated he’s making great strides in his recovery, we have yet to see him play with the pads on. I feel he’s far too risky for his current ADP.
Clayton Gray - In a re-draft league, taking Cutler only makes sense if you have Plummer as well, but even that isn't a must do move. The idea that Cutler is being drafted less than a full round after Jon Kitna is mindboggling. Jeff Pasquino - Jay Cutler is a rookie on a team that is contending for a Super Bowl. With Jake Plummer at the helm in 2005, Denver did just fine to win the division and also a playoff game. Cutler is valued based upon his potential and the skills of the newly acquired WR Javon Walker, but even if he were to see playing time the offense would definitely change gears to even more of the ground game. Jason Wood - The fact that Jay Cutler is being drafted ahead of Billy Volek, Vince Young and Brad Johnson is outright laughable. Sure he’s got potential. But he’s also a gunslinger who threw a ton of turnovers in college. That may be because he had no supporting cast, but how do we know he can become more disciplined in the Pros? Meanwhile Jake Plummer is entrenched and actually has played exceptionally well for Denver save for a playoff game or two.
Cecil Lammey - Hasselbeck and the Seahawks ended 2005 on a sour note, losing Super Bowl XL to the Steelers. The bad news for him, is that it’s not going to get any better in 2006. This is a very good year to wait drafting a QB, so let someone else in your league take Hasselbeck too high. Chase Stuart - Matt Hasselbeck’s currently the fourth QB off the board, which I think largely reflects his fifth place finish last year. When you adjust Hasselbeck’s numbers for actual games played and strength of schedule, he was just the 9th best QB last year and barely above average. His Seahawks faced a very easy schedule last year, and Hasselbeck stayed healthy, so he ended up with strong numbers. But by himself he’s not a big time fantasy guy because he’s not a runner and Shaun Alexander scores too many TDs. And of course, Joe Jurevicious and his 10 TDs don’t return in 2006.
Cecil Lammey - Is there any other QB that is more over-hyped than Michael Vick? Vick is a phenomenal playmaker with the ball in his hands. But he is most threatening when running the ball, and hasn’t developed as a passer like the Falcons had hoped. It’s his lack of a 2nd dimension as a QB that allows defenses to key on him running and that limits his effectiveness. If Vick were to ever develop as a passer he could be the next Steve Young. Currently he’s more Kordell Stewart than Steve Young. Jeff Pasquino - Vick has never played 16 games in a season and his fantasy totals are very erratic. His rushing compensates for his shortcomings as a passer, where he has never thrown 20 touchdowns. Over the past two years, he has scored over 20 fantasy points 12 times, but also totaled less than 13 points in 14 games. The lack of good WRs and a strong run game limits his passing totals.
Sigmund Bloom - It’s not a good idea to invest a top 100 pick on Warner. He’s too injury prone and old. He’s also got Matt Leinart breathing down his neck. It doesn’t help that Edgerrin James will boost the running offense. Warner is too risky to count on for anything but a stretch of decent games to begin the year. Aaron Rudnicki - Kurt Warner hasn’t finished among the top-15 fantasy QBs since 2001 when he was the league MVP. Since then, he has missed 35 games over the past 4 seasons (an average of almost 9/year) and thrown 21 TDs to 25 INTs. His fantasy points/game played should be good with the weapons he has at his disposal now, but he takes far too many sacks to remain healthy for an entire season and the Cardinals have one of the worst offensive lines in the league. The addition of Edgerrin James also means the Cardinals will have more a balanced offensive attack so Warner is unlikely to be throwing 40 times/game like he was last year. Matt Leinart is also a legitimate threat to take over the starting job at some point if Warner struggles.
Sigmund Bloom - Terrell Owens effect on QBs fantasy fortunes is well known, but I just can’t buy in enough to slot Bledsoe as a top 12 QB. He’s worthless unless his line gives him time and Bill Parcells wants to play ball control football. His second half last year was putrid. I would only want Bledsoe as the 2nd part of a QBBC.
David Dodds - Mike Martz left. Let me repeat that. Mike Martz is not in charge of this offense anymore. In fact the person in charge likes balance. He likes to run the ball. He likes shorter passing routes. People are drafting Bulger as if nothing has changed…when in reality everything has changed. I expect Bulger to slide back to the pack this year playing within the new system. The Rams may be better for it, but Bulger’s fantasy stats will likely take a hit.
Mike Brown - By now, you know how this works. Peyton Manning is the #1 QB in the fantasy world, and should put up his usual 4,000 yards and 30-35 TD for the 34th year in a row. At the end of the year, his stats may very well land him in the top ten players. But the QB position is deeper than it’s been in years, and there is no need to spend so high on a stud when there is so much value to be had later on. Taking Manning means you miss out on one of the stud WRs or your RB2, positions that will be much harder to fill (if not impossible) later in the draft.
Mark Wimer - Rivers isn’t a rookie anymore, but he’s seen only a miniscule amount of live NFL action (passing 17/30 for 148 yards, 1 TD and 1 interception in 2 years). He’s still got to prove himself as a full-time starter. That’s not a fantasy QB #2 in my book, but at QB22 he’s being drafted as if he is worthy of that roster slot.
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