Fantasy Football Info For Serious Players
|
|
Login / Signup |
|
| Introduction • QB: [under] [over] • RB: [under] [over] • WR: [under] [over] • TE: [under] [over] | |||||||||||||||||||
|
Undervalued QBs
Clayton Gray - From 2001 through 2004, Brooks finished as the sixth, sixth, fifth, and eighth ranked fantasy QB. In 2005, he became the most prolific QB to lose his home stadium to a hurricane. Of course that's an outrageous claim, but it points to the fact that his 2005 stats can be discounted as almost nothing went right for the Saints last year. Brooks is not a natural leader, but he is capable of producing quality fantasy stats. It is perfectly reasonable to expect him to match Kerry Collins' numbers from a year ago and finish among the top ten fantasy QBs. Marc Levin - Last year aside, Brooks was consistently a top-8 fantasy QB, even if his real world quarterbacking skills were questionable. Though he still has to earn the starting role, Brooks is the best QB in Oakland right now and he steps into situation that is even better than the one that had owners drooling over Kerry Collins in 2005. The Raiders' OL is an upgrade for Brooks and, with his strong arm, he should be able to wing the ball far enough downfield for Moss to do his thing. Expect Brooks to return to top-10 fantasy QB form as the Raiders' lack of defense will result in quite a few shootout and comeback efforts. At his current ADP, Brooks represents tremendous value. Aaron Rudnicki - Like almost every other player on the Saints after Katrina hit, Brooks struggled last year. But, it would be a mistake to ignore his 4 consecutive top-10 fantasy finishes in the years prior. He’s now taking over the job in Oakland where journeyman Kerry Collins finished as the #9 ranked fantasy QB last year. With Randy Moss, Jerry Porter and LaMont Jordan at his disposal, he shouldn’t have much trouble finishing as a top-10 QB this year. Chase Stuart - Aaron Brooks ranked 7th last year in adjusted fantasy points per game – that’s adjusted for actual games played and strength of schedule. So despite playing without Joe Horn and Deuce McAllister for most of the year – and playing zero home games – Brooks was pretty good. Now add to that Randy Moss, LaMont Jordan, Joey Porter and one of the league’s worst defenses, and the entire fantasy community is missing out on Aaron Brooks. He could easily rank in the top 10 fantasy QBs this year despite not playing one bit better than he did in 2005. Jason Wood - Aaron Brooks had consecutive top-8 fantasy finishes from 2001-2004, and then despite falling out of favor last year managed to finish 16th in only 13 games. Always the beneficiary of garbage time, he goes to a team, the Raiders, that could easily have the league’s worst defense. He’s also playing for an owner that mandates a downfield passing attack. And rather than throwing to Joe Horn and Donte Stallworth, he gets to throw to Randy Moss and Jerry Porter. Brooks is a top-10 fantasy option in any scoring format. David Yudkin - Kerry Collins was a Top 10 QB once in 10 seasons before coming to Oakland. Last year, even getting benched for a game at the end of the season, he ranked 9th. Adding in another game at the same rate of production and Collins would have ranked as the #4 QB. Now enter Aaron Brooks. He ranked in the Top 10 four years in a row (and was also Top 10 in ppg his rookie season as well). And he gets to throw to Randy Moss.
Clayton Gray - This ADP makes no sense. Drew Bledsoe finished the 2005 season as the sixth ranked fantasy QB. Over the offseason, the Cowboys replaced Keyshawn Johnson with Terrell Owens. Bledsoe is now the 11th QB off the board. Even if adding Owens doesn't improve the passing game, Bledsoe should not suffer a drop-off in production. Will Grant - His value has come down a bit as the summer wears on but Bledsoe is still one of the better ‘bang for the buck’ QBS. For the low-cost price of a 8th round draft pick, you can land a QB who will probably finish in the top five now that Owens is in the fold. The Oline is a bit of a cause for concern, but if you’re picking up a QB who is going to outscore half the league starting QBS in the 8th round, you’re doing very well. Andy Hicks - Drew Bledsoe finished 6th last year in the QB rankings. He got a major upgrade in Terrell Owens as his main receiver and an improved offensive line, yet he’s a borderline starter according to his draft slot? Every starting QB that’s played a full season with Owens as a target has been a top three QB: Steve Young in 1998, Jeff Garcia for 2 years and Donovan McNabb in 2004. If Bledsoe stays upright he will go very close to joining that list. Aaron Rudnicki - Bledsoe hasn’t missed a single game since 2001 so durability isn’t a concern. He finished 2005 as the #6 ranked fantasy QB, but the addition of Terrell Owens will likely improve his numbers and should result in a top-5 finish this year. Chris Smith - Last season without having WR Terrell Owens in the huddle, Bledsoe finished as the 6th best quarterback in fantasy football. He should have an improved offensive line this season and he'll be throwing to Owens, Terry Glenn and Jason Witten. Even if he doesn't improve on that this season he is certainly a value pick as the 11th quarterback off of the board.
David Baker - Kitna has already shown in the past that he can put up good numbers when he's the starter. Now he adds offensive guru Mike Martz to his side and Martz seemed to help the numbers for guys like Kurt Warner and Marc Bulger. Having weapons has helped those players, of course, but I like what Detroit offers there, with Kevin Jones and Roy Williams, along with Marcus Pollard, Corey Bradford, Mike Williams and Charles Rogers. Kitna could very easily end up with top ten numbers. Mike Brown - As I and many others have pounded home all off-season, perhaps the most significant acquisition in fantasy circles this off-season was Mike Martz heading from Saint Louis to Detroit. Upon joining the Rams, he turned one of the league’s worst offenses into one of the best ever, and he’s got just as much talent to work with in the Motor City. Kitna will lead that talent, and he’d have to try really hard to NOT throw for at least 3,500 yards and 20+ TD – making him easy value in the 13th round. Chris Smith - Let's get this straight. Kitna, who is the starting quarterback in a Mike Martz offense, just a couple of years away from being the 8th best fantasy quarterback is being drafted on average as the 25th quarterback off the board. Not only is he a value pick but he may represent the best value in the entire draft. He will be a borderline fantasy starter this year and he should be off the board well before the 153rd pick. David Yudkin - OC Mike Martz has made little known QB into stars. Trent Green, Kurt Warner, and Marc Bulger were unheralded before Martz helped turn them into Top 10 QB in their first years as starters. In limited time as a full-time starter, Kitna has ranked in the Top 10 previously with both the Seahawks and Bengals. As a QB coach, OC, or HC, Martz' teams have averaged 4445/28 passing with a low of 3581/22. The Lions produced 3021/15 last year.
Will Grant - People just don’t seem to like Jake Plummer. Plummer finished 11th overall for fantasy QBs in 2005 despite no clear-cut #2 WR after Rod Smith. With Javon Walker and bigger gaps in the running game than last season, Plummer should finish 2006 with much better numbers than he had last season. That could land him in the top 10 for fantasy QBs, and given you solid value for your 8th round pick. Cecil Lammey - Don’t call it a comeback. Jake Plummer is now more motivated than ever. Finishing one game from the Super Bowl and performing so poorly in the AFC Championship game have given Plummer a renewed sense of focus and motivation. That plus the Broncos drafted Jay Cutler to be their QB of the future. Jake sees the writing on the wall, and 2006 sees him with even more weapons on offense than before. Jake is a very good pick that presents a lot of value. Jason Wood - Each and every year, Jake Plummer isn’t shown the respect he deserves in fantasy circles. Yet, he owns Denver’s single season records for yards (4,089) and TDs (27), not John Elway. Sure, he took a step back last year, but he was still the 11th best quarterback. With Javon Walker added to the mix, and the least certain ground game in his tenure, he’s a virtual certainty to handily outperform his current ADP.
Sigmund Bloom - Trent Green has finished in the top 8 QBs each of the last four years. Herm Edwards could hamper the offense with his philosophy, but Green is still a good bet to stay in the top 10 with his line and weapons. He’s an especially good QB to target in leagues that emphasize yardage. Mark Wimer - Since 2002, Green has finished 8th, 3rd, 4th and 8th at his position by years end. Despite his proven track record of top-10 finishes in Kansas City, he’s being drafted outside the top 10 at his position. Tony Gonzalez and Eddie Kennison haven’t gone anywhere, and Larry Johnson is skilled as a receiver too. What’s not to like here?
Marc Levin - When McNair was traded to the Baltimore Ravens, he stepped into a situation that should give him a little déjà vu to the successful Tennessee Titan teams of the early 2000s. There is the familiar face of WR Derrick Mason, Jamal Lewis is a bruising RB akin to Eddie George, Todd Heap may be more talented than Frank Wycheck, and, though the OL and defense are beginning to show their age, they are solid. It is reasonable to believe that McNair can have a renaissance in Baltimore under HC Brian Billick and OC Jim Fassel, who built an offense that is missing only one piece - a smart quarterback. Don’t let the AFC North defenses worry you - McNair faced those tough defenses before realignment. Injuries remain a concern, but McNair should produce numbers closer to Ben Roethlisberger, who is being drafted 31 slots ahead of him at QB16, than David Carr, who is the next player on the ADP list. Jeff Pasquino - Steve McNair comes to Baltimore and is reunited with WR Derrick Mason. Mason posted multiple 1,000+ yard seasons with McNair in Tennessee, and his is just one of the targets for McNair. TE Todd Heap and WR Mark Clayton provide McNair with good targets on a ballclub that has been desperate for talent at the quarterback position. Look for McNair to outperform his ADP of 129 (and QB#20) by a significant margin.
Chase Stuart - Philip Rivers represents more value than any other player in fantasy football. He’s taking over for Drew Brees, who ranked as the 7th best fantasy QB last year. Yet Rivers has a stronger arm than Brees and has been praised for his great ability to read defenses along with superb accuracy. Don’t worry about his NFL inexperience – that’s the only reason he’s not ranked highly right now, but Kurt Warner, Daunte Culpepper, Ben Roethlisberger, Chad Pennington and Marc Bulger have excelled with similar or less experience in recent years. This time next year, he’ll be among the top 5 or 10 QBs drafted. Maurile Tremblay - The Chargers’ offense has been top five in scoring in each of the past two seasons, and produced the number seven fantasy quarterback last year. With arguably the best running back and best tight end in the league, as well as a sure-handed pair of wide receivers, the Chargers’ offense should score a lot of points again in 2006. A number twenty-two fantasy ranking is far too low for a quarterback in such a high-powered offense.
David Dodds - The thing with Kurt Warner is that everyone expects him to get hurt. But in the games he will play, he will likely be a top 6 QB. He possesses the best WRs in the game and now has a RB that can catch out of the backfield in Edgerrin James. Despite playing just 10 games last year, Kurt registered five 300-yard performances. QB14 last year scored 246 fantasy points. Kurt Warner scored 173 fantasy points playing in just 8 full games (and playing about half the game in two others). Couple Kurt with a late round QB like Kitna, Rivers, Simms and you will have top value at an incredible bargain. Bob Magaw - Two-time league MVP Warner hands off to prized free agent and four-time Pro Bowler Edge, and with the zip on his fastball back (about 2,500 passing yards and 10 TD passes in the equivalent of a half season - 2005), gets to throw to WRs with the top first two and three year reception totals in NFL history in Fitzgerald and Boldin. The much maligned OL (deservedly) should be upgraded by the addition of second round mauler Deuce Latui and respected new position coach Steve Loney, formerly with the Vikings. The Cards defense is underrated but top 10 caliber and could get the ball back for the offense with even greater frequency in 2006 due to the return of Bert Berry and Antrel Rolle. Opponents could be feeling shock and awe in the desert. Don't forget to handcuff with Matt Leinart later.
Jeff Pasquino - Drew Brees is well on the road to recovery from a shoulder injury and has another stable of weapons at his disposal. Two pass-catching running backs (Reggie Bush and Deuce McCallister), two respectable wide receivers in Joe Horn and Donte Stallworth, and an underrated huge target in TE Zach Hilton. Brees can put up another set of Pro Bowl numbers, which is a great value for the projected 15th quarterback to go off the board in a redraft league.
Mike Brown - New OC Al Saunders and current HC Joe Gibbs both have proven track records of running successful offenses. The Redskins made a number of upgrades to their offensive personnel this off-season, particularly the signings of WRs Brandon Lloyd and Antwaan Randle-El. Considering Brunell finished last year as the #14 QB without those guys and Saunders, I don’t think he’ll have any trouble living up to #24 (which is where he’s being taken).
Mark Wimer - If the new offense in St. Louis provides Marc Bulger with better pass protection and longer to throw the ball, he could break into the elite ranks at his position in terms of total fantasy points per season. Assuming he takes less physical punishment, he may be able to complete a 16 game slate, which would definitely improve his fantasy prospects. Torry Holt, Isaac Bruce, Kevin Curtis and Shaun McDonald are capable of making Bulger look very good on Sundays.
Sigmund Bloom - Carr has gained QB guru Gary Kubiak and the WR corps has gained a real #2 in Eric Moulds. Kubiak turned Jake Plummer’s career around, and Carr arguably has better tools. Carr is also a good runner and has the skills to finish in the top 15 QBs. He’s a great QB to target if you like to wait to take a backup QB.
David Baker - There's only one thing standing in the way of Culpepper having another big year – health. If he's healthy, Culpepper has weapons like Ronnie Brown, Chris Chambers and Marty Booker and an offensive line in better shape than last year. He's the same Culpepper that was a top scoring QB in FF for four of the last six years. His health is the only question.
Andy Hicks - It is easy to see why Jake Delhomme could be a steal at his current slot. Steve Smith is an elite WR; Elite WRs generally need a reliable QB to make them look good. Delhomme has demonstrated that for the last 3 years. The addition of Keyshawn Johnson gives Delhomme the extra dimension he needs to move from a starting quality QB, to an elite fantasy QB. The progression of Drew Carter and a stronger running game will also help propel Delhomme to a new level.
Bob Magaw - Jacksonville may have the most towering assemblage of WR/TE weapons in NFL history. First rounders Marcedes Lewis (2006), Matt Jones (2005) and Reggie Williams (2004) are between 6'4" - 6'6"... as is probable WR3 and possible starter Ernest Wilford, who was a fourth rounder. Lefty (himself 6'5", which makes for nice sightlines of his downfield targets over modern day linemen behemoths) was enjoying a breakthrough season and was pacing for over 25 combined TDs before a regular season-ending leg injury. The ex-Marshall star showed up at OTAs trimmer and reportedly is working on his quickness and getting rid of the ball sooner. If his WRs show signs of development and Lewis is as good as advertised, the could be the year he breaks out into the ranks of the elite NFL QBs.
Maurile Tremblay - Most fantasy leagues award 2 or 2.5 times as many points for rushing yards as for passing yards. So Vick’s 600 or so projected rushing yards are like an extra 1200 or 1800 passing yards. If he can throw for close to 3,000 passing yards like he did in 2002, he could be a top three fantasy quarterback again like he was in 2002. Last season’s #10 finish (on just 2400 passing yards) probably represents his downside barring injury, and he is currently being drafted as the #10 QB this year. At his current ADP, he is all upside.
David Dodds - The 31st QB last year finished with 115 fantasy points. The Tennessee Titans passing game (under Steve McNair and Billy Volek) last season produced 3,635 yards, 20 TDs and 269 fantasy points. McNair has moved on and rookie Vince Young is too green to start under center. Billy Volek has no where to go but up from this draft spot.
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Forums |
News |
Football stats |
Login / Signup |
Contact
Us |