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Value Plays (IDP)

In an attempt to give you more information to dominate your IDP leagues, we went through every single team in the league and picked out some players that we think are currently being overvalued or undervalued by the fantasy community in general. We primarily focused on their prospects for this upcoming season, but most IDP leagues use a dynasty or keeper format so these selections could also be applied there as well. In addition to highlighting the players who are most likely to underperform or overperform this year, we also picked out a deep sleeper for each team. Those are players that you don't necessarily need to pick up right now, but are probably worth keeping an eye on as they could develop into fantasy starters at some point down the road. Good luck this year, and feel free to post any IDP-related questions you have on our IDP Forum at http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showforum=31 and we'll do our best to answer them or at least point you in the right direction.

AFC EAST

Buffalo Bills

Overvalued: SS Donte Whitner

The Bills surprised a lot of people when they took Whitner with the 8th overall draft pick. He's expected to take over for Lawyer Milloy at SS, but the team also has an experienced veteran in place with Matt Bowen so the team could choose to bring him along slowly. Not only will Whitner have to compete for playing time, but he'll also have a lot of competition for tackles once he gets on the field. The Bills have one of the league's best LB tandems playing in front of him with London Fletcher and Takeo Spikes, and they also have two very capable tacklers at the CB spot in Nate Clements and Terrence McGee. The Bills new defense should also give more coverage responsibility to the SS than the Bills old system did, which means fewer chances to come up and support the run.

Undervalued: LB Takeo Spikes

Like most players coming back from a serious injury, Spikes is likely to be undervalued by a lot of people this year. Part of the reason is that people will be concerned about the Achilles injury and whether he will still have the same explosiveness he had before the injury. All reports indicate that he should be back to 100% when training camp opens though so there is reason for optimism. The other reason to be optimistic regarding Spikes this year is the new Bills defense, which will put him in a position to make a ton of plays. The WLB in the Tampa 2 often winds up leading the team in tackles while also getting plenty of chances to make plays. Spikes is an excellent tackler and is perhaps the Bills best playmaker so if he's healthy, he could certainly be in for a top-10 type of season.

Deep sleeper: LB Angelo Crowell

With the return of Takeo Spikes this year, his understudy Crowell has now become an afterthought for most IDP owners. There is a decent chance, however, that he could take over the starting job on the strong side from Jeff Posey in the Bills new defense. Additionally, if Spikes has any type of setback in his recovery, Crowell is the person most likely to benefit. In that scenario, he could be moved back to the WLB job that helped him finish as a top-20 LB last year, and could also open up a spot in the team's nickel package for him as well. The Bills signed Crowell to a 3-year contract extension this offseason so he is clearly in their long-term plans.

Miami Dolphins

Overvalued: LB Zach Thomas

Thomas has been one of the best and most productive MLBs since entering the league in 1996. Over a 10-year career, he's averaged 89 solo tackles and 53 assists per season. He's also coming off the most productive season he's had since his rookie year. But, Thomas will be 33 years old when the season begins and has been showing signs of wearing down in recent years. He's missed 5 games over the past two years and his split stats also show a decline in production as the year goes on. He's undoubtedly a warrior who will play through most types of injuries, but a drop-off in production is going to happen at some point. Better to get away from him one year too soon than to hold onto him one year too long.

Undervalued: S Renaldo Hill

Hill finished with a very impressive 75 solo tackles last year while playing a type of CB/S hybrid position for the Raiders. He doesn't have great size at 5'11", 190 pounds but he's a physical player and a solid tackler with the range to make a lot of plays. The Dolphins signed him this offseason to take over one of their safety spots and there appears to be a decent chance that he could be the starting SS when the season starts. Nick Saban prefers safeties who are athletic, smart, and can cover over big, strong hitters who play up in the box so Hill could be a great fit. He should put up similar tackle numbers but an increase in interceptions (had 5 in 2003) could easily push him up into the top-30 fantasy DBs.

Deep sleeper: CB Will Poole

Poole drew comparisons to Antoine Winfield when he entered the league due to his physical style of play and tackling ability. After spending his rookie year on the bench, he had a good chance to claim a starting job in 2005 but suffered a torn ACL during minicamp and missed the entire season. This year, he'll likely be a backup to either Will Allen or Travis Daniels, but he could see regular playing time if he wins the nickel back job and would see a big bump in value if one of the starters went down with an injury.

New England Patriots

Overvalued: LB Tedy Bruschi

Bruschi is an easy player to like because he plays with a lot of passion and always seems to come up with a big play when his team needs it the most. But, as is the case with most players who rely on big plays, his production from week to week can be inconsistent. Bruschi is also 33 years old and coming off a year that saw him miss half the season while recovering from a stroke, so he could decide to retire if any more health problems arise. Lastly, it is somewhat unclear who will start next to him at the other ILB spot, and he could wind up having to play more conservatively if that player struggles.

Undervalued: DL Richard Seymour

Even though he has gone to four Pro Bowls, is in the prime of his career, and is widely regarded as one of the best defensive players in the league, Seymour's value is at an all-time low. He missed a few games in each of the past two years with injuries and his fantasy production has been somewhat underwhelming. Prior to those two seasons, however, he was a top-30 fantasy DL and if he can stay healthy he has a decent chance to return to that level.

Deep sleeper: CB Ellis Hobbs

The Patriots have gone through a ton of cornerbacks in recent years but Hobbs looks like he's going to be around for awhile. He took over a starting job midway through his rookie season and still managed to tie for the team lead in interceptions with 3. Hobbs doesn't have great size or speed but he's a good zone defender and a willing run defender. He may not ever become a top-30 type fantasy DB, but he has a chance to develop into a solid depth player who can contribute to your team as situational starter.

New York Jets

Overvalued: LB Jonathan Vilma

Few linebackers have entered the league with as much hype as Vilma, who drew comparisons to Ray Lewis at the same stage of their careers. He managed to live up to the hype too, leading the league in tackles during just his second year in the league and finishing as the #1 highest scoring IDP in most scoring systems. This year, however, things are changing considerably in New York and Vilma is likely to see a production drop-off as a result. New head coach Eric Mangini plans to implement a hybrid 3-4/4-3 defense like the one the Patriots have used for the past few years. The Jets are lacking a true NT and Vilma is somewhat undersized to play ILB in a 3-4, so he could have a hard time fighting through traffic and chasing down plays.

Undervalued: LB Eric Barton

Barton finished as a top-20 fantasy linebacker every year from 2002 to 2004, but wound up missing nearly the entire 2005 season with an ankle injury and torn triceps muscle. Unlike other players recovering from a torn ACL or other serious injury, he's expected to be 100% when training camp opens. He's being undervalued this year because of the injury and also because of some uncertainty over where he will play in the new Jets defense. Most likely, he will continue to man the WLB spot when they use a 4-3 front but will move inside next to Vilma in the 3-4. Regardless, he should be a 3-down linebacker once again and has a realistic chance to finish top-30 once again.

Deep sleeper: CB Justin Miller

Miller is a very talented player who the Jets were fortunate to get in the 2nd round of last year's draft. He has decent size, great speed, and is a very aggressive CB who should compete for a starting job this year. Although David Barrett has been a solid fantasy CB in recent years, he's nothing special as a player and none of the other CBs on the Jets roster have the potential that Miller has. Showed flashes during the playing time he got last year and should show further improvement this year. Can also contribute as a return specialist.


AFC NORTH

Baltimore Ravens

Overvalued: OLB Adalius Thomas

Thomas had a career season in 2005 with 71 solo tackles and nine sacks. While some of his increased production was due to a more favorable defensive scheme, his increased tackle output was very likely the result of an early season injury to Ray Lewis. He'll remain a solid option in most leagues this season, but don't expect another top 20 season.

Undervalued: MLB Ray Lewis

At first glance, marking Ray Lewis as undervalued is silly. But value is a relative term, and a healthy Lewis could well be a lock to put up 100 plus solo tackles and a handful of big plays. Concerns about his age, recent injury history, and surrounding cast have dropped him out of the top ten backers on many draft sheets this summer. Lewis should provide excellent value if he's still available to you after ten linebackers come off the board.

Deep sleeper: S Dawan Landry

A fifth round draft pick this offseason, Landry is a 6'2", 215 lb aggressive, in-the-box run support safety who could be a perfect fit in the Ravens scheme. Landry has only replacement level veterans Gerome Sapp and B.J. Ward to beat out in the competition for the starter's role in 2006. Expect him to win the job by midseason if not much sooner.

Cincinnati Bengals

Overvalued: CB Deltha O'Neal

Don't make the mistake of reaching for O'Neal early this year. Most of his top ten production in 2005 came from his ten interceptions and twenty passes defended. He's never been particularly impressive in run support and is unlikely to be tested frequently this season opposite an aging Tory James or greenhorns Keiwan Ratliff or Jonathan Joseph. Let someone else assume the risk. Honorable mention: MLB Odell Thurman - Careful about paying top dollar for Thurman in redraft leagues. He'll miss the first five weeks of the regular season to a four week substance abuse suspension and the Bengals' bye week. He should return to solid production by midseason, but isn't worth a premium investment in redraft formats.

Undervalued: FS Madieu Williams

Williams may be an afterthought in some leagues after a shoulder injury robbed him of much of his sophomore season. Before his injury, Williams was a dual threat as a fantasy defensive back - plenty of tackles in run support and the coverage skills to dent the boxscores with picks and passes defended. His role may change some with the addition of Dexter Jackson this offseason, but he still be around the ball frequently and will likely outperform his current ADP. Honorable mention: LB Brian Simmons - Simmons is in line to benefit the most from Thurman's suspension. Simmons is a solid veteran who has some experience playing the middle and a knack for making the big play. He'll be a solid play for the first month of the season.

Deep sleeper: LB Ahmad Brooks

Brooks fell out of favor in 2005 after a number of off-field issues and ballooning to near 300 pounds before slimming down for his pre-supplemental draft workouts. However, Brooks was an absolute stud at UVA in 2004, a 260 pound phenom with a freakish combination of size and speed at ILB. It isn't clear how the Bengals plan to use him in their future plans, but if he regains his earlier form he could become a fantasy stud. If he proves himself in training camp, it's not inconceivable that he could win the MLB role and never give it back.

Cleveland Browns

Overvalued: DE Orpheus Roye

Roye had a career season in 2005 with 65 solo tackles and 5 sacks. Roye is a perfect fit as a 3-4 defensive end, but isn't a good bet to repeat that tackle production, especially as the Browns' team defense improves. He will still be worth rostering in 2005, but is a longshot to finish in the top twelve again. Honorable mention: OLB Willie McGinest/Kamerion Wimbley - Unless you play in a league that rewards sacks more highly than tackles, neither OLB in Cleveland will be worth starting.

Undervalued: S Brodney Pool

Pool moves into a starting role this season alongside solid, but unspectacular veteran Brian Russell. He is every bit as talented as Nick Collins and Josh Bullocks, two other safeties from last season's draft class who put up very good numbers as rookies. Now that he has the opportunity, Pool should put up similar numbers and will probably be available much later in your drafts.

Deep sleeper: LB D'Qwell Jackson

Jackson will start out in the less productive RILB role in Romeo Crennel's hybrid 3-4 defense, but could provide some big plays while he learns the system. Should anything happen to Andra Davis or the team decides Jackson is the better fit at LILB, Jackson has unlimited potential. Honorable mention: S Sean Jones - Although he's not been able to crack the lineup (recovering from a knee injury, learning the playbook) in two seasons, Jones could still unseat Brian Russell and bump Brodney Pool to free safety. Jones could have sneaky good value in the strong safety position.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Overvalued: SS Troy Polamalu

Polamalu is being ranked by many as one of the top 2 or 3 fantasy DBs this year, but he only finished last season ranked 16th. He's an excellent player and a huge part of the Steelers defense, but his production can be pretty inconsistent. There were 6 weeks last year in which he finished with 4.5 or fewer fantasy points and his 3 sacks all came in week 2 vs Houston. In order to come close to living up to where he is being valued, he'll need to dramatically improve his tackle numbers and get back to the 5 interception level that he reached in 2004. Polamalu is one of the few defensive players around the league that offenses actually try to scheme around, which limits his upside.

Undervalued: CB Ike Taylor

Taylor put up numbers very similar to Polamalu last year, but his value these days is much lower simply because of the fact that he plays CB instead of SS. His numbers faded a bit in the second half of the season but he clearly emerged as the #1 CB for the Steelers and had 3 games with 9 or more solo tackles. Steelers CBs have a history of being good fantasy producers because they play a lot of zone defense in the 3-4 and get plenty of chances to support against the run. Taylor finished as a top-20 CB last year despite only collecting 1 interception. If he improves in that area, he actually has a chance to outproduce Polamalu at a fraction of the price.

Deep Sleeper: FS Anthony Smith

Smith was a 3rd round pick of the Steelers, but they have high expectations for him. He's a smart player who will get a chance to compete for the FS spot that was vacated by Chris Hope. Ryan Clark is the projected starter and is a good all-around safety, but Smith is probably the future of the position. While playing FS last year, Hope finished as the #25 ranked fantasy DB. Smith won't reach that level this year, but he could be a nice pickup late in the season or a guy to stash on your dynasty roster for later. Polamalu is so good in coverage that he doesn't always play up in the box like a typical SS, which creates more run stopping opportunities for the FS in Pittsburgh.


AFC SOUTH

Houston Texans

Overvalued: LB Sam Cowart

Sam Cowart is a fine player and if he can remain healthy, he could put up some solid numbers for the Texans this year. The problem is, injuries have always followed Cowart and in recent mini-camps, minor injuries prevented Cowart from getting the time on the field one might think is necessary to hold onto the starting job in a new environment. Waiting in the wings is not only veterans Wali Rainier and Kailee Wong (himself also rehabbing from injury) but rookie high draft pick DeMeco Ryans. With Cowart's increasing age and inability to stay healthy, he might be overvalued in some drafts.

Undervalued: LB Morlon Greenwood

The general feeling out there seems to be that Morlon Greenwood will not be the starter opening day, let alone the entire season. He is not the fastest or most skilled player and younger players such as rookie DeMeco Ryans best Greenwood in those areas, including abilities as a playmaker. But Greenwood should not be overlooked. He's a student of the game and has a tremendous work ethic. He's going back to his more natural position this year as a weakside linebacker in a 4-3 defense. And he's coming off a career year as a top 30 LB. Ryans is his only challenge as a starter, and while Ryans is very capable, he's still just a rookie and he also might play in the middle. Keep close tabs on this one as camps bear out, but Greenwood could be a steal.

Deep sleeper: SS Glenn Earl

Glenn Earl's biggest problem has been staying on the field. He's missed ten games in his first two NFL seasons with varying knee, shoulder and hip injuries. But when he's healthy, Earl has shown the skills to be a top producer. This has been his first offseason where he's been able to take part in all of the camps healthy. He's got the size and mentality to excel in run support and his speed and quickness make him more than capable in coverage. He's a physical player who reads the plays well. If Earl can stay on the field, he could surprise many with his numbers.

Indianapolis Colts

Overvalued: S Bob Sanders

There's a lot to like about Bob Sanders, as the third year player excels in run support and hits like a truck. He made the pro bowl last year. But far too many people have Sanders rated near the top and to this point he has not proven enough to be up there. In just over a year's worth of NFL games, Sanders still does not have a sack and he only has one interception and one forced fumble. And while he's capable of big tackle numbers, he sometimes disappears from games and had four or less tackles in six games in 2005. In order to reach that next step, he needs to make more plays on the field. Until then, he might be close to top 30 than top 15.

Undervalued: DE Robert Mathis

Although Mathis is getting increased attention by many in the IDP community, he still remains underrated. He has 22 sacks in his last 24 games and was a top ten defensive linemen in most IDP leagues last year. He had 56 total tackles in just 13 games last year and expanding his numbers to 16 games would have made him the top-scoring lineman. With a league-high eight forced fumbles, Mathis established himself as a top playmaker. Because of this, the Colts are now making him a starter and have declared that he'll be on the field much more frequently in 2006. With Dwight Freeney opposite him, teams can't concentrate on Mathis. With Mathis on the field more, expect more tackles and more fantasy points. If he can stay healthy (a high order for the undersized and oft-injured Mathis), there's no reason he won't increase his numbers from last year and at the very least duplicate them.

Deep sleeper: CB Marlin Jackson

Marlin Jackson is a very talented player who was drafted in the first round in 2005. At this very moment, Jackson remains a backup. But he is far too talented to not see a bigger piece of the pie this season. He had a solid rookie season with 43/15 tackles and an interception. At one time, it was thought he would move to safety and possibly supplant Mike Doss, but recent news from Indy suggests that this won't happen anytime soon. Regardless, Jackson will see an increase in playing time and could beat out either the veteran Nick Harper or overachieving, diminutive Jason David. Jackson is a physical player who brings the kind of size and strength at corner missing in recent years. The Indy cover two defense has allowed their corners to contribute and one who plays as well as Jackson in run support could put up some very nice numbers.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Overvalued: DE Reggie Hayward

Reggie Hayward was a free agent signee by the Jaguars last season, coming off two solid seasons at Denver as a pass-rushing specialist. But Hayward was a bit of a disappointment last year, especially to his IDP owners, as, despite increased playing time, his tackle and sack numbers dropped off considerably. Hayward is a liability against the run and could see less time on non-passing downs because of it. Bigger offensive linemen manhandle him. Too many IDP owners are entranced by his pass-rushing skills and value him too greatly.

Undervalued: CB Rashean Mathis

Rashean Mathis, at 25 years old, is coming into his own as a Jaguar cornerback. He's started every game of his NFL career and makes plays all over the field. With ten interceptions in the last two years, Mathis excels while the ball is in the air and has great hands. He's also an excellent tackler in run support. In leagues that must start a CB, he should be considered as # 1 quality. He has excellent size for the position and has virtually no danger of losing his starting job.

Deep sleeper: LB Clint Ingram

Most of the talk about the linebacking opening after Akin Ayodele's departure has been on veteran Nick Griesen and Pat Thomas, but don't be too shocked if rookie Clint Ingram comes in and steals the job. Ingram, drafted in the third round, is a great athlete with the kind of speed and playmaking abilities to make an immediate impact. Jack Del Rio is not afraid to start a rookie, so the situation merits close scrutiny when training camps kick into gear.

Tennessee Titans

Overvalued: DE Kyle Vanden Bosch

There's a lot to like about Kyle Vanden Bosch, especially after his breakout season of 2005. He was highly touted coming out of college but injuries kept him out of almost half of his first two seasons. Even when healthy, Vanden Bosch rarely got to the QB. Were his 12.5 sacks last year a fluke, or should we expect more of the same this year? A little of both, but I think opponents will be better prepared to combat Vanden Bosch this year and he will see earlier double teams. We witnessed this to some extent as he did not record a sack in his last three games. He's also recovering from offseason shoulder surgery. Look for decreased sack numbers for Vanden Bosch in 2006.

Undervalued: DE Travis LaBoy

With opponents worrying more about Kyle Vanden Bosch this season, it could mean a breakout of sorts for Travis LaBoy. A second round pick in 2004, LaBoy has progressed nicely. He had 6.5 sacks last year and more importantly showed the ability to play against the run in the second half of the season. He's already been anointed the starter, something that did not happen in previous offseasons, and the team believes he can be a three down player. It's within reason for LaBoy to get double-digit sacks and become a top 25 DL.

Deep sleeper: LB Stephen Tulloch

Tulloch was a fourth round pick in this year's draft and his speed and tackling skills make him an ideal fit for the MLB spot. He has great instincts and understands the game. Peter Sirmon is currently on top the depth chart, but he has rarely played in the middle and at first requested a trade when the team acquired David Thornton. Also, Sirmon is scheduled to make $2.4 million as his base salary this year. If Tulloch plays well in camp, they might promote him. And if they are any injuries elsewhere at LB, they'll likely move Sirmon to the outside and start Tulloch in the middle. Although the team does not want to rush Tulloch, they are very high on him. Keep your eyes on this one.


AFC WEST

Denver Broncos

Overvalued: CB Champ Bailey

Bailey had a career season last year, totaling eight interceptions, 23 passes defended, and two touchdowns. He's highly unlikely to repeat those numbers and was never more than a marginal roster candidate in the three seasons before 2005. Let someone else take the risk that Bailey won't slide back into fantasy obscurity in 2006.

Undervalued: WLB Ian Gold

In his last two healthy seasons as a Bronco (2002 and 2005), Gold has produced LB3 or better quality numbers. He's routinely available at the back end of drafts. He's the best nickel backer the Broncos have, so he'll retain excellent value as depth in all leagues.

Deep sleeper: DE Elvis Dumervil

A lot of things will have to break right for Dumervil to have any real fantasy value. But it's always worth having a guy who totaled 20 sacks, 10 forced fumbles, and multiple college defensive awards on your radar. There are no reliable pass rushers on the Denver roster and it is possible that Dumervil could have an impact if he and the coaching staff find a creative way to use his pass rushing skills.

Kansas City Chiefs

Overvalued: SS Sammy Knight

Depending on your league, Knight could be way overvalued or somewhat undervalued. The current speculation is that Knight may lose his starting SS job to rookie Bernard Pollard early this season. But there's been no official confirmation of that yet. If Knight is available late into your draft, he still represents good value. But with the depth at defensive back this season, he's not a good gamble. If he loses the job, he's unlikely to get it back and he's unlikely to end up in anywhere close to as nice a situation as his current one.

Undervalued: SS Bernard Pollard

As noted above, Pollard seems to be close to overtaking Sammy Knight sooner than expected. The Kansas City strong safety position has been one of the most productive fantasy spots at defensive back over recent years, and should be no different under Herm Edwards. Pollard is almost certainly available deep into most drafts and has a skill set very similar to Knight's. He has stud potential if and when he earns a starting role. Honorable mention: DE Tamba Hali - Incumbent veteran DE Eric Hicks was struggling with injuries during spring camps and hasn't been particularly effective in recent years. Meanwhile, Hali was already earning high marks for how quickly he was translating his all-around potential to the pro game. If Hali can claw his way into a full-time role opposite Jared Allen, he could become a fantasy option very quickly.

Deep sleeper: LB Keyaron Fox

Not many deep sleeper options in Kansas City. Fox is a big reach, but the third year linebacker has shown significant improvement this offseason and could step into the WLB role at some point if Kendrell Bell can't recover his old form.

Oakland Raiders

Overvalued: LB Danny Clark

Despite two solid statistical seasons in the middle of the Raider defense, Clark is little more than a replacement level talent. The Raiders apparently feel the same and released a pre-camp depth chart suggesting that Clark would be benched in favor of WLB-hopeful Thomas Howard (with Kirk Morrison moving to the middle). Should that projection hold, Clark has very little value in both the short and long term.

Undervalued: LB Kirk Morrison

Morrison performed above expectations last season as a rookie WLB. Knocked for a lack of big play ability, Morrison could stick at the more productive MLB role if Thomas Howard can establish himself on the weakside during training camp. He'd be a near lock for 100 plus solo tackles in that role and bring LB1 value from a LB2 draft slot. Honorable mention: LB Thomas Howard - The raw, but talented Howard is being handed the starting WLB job entering camp. If he can hold on, he should have good value as a three down backer.

Deep sleeper: S Michael Huff

Huff could be a Rodney Harrison type impact performer at safety. He hasn't the cover skills of an cornerback and the size and hitting ability of a stud safety. He'll have to beat out Derrick Gibson to win the SS job, but Gibson hasn't exactly proven himself durable or above replacement level talent in the past. Expect Huff to enter the season as the starter and produce very nice numbers.

San Diego Chargers

Overvalued: SS Terrence Kiel

Kiel appears to be on the verge of losing his starting job in the Charger secondary. Kiel looked to have regressed last year, as he struggled to wrap up ballcarriers in run support and was often ineffective in deep coverage. Whether that was due to an ankle injury suffered early in the season remains to be seen. For now, Clinton Hart looks to have the inside track on the SS role. Don't sleep on Kiel altogether, but he's certainly not worth a big investment unless he's the clear starter.

Undervalued: DE Luis Castillo

Overshadowed by the breakout of Shawne Merriman, Castillo was just as impressive over the second half of 2005. While it is rare for a 3-4 end to have much fantasy value, Castillo may be an exception to the rule. He is certainly worth drafting as a flyer in the late rounds of most leagues. Honorable mention: SS Clinton Hart - Hart is the early favorite to grab the SS job in San Diego. He wasn't particularly effective last season, but any starting strong safety is worthy of consideration.

Deep sleeper: LB Stephen Cooper

Cooper, an undrafted college free agent, was tendered at the highest level as a RFA this offseason after ably filling in for an injured Randall Godfrey briefly last season. He looks to be the primary backup at both ILB spots, and with both Godfrey and Donnie Edwards on their way out in San Diego, Cooper could become the man in San Diego. Honorable mention: LB Tim Dobbins - The Chargers also like fifth round draftee Dobbins. He needs some seasoning, but could also play a major role in the Chargers' future plans at inside linebacker.


NFC EAST

Dallas Cowboys

Overvalued: SS Roy Williams

Roy Williams has failed to live up to expectations ever since his magical rookie season in 2002, when he finished as the #2 defensive back. He rebounded quite a bit in 2005, finishing 13th after two very disappointing years, but there are still too many questions regarding his role in the Cowboys defense to anoint him once again as a fantasy superstar. I've optimistically projected with numbers that place him near the top 12 but he will undoubtedly be drafted higher when he could just as easily produce in the 30-50 range.

Undervalued: CBs Terence Newman/Anthony Henry

Cornerbacks are often overlooked in fantasy because of the perception that they are inconsistent in terms of production (compared to safeties) and tend to post sub-par solo tackle numbers, especially those who are considered good cover corners. In the case of Terence Newman and Anthony Henry we have one of the leagues top cornerback tandems who have also proven to be fantasy forces. Each of these guys should post around 60 solo tackles with four interceptions and 15+ passes defended, providing great late round value in your draft. While others are sitting there trying to decide between lower tier safeties Ryan Clark and Deon Grant, "turn the corner" and don't look back.

Deep sleeper: FS Pat Watkins

A rookie fifth round pick, Watkins value this year will likely be as a special teamer, but he has the speed and coverage ability that the Cowboys are looking for in their free-safety. With Keith Davis' recent shooting incident and Marcus Coleman's age, Watkins just may find his way into the starting lineup at some point this season.

New York Giants

Overvalued: WLB Carlos Emmons

A strongside linebacker for most of his career, Carlos Emmons slid over to the weakside last year because of injuries/lack of depth. This was his chance to shine, an opportunity to show that his lack of production over the years was more a product of the restrictive SLB position than an indication of his ability. Unfortunately, not much changed as his numbers remained close to his career averages at under four solo tackles per game with limited playmaking. Bottom line is that he's just not a fantasy force. Don't let the "Starting WLB" designation fool you because he doesn't perform as well as you'd expect from a weakside linebacker (especially in Tim Lewis' defense) and at some point this year he may not even be starting.

Undervalued: CB Corey Webster

Webster will go undrafted in most leagues this year because he's a second year cornerback who started just three games as a rookie, but if you look closer you'll see that this kid has some serious potential. His play a year ago, combined with financial/health decisions made on Will Allen/Will Peterson, earned Webster a starting job entering 2006. He's considered to have superb overall ball skills and if last years audition is an indication of what's to come, he has the ability to put up tackle numbers in the Champ Bailey/Terence Newman mold (Webster averaged 7 solo tackles per start). With Sam Madison brought in to man the other side Webster could be a marked man, which would increase his fantasy potential.

Deep sleeper: WLB Gerris Wilkinson

The New York Giants learned a year ago how valuable depth is at the linebacker position…when they had none. Wilkinson was brought in as a third round pick to provide depth and to hopefully develop into the WLB of the future. If Wilkinson is able to put together an impressive training camp, the future just may be now. Carlos Emmons should enter camp fighting for both his job and possibly a roster spot with both Wilkinson and Reggie Torbor eyeing his gig. Smart money should be on Emmons retaining the starting WLB spot for one more year, but this situation will wash out during training camp which makes Gerris Wilkinson a player deserving of watchful eye.

Philadelphia Eagles

Overvalued: DE Jevon Kearse

I don't like putting Jevon Kearse on this list because he appears to be in a good situation this year with Darren Howard coming to Philadelphia, but appearance is all that Kearse has been living on over the last four years with a combined total of 95 solo tackles and 26.5 sacks. Though he's never been able to live up to his rookie performance, the name brand alone continues to keep him drafted higher than he should be.

Undervalued: FS Brian Dawkins

Brian Dawkins will undoubtedly be discounted this year because of his age (he turns 33 in October), but the fact is that he's giving us the best football of his career and appears to be getting better. He finished last year as the #4 overall defensive back but has and ADP/ranking near #10, behind such big name youngsters as Ed Reed, Troy Polamalu and Roy Williams, all of whom I expect Dawkins to outproduce. Age will definitely catch up to him at some point and he deserves to be discredited in dynasty leagues, but for redraft we run the risk of knocking him down for what may happen while overlooking what's actually occurring on the field.

Deep sleeper: DT Mike Patterson

As a rookie defensive tackle in 2005, Mike Patterson took over the starting job from Hollis Thomas during the seasons final month and produced 24 solo tackles, 2 sacks and a forced fumble in seven total starts. Over a full 16 game set those numbers equate to 55 solo tackles and 4.5 sacks, nothing earth-shattering but far from a player who appears to have been forgotten about with the drafting of Broderick Bunkley. Whether or not Bunkley wiggles his way into the starting lineup shouldn't affect Patterson too much as Bunkley would be replacing Darwin Walker, but it may actually help having the man beast lining up beside him to help relieve the pressure that will come from being a rising star.

Washington Redskins

Overvalued: FS Sean Taylor

In two NFL seasons Sean Taylor has given us flashes of brilliance while building a reputation as one of the games most gifted athletes. Unfortunately he hasn't built a statline to match. Legal woes aside, Taylor's production during his first two years leaves him in the DB 30-40 range, approximately 10% from being a top 10 defensive back and 10% the other way from not being worth a roster spot. Drafted accordingly, Taylor has tremendous upside given his talent, but the name brand here will have him drafted much higher than he should, removing any value that he possesses.

Undervalued: MLB Lemar Marshall

Lemar Marshall has performed admirably as a "fill-in" type player over the last two years and if he doesn't watch out, he just may become the star who he's been filling in for. Two years ago he stepped in for an injured Lavar Arrington at WLB and last year, with Antonio Pierce leaving for New York as a free-agent, Marshall slid inside and had his own breakout year with 77 solo tackles, 2 sacks and four interceptions. Now a fixture at MLB for the Redskins, Marshall's ability to fill up a boxscore in Gregg Williams' defense should land him near the top 20 for LBs.

Deep sleeper: DT Cornelius Griffin

Cornelius Griffin had a breakout season in 2004 with 55 solo tackles and six sacks, providing great value as both a DT and a DL. He was on pace a year ago to better those numbers with 23 solo tackles through five games when he suffered a hip injury that knocked him out of three games and lasted with him throughout the year. A healthy return to the field in 2006 will also bring a new linemate, free-agent addition DE Andre Carter. With the presence of Carter, he and Griffin should be able to play off of each other, helping to free one-another from those pesky double teams that impede their paths to the quarterback. All in all, Griffin should return to form this year and provide great value as a defensive lineman, especially in leagues that separate tackles from ends.


NFC NORTH

Chicago Bears

Overvalued: LB Lance Briggs

Briggs was a top 25 LB last year, but did not match his top 12 standing from 2004. Now, Briggs is mired in a contract dispute with the Bears and he could be in his last year with the team. He's missed some workouts, and the team made a commitment to the other OLB, Hunter Hillenmeyer, who is taking reps in place of Briggs in the nickel package while he is sitting out OTAs. Briggs carries too much risk to merit a selection in the top 25 LBs

Undervalued: DE Adewale Ogunleye

Everything is primed for 'Wale to return to the echelon of premier NFL sack artists in 2006. The fearsome Bears defense is completely intact from 2005, their schedule is actually easier, and their offense can only improve. Ogunleye has a chance to return to the form he displayed in 2004 when he finished #3 among DEs. He's a good DE2 to target in the DE10-15 range in your draft.

Deep sleeper: LB Hunter Hillenmeyer

The Bears have given a new contract to an OLB, but it was Hillenmeyer, not Lance Briggs. He's been working in place of Briggs in the nickel package and could get work at WLB if Briggs holds out or gets demoted. He's also likely first in line to play MLB if Brian Urlacher got hurt. Hillenmeyer is not worth drafting, but remember his name if Briggs or Urlacher go down.

Detroit Lions

Overvalued: LB Teddy Lehman

The promise Lehman showed in his rookie year is becoming a distant memory. Injuries plagued his 2005, and he will not be ready to play when camp opens because of a foot injury. When he does return, the strong side may be the only option open to him because Ernie Sims and Boss Bailey are penciled in to play the weak side and middle. Lehman is probably going to be a fantasy afterthought in 2006.

Undervalued: DE James Hall

Hall was a top 10 DE in 2004 and began returning to that form in late 2005. He racked up 25 total tackles, 3 sacks, and 2 forced fumbles in the last four games of 05. The switch to the cover 2 should give only help with its attacking mentality up front. Hall is a big value once the top 20 DEs are off the board.

Deep sleeper: DE Kalimba Edwards

Kalimba has never lived up to the pass rush beast potential he had coming into the league, but this year could put him in position to top double digit sacks for the first time in his career. The Lions fought off a serious bid from the Browns for his services and the new regime seems excited about Edwards abilities in the cover 2. He's a good DE to watch in leagues that reward sacks heavily.

Green Bay Packers

Overvalued: LB Nick Barnett

Barnett has a lot of factors working against his chances of repeating his top 10 finish among LBs in 2005. A.J. Hawk has been added and should decrease Barnett's tackle opportunities, and rookie Abdul Hodge could win a job in the middle, forcing Barnett to the strong side. He's not worth the risk of a top 15 LB pick. Don't count on him to be any more than your LB2.

Undervalued: S Marquand Manuel

Manuel has the inside track to winning the starting strong safety job in Green Bay. He was signed by Green Bay to a multiyear deal almost as soon as free agency began, and his main competition, Mark Roman, has made noise about wanting a release since Manuel was signed. Manuel should be a decent bench DB despite being on almost no one's radar right now.

Deep sleeper: LB Abdul Hodge

Hodge was a terror in the middle in Iowa and the Packers grabbed him on the first day, showing he's in their plans. He's been getting almost all of his reps inside, which suggests he could move Nick Barnett to the outside if he plays his way into the starting lineup. He could be a borderline startable LB even as a two-down MLB.

Minnesota Vikings

Overvalued: LB Chad Greenway

Greenway will eventually be the starting weakside LB for Vikings, but don't pencil him into your top 36 LBs just yet. He still has to beat out E.J. Henderson to play with the first team, and his coverage skills could cost him some tackle opportunities. Greenway is only worth a pick as a bench LB until he is assured of starting - which may be tied at first to whether Napoleon Harris or E.J. Henderson wins the MLB job.

Undervalued: DT Kevin Williams

Williams entered 2005 as the clear cut #1 DT. He struggled with injuries and a switch to the 3-4 at times. This year, the Vikes have installed the cover 2, which has the defensive line attacking instead of concentrating on holding up blockers. Williams could easily return to double digit sack totals, and he should be a stud in leagues that require a DT in the starting lineup.

Deep sleeper: LB E.J. Henderson

The linebacker corps for Minnesota is a mess right now, but Henderson has arguably had the most NFL success of anyone in the group. Henderson has the added value of being able to play both MLB and WLB. He could beat Napoleon Harris or Chad Greenway out for a valuable starting gig, or at worst be waiting in the wings if they fail or get hurt. He's worth a late round flier in deep leagues.


NFC SOUTH

Atlanta Falcons

Overvalued: LB Demorrio Williams

Sometimes the gamebook line doesn't tell the entire story. Williams, despite his attractive stats, was not very effective in run support and the Falcons will use him in situational hybrid LB/spy role this year. Unless one of the starting linebackers is injured again, Williams will have little value in redraft leagues this year. Honorable mention: LB Ed Hartwell - Hartwell was struggling a bit before an Achilles tendon injury last season. Be careful about reaching for him in the top 25 linebackers.

Undervalued: DB Lawyer Milloy

The free safety in the Falcon scheme designed by Jim Mora, Jr. and Ed Donatell is more of an in-the-box defender than roving centerfielder. Brian Scott (and Darren Sharper a few years ago) put up very good numbers in this role in 2004. Milloy has enough gas in the tank to have some serious late round value.

Deep sleeper: LB Michael Boley

Boley is the reason Demorrio Williams' value has plummeted. Although also undersized, Boley proved to be much better at the point of attack and will man the "buck" or SLB position this year. However, should the LB corps get shuffled around again he could end up in the WLB role. It's a longshot, but if it happens, Boley will have just as much value as Williams did in 2005.

Carolina Panthers

Overvalued: LB Dan Morgan

Every year, it seems that Morgan is drafted among the top 20 linebackers. And every year, Morgan loses entire series and games to injury, leaving his fantasy owners in a lurch, often at playoff time. With the turnover at both OLB spots in the offseason, Morgan may look even more attractive for 2006. Be careful. If you're counting on Morgan to anchor your fantasy roster, make sure you have the depth to weather the weeks he's likely to miss to injury.

Undervalued: SS Shaun Williams

The coaching staff wanted to move Mike Minter to free safety last season, but were forced to play him at strong safety after a preseason knee injury to Colin Branch and the shaky play of then rookie Thomas Davis. This season, Minter will again start out at FS after the departure of Marlon McCree. While Branch is also in the mix for the starting job at SS, the Panthers signed Shaun Williams in the offseason to compete for the role as well. A known commodity to head coach John Fox, Williams could surprise with solid numbers behind a shaky linebacker group.

Deep sleeper: LB James Anderson

The Panthers' third round draft pick in 2006 will compete with a slew of journeymen, replacement level linebackers at WLB. The coaching staff had good things to say about him during mini-camps. Anderson could grow into the role vacated by Will Witherspoon, especially if he can prove a capable option on passing downs. Honorable mention: DE Stanley McClover - McClover left Auburn a year early but dropped to the seventh round in a draft deep in edge rushers. He needs time to develop, but has the potential to become a pass rushing threat in 2007 and beyond.

New Orleans Saints

Overvalued: S Jay Bellamy

Bellamy has been successful in the SS role for the Saints in previous years, but suffered a season-ending shoulder injury last year and will be in a dogfight to make the roster this season. The new Saint coaching staff brought in Bryan Scott and Omar Stoutmire early this offseason, invested a high draft pick on hard hitting Roman Harper, and has already purged a far from washed-up Dwight Smith. Bellamy is next in the crosshairs. Currently, it's Stoutmire who's getting the reps with the first team at strong safety. Even if he eventually works his way into the lineup again, you'll be walking on eggshells wondering if and when he'll be replaced.

Undervalued: MLB Alfred Fincher

Fincher was apparently getting first team snaps in the middle during the most recent minicamp, which is significant since the coaches were trying Colby Bockwoldt, Anthony Simmons, and Scott Fujita at all three positions in early May. Fincher struggled to find a role in last year's league worst defense, but if he earns the starting job he'll produce well over his current ADP. Honorable mention: LB Anthony Simmons - Simmons was a top 15 LB earlier in the decade in Seattle. He was the total package. Aggressive and instinctive, quick to the ball, and a solid pass rusher, Simmons has struggled to recover from a wrist injury he suffered early in 2004. If healthy and motivated, he is easily the best linebacker on the Saint roster and could produce as such.

Deep sleeper: DB Roman Harper

Many felt the Saints reached for Harper in the second round of this year's draft and the team is stocked with options at safety. But the coaching staff was actively turning over the safety position in the offseason and the high draft slot suggests that the team has a plan for Harper. With Josh Bullocks probably a better fit long-term at FS, Harper could step in at SS late in the season. Those in dynasty leagues should definitely have him on their radar.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Overvalued: MLB Shelton Quarles

Quarles had a career season in 2005, racking up 30 more tackles than his next best season. It will be tough for him to repeat that performance against a still talented Derrick Brooks and the possibility that Barrett Ruud begins to cut into his playing time still looms in the background. There are other linebackers in the same ADP tier that may be safer options, particularly in dynasty leagues.

Undervalued: DE Simeon Rice

Rice is dropping in drafts, likely over concerns that he may not be able to match his prior production. Rice is about as durable and consistent as they come, however, and should remain productive this season. He'll provide excellent value as a DL2 in all leagues.

Deep sleeper: SS Donte Nicholson

Current Buc safeties Will Allen and Jermaine Phillips are serviceable but nothing special. Nicholson is a big, physical player who could become an interesting fantasy option if he can improve his coverage skills enough to earn a starting role in the Tampa-2 defense.


NFC WEST

Arizona Cardinals

Overvalued: DT Darnell Dockett

The talent is unquestioned, but he has been more flash and tease in his first two seasons, where his play hasn't measured up to the rep that preceded him (he was Florida State season TFL record holder before broken by 2006 first round DT Broderick Bunkley). The former Seminole great needs to play with a more consistent motor to begin fulfilling his lofty potential and living up to the press clippings. A rebuilt interior OL alongside him (Kendrick Clancy via free agency and talented but similarly uneven Gabe Watson from the draft) along with a healthy Bert Berry could help kick-start his motor.

Undervalued: DE Bertrand Berry

He is still playing at an extremely high level, despite being 31 (as are fellow "geezer" DEs Michael Strahan, Jason Taylor, Simeon Rice and Leonard Little). The former Colt and Bronco situational pass rusher is a late bloomer who has flourished in the desert and doesn't look anything like a player in the twilight of his career. In his last two complete seasons (missed second half of 2005 with a torn pectoral muscle), few DEs can match the 33 big plays (26 sacks & 7 FFs) he amassed in 32 games from '03-'04. He was second in the NFL in sacks in 2004 (behind only Dwight Freeney), and before his midseason injury was pacing last year for a top 3 finish among DEs in FBG scoring. An explosive edge rusher who brings it for 60 minutes.

Deep sleeper: CB Antrel Rolle

Rolle has the imposing size, physical ability, talent and skills to quickly become one of the most dominant CBs in the NFL, and one of the highest scoring DBs in IDP leagues (with the caveat - if his knee is right, which it reportedly is). In fact, based on the admittedly scant but compelling evidence from stellar splits in the midst of an injury-marred rookie season, if his quarter season productivity were sustained over a full season, his production would have translated to top 10 numbers... top 10 LB! Don't reach for him and take Rolle earlier than you have to, but some scouts thought he was the best overall prospect in the entire 2005 draft class, and you could be the beneficiary of the one season delay before his coming out party.

San Francisco 49ers

Overvalued: SS Tony Parrish

At one time he was one of the top playmaking safeties in the NFL (30 career INTs second among active DBs after Darren Sharper's 45), though for much of his career he hasn't exactly been a tackle maven. Even if he returns at close to full strength after a nasty looking spiral leg fracture, the way he is currently used in HC Mike Nolan's scheme will make it difficult for him to produce the upper echelon DB stats his athleticism suggests he might be capable of in more favorable scheme-driven circumstances.

Undervalued: CB Shawntae Spencer

Playing for a last place team is less than optimal from a national recognition standpoint, but make no mistake... Spencer is on the cusp of becoming one of the league's elite young CBs, and with that the accolades should follow. In just his second year, he was in the top 10 for his position in tackles (74) and PD (19) and added 4 INTs and a return TD. A throwback to the SF tradition of greatness blazed by Walsh, Montana, Craig, Rice and Lott based on hard work and indomitable will, Spencer's example points the way to a possible return to greatness in the future for this storied franchise with a tarnished legacy.

Deep sleeper - LB Manny Lawson

To the extent it is possible for a first rounder to be a sleeper, Lawson is a candidate as 3-4 OLBs are almost invariably dissed for their IDP scoring potential. In replacing multi-Pro Bowl OLB Julian Peterson (only NFL player in recent memory to line up at DE, LB, S & CB in same game), who is generally acknowledged to be one of the top athletes in the league along with Julius Peppers (sixth man on a GOOD North Carolina Basketball team), the 49ers have reloaded with another phenomenal athlete. Despite his freakish DE/LB-conversion size, he competed for N.C. State in the hurdles and sprint relay and has long jumped 25' and triple jumped 50'. With his serious hops he is reminiscent of another, old school Julius... Dr. J. Think Charles Haley if he could dunk from the free throw line!

Seattle Seahawks

Overvalued: DE Grant Wistrom

At this point, Wistrom is more valuable to the Seahawks organization for his veteran leadership, motor, hustle, multi-Super Bowl experience and off-field example than for sheer productivity and tangible stats. Intangibles are vastly underrated in real football, but in the fantasy domain, aren't much attraction in and of themselves, and are best accompanied by numbers.

Undervalued: SS Michael Boulware

Had more of an impact in a brilliant rookie campaign and is still adjusting to playing safety in the NFL after being an All-American WLB at Florida State. He is a physical specimen and was the fastest LB prospect at his Combine. Great bloodlines and pedigree, his brother Peter was a Pro Bowl LB for the Ravens. A multitalented playmaker capable of being a big play machine. His tackles were blunted last year, but the return of Ken Hamlin may enable him to be turned loose more. If so, he has top 10 upside among safeties (though maybe not this year).

Deep sleeper: DE Daryl Tapp

There are some intriguing pieces to the puzzle of how the skills he flashed at the collegiate level will translate and project to the NFL. Though he had poor timed speed in the 40, he had an extremely quick 10 yard split and film confirms that he plays much faster than he times. The feisty and pesky former Va. Tech great already has a well developed and fully formed array of pass rush moves (gave consensus #1 OL D'Brickashaw Ferguson fits), is active in run support and also a monster-hitting FF maker. High motor dude with a potent combo of an explosive first step, deceptive power, leverage, long arms, intensity, hustle and football smarts could make a surprisingly big contribution early, and groomed to be Wistrom's eventual successor. Remember another second round gem unearthed by SEA scouts and front office supposedly too small and slow that turned out pretty well... Lofa Tatupu.

St. Louis Rams

Overvalued: CB Jerametrius Butler

Looked like an ascendant player in 2004 when he finished as a top 10 DB, before blowing out his ACL last offseason. A lot has changed since then. New DC Jim Haslett brought in Fakhir Brown from New Orleans and the Rams war room made speed merchant Tye Hill the team's first round selection. Hill should be at least the nickel CB this season, but the presence of the above two could mean that Butler may not be as much of a lock to start as is commonly thought (including beyond 2006 for dynasty purposes). Due to a hamstring pull he couldn't participate in OTA drills, so even team insiders are still in the dark about how his knee will respond once the bullets start to fly for real.

Undervalued: LB Pisa Tinoisamoa

During an extremely promising rookie season, he led STL in tackles and was one of the few defensive players in the NFL with multiple sacks (2), INTs (3) & FFs (4), despite playing SLB. He also led the team in tackles the following two years, though he struggled with a chronic separated shoulder as a soph, and was saddled with an incompetent scheme in '04-'05. He is entrenched at WLB, the shoulder problem was corrected and he and prized free agent acquisition Will Witherspoon will be key players in the retooled, more aggressive new scheme. The 2006 season is even further incentivized for the former San Diego prep legend and Hawaii star by being a contract year. Honorable Mention: DE Leonard Little - Represents a nice confluence of talent (top 5 among DEs from '01-'03), focus (in past two years he was first distracted by legal entanglements, then his brother was murdered), a more aggressive scheme (tough guy and hard case Haslett replaces meek and incompetent Marmie at DC) as well as greater opportunity (he will be moved around and play RDE more, where his sacks could increase). Like similarly intense 5-0 above, Little has the added motivation of a contract year, in what will likely be his last chance for a big pay day (turns 32 in season).

Deep sleeper: DT Claude Wroten

A top 20 overall talent in the 2006 draft if he hadn't fallen due to off field issues. New Rams HC Scott Linehan received some insider insight imparted by ex-MIA boss Nick Saban (Wroten's former HC at LSU), who was of the opinion that it was out of character. He has been called the top 3-technique DT in the draft by independent scout Mike Mayock and has the total package to be a two way threat as a run stuffer and rare pass rush threat from the inside. If Wroten is as good as advertised he has a chance to emerge quickly as one of the better young DTs in the game, help transform the Rams toughness up the middle, make them stouter against the run and more dangerous pressuring the QB, and will be a vindication for the legacy of first round DTs that crashed and burned in recent seasons (along with their former Super Bowl expectations).

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