Week 9 Upgrades/Downgradesby David Dodds and Clayton Gray, Exclusive to
Footballguys.com
Upgrades
QB Drew Brees, NO - In his last two games, Brees has 658 passing yards and six TDs. He is playing like he has been in this offense for years.
QB Marc Bulger, STL - He continues to put up huge stats each week. He had 327 passing yards and 2 TDs while throwing no interceptions. Through 7 games, he has posted 1,946 passing yards, 12 TDs and just 1 interception.
QB Rex Grossman, CHI - Grossman responded well after his bad play against Arizona two weeks ago. The bye week (and a soft defense) got his game back on track. With a defense constantly giving him the short field, he should have plenty of scoring opportunities each week. He finished the day with 252 passing yards and 3 TDs while throwing no interceptions.
QB Damon Huard, KC - He threw for another 300+ yards and is making a strong case just to remain the starter. The team is 4-2 under Huard and playing very well right now.
QB Peyton Manning, IND - The Broncos were suppose to be a very tough matchup. But with Manning at the helm anything is possible. He played a mistake-free game completing 32 of 39 passes for 345 yards and 3 TDs.
QB Steve McNair, BAL - He threw for 2 TDs and ran for another on Sunday. The Ravens defense causes a lot of havoc (and turnovers) which allows McNair extra chances. His big game this week halts any potential controversy with Kyle Boller moving forward.
QB Tony Romo, DAL - He passed his test with flying colors. Romo does give this offense the best chance to succeed. He is able to buy some extra time and that makes Owens and Witten much more valuable. Against a solid Carolina defense, Romo looked sharp. He finished the game with 270 passing yards, a TD and the win.
QB Sage Rosenfels, HOU - He came in for an ineffective David Carr and looked fantastic. He finished the day 18 for 25 for 186 yards and 3 TDs. We do not expect him to replace Carr at this point but stranger things have happened.
QB Michael Vick, ATL - It's all coming together for Vick. He is throwing with a lot more touch on a lot of balls (making his passes more catchable). He is still a huge running threat, but he is also showing great pocket presence. His receivers are also catching everything they were dropping earlier in the year. Vick finished the day completing 20 of 28 passes for 291 yards and 3 TDs. He also added 55 yards rushing and led his team to another win.
QB Seneca Wallace, SEA - He showed a lot of poise for a backup. He finished the day with 198 passing yards and 3 TDs, but did throw two picks. With Shaun Alexander out at least another week, Wallace will be asked to throw often to keep the games close.
RB Joseph Addai, IND - It's clear that he is the better option over Dominic Rhodes. He got 17 carries to Rhodes' three and gained an impressive 93 yards on those attempts.
RB Marion Barber III, DAL - He has 6 TDs in 7 games. If Julius Jones were to get injured, Barber would catapult in value. He has a nose for the endzone and could see additional playing time down the stretch.
RB Mike Bell, DEN - Tatum Bell could not cut like he wanted to and Mike Bell was more than happy to pick up the slack. Mike Bell responded with a huge performance (15 carries for 136 yards and 2 TDs). Although nothing has been officially stated, we think at worst Mike Bell gets more carries. At best he replaces Tatum as the starting back.
RB Reuben Droughns, CLE - With a new offensive coordinator is the promise to run the ball more. Droughns benefited from the increased runs posting 125 yards and a score on 33 carries. Even behind in the game, Cleveland continued to run the ball. Some of that was due to the wind conditions, but much had to do with the revised gameplan for the Browns.
RB Frank Gore, SF - He only had 12 carries since the team got way behind. But even with those limited carries, Gore managed 111 yards against the tough Chicago defense. Against softer defenses Gore should continue to shine.
RB Ahman Green, GB - Talk about rediscovering your youth. Green gets the upgrade with a great performance and could also benefit with Morency's injury. He finished the day with 133 combined yards and 2 TDs.
RB Larry Johnson, KC - The offensive line play has improved a lot and it shows up in Johnson's numbers. A back that knows one speed (full speed ahead) Johnson defines the term power-rushing. He bowled over a tough Seattle defense and posted four TDs (three rushing and one receiving). He is back!
RB Maurice Jones-Drew, JAX - Fred Taylor hurt his hamstring which could vault Jones-Drew to a lot more playing time. He gained 77 yards on his 21 carries yesterday as the Jaguars committed strongly to running the ball.
RB Jamal Lewis, BAL - His yards per carry was still bad, but he posted 109 yards on a season high 31 carries this week. The Ravens look to be winning a lot of games and could continue to use Lewis like this going forward. Even with a low ypc, if you get 31 carries, you will post decent fantasy numbers.
RB Wali Lundy, HOU - Samkon Gado was a healthy inactive as the Texans rode Wali Lundy this week. He finished with 116 on the ground and added another 33 on receptions. Ron Dayne was his usual horrible self. Lundy seems to have entrenched himself into the starting RB role.
RB LaDainian Tomlinson, SD - Hard to upgrade the best RB, but he continues to put on a show every week. He gained 183 yards on just 25 carries (7.32 yards per carry) while rushing for 2 TDs and catching another.
WR Isaac Bruce, STL - Bruce recorded his second 100-yard game in week eight as he beat the Chargers for 105 yards on five catches. While Torry Holt is still the obvious WR1 in the offense, Bruce has been targeted 15 times in the last two games. With Holt garnering the attention of opposing defenses, Bruce should be able to produce quality numbers for the remainder of the season.
WR Plaxico Burress, NYG - Burress was excellent in windy conditions against the Buccaneers. He was targeted 11 times and caught seven balls for 86 yards and a TD. Considering the 40 MPH gusts blowing around, those numbers are fantastic.
WR Marques Colston, NO - Colston continues to put up huge numbers. Of course his two TDs against the Ravens were scored after New Orleans fell behind 35-7, but those still count. Colston currently ranks fourth among fantasy WRs with 577 yards and six TDs and is obviously an every-week starter.
WR Joe Horn, NO - Horn is being out-produced by Marques Colston, but both players are excellent fantasy options. While Colston is in the top five among fantasy WRs, Horn’s 507 yards and three TDs put him in the top 20. The Saints passing game is good enough to support both WRs all season long.
WR Michael Jenkins, ATL - Jenkins has become a goalline threat in the new seemingly pass-happy Falcons’ offense. He has a TD in each of the last two games and seems to be the guy Michael Vick looks to if Alge Crumpler isn’t open.
WR Matt Jones, JAX - Jones’ two catches for 32 yards do not inspire, but it is nice to simply see him back on the field. If he can be 100% against Tennessee and Houston, his stats should look nice.
WR Eddie Kennison, KC - After a very uninspiring six games, Kennison finally broke the 100-yard barrier against Seattle. It looks like Damon Huard is turning the corner and becoming capable of leading the offense, and Trent Green should be available soon as well. Either QB should be able to supply Kennison with enough opportunities to produce solid numbers. The Chiefs’ offense has a nice matchup this week against the Rams.
WR Terrell Owens, DAL - Owens seems to be clicking nicely with Tony Romo behind center and has become a huge part of the Dallas passing game in the last two games. Over the last three halves of football (the time that Romo has played), Owens has been targeted 23 times and has 13 catches for 157 yards and a TD.
WR Jerry Porter, OAK - Porter has only one catch this season, but he gets the obvious upgrade since he is actually getting to play. After spending the first six games either officially suspended or simply inactive, Porter got on the field against the Steelers.
WR Reggie Wayne, IND - The Colts’ offense is on fire right now, and Wayne is obviously a big part of that. Wayne had a huge day against a very good Broncos’ defense as he and Peyton Manning connected for three TDs. Over the last three weeks, Wayne has 20 catches on 29 targets for 284 yards and five scores.
TE Desmond Clark, CHI - Now that he’s healthy again, Clark has been an active target in Chicago’s last two games. Against Arizona and San Francisco, Clark has been targeted 17 times. He has caught ten balls for 147 yards and a pair of TDs.
TE Owen Daniels, HOU - We’ve liked Daniels’ ability around the goalline, but he exploded for a big game against the Titans. Daniels had nine receptions on 11 targets for 99 yards and two TDs. Daniels now has five scores this season.
TE Tony Gonzalez, KC - Gonzalez and Damon Huard have clicked for two consecutive games now. After catching six for 138 against the Chargers, Gonzalez beat the Seahawks for six more catches and 116 yards. We want him to find the endzone more often (only one score this season), but it is very encouraging to see how involved he is in the offense.
TE Tony Scheffler, DEN - It’s hard to get excited about someone coming off a four-catch, 51-yard effort, but week eight was huge for Scheffler. It was easily his best game of the season (he had totaled two catches for 16 yards in the six prior games). Scheffler may have some worth this season after all.
TE Jerramy Stevens, SEA - It appears that Stevens is indeed healthy again. He not only caught his first pass of the season against the Chiefs but also found the endzone. With Bobby Engram struggling with his health and Nate Burleson being a disappointment, Stevens obviously has a role in the Seattle offense.
TE Jason Witten, DAL - Witten is working well with Tony Romo. The two games that Romo has played are Witten’s two best games of the season. In Romo’s three halves of football, Witten has 10 receptions on 14 targets for 152 yards and a TD.
PK Jason Hanson, DET - The Lions’ offense has looked good this season and the schedule is looking nice for Hanson. Week nine against the Falcons is an OK matchup, but the next three opponents (San Francisco, Arizona, and Miami) have been very good to opposing PKs.
PK Nate Kaeding, SD - Kaeding has been on fire lately and has 29 points in his last three games. The credit can go to the Chargers offense as Kaeding has kicked 14 PATs to go with five FGs. Even better news for Kaeding is that he doesn’t face another tough PK matchup over the remainder of the season.
PK Mike Vanderjagt, DAL - Vanderjagt has been decent lately, but there are a couple of reasons to like him in the near future: 1) His next two opponents (Washington and Arizona) have been extremely kind to opposing PKs, and 2) The Dallas offense looks more potent with Tony Romo at the helm.
PK Adam Vinatieri, IND - Robbie Gould still leads all PKs in total points this season (with 83), but Vinatieri leads in points per game (with 13.25…which would extrapolate to 93.75 points).
TD New York Giants, NYG - The Giants have really blown up opposing QBs lately and have 15 sacks over the last three games. They also have recorded a safety, forced seven turnovers and allowed only 13 points per game in that span.
TD Oakland Raiders, OAK - Lost in the muck that is the terrible Oakland offense is a very good Oakland defense. Not only did they defeat Pittsburgh on their own, but the Raiders’ defense has a safety, ten QB sacks, seven forced turnovers and 35 points allowed in their last three games. Those are great numbers in any scoring system.
Downgrades
QB Drew Bledsoe, DAL - Stick a fork in him. He's done. With Romo playing well, we don't see Bledsoe getting back on the field (unless by injury).
QB David Carr, HOU - He was pulled after an ineffective start. His replacement (Sage Rosenfels played well to at least spark some controversy talk. We think Carr will remain the starter for now, but the leash is much shorter.
QB Trent Green, KC - He is getting healthy, but Huard is playing well. He may not get a chance to start again this season. And even if he gets a chance, he will likely have a short-leash because of the paly of Huard.
QB Matt Leinart, ARI - After looking great against Chicago, he has had two stinkers in a row. This week against a soft Green Bay pass defense can not be overlooked. With the team essentially out of the playoffs already, he will continue to get reps but is too inconsistent to play on Sundays.
QB Ben Roethlisberger, PIT - His mistakes continue to hurt this team. He finished with 301 yards, but also threw four picks. And the most important stat was the Steelers again lost the game.
RB Tatum Bell, DEN - He complained about the pounding all of these carries are doing to his body. He couldn't cut like he wanted to and let Mike Bell take some carries. Well Mike Bell exploded with a huge game. We think it's very possible that Tatum will become the change of pace (12-15 carry guy) going forward.
RB Reggie Bush, NO - He had his worst game at any level and hurt his ankle to boot. Although we expect Bush will likely have a huge game before the end of the year, he is far too inconsistent to play in non-point per reception leagues. He fumbled and threw a pick and managed just 21 combined rushing and receiving yards.
RB Warrick Dunn, ATL - We thought he could be great without Duckett around to vulture TDs. The Falcons are passing more as of late and also including rookie Jerious Norwood more. Vick also vultures a lot of goal TDs with his feet. Add it all up and Dunn is having a good year, but below our expectations.
RB Noah Herron, GB - He is an after-thought with Ahman Green playing well.
RB LaMont Jordan, OAK - His back is still hurting him and he is now entrenched in a RBBC that includes Justin Fargas and Zack Crockett. His value is low and doesn't look to improve anytime soon.
RB Maurice Morris, SEA - Squandered another opportunity this week to shine with Shaun Alexander out. Alexander will miss another game at least, but Morris is not good enough to take advantage of this.
RB Dominic Rhodes, IND - He had three carries for no yards while Addai ran wild. The RBBC experiment is over and Rhodes lost to the younger Addai.
WR Reggie Brown, PHI - The return of Donte’ Stallworth spelled doom to Brown’s stats. Of course the Jaguars defense was likely the primary reason the Eagles struggled, we don’t like the pattern we’re seeing. In the four games Stallworth played this season, Brown has seven catches for 119 yards and two TDs. In the four games without Stallworth, Brown has 19 catches for 383 yards and three TDs. Brown’s four lowest fantasy point games have been when Stallworth was on the field.
WR Nate Burleson, SEA - He is so buried in the rotation that it’s almost unbelievable. Burleson has seen four passes thrown his way in the last three weeks. Compare that to D.J. Hackett’s 14 targets over the same span, and you’ll see the Burleson doesn’t deserve to even be on a roster in most fantasy leagues.
WR Ronald Curry, OAK - Curry had a little value when Jerry Porter was in the doghouse, but with Porter back on the field, Curry isn’t worth considering.
WR Bryant Johnson, ARI - Much was expected of Johnson when Larry Fitzgerald went down with injury, but he has disappointed. In the last three games, Johnson has caught a total of six balls for 113 yards and a TD. He’s just not getting it done. Even Troy Walters saw more targets than Johnson in week eight (eight to five).
WR Keyshawn Johnson, CAR - In a game where many thought Johnson would primed for a big night, Johnson came up flat against his former team. He caught only one ball against Dallas for 19 yards as the entire Carolina offense struggled.
WR Samie Parker, KC - Against the Seahawks, Damon Huard threw for 312 yards. Parker caught one ball for 12 yards. He was only targeted twice all game.
WR Rod Smith, DEN - A week after a semi-breakout game against the Browns, Smith reverts back to below average form with a two-catch, 28-yard effort. With Jake Plummer under center, Smith will not be a consistent fantasy force.
WR Reggie Williams, JAX - There are a couple of reasons to be sour on Williams: 1) The Jaguars have turned to the ground game in a big way, and 2) Matt Jones is healthy again. With Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew getting tons of carries and Jones getting more looks as the primary WR, there simply isn’t enough action remaining for Williams.
TE Chris Baker, NYJ - Even though he was shafted on the TD catch, Baker has only 20 targets all season (good for 25th among TEs). He has fewer looks than guys like George Wrighster, Bubba Franks, Bo Scaife and David Martin. Baker simply doesn’t get enough exposure to be a viable fantasy force.
TE Heath Miller, PIT - Miller started the year with a bang as he caught three balls for 101 yards and a TD. Since then, he has totaled 11 catches for 97 yards and one TD. Even on a day where Ben Roethlisberger passed for 301 yards, Miller only has two receptions for ten yards. He simply isn’t getting the job done this season.
TE Ben Troupe, TEN - Troupe has been a huge disappointment this season. Many believed he was poised to push into the 2nd tier of fantasy TEs, but he rarely even catches more than a single ball per game (five games this season with zero or one catch).
PK Shayne Graham, CIN - Graham is having a good season so far (tied for fifth in fantasy points per game), but the upcoming schedule is a bit daunting as Baltimore, San Diego and New Orleans have defending opposing PKs well this season.
PK Matt Stover, BAL - It's normally a good thing for a PK when his offense starts scoring more, but the Ravens are actually becoming too efficient. They have provided Stover eight PAT opportunities in his last two games. However, he hasn't lined up for a FG in that span either. He simply isn't scoring enough.
TD Buffalo Bills, BUF - The Bills haven’t been a great fantasy option this season, but they are to be avoided in the next two weeks as they face the Packers and Colts.
TD Jacksonville Jaguars, JAX - The Jaguars' defense played very well against the Eagles' offense, but they aren't scoring well fantasy-wise. In their last two games, they have only five sacks and have not forced a turnover.
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