Week 5 Upgrades/Downgrades

Upgrades

QB Drew Bledsoe, DAL - Drew plays Philadelphia and Houston the next two weeks so he should be very active in the passing game in the near future. The talks concerning benching him for Tony Romo have subsided with better play as well. He did not light up the fantasy scoring this week, but managed the game very well. He finished 13 for 20 for 179 yards and 2 TDs.

QB Drew Brees, NO - Only Jon Kitna and Peyton Manning have more passing yards this season (McNabb will likely pass him after tonight's game too). For a quarterback that was likely drafted late, he should be considered for a start virtually every week. He draws both the Bucs and the Eagles at home in weeks 5 and 6. Seeing how he just put up 349 yards on a tough Atlanta defense through the air, we like Brees throwing prospects in weeks 5 and 6.

QB Aaron Brooks, OAK - It's official. Andrew Walter is horrible. As bad as Brooks has looked, he will be starting again as soon as he is healthy.

QB Mark Brunell, WAS - Mark saved his best performance against the tough Jacksonville defense. This Redskin team poses many matchup problems when Clinton Portis is on the field. As defenses attempt to contain Portis, Brunell has been able to exploit single coverage in the last few games. He finished the day 329 passing yards and 3 TDs.

QB Marc Bulger, STL - He is looking more in control of things every week. He had his best game of the season to date posting 328 yards and 3 TDs through the air. We expect his good fortune to continue as he draws Green Bay's weak defense in week 5.

QB David Carr, HOU - He is averaging 2 TDs per contest (7 passing and 1 rushing TDs in 4 games). In a per game basis, Carr is currently the 8th best QB. He is on bye this week, but should see plenty of opportunity going forward.

QB Charlie Frye, CLE - He is averaging 20 fantasy points a contest, but might be available on your waiver wire. He did not manage a rushing TD this week, but did toss 3 passing TDs to go with his 192 passing yards. Braylon Edwards is a deep threat and Kellen Winslow is emerging as the best TE this season. All while the running game has struggled.

QB Rex Grossman, CHI - He has looked great so far this year hitting on deep passes as well as managing the game. He has become a must-start every week. Despite playing against a supposedly tough Seattle defense, Grossman shredded this unit for 232 yards and 2 scores. And you got the feeling he could have done a lot more had the team needed it.

QB Jon Kitna, DET - OC Mike Martz loves to throw the ball. Through 4 games, Kitna leads all QBs with 150 pass attempts. Roy Williams has emerged as a steadying force in the passing game. Kevin Jones provides the RB dump off valve that Martz teams like to employ. Add it all up and Kitna has 1081 passing yards so far this season. He completed 29 of 43 yesterday for 280 yards and 2 TDs.

QB Byron Leftwich, JAX - We downgraded him last week and then he responds with a huge game. That's part of the problem we have rating Leftwich's prospects going forward. He is capable of having a great game against a tough defense and a lousy one against a soft defense. But he came up big this week despite a limited Matt Jones. That's enough for us to discount week 3 as the anomaly. He finished the day with 289 passing yards and 3 TDs on just 35 pass attempts.

QB Matt Leinart, ARI - He has been named the starting QB for the Arizona Cardinals. With the weapons he has at his disposal in the passing game, it's hard not to predict early success for Leinart. He should also improve with a full week of practicing with the first team.

QB J.P. Losman, BUF - He is quietly amassing some nice games. He completed 23 of 32 for 222 yards and a TD on Sunday while leading his team to victory. The talk of JP being benched is over. This is his team going forward.

QB Vince Young, TEN - He looks like a deer in the headlights at times, but he could be a decent fantasy option against weak pass rushes. He remains a major threat to run the ball and is very hard to bring down when he does tuck and run.

RB Joseph Addai, IND - Addai finally saw more action that Dominic Rhodes this week. We fully expect this to be the case going forward. Addai could actually be the full-time starter after the Colts' week 6 bye. He should have a break-through week playing against the soft Titans this week He finished with 99 combined yards and a TD on 23 touches.

RB Ron Dayne, HOU - The goal was to split carries with Samkon Gado, but Dayne outplayed Gado and got the majority of the work. Dayne was far from impressive (with just 58 yards on 22 carries), but Gado was worse.

RB Reuben Droughns, CLE - His value had hit rock-bottom playing behind a struggling offensive line. This game re-establishes Droughns as the best RB on the Browns. He finished the day with 100 rushing and 24 receiving yards yet failed to score.

RB DeShaun Foster, CAR - The Panthers got another important win this week to go to 2-2. This is important because each win keeps Foster entrenched as the starter. Foster had a solid game gaining 105 yards and a TD on 16 carries. DeAngelo Williams broke a huge run on his first carry but still received only 1/3 of the carries.

RB Larry Johnson, KC - Drafted as a first or second pick in most leagues, people were starting to panic as the power RB had not crossed the goal line. This team still has offensive line issues, but Larry showed he still has a nose for the endzone. He led all RBs scoring 26.2 fantasy points (101 rushing, 41 receiving, 2 rushing TDs).

RB Julius Jones, DAL - The supposed RBBC with Marion Barber looks like it's mostly Julius with a dash of Marion to us. Jones has 60 carries while Barber has just 20. Jones finished the day with 122 rushing yards and a TD on just 23 carries. Barber saw 9 carries.

RB Kevin Jones, DET - He had a great game despite gaining just 4 yards on 5 receptions. Involved in both the rushing and passing games, Kevin Jones is showing the potential we all knew he had. He finished the day with 93 rushing yards and 2 TDs on 19 carries.

RB Thomas Jones, CHI - If the Bears have a solid running game, this could easily be the best team in the NFL. Thomas Jones ran with purpose on Sunday punishing the Seahawks with 98 yards and 2 scores. Cedric Benson also had some success, but got a lot of his yards/carries with the game out of reach.

RB Maurice Jones-Drew, JAX - He only had 3 rush attempts, but finished with 53 yards and a TD receiving on just 3 catches. We expect him to be much more involved in this offense going forward.

RB LaMont Jordan, OAK - This offense is still very bad, but at least they showed signs of a running game. Jordan finished with 141 combined yards and a TD. Seeing how his value was almost worthless before this game, this is a big uptick. Brooks returning should help this offense going forward.

RB Laurence Maroney, NE - He runs with such purpose. Head down and banging people. I am not sure he knows what running out of bounds even is. The Patriots have become a full-fledged running team and won't hesitate to keep running if a defense does not show it can stop it. Maroney had an impressive 125 rushing yards and 2 TDs on just 15 carries. Should Dillon get nicked at all, Maroney's stock would accelerate through the roof.

RB Willis McGahee, BUF - He finally found the endzone this week. As more teams respect that JP Losman can actually beat them in the air, McGahee should see better opportunities.

RB Clinton Portis, WAS - If only he had not hurt his shoulder in the preseason, we might be watching something very special regarding Portis. Every play Portis is in, this Washington offense looks very good. He rolled up 140 combined yards and a TD with 29 touches. Play action through him also freed up Santana Moss to come up with big plays.

RB Leon Washington, NYJ - This really is a mess in New York with the running backs. But if you are desperate at RB, you might want to stash Leon Washington on your roster. The rookie has looked good in limited action this season. He had 33 yards on 9 carries and added 8 yards on a reception.

RB LenDale White, TEN - Travis Henry was deactivated as the team attempted to get LenDale more involved. He finished with 39 yards on 9 carries. As the losses mount, we expect White to see more and more action.

WR Bernard Berrian, CHI - Berrian continues to produce solid numbers and crossed the 100-yard mark against a very good Seattle defense. Berrian’s 28 targets are second on the team to Muhsin Muhammad.

WR Isaac Bruce, STL - The Rams offense has looked better over the last couple of weeks, and Bruce is a huge part of the resurgence. Against the Lions, Bruce was targeted 12 times and caught seven balls for 100 yards and a TD.

WR Marques Colston, NO - If you haven’t been watching the Saints this year, there is a new WR1 in New Orleans. So far this season, Colston has more targets than Joe Horn (33 to 24), more catches (20 to 15), more yards (336 to 223) and more TDs (three to zero). Colston has also been extremely consistent – at least four catches each week and a TD in three different games this year.

WR Lee Evans, BUF - Evans continues to be the vital piece of the Buffalo passing game. He has caught 15 balls in the last two games. A week five contest against the Bears will be tough, but Evans should excel against the next three opponents (Detroit, New England, and Green Bay).

WR Mike Furrey, DET - Until week four, Furrey could be counted upon to provide a handful of catches and around 50 yards receiving. Things improved in week four as Furrey hauled in eight balls for 80 yards and a pair of TDs. He seems to have a lock on the WR2 spot and shows no signs of slacking up. Conventional wisdom will have the Lions offense improving as the season wears on, so it is reasonable to expect Furrey to at least continue to produce good fantasy stats.

WR Terry Glenn, DAL - Terrell Owens may steal the headlines, but Glenn is turning in the great numbers. In his last two games, Glenn has 11 catches for 148 yards and an impressive three TDs. With Owens as the focus of opposing defenses, Glenn is obviously enjoying the softer coverage.

WR Andre Johnson, HOU - Johnson has been very good over the last couple of weeks (26 targets, 20 catches, 253 yards and a TD). Digging deeper into his target numbers yields a nice observation: in 2005, Johnson had two games with 13 or more targets. He already has two such games this season.

WR Joe Jurevicius, CLE - Jurevicius gets the upgrade simply for getting back on the field. A few weeks ago, we feared he would miss a big chunk of the season with broken ribs, but he was back against the Raiders. We were particularly impressed to see him with five targets (second on the team), three receptions and a TD.

WR Eddie Kennison, KC - Kennison had a good outing in week four (six catches for 86 yards and a TD). He showed that he wasn’t quite ready to be taken out to pasture. We still aren’t thrilled with his situation (after all…Damon Huard is still Damon Huard), but Kennison still looks like a viable fantasy option.

WR Santana Moss, WAS - In case you missed the action last Sunday, Moss caught four balls for 138 yards and three TDs. That’s the kind of big-play ability that makes Moss so appealing. Of course he’ll still have the occasional 3-catch, 40-yard outing, but his big weeks can be enormous. Also, he faces the Giants and Titans in the next two games, so expect more big weeks soon.

WR Terrell Owens, DAL - Owens easily leads the team in targets (27 to 19 for Terry Glenn), but that is to be expected. Owens gets the upgrade because even though he was supposed to miss two to four weeks after surgery, he did not miss a single game. While he may get a few more nagging injuries now that he’s older, Owens is showing the ability to quickly get back on the field. Now if he could just find the endzone, we’d be thrilled.

WR Steve Smith, CAR - This upgrade should be obvious. We were glad to see Smith return to action in week three, but we were excited to see him go through another week in good health. In only two weeks, Smith has already accumulated 27 targets, 17 receptions, almost 200 yards and a TD. He leads all WRs in targets per game.

WR Reggie Williams, JAX - Williams had the first multiple TD game of his career against the Redskins, but it wasn’t enough. Still, with Matt Jones fighting various injuries, Williams is obviously the player Byron Leftwich looks to when a play is needed.

WR Roy Williams, DET - There are many reasons to like Roy Williams. He is fourth among all WRs with 40 targets. He is fifth among all WRs with 25 receptions. He is fourth among all WRs with 384 receiving yards. If he could just catch more than one TD every four games, he would be a fantastic fantasy option. As it is, he is the top WR in an offense that should improve as the season unfolds.

TE Chris Cooley, WAS - Cooley (22 targets) is a close second to WR Santana Moss (24) for the team lead, but he gets the upgrade because the Redskins’ offense is finally showing some life. Over the last two weeks, Cooley has eight catches and remains a vital part of the Washington passing game.

TE Todd Heap, BAL - He hasn’t been blowing us away with his yardage, but Heap has at least four catches in each week and has three straight games with a TD. He is a favorite of Steve McNair in the redzone, and that will keep his fantasy production strong.

TE Marcedes Lewis, JAX - George Wrighster is not the answer at TE, and the Jaguars know it. Lewis is slowly getting healthy and should soon take over the roll as primary receiving TE.

TE Ben Troupe, TEN - In week four, Troupe doubled his season total for receptions and caught his first TD of the season. Of course when you only have three catches through three games, it’s pretty easy to double the total. However, Troupe gets the upgrade for two reasons: 1) he’s arguably the best receiver on the team, and 2) rookie QBs are notorious for relying on TEs to dump the ball to.

PK Morten Andersen, ATL - Andersen had an amazing week four with five FGs and two PATs. The Falcons have produced a large number of FG attempts (16), so look for Andersen to continue to score well.

PK Robbie Gould, CHI - The Bears’ offense continues to produce tons of scoring opportunities for Gould. He is still perfect on his 24 kicks this season and is tied for the league lead in scoring with 50 points.

PK John Hall, WAS - After a slow couple of weeks to open the season, the Washington offense has picked up big time over the last couple of games. Over that span, Hall has four FGs and six PATs.

PK Jeff Wilkins, STL - The Rams offense has had 24 scoring drives this year but only scored six TDs. Of course that means Wilkins has kicked an incredible 18 FGs already. He has missed three but is still tied for the league lead in scoring with 50 points.

TD Chicago Bears, CHI - We knew the Bears were a solid unit, but stopping Green Bay, Detroit and Chicago wasn’t all that impressive. However, the week four performance against the Seahawks was nothing short of astounding. Not only do the Bears hold down opponents, but they get great turnover (10) and sack (15) numbers. This is truly a great defense.

TD Kansas City Chiefs, KC - Even though their opponent was San Francisco, anytime you shut out an NFL team, it is impressive. The Chiefs are holding opponents to fewer than 250 total yards and 11 points per game, and the return game is always a threat with Dante Hall. If the turnovers and sacks (six apiece) would improve, this would be a fantastic fantasy unit.

TD Atlanta Falcons, ATL - The Falcons defense absolutely dominated the Cardinals on Sunday. First, they held Arizona to 187 total yards and three offensive points. Second, they forced four turnovers and four sacks. Finally, they even scored a TD. In some scoring systems, Atlanta won games on their own.

TD St. Louis Rams, STL - The Rams aren’t stopping anyone from moving the ball or from scoring, so if your league deducts points for that, you’ll want to tread lightly here. However, they are definitely creating turnovers (a league-leading 13).

Downgrades

QB Kerry Collins, TEN - Consider us shocked that bringing in your starting QB the week before the season began didn’t work out well. As you know, Collins has been shown the bench in favor of Vince Young.

QB Daunte Culpepper, MIA - We were willing to give Culpepper and the Dolphins offense one more game to get it going, but if they can’t excel against the Texans then we’re done. Culpepper will have to show us something before we can consider him a starting fantasy QB.

QB Matt Hasselbeck, SEA - We didn’t expect Hasselbeck to throw for four TDs against the Bears, but we did figure he’d have a better outing than zero scores and two INTs. Is Shaun Alexander really that important to this team?

QB Carson Palmer, CIN - Well that was certainly unexpected. The Bengals have a week off and the surprisingly soft Buccaneers and Panthers defenses on tap, but the schedule then takes a rough turn. Beginning in week eight, they face Atlanta, Baltimore and San Diego. It would not be a surprise to see Palmer and the entire Bengals’ offense to have some trouble.

QB Ben Roethlisberger, PIT - Roethlisberger has struggled mightily this season (349 passing yards, zero TDs and five INTs in two games). Of course he could bounce back, but he now faces a tough string of opponents (San Diego, Kansas City and Atlanta). Until he improves, Roethlisberger should stay on your bench if possible.

QB Alex Smith, SF - The Chiefs brought the Alex Smith show back to earth. After his week six and week eight games (against San Diego and Chicago), the show might be six feet under.

QB Andrew Walter, OAK - Walter showed he was not ready for the big time by completing nine of 23 for 68 yards. We should probably upgrade Aaron Brooks, but he will surely resume the starting role when healthy. However, the Raiders offense is simply bad.

QB Kurt Warner, ARI - After another fumblefest, Warner lost his job to the rookie Matt Leinart. It is likely that only an injury to Leinart will get Warner back on the field.

RB Michael Bennett, KC - Bennett was a healthy inactive in week four. If you are holding him “just in case”, you might want to reconsider.

RB Ronnie Brown, MIA - After scoring a total of 28 points against the Titans and Texans, we are officially disgusted with the entire Miami offense. Brown had a ton of potential this season, but the offense needs to improve in order for the young back to be a threat.

RB Reggie Bush, NO - The Saints’ offense is playing well right now, but Bush isn’t producing much. He’s still a decent option in PPR leagues, but if your scoring system doesn’t reward receptions, he is becoming a drain on your starting lineup.

RB Corey Dillon, NE - Dillon is still getting a good number of carries, but he is so outclassed by Laurence Maroney that is isn’t even funny.

RB Frank Gore, SF - Gore is still the primary RB for the 49ers, but from most accounts Michael Robinson has the short-yardage role. Plus, we are starting to get worried about the fumbling problem Gore has developed. Aside from all of that, Gore would merit a downgrade simply because the team suffered the shutout against the Chiefs. With San Diego and Chicago looming soon, points will soon be hard to come by.

RB Cedric Houston, NYJ - Houston injured his knee against the Colts, and his status is unclear. However, Kevan Barlow is starting and getting the goal line looks, and Leon Washington is pushing for playing time. Even if Houston was healthy, there would be a big squeeze for playing time.

RB Jamal Lewis, BAL - Yes, the Chargers are a tough matchup, but Lewis showed almost nothing in a huge game. A quality back would have offered more than 34 yards of total offense.

RB Wali Lundy, HOU - Lundy is behind Ron Dayne and Samkon Gado. And by behind, we mean he isn’t even active on Sunday.

WR Drew Bennett, TEN - It was no coincidence that Bennett had his lowest number of targets in week four. With the rookie Vince Young learning the ropes, any WR will have a tough time excelling.

WR Anquan Boldin, ARI - Things are awry in Arizona. While the QB play could improve a bit with Kurt Warner seeing the bench (hard to be worse), we are still willing to back off the Arizona WRs for a bit. Why? The upcoming schedule is really tough. In week five, the Chiefs (riding high after a shut-out) will make things tough for the rookie Matt Leinart, and in week six, he’ll face the Bears.

WR Antonio Bryant, SF - It looks like the party might be over in San Francisco as the schedule now takes a terrible turn. The 49ers play Oakland in week five. On the surface that looks tasty, but the Raiders will most likely simply lay down for Frank Gore. Then San Francisco sandwiches the Chargers and Bears around a week seven bye. Good luck with that.

WR Chris Chambers, MIA - While the upcoming schedule (Patriots, Jets, and Packers) isn't too tough, this Miami offense couldn’t even dominate Tennessee and Houston over the last couple of weeks. While every other team in the league looks like a juggernaut against that duo, the Dolphins simply look blah. Until things turn around, Chambers’ value potential is lessened.

WR Larry Fitzgerald, ARI - Kurt Warner has really handicapped the effectiveness of the Arizona WRs, but it will be hard for Matt Leinart to excel in these next couple of weeks. The Chiefs and the Bears have been very good against opposing QBs this season, so there is really no reason to expect a rookie to shine as a new starter.

WR David Givens, TEN - While Givens did lead the team in targets in week four, the Titans’ passing game is still in shambles. We really can’t see starting him unless your options are extremely thin.

WR Matt Jones, JAX - Jones was coming back from a strained groin and then tweaked a hamstring against the Redskins. Jones should perform at a high level when healthy, but he seems to have a tough time getting (and staying) to 100%.

WR Ashley Lelie, ATL - With Roddy White nursing a few minor injuries, Lelie was among the most-targeted WRs in Atlanta. However, while we don’t necessarily agree with them, it’s pretty apparent that the Falcons view Lelie as the third WR behind a healthy Michael Jenkins and White (witness Lelie’ two targets against the Cardinals). As the third WR (and fourth receiving option) in an anemic Atlanta passing game, Lelie simply doesn’t have much value.

WR Keenan McCardell, SD - Occasionally, a good player will have a game without a catch. We don’t like it, but it’s not the end of the world. However, when a player goes without a target, we can’t overlook it. There was no mention of injury to McCardell, so in a huge matchup with the Ravens, he was simply not a part of the offense.

WR Randy Moss, OAK - It’s hard to downgrade a guy after he scores his first TD of the season, but a catch for five yards against the Cleveland Browns is so uninspiring. The worst thing about having Moss on your roster is you probably can’t trade him for anything of any value. Moss and the Raiders’ offense are so bad right now that he’s no longer an automatic start each week. As a matter of fact, he’s closer to an automatic bench unless things improve in Oakland.

WR Dennis Northcutt, CLE - Northcutt didn’t have a ton of value anyway, but with Joe Jurevicius back on the field, Northcutt is almost worthless.

WR Rod Smith, DEN - Fellow WR Javon Walker should be included here as well because the downgrade is due to scheduling. The next four opponents (Baltimore, Oakland, Cleveland and Indianapolis) could be tough on Smith and Walker. Obviously, the Ravens simply an outstanding defense, and any team could struggle against them. The Raiders, Browns and Colts are tough matchups for WRs because they are also great matchups for RBs. Oakland, Cleveland and Indianapolis are very susceptible to opposing RBs. Given that the Broncos have shown an ability to run well, they will have few reasons to air it out.

WR Alvis Whitted, OAK - We aren’t positive, but there may be a few of you still holding on to Whitted with the hopes that the Raiders will turn the ship around. Well, they won’t, and as the part-time WR2 (along with Ronald Curry) Whitted has no value.

TE Alge Crumpler, ATL - The Falcons are running the ball so well that Crumpler isn’t getting enough action to be a solid fantasy TE. Through four games, Crumpler has caught only 11 balls for 128 yards (far off his the pace to match his 65 receptions and 877 yards from a year ago). As the 11th ranked fantasy TE, Crumpler is at best a fringe starter.

TE Antonio Gates, SD - Gates’ production isn’t horrible for the average TE (3.3 catches and 41 yards receiving), but he is not supposed to be the average TE. Seeing as how he was taken in the second or third round in almost every fantasy draft in the world, his numbers are woefully inadequate thus far in 2006.

TE Randy McMichael, MIA - It’s bad enough that the Miami offense has been struggling this season (they can’t even look good against Tennessee and Houston), but McMichael isn’t seeing the ball enough. Through four games, Chris Chambers, Wes Welker, Marty Booker and Ronnie Brown each have more targets than does McMichael. The fifth option on any offense isn’t worth starting in many fantasy leagues. If his targets don’t pick up soon, McMichael might not be worth holding in some fantasy leagues.

TE Ben Watson, NE - Watson is getting plenty of targets (27 on the season), but he is getting way too much attention from opposing defenses. It is obvious that Watson is the best receiver in New England, and defensive coordinators are game-planning against him. He’ll still have a few good games, but he’ll have a few stinkers like in week four.

TE Jason Witten, DAL - With the running game going well (217 yards on the ground against the Titans), there isn’t much to go around through the air. Seeing as how Terrell Owens and Terry Glenn are obviously getting big chunks of the offense, Witten’s slice of the pie is tiny. Through three games, Witten has only nine catches and 97 yards and has yet to find the endzone.

PK Neil Rackers, ARI - This is certainly not the 2005 version of Neil Rackers. The Cardinals’ offense simply isn’t giving him the scoring opportunities.

PK Jeff Reed, PIT - The Steelers offense is sputtering, and Reed is suffering. He has only six PATS and is two for two on FG chances this season. To makes things worse, the upcoming schedule includes the Chargers, Chiefs and Falcons.

TD Cincinnati Bengals, CIN - The Cincinnati defense was supposed to have turned the corner to legitimacy, but they laid a fat one against the Patriots. This is not a group that can be relied upon every week.

TD Tampa Bay Buccaneers, TB - Tampa Bay has been a mediocre unit so far this season, and things probably won’t get much better anytime soon as they face the Saints, Bengals, Eagles, Giants, Saints (again), Panthers, Redskins and Cowboys in succession.

TD Arizona Cardinals, ARI - This isn’t a very good defense, but they are getting no help from the Arizona offense. Either way, the Cardinals are not a viable fantasy option.

TD Detroit Lions, DET - The Lions defense has allowed opponents to gain tons of yards and score tons of points. They have forced only four turnovers and have sacked the QB only six times. All of that adds up to waiver wire defense.

TD Carolina Panthers, CAR - The Panthers were drafted this year with the idea that they would be an elite fantasy defense. However, they have only three turnovers and eight sacks this year. They aren’t horrible, but the Carolina defense is no longer a must-start group.

TD Tennessee Titans, TEN - The Tennessee defense can’t stop anyone, and they have Indianapolis and Washington up next on the schedule. That’s not good for their fantasy prospects.