Week 13 Upgrades/Downgrades

Upgrades

QB Drew Brees, NO - Ho-hum – another day, another 300+ yard effort from Brees. After Peyton Manning’s pedestrian week 12 effort, Brees has moved into the #1 fantasy QB spot. His yardage numbers are amazing - consider that Brees has thrown for 505 more yards than has second place Manning. With five games left in the season, Brees needs only 107 more yards to match his season-high yardage total (3576 yards in 2005).

QB Jason Campbell, WAS - With Santana Moss not at 100%, there is a ceiling on Campbell’s numbers, but we like what we see in the young QB. Against the Panthers, the transmitter in his helmet went out before the play was called. Campbell kept his cool and called a play based on the players that were in the huddle. The play went for a 66-yard game-winning TD.

QB Jay Cutler, DEN - Cutler will indeed get the start in week 13. It would be a shock to see HC Mike Shanahan go back to Jake Plummer this season, so Cutler could be a nice late-season pickup.

QB Matt Leinart, ARI - While people like to joke about their grandma being able to complete passes when Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald are the WRs, Leinart has had a tough go of this season. He might have turned the corner against the Vikings as he topped the 400-yard mark (his first game throwing over 300 yards even). We still want more scoring (only one TD against Minnesota and only three passing TDs in his last five games), but the huge yardage total is encouraging.

QB Chad Pennington, NYJ - There were rumors circulating that the Jets’ coaching staff was close to making a QB change, but Pennington’s week 12 performance (24 out of 31 for 286 yards and a TD) should put any possible change on the back burner.

QB Tony Romo, DAL - Let’s see – five TDs against the Buccaneers plus Jessica Simpson equals the most obvious upgrade of the year.

QB Vince Young, TEN - He doesn’t have a ton of comfortability in the pocket, but is obvious that Young is a special player. His upcoming schedule looks pretty nice too - he’ll have to score points to keep up with the Colts, and he’ll have an easier time working against the Texans.

RB Joseph Addai, IND - Much to the dismay of Peyton Manning owners across the country, the Colts seemed perfectly content to run Addai last night. He responded with an enormous game in tallying his first 100-yard game of the season and scoring more TDs than in his prior ten games combined. He is certainly a player on the rise.

RB Marion Barber III, DAL - The Cowboys’ offense is cruising right now, and Barber is a huge part of it around the goal line. He is on pace for a 16-TD season.

RB Tatum Bell, DEN - Bell has missed two straight games after being upgraded to probable before game day. After being inactive last Thursday, Bell said he would be ready to play in week 13. However, that’s not why he’s getting an upgrade here. After seeing Mike Bell and Damian Nash look horrible against the Chiefs, we are certain that a healthy Tatum Bell will be Denver’s primary RB. When he is healthy, Tatum Bell will carry the full load.

RB Ladell Betts, WAS - We still don’t like Betts all that much, but T.J. Duckett clearly lacks the high gear needed to be a viable runner between the 20s (or maybe even between the 10s). Another advantage Betts has is his receiving ability. He’s not LaDainian Tomlinson, but Betts should grab a few passes each week.

RB Wali Lundy, HOU - While he’s sharing rushes with Samkon Gado, Lundy has become a big part of the passing game. In his last two games, Lundy has caught all 12 passes thrown his way for 90 yards. Those are great numbers, but they keep him as a viable option in leagues that award a point per reception.

RB Deuce McAllister, NO - Despite being on a passing team and sharing time with Reggie Bush, McAllister has had a decent string of games lately. In his last four contests, McAllister has 247 total yards and four TDs.

RB Willis McGahee, BUF - McGahee missed two games with his injured ribs but hurried back for week 12 (at least in part to Anthony Thomas’ success in relief). McGahee looked refreshed against the Jaguars and ran for 63 yards and a pair of TD on only 12 carries.

RB Sammy Morris, MIA - With Ronnie Brown out at least one week, Morris becomes the team’s starting RB. We aren’t excited about him facing Jacksonville and New England, but a starting RB can be tough to find in some fantasy leagues.

RB DeAngelo Williams, CAR - Williams started for the injured DeShaun Foster and was on his way to a 100-yard effort (he had 50 yards in the first half). Unfortunately, the Panthers’ offense pretty much collapsed in the second half. Even so, Williams has played well enough in the last two weeks to warrant a good deal of playing time when Foster returns from injury.

WR Bernard Berrian, CHI - Berrian played in week 11, but he was clearly not 100%. Against the Patriots, he was much more active and caught five balls for 104 yards on 11 targets. With Mark Bradley more involved in the offense, Berrian doesn’t have as much upside, but he is still a nice option.

WR Anquan Boldin, ARI - After four straight sub-100 yard games, Boldin finally exploded for a nice nine-catch, 140-yard, and one-TD effort against the Vikings. While Minnesota has allowed some big passing games this season, it is still nice to see Boldin and Cardinals get something going.

WR Marty Booker, MIA - Booker turned in an outstanding game on Thanksgiving Day as he caught seven passes on eight targets for 115 yards and a pair of TDs. While Chris Chambers is getting more looks this season, Booker seems to be clicking better with Joey Harrington. In the last two games, Booker has caught 13 of the 17 passes (76%) thrown his way while Chambers has caught only eight of 19 (42%).

WR Laveranues Coles, NYJ - Coles had a three-week lull before week 11 that soured a lot of people. However, in the last two games he has caught 17 balls for 191 yards and a TD. Coles continues to be a focal part of the passing game and has been targeted 47 times over his last four games.

WR Larry Fitzgerald, ARI - While he is still stuck at only two TDs on the season, Fitzgerald definitely merits an upgrade after an 11-catch, 172-yard effort against the Vikings. We’re still cautious with Matt Leinart at the helm, but the week 12 game could be the spark this offense needs to excel over the remainder of the season.

WR Terry Glenn, DAL - While Terrell Owens is certainly Tony Romo’s primary target, Glenn has turned in a couple of nice games in the last two weeks (totaling 10 catches for 167 yards and two TDs).

WR Devery Henderson, NO - While Marques Colston should be back for week 13 (he was very close to playing in week 12 according to HC Sean Payton), we still like Henderson’s prospects fort he remainder of the season. This offense is obviously built around the arm of Drew Brees, and he is absolutely on fire right now (1954 yards and 11 TDs in his last five games). Even if Henderson is relegated to WR3 status behind Colston and Joe Horn, there should be enough game to go around.

WR Terrell Owens, DAL - For a while on Thanksgiving, it looked like Owens was going to turn in a disappointing effort. At the end of the game, he finished with eight catches for 107 yards and a TD. It almost seems like Owens can’t have a bad game with Tony Romo behind center.

WR Marcus Robinson, MIN - As funny (or maybe sad) as it sounds, Robinson is easily the best WR in Minnesota. Troy Williamson has been atrocious this season, and Travis Taylor is nothing more than Travis Taylor. Robinson is the team’s only real threat right now in the passing game. His back has kept him on the sidelines for almost a month, but he is finally healthy again and showed up for 82 yards and a TD on seven catches against the Cardinals.

WR Rod Smith, DEN - With Jake Plummer throwing the ball, Smith has been mediocre at best and horrible more often this season. This upgrade is based solely upon the speculation that Jay Cutler has to be a better option than Plummer.

TE Chris Cooley, WAS - How important is Cooley to the Washington offense? No other receiver had over 12 yards against the Panthers.

TE Todd Heap, BAL - Heap is so tough and such a gamer that we really don’t pay attention to him being listed as questionable. He’s ailing a bit right now, but he was excellent against Pittsburgh for 58 yards and a TD on seven catches.

TE Ben Watson, NE - Over his last six games, Watson has put together very good numbers. In that span, he has 29 catches for 388 yards and three TDs. Those numbers extrapolate to 77 receptions for 1034 yards and eight TDs over a 16-game season.

PK Martin Gramatica, DAL - Gramatica is the new PK for Dallas.

PK Matt Stover, BAL - Stover continues to put up nice numbers as the Ravens’ offense looks very good lately.

PK Lawrence Tynes, KC - The Chiefs are playing efficiently on offense, but they aren’t pushing the ball into the endzone with regularity. That and solid defense translates to lots of scoring opportunities for Tynes. He was gold against the Broncos while booting four short FGs and a PAT.

TD Miami Dolphins, MIA - The Dolphins attacked Jon Kitna with reckless abandon and sacked him eight times on Thanksgiving Day. They also forced two turnovers and held Detroit to 220 total yards.

TD Baltimore Ravens, BAL - This just in – Ben Roethlisberger has been sacked again. What a jailbreak that game was. Not only did the Ravens get to Roethlisberger nine times, but they picked him off twice, pitched a shut-out, and even scored a TD on a fumble return. That was absolute domination by the Baltimore defense.

Downgrades

QB Charlie Frye, CLE - Frye has been mediocre for several weeks now, but he took a turn for the worse against the Bengals with a zero TD, four INT display. Frye has zero 300+ yard days this season, only four games with over 200 yards, and only one game with more than one TD pass. He is simply not a viable fantasy option.

QB Bruce Gradkowski, TB - Gradkowski is a nice story, but he really isn’t a nice fantasy player. Of course this isn’t new information, but the downgrade is necessary due to the upcoming schedule. Gradkowski’s four two-TD games have come against team with poor pass defenses. He has no other poor defenses left on the schedule.

QB Rex Grossman, CHI - For the first time this season, Grossman has number in back-to-back horrible games. In the last two weeks, he has completed 26 of 56 passes for 295 yards, one TD and three INTs.

QB Joey Harrington, MIA - We don’t normally downgrade QBs that are coming off a three-TD game, but a downtick is warranted based on Miami’s upcoming schedule. In seven games played this season, Harrington has surpassed the 20-fantasy point mark only two times (against Green Bay and Detroit). Those two teams happen to be the two worst pass defenses on Miami’s schedule. There are no teams left on the schedule that bad against the pass, so we expect Harrington to struggle over the remainder of the season. Your best bet here is to trade Harrington away (the Donovan McNabb owner might be interested).

QB Jon Kitna, DET - Before his week eight bye, Kitna was rolling up some nice stats and was a quality fantasy QB. Since then, he has only one game over 300 yards and only one game with more than one TD. In his last three games, he has a total of 702 yards and two TDs. Those aren’t horrible numbers, but they aren’t at the level expected from a Mike Martz QB.

QB Eli Manning, NYG - The Giants are very much in disarray these days, and Manning’s play is doing nothing to get them out of it. He has only one 200+ yard effort since week five and hasn’t thrown for two TDs in a game since week seven. In his last three games, he has thrown for only 494 yards, two TDs and six INTs. If he is your “stud” QB, he has likely killed your team.

QB Jake Plummer, DEN - It looks like the bad play has finally caught up with Plummer. He will move to the bench this week in favor of rookie Jay Cutler.

QB Ben Roethlisberger, PIT - The poor guy got battered around all afternoon in Baltimore. With Pittsburgh’s seventh loss, we have to wonder about a couple of things: 1) Will the team be as focused with the playoffs all but out of reach? and 2) Will Roethlisberger be able to hold up for the rest of the season? One thing we don’t wonder about is the loss of Hines Ward. With Ward out after knee surgery, Roethlisberger will struggle to find open WRs.

RB Kevan Barlow, NYJ - Barlow has been a decent surprise this season due in large part to his TD scoring (six in his first nine games). In the last two weeks however, he hasn’t scored and gained only seven yards on 12 carries. It seems whatever value Barlow had has been negated by the availability of Cedric Houston.

RB Mike Bell, DEN - Mike Bell had been given an excellent chance to take over the starting RB job, but he has fallen flat. After a nice effort against the Chargers, Bell gained only 28 yards on 10 carries against the Chiefs. He simply has little ability to gain tough yards against a quality run defense. As soon as Tatum Bell is healthy, Mike Bell will return to the background.

RB Ronnie Brown, MIA - Brown had surgery on Friday to repair a broken hand. He is currently week-to-week, but HC Nick Saban said it would be “difficult” to see Brown playing this weekend. There is even talk that Brown might be done for the year.

RB Reuben Droughns, CLE - Droughns missed the week 11 game and was clearly not at 100% against the Bengals. In his stead, Jason Wright has looked at least viable and has been promised more looks even when Droughns is healthy.

RB Arlen Harris, DET - Harris started for the injured Kevin Jones in week 12 and turned in an eight-carry, 15-yard effort. Kevin Jones’ sprained ankle may keep Harris on the field, but he is definitely not an exciting fantasy option.

RB Damien Nash, DEN - There was mild talk of Nash getting a real shot at the starting job, but there can’t be much meat there after his four-carry, zero-yard effort against the Chiefs.

RB Chris Perry, CIN - After getting a late start to the 2006 season, Perry now has an early ending after suffering a broken leg against the Browns.

RB Anthony Thomas, BUF - Not only did Willis McGahee look fresh on Sunday in returning from a two-week absence, but Thomas suffered an ankle injury. His status is not known at this time, but this is obviously McGahee’s show again.

RB Leon Washington, NYJ - Washington’s value peaked week seven as he lit up the Lions for 129 yards and a pair of TDs. Since then, his yardage totals have steadily declined (51, 35, 22, and 17). The Jets seemed enamored with a three-pronged RBBC including Washington, Cedric Houston, and Kevan Barlow. That kills the value of all three backs.

WR Chris Chambers, MIA - Joey Harrington apparently didn’t get the memo about Chambers being the team’s premier WR. Of course he is still targeting Chambers often, but Harrington is definitely involving other WRs and TE Randy McMichael. Chambers is third on the team in receiving yardage and tied for second in receptions. He simply isn’t the man at WR right now.

WR Braylon Edwards, CLE - In the week leading up to the game against the Bengals, Edwards blasted the offensive playcalling and questioned the play of a teammate. During the game against the Bengals, Edwards got into a shouting match with Charlie Frye. Edwards is still very talented and has potential, but things aren’t going too well for him at the moment.

WR Marvin Harrison, IND - Harrison is having a fairly normal season with regards to receptions and yards (he’s on pace to catch 88 balls for 1194 yards after averaging 87 catches for 1177 yards over the last three years). However, he is far off his normal TD totals (on pace for seven after averaging 12). Also, while Harrison is still a solid fantasy option, it is fairly clear that Reggie Wayne has surpassed him as the team’s primary threat at WR.

WR Vincent Jackson, SD - He almost got the Plaxico Burress celebration award but was bailed out by Mike Carey. Of course Jackson was playing the Raiders who always seem to have officials that know every part of the rule book.

WR Donte Stallworth, PHI - The problem with Stallworth is the absence of Donovan McNabb. Jeff Garcia simply can not take full advantage of Stallworth’s strength with the deep ball and only targeted him three times against the Colts.

WR Hines Ward, PIT - Ward looked slow during the game against the Ravens. Afterward, it was revealed that he aggravated his knee injury in the contest and will undergo surgery for a broken bone in the knee. He will miss at least one week.

TE Dallas Clark, IND - Clark suffered a knee injury in the week 12 game against the Eagles. He did not return to the game and was on crutches during the second half.

PK Jay Feely, NYG - As an offense goes, so goes their PK. The Giants offense is currently struggling to score, so Feely is also putting up tiny numbers. In his last five games, he has surpassed the five-point mark only once.

PK Jeff Reed, PIT - His foot touched one ball yesterday – the second half kickoff.

PK Mike Vanderjagt, DAL - It is obvious that Bill Parcells is no longer worried about Vanderjagt as the team has released the former Colt and signed Martin Gramatica.

TD Pittsburgh Steelers, PIT - While they didn’t allow a ton of yards to Baltimore, the Steelers rarely applied significant pressure to Steve McNair. Against the Ravens, Pittsburgh accumulated zero sacks and zero turnovers.