Week 12 Upgrades/Downgrades

Upgrades

QB Tom Brady, NE - Yes, it was against the Packers, but we pretty much have to upgrade a guy that tosses four TDs. He has a tough matchup in week 12 against the Bears, but Detroit and Houston are looming.

QB Drew Brees, NO - Five-hundred ten yards? Are you serious? While the picks were costly, Brees still scored a ton of points in most leagues. Five-hundred ten yards!

QB Aaron Brooks, OAK - He wasn’t fantastic, but Brooks is certainly an improvement over Andrew Walter. His next three opponents have been soft against opposing QBs, so Brooks could have at least decent numbers. Of course, we’d really love for Randy Moss to decide to play, but that might be nothing more than wishful thinking right now.

QB Jason Campbell, WAS - Campbell didn’t set the world on fire, but he had a nice outing against the Buccaneers (throwing for a pair of TDs and no INTs). He’ll likely stick as the team’s starter and should have more potential when Santana Moss returns from injury.

QB Jeff Garcia, PHI - Garcia stepped in for the injured Donovan McNabb in week 11, so we expect him to get first shot as the team’s starting QB.

QB Matt Hasselbeck, SEA - Hasselbeck was close to returning last week, so we expect him to get back on the field this weekend.

QB Matt Leinart, ARI - Leinart finally played well enough to win. While a lot of that success had to do with his opponent last week, Leinart should continue to improve as the season unfolds. Plus, his big two WRs are healthy. If they can all get on the same page, Boldin and Fitzgerald have the ability to give good stats to almost any QB.

QB J.P. Losman, BUF - Losman had 209 passing yards and two TDs in the first quarter on Sunday. While he fell off his 836-yard / eight-TD pace, Losman still turned in his best effort of the season with 340 yards and a trio of TDs. Even better for Losman’s future was the game-winning drive and TD score to Peerless Price.

QB Ingle Martin, GB - This guy went from having the cushiest job in the league to possibly starting this weekend. With Aaron Rodgers out for the season and Brett Favre ailing with the elbow, Martin could actually contribute this weekend.

QB Carson Palmer, CIN - Palmer has 715 yards and six TDs in his last two games. It is obvious that he and Chad Johnson are clicking right now. When a player is playing this well, he should be started every week until further notice.

QB Philip Rivers, SD - For two straight weeks, Rivers has shown great composure in leading the Chargers back from deep second half deficits. In those two games, he has thrown for 559 yards and five scores. He is playing very well right now, and this offense never doubts their ability to score.

RB Marion Barber III, DAL - While Julius Jones gets the majority of carries (202 to Barber’s 82), Barber is without question the team’s goalline back (nine TDs to Jones’ three). Barber has been remarkably consistent with his scoring this season as well and has only three games without a TD.

RB Mike Bell, DEN - It’s almost impossible to read HC Mike Shanahan, but it’s pretty clear that the coach is miffed at Tatum Bell. Until Tatum Bell’s toes are completely healed, Mike Bell should have every opportunity to excel as Denver’s primary running threat. He’ll likely have a short hook, but as long as he doesn’t lay the ball on the ground, Mike Bell should produce nice stats.

RB Reggie Bush, NO - While we’d very much prefer to see more scoring from Bush, he is still a huge part of the team’s offense. In his last two games, Bush has 23 carries and 15 receptions for a total of 198 yards. If he continues to get so many touches, the TDs should come.

RB T.J. Duckett, WAS - Duckett was effective in limited carries while Ladell Betts struggled mightily. It wouldn’t be an overstatement to say that Duckett has more running ability than Betts, so it obviously wouldn’t be a surprise to see Duckett become the team’s primary RB over the remainder of the season.

RB Justin Fargas, OAK - With LaMont Jordan gone for the remainder of the season, Fargas has an excellent opportunity to show what he can do as a team’s primary runner.

RB Frank Gore, SF - Gore turned in an excellent day against the Seahawks as he ran 24 times for 212 yards while adding four catches for 26 yards. While he doesn’t see the endzone often enough (only one TD since week two), Gore has posted four 100+ yard games in his last six outings and has already crossed the 1000-yard mark on the season.

RB Arlen Harris, DET - We don’t like the upcoming schedule (Miami, New England, and Minnesota are each tough run defenses), but it looks like Harris should get the starting job at least on Thanksgiving Day. With Kevin Jones hobbled, Harris was the primary back last Sunday, so unless Jones is a super quick healer, Harris will be the man in week 12 as well.

RB Travis Henry, TEN - Henry continues to keep a stranglehold on the starting role. Henry gashed the Eagles’ defense 18 times for 143 yards (an excellent 7.9 YPC average). This is Henry’s second straight 100+ yard outing and his fourth of the season. Chris Brown can’t get off the bench, and LenDale White gets only a few touches per game. This is clearly Henry’s job.

RB Larry Johnson, KC - He isn’t scoring as many TDs as LaDainian Tomlinson, but Johnson is the clear #2 RB this season. He simply produces excellent numbers and shows no signs of slowing down.

RB Jamal Lewis, BAL - Historically, Lewis hasn’t been a big TD threat, but he notched three scores against the Falcons and obviously merits the upgrade. As we’ve mentioned often lately, Lewis’ numbers have been markedly improved since HC Brian Billick took over playcalling. There is no reason to believe that won’t continue to be the case.

RB Laurence Maroney, NE - Maroney was finally off the injury report last week and seems to have found his groove again. Against the Packers, he had his best rushing day since week four and his best receiving day since week three. If he can stay healthy, Maroney will be a nice option down the stretch.

RB Chester Taylor, MIN - Taylor had a nice game against a very good defense as he went for 80 yards and a pair of TDs against the Dolphins. Taylor has been pretty consistent this season and has only two games with fewer than 74 rushing yards (only ten carries in each of those games).

RB LaDainian Tomlinson, SD - We remember when a 20-TD season would create awe. Tomlinson has 22 TDs in only ten games. He’s obviously the top RB, but Tomlinson is more impressive with every outing.

RB Brian Westbrook, PHI - The TDs haven’t been coming and the loss of Donovan McNabb hurts the overall offense, but there is still reason to believe Westbrook will post better stats going forward. With Jeff Garcia at QB, Westbrook will likely be targeted more often (McNabb is more of a downfield passer and eight of Westbrook’s 12 catches were thrown by Garcia), and it is expected that the team will rely more heavily on the run.

RB Cadillac Williams, TB - Williams had his best day of the year against the Redskins as he carries 27 times for 122 yards (he added two receptions for 34 yards as well). The upcoming schedule is neither appealing nor daunting, but it’s certainly possible for Williams to improve his production simply due to an improved demeanor. His week 11 performance could be the jumpstart he needs.

RB DeAngelo Williams, CAR - We aren’t saying that Williams will suddenly be the team’s primary RB, but he will certainly have an increased role for the remainder of the season. In the short term, if DeShaun Foster’s elbow doesn’t allow him to play in week 12, Williams appears ready and able to carry the load.

RB Jason Wright, CLE - We aren’t sold on Wright, and he has little chance of beating out a healthy Reuben Droughns. However, Wright did well against a tough Pittsburgh run defense, and Droughns is hurting pretty bad right now. Droughns was officially a game-time decision in week 11, but it was apparent even as early as Thursday that he had little chance of playing against the Steelers. If Droughns misses any more action, the Browns should feel perfectly comfortable in turning to Wright.

WR Mark Bradley, CHI - Finally healthy, Bradley has turned in back-to-back quality outings in the last two weeks. Bernard Berrian practiced all week and appeared ready to roll in week 11, but he was only targeted twice and failed to catch a pass against the Jets. Even with Berrian healthy, we don’t see Bradley going away. It looks like both WRs (and Muhsin Muhammad) will have prominent roles in the offense.

WR Deion Branch, SEA - Branch is becoming more comfortable in the Seattle offense. With opposing defenses paying close attention to WR1 Darrell Jackson, it’s obvious that Branch will have ample opportunity to put up WR1a numbers this season.

WR Reche Caldwell, NE - Caldwell continues to be the most targeted and most consistent WR in New England. He has the confidence of Tom Brady and should be the top fantasy WR on the team for the remainder of the season.

WR Terrance Copper, NO - Copper’s production depends a great deal on the health of Marques Colston and Joe Horn. If either misses significant action, it’s pretty obvious that Copper is a nice option.

WR Ronald Curry, OAK - We are not enamored with Curry’s ability, but he is a capable NFL WR. He merits the upgrade because he’s the best option in Oakland right now. With Randy Moss and Jerry Porter extremely disgruntled, Curry is the team’s default WR1.

WR Braylon Edwards, CLE - Edwards put up huge numbers (seven catches for 137 yards on ten targets) against the Steelers, but he quietly has a nice three-game run going right now (three games with at least 100 yards or a TD). He probably won’t be 100% until next season, but it’s obvious that he is the team’s WR1.

WR Lee Evans, BUF - It has been a ho-hum season for Evans, but he exploded in week 11. Actually, he exploded in the first quarter of week 11, but the point is still the same. Evans gets the obvious upgrade after an 11-catch, 265-yard, two-TD game against the Texans.

WR Devery Henderson, NO - As with Terrance Copper, Henderson has shown the ability to produce quality stats in the Saints’ offense. In the last three weeks, Henderson has surpassed the 100-yard mark twice and has scored two TDs. The big downside here though is that Henderson needs Joe Horn or Marques Colston to miss time to be a viable fantasy option.

WR Santonio Holmes, PIT - Holmes is working on a nice string of games where he has surpassed the 50-yard mark in five of his last six outings. However, he gets the upgrade after scoring his first TD of the season against the Browns. Holmes is becoming more involved in the offense and should be quite productive over the remainder of the season.

WR Chad Johnson, CIN - It seems that week ten was no fluke for Johnson as he torched the Saints for 190 yards and a trio of TDs. Johnson has 450 yards and five scores in his last two games.

WR Reggie Wayne, IND - The torch was bound to be passed eventually, but it is now pretty apparent that Wayne has overtaken Harrison as the team's top-scoring WR. Of course there will be games where Harrison outscores Wayne, but the youngster is now the more viable fantasy option.

TE Chris Cooley, WAS - With Santana Moss on the sidelines, Cooley is the team’s only legitimate receiving threat. As such, he has put together a nice string of games and has four TDs in his last five outings. Especially encouraging is that first-time starter Jason Campbell targeted Cooley as often as Mark Brunell has this season. Despite the change in starting QB, it looks like Cooley will continue as a nice fantasy TE.

TE L.J. Smith, PHI - Smith was targeted early and often by backup QB Jeff Garcia. After Donovan McNabb went out, Garcia threw 11 passes to Smith in three quarters of action. Smith caught seven of those balls for 57 yards and a TD. It is reasonable to expect more short passes from Garcia than what was normal from McNabb, so Smith’s opportunities could easily increase going forward.

TE Ben Watson, NE - Watson continues to lead the team in targets (he is 16 ahead of the second place Reche Caldwell). After slipping a bit against the Jets, Watson returned with a nice game against the Packers and found the endzone once. He was targeted six times and caught five for 74 yards.

TD San Francisco 49ers, SF - The 49ers have been playing pretty well lately and gaining confidence after a few very poor efforts to open the season. In their last four games, they have sacked the QB nine times and forced 12 turnovers.

TD Dallas Cowboys, DAL - The Cowboys’ defense has been pretty strong lately. In their last four games, they have allowed only 15 points per game while accumulating seven sacks and forcing 11 turnovers. However, they get the upgrade for containing Peyton Manning and the Colts’ offense. They held Indianapolis to 335 yards and 14 points. They also forced Manning into two INTs and a fumble while sacking him twice. Further, the Dallas defense returned one of those INTs for a TD.

TD Miami Dolphins, MIA - After a horrible start to the season, the Miami defense has led the team to a string of recent wins. In their last three games, they have allowed only 43 points and 918 yards while getting nine sacks and nine turnovers. The defense essentially defeated the Vikings single-handedly by returning a fumble and an INT for a TD last Sunday.

TD Carolina Panthers, CAR - This is the Carolina defense that everyone expected to see this season. The Panthers struggled out of the gate, but they have been very good over their last three - allowing only 15 points and 249 yards per game. Also in that span, they have sacked the QB 12 times and forced seven turnovers.

TD New England Patriots, NE - It’s not often a team can shut out the Packers and knock out Brett Favre. The Patriots defense completely dominated the Green Bay offense and allowed only 120 total yards while forcing a turnover and accumulating four sacks. Their schedule should remain soft for the rest of the season.

Downgrades

QB Marc Bulger, STL - The Panthers’ defense has not been overpowering this season, but they pitched a shutout against the Rams. Bulger and company looked terrible without Orlando Pace anchoring the offensive line.

QB Brett Favre, GB - Knowing Favre, he’ll probably find the strength to make the start in week 12, but he couldn’t even grip the ball after the injury on Sunday. Even if he does play, we worry about his effectiveness (especially throwing the deep ball).

QB Byron Leftwich, JAX - Leftwich is undergoing ankle surgery to clear out some particles and some scar tissue, but he will likely be able to come back this season. Still, he will miss at least a few weeks.

QB Donovan McNabb, PHI - McNabb has been lost for the remainder of the season with a torn ACL.

QB Jake Plummer, DEN - There has been talk for much of the season that Plummer was close to losing his job. After his clunker of a performance (less than 50% completion percentage, less than 200 passing yards, no TDs, and an INT) against the Chargers, the rumors are swirling again. The story now is that if Plummer stumbles against the Chiefs Thursday night, then HC Mike Shanahan will turn to rookie Jay Cutler. The talking point now is that the team will have nine days to get Cutler ready to roll against Seattle.

QB Aaron Rodgers, GB - Rodgers finally saw significant action on Sunday, but he gets the obvious downgrade after suffering a broken foot. He’ll miss the remainder of the season.

QB Seneca Wallace, SEA - Matt Hasselbeck was close to returning last week, so we fully expect him to return in week 12. Wallace will hit the bench.

RB Mike Anderson, BAL - Lewis' extra carries means limited opportunities for Musa Smith or Mike Anderson. The backup RBs simply are not getting enough carries to be a viable fantasy option.

RB Tatum Bell, DEN - HC Mike Shanahan said a couple of times that he was very disappointed in himself that he believed Tatum Bell was healthy enough to play in week 10. While it’s dicey to take Shanahan at his word, he backed up that talk by deactivating Tatum Bell last Sunday. Mike Bell and Damian Nash carried the load, and Mike Bell put up some good fantasy numbers. We expect Tatum Bell to spend some time getting completely healthy before Shanahan will allow him back on the field.

RB Ladell Betts, WAS - Betts pretty much flopped running the ball against the Buccaneers. Sure, his final stat line was OK when you factor in the receptions, but Betts was outplayed by T.J. Duckett.

RB Ron Dayne, HOU - Samkon Gado and Wali Lundy are producing nice numbers, so Dayne will remain on the outside.

RB DeShaun Foster, CAR - Foster was having a nice Sunday (nine carries for 63 yards) but suffered a hyperextended elbow. He was forced to the sidelines to watch DeAngelo Williams rush 20 times for 114 yards. When Foster is healthy enough to return (which could be this week), he’ll certainly have to contend with Williams getting a bigger role in the offense.

RB Ahman Green, GB - Everything went wrong for Green Bay on Sunday. Green in particular threw up some ugly stats as he carried 13 times on 28 yards and caught one pass for zero yards. This makes consecutive bad games for Green (55 yards on 22 rushes in week 10), so we are definitely soured on the Packers’ RB.

RB Steven Jackson, STL - Jackson is still a huge part of the Rams’ offense, and his involvement in the passing game will keep him a viable fantasy option. However, the Carolina game showed how important Orlando Pace was to this offense, and Jackson had his worst game of the season.

RB Kevin Jones, DET - There is not a definitive word on Jones’ injury, but he at least has a sprained ankle. Even if he were healthy, we’d be going with a downgrade right here. Whoever is the Detroit RB will struggle with the upcoming schedule as Miami, New England, and Minnesota are all tough against the rush.

RB LaMont Jordan, OAK - Jordan tore an MCL and will miss the remainder of the season.

WR Reggie Brown, PHI - The Philadelphia WRs will suffer the most with the loss of Donovan McNabb. With Jeff Garcia under center, it is likely that the Eagles’ passing game will consist of shorter throws and more action to the RBs and TEs.

WR Isaac Bruce, STL - Bruce gets a downgrade along with the rest of the St. Louis offense. Things are just a bit off without Orlando Pace.

WR Marques Colston, NO - Colston sprained an ankle on Sunday and is reportedly day-to-day. This means he will likely be questionable for week 12, but we don’t think the team will rush him back. Joe Horn appears to be healthy while Terrance Copper and Devery Henderson have proven to be capable cogs in the Saints passing game. Even if Colston plays, the sprain could limit his effectiveness.

WR Donald Driver, GB - Just when it appeared that Driver was ready to roll up huge numbers almost every week, injury strikes Brett Favre. While Favre is obviously known for gutting up and playing, the elbow injury could limit his efficiency on deep balls. Driver will likely suffer a bit.

WR Doug Gabriel, NE - Gabriel is obviously not fully involved in the Patriots gameplan at the moment. In week ten, a lost fumble put him on the bench, and it looks like he hasn’t been able to bounce back (he was not targeted in week 11 against the Packers). Gabriel appears to now be the fourth or fifth option at WR.

WR Torry Holt, STL - Before the team’s week seven bye, Holt had 37 catches for 526 yards and seven scores (14.1 fantasy points per game). Since that off week, he has only 22 receptions for 239 yards and no TDs (6.0 fantasy points per game). That is an enormous drop in production.

WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh, CIN - We still like Houshmandzadeh, but this really is the Chad Johnson show right now. Normally, there would be enough production to go around, but when one player is pulling down three TDs a game, things aren’t normal.

WR Greg Jennings, GB - Jennings gets the downgrade simply because we are a bit worried about Brett Favre’s ability to throw the deep ball after his elbow injury. He’ll likely be on the field again this weekend, but you have to wonder about his effectiveness.

WR Randy Moss, OAK - We said last week that it appeared Moss had checked out this season, and he confirmed that during the week. Unless he decides otherwise, Moss is done this year.

WR Donte Stallworth, PHI - Stallworth is super explosive, but he needs a strong-armed QB to be fully effective. Jeff Garcia is not the deep passer that Donovan McNabb is, so Stallworth’s numbers will sag with the QB change.

TE Bo Scaife, TEN - Scaife has been the most productive TE in Tennessee this season, but he put up an 0fer against the Eagles. 0fers are automatic downgrades around these parts.

TE Jerramy Stevens, SEA - He is still plagued by inconsistency. While we expect things to improve somewhat with Matt Hasselbeck under center, Stevens simply isn’t a guy that be counted on as an every-week starter.

PK Dave Rayner, GB - Sometimes, it isn’t the fault of the kicker when a team is shut out, but Rayner missed a 44-yard FG that should be almost automatic in the NFL.

PK Mike Vanderjagt, DAL - Vanderjagt was brought into Dallas to provide accurate kicking and kick potential game-winning FGs. Against his former team, Vanderjagt missed his only two three-point attempts. That’s simply unacceptable and provides a snapshot of his performance this season (five missed FGs in 17 attempts).

TD Cincinnati Bengals, CIN - The Bengals have given up about a zillion yards lately. In their last four games, they have allowed 30 points and over 450 yards per outing. They are barely getting to the QB (less than two sacks per game) and forcing only a single turnover per contest.

TD Philadelphia Eagles, PHI - The Eagles have been playing solid defense lately (less than 16 points and 300 yards per game in their last three outings), but they aren’t creating much havoc. In that three-game span, Philadelphia has accumulated only four sacks and forced only three turnovers. With the loss of Donovan McNabb, the defense will be under even more pressure, but we don’t believe they’ll answer the bell.

TD Seattle Seahawks, SEA - While they are still getting after the QB, we have to downgrade Seattle after they gave up about a mile to Frank Gore on the ground. That was a pitiful defensive effort.